₦airaland Forum

Mcy56:
Don't conclude like that sir.
There are still doubting Thomases as well as money bags who's in the market already and still have bullion van load of cash here. They can easily pick more stocks. Jejebabaa I didn't mention you o.

Me wey be ordinary foot washer. Anyway, fund exhausted as i am 100% in the market. Lets see if person go fit buy when salary alert enter next week but as i dey so "Enu gbe".

lancee:
My oga jejebabsy is loaded for zenith and uba .. millions of shares ...with more stocks pick he can buy others

Oga mi sir, i just gentle like my name ooo, we just dey look forward to handle the kaya to our foreign brothers and co.

onegentleguy:
THE CURRENT 'TRAVAILS' OF PZ NIG PLC !!

A few days ago, I told some folks that I'd rather accumulate more UACN than PZ, given their current market prices.
Well, PZ just released its Q1 2019/2020 result with a material gap down accross all KEY revenue and earnings line.

Key highlights:

• Contracting margins(PBT & NET MARGIN in view) following the offset of stiffer competition from lower price points.
...with PAT MARGIN declining by near an alarming 436% printing a LOSS of over N1.1B in the period under review.
But for the zero tax expense(which it currently enjoys via a tax exempt relief) the loss position would've been far higher.

• Decelerating revenue(despite a relatively stable price regime) following a visible struggle for volume push.

• Though the coys QUICK RATIO of 0.6 smacks off a heathy short term liquidity stance, its CURRENT RATIO peg of 1.6 shows that something is just not right with PZ earnings drive.
...3 things are at play here:

1st off, it suggest that the company has been struggling to squeeze out earnings from its longer duration current asset play.
On that line, inventory position has been gulping up... reflective in the poor inventory turnover.
Elsewhere, the coy is also not getting any positive offset of value from its prepaid expense. Again, reflective in the worrisome A/C receivable turnover.
The struggle for sales margin(given higher inventory and lower receivables) has forced management to allow for more repayment period to debtors by over a 1/2 in the last 2 yrs.
Both lines have resulted in the difficulty with building higher net income from gross revenue.

By the way, the CURRENT RATIO peg of 1.6 means that for every N10 of current liability in its book, the company will require approx N16 of current asset to settle it.
Put differently, PZ currently expands 60% more for its near term obligations/liabilities than it earns over the same period.
A strong case for the view that the company is presently working more for its creditors and far less for its shareholders.

• The company has'nt managed to optimize cost(cost savings accruals in view).
...save for the gains from a lower admin expense by circa 2350bps(the resultant effect of lower vol drive occasioned by higher inventory from weaker sales and a possible downsizing of its workforce) all KEY cost line(CoS, opex margin) inched up.

• On the profitability/earnings front, the group lost 23k more than it did just 3 months ago.
Elsewhere, EM, ROAE, ROAA, RoIC, AsQ and AsY all pointed downwards, with some printing negative figures.

• Though the coys OHLSONS O-SCORE shows that there is no immediate worry of default(distress risk in view), its ALTMAN Z-SCORE points to a higher credit risk weighting with a far less value drive behind the current price.
To further lend credence to that, the coys PIOTROSKI F-SCORE suggest a value trap !!(value behind the price in view)

Using a combination of certain key valuation model at an assumed same relative growth rate with Q1, and adjusting for a sufficient risk premium(taking into a/c near term surrounding impact), I have FVE of N4.29(@ the point when likely reward would overtake risk)
...which translates to a sell given current market price.

This is what i'll do if I hold a position in the coy. ...especially if my strategic play with it does not fit into a long term plan.
...but that's just me.

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this analysis was drawn from PZ' latest financial print.
The interpretation therefore should only be that of a view, and NOT a recommendation.

My advice: Do well to follow ur instinct.

On a side note, certain financial variants are pointing to the plausibility that this coy(PZ) might turn out to be a take over candidate in future.(perhaps the CONTINENTAL RE or NEWREST ASL style)
It's important to note that minority shareholders hold just a minot approx 229M units out of just over 26.7% of the coys OS held with several investors.
The parent company, PZ CUSSONS UK LTD holds the balance of over 73.2% stake.

Salah.

PZ plans to delist from the Ghana stock exchange.
...Nigeria could be next.(just a NOTE to the part in bold)

https://businesspost.ng/economy/pz-cussons-announces-plan-to-delist-from-stock-exchange/

onegentleguy:
There has been a reoccurance of mergers/aquisation or takeover/buyout and follow-up delisting of some quoted companies on the NSE bourse.
Over the yrs, the likes of NBC, BAGCO, IHS, CAPPA & D'ALBERTO, OASIS INSURANCE, CRUSADER INSURANCE, 7-UP, ASHAKA CEMENT, AVON CROWN CAPS, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, DANGOTE FLOUR, CONTINENTAL RE, 1ST ALUMINIUM and most recently AG LEVENTIS to mention just a few, have either undergone a merger, aquisation or takeover/buyout. ...with the last 6 all brokered in less than a year !!
However, I think we might see a few more in the not-so-distant future.

Given the current position of their financial print(balance sheet position in view) in relation to their present equity prices, the following coys could be future candidates for a merger, aquisation or take over/buy out:

NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS, CHAMS, FO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE NIG, COURTVILLE, TRANEX(trans-nationwide express), UNIONDAC and BERGER PAINTS PLC.

Why?

1st off, is to ascertain if there are doubts surrounding the survival of these companies, so one doesn't lose their money taking(early) positions in them. And next, is to look in on their current earnings capacity, then gauge its relative sustainability over time.

On that line, keeping a tag on their OHLSONS O-SCORE(a key financial tool used to forecast if a company could go bankrupt), I see them remaining as a going concern. ...which makes them attractive candidates for 'external forces'(investors) who could bid to take them on at a cheap and turn them around.

...and using the EPP(earnings persistence approach: a valuation technique used to predict how often the earnings return of a coy will likely continue to reoccur over time after raking-off risk), I see a higher probability that any take over/buy out(should they occur) will be priced @ great premiums to their current market prices.
With some, at potential premiums of near 105% ROI !!

I particularly like the 1st 5.

On a side note, a few coys in the financial services sector, particularly the INSURANCE segment 'could also be up for grabs'... so watch that space !!

CAVEAT: This piece is only intended to look at quoted coys with chances of a merger, aquisation or takeover/buy out.
...it is NO licence to any sought of recommendation !!

My advise: Always do well to follow ur instinct.

Also NOTE this past post !!
...particularly the parts in bold.

onegentleguy:
A FRESH PERSPECTIVE ON LAFARGE WAPCO

Looking through the current financials of WAPCO, it seems that the company is now on a good path to resurgence !!
But then, someone might say; U have always criticized the coy in the past, so what has changed?
Well, the result has changed, I would simply answer !!
Good a thing, they drew their inference using the phrase; 'in the past'.
Like I always tell folks;

"I know of a man who was 'drowned in the vicissitudes of the stock market'. ...his pathways was built around the PAST than the future.
...until the PRESENT left him behind !!"
~Sinclair

With WAPCO, it will be better to adopt a present and forward looking approach than relying on the past at this time.
Why, u may ask;
3 factors are @ play here(though now in the opposite direction)

1) LAFARGE' current FX denominated loans are HEDGED.
The company learnt a bitter lesson after it had a combined FX related loss of near N37B between 2016 to 2017. ...The aftermath of which became extremely difficult for them to come off from.
What it has now done is to seek fx cover/protection for its dollar related loans from the CBN. ...which was done via a non-deliverable forward contract format.
The interpretation of this is that LAFARGE is well covered should the CBN decide to devalue the Naira later this year or anytime for that matter.

2) The company is no longer working for the banks as was the case prior to this time.
Cost line accruals from their high debt burden has been eased out by near 90% following the many delaveraging efforts from back to back rights, the divestment of their South African arm(which was loss-making for the most part) and some internal structural changes.

3) Efforts @ restructuring and innovative drives aimed @ romping up revenue(from more sales) and boosting earnings.

Any Jack will agree that these 3 factors(working against the company at the time) was mainly the drag it suffered. ...particularly in the last 8 quaters.
But with these factors now playing in favour of it, the company is now in a great position to MANAGE and OPTIMIZE COST and also boost earnings going forward.
Current financial print(H1 2019) also lends much credence to this.

The sooner we learn to align as soon as we can see through the future, the BETTER !!
From where I am standing, It does appear that it is now well with Mr WAPCO !!

Again, NOT a recommendation.

Mcy56:
Agba saw this a long time ago. Think OGG too. Now you confirmed it. It's well.

Of course I keyed into WAPCO @ N9 about the same period I put up the analysis above !!
I also recall that several folks consulted me privately then, and I advised them to ACCUMULATE.
...the coy eventually rose to N16, before the drop u see now.
It will still rise above that price !!

NOTE the part in bold from that post.
It's always best to act in time once u can spot and RELATE the thing about how REWARD overtakes RISK and vice versa !!

It is well.

onegentleguy:
Of course I keyed into WAPCO @ N9 about the same period I put up the analysis above !!
I also recall that several folks consulted me privately then, and I advised them to ACCUMULATE.
...the coy eventually rose to N16, before the drop u see now.
It will still rise above that price !!

NOTE the part in bold from that post.
It's always best to act in time once u can spot the thing about REWARD overtaking RISK !!

It is well.

Again the part in bold is why I always highlight the thing about how inherent RISK relates to feasible REWARD !!

Like I always tell folks;
"In finding the right equilibrium between RISK and REWARD(MoS with risk-return in view), the PRICE(u pay) for an asset is EVERYTHING !!"

...and hear this;
"When u see an asset of VALUE where the plausible rate of return/REWARD(MoS against potential ROI in view) has run @ a much faster pace than(@ premium to) the SUM OF its PRICE and surrounding RISK, RUN IN, because PRICE 'is ready' to chase VALUE !!"

Salah

onegentleguy:
Of course I keyed into WAPCO @ N9 about the same period I put up the analysis above !!
I also recall that several folks consulted me privately then, and I advised them to ACCUMULATE.
...the coy eventually rose to N16, before the drop u see now.
It will still rise above that price !!

NOTE the part in bold from that post.
It's always best to act in time once u can spot and RELATE the thing about how REWARD overtakes RISK !!

It is well.

twogentlesmartguy.

owolabi5:
Someone predicted #1.00 bus stop

Wonders can happen here

Watch this space!

Ha! that's too high o

ndidigood:
twogentlesmartguy.

Why not copy Cp?

@cp.Next time,learn to quote Loco stock for a prompt decode.

locodemy:
@cp.Next time,learn to quote Loco stock for a prompt decode.

if i hav mention Loco stock, how will u throw the stone u first throw

i know u will fast decode it if i attach loco to d stock. now that it has been decoded.

the stock is now officially Loco/Mpeace stock

currentprice:
if i hav mention Loco stock, how will u throw the stone u first throw

i know u will fast decode it if i attach loco to d stock. now that it has been decoded.

the stock is now officially Loco/Mpeace stock

You know I will not like to get any recommendation/pick from you especially now all my cash is thrown to the market.

I sought your opinion for many days when I offloaded Transcorp to reinvest in a stock you recommend but you didn't.

Thank God,I am on the right stocks these days.No wahala.

True true,Wapco is mpeace stock not Loco.
He is the one that debated with me that Wapco will double before Uacn If you can remember.

ALTITUDE A CHRISTIAN WHO'S TARGETING HEAVEN SHOULD ALWAYS HAVE ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-messages-bible/27#84228325

STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 20 NOV

Bulls still in control. Screening out from our watch list is very important. Every exchange has dead companies that are not worth buying or too risky. Want to avoid risk of losing your money in the market? Get our stock weekly stage analysis report.

MSCI is still in the market.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis [url]https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget
[/url]

Just negodu the hand of market makers in Flourmill.
As high as it traded yesterday, they ensured it closed back at N16.25, yet it remains on full bid.
They are waiting to move funds there after milking other stocks.
If you are still in cash (unlike me wey don cherry-pick finish), accumulate by any chance.
I remember when it was trading at N100/share.

N/B:
I hold FMN in my portfolio.

OakPearl:
Just negodu the hand of market makers in Flourmill.
As high as it traded yesterday, they ensured it closed back at N16.25, yet it remains on full bid.
They are waiting to move funds there after milking other stocks.
If you are still in cash (unlike me wey don cherry-pick finish), accumulate by any chance.
I remember when it was trading at N100/share.

N/B:
I hold FMN in my portfolio.

After the DUST, comes the rain.....

Heishere:
Ha! that's too high o

But someone quoted #5.00 IF, they win the court case, Now I think that is high.

Ignition systems are for Engines, Typical analysis shows that nature provides all information we seek, but it does not come in a well arranged manner.
Just like the hint herein.....
We owe ourselves the responsibility of statistical harmony that synergism requires to deliver our targeted amorphous ends.
This stock is street wise.....

owolabi5:
But someone quoted #5.00 IF, they win the court case, Now I think that is high.

I did!

The #5+ will depend on how much they get awarded from the court action (If they do).

Some people got tired of waiting for FCMB result and sprayed N2.10 on several thousand shares.
Time to find a higher support level.

onegentleguy:

Soon people will understand the reason for this quote;

"For this reason and a bit more(including their present technical stance), I will advise a higher portfolio weighting in ACCESS than UBA.(in view of their near mkt price, a 70-30 or 60-40 % weighting won't be a bad idea)
It's all about risk-return. ...which is where an investors likely ROI is weighed !!

On a side note; For near same reason, i'll also prefer to attach a similar weighting to ZENITH ahead of GTB and FCMB ahead of FIDELITY @ their present market prices.
...but that's just me."

https://www.booksie.com/604507-p2p-analysis-weighing-in-on-the-value-accretion-between-access-bank-uba

Soon folks will understand why we put out the post above, in the past.(NOTE the part in bold)
Perhaps some persons have seen FCMB' Q3 financial print.(currently trading for N2.10)
That result will most likely come in real good !! ...there are GOOD signs.

It is well.

DeRuggedProf:
Ignition systems are for Engines, Typical analysis shows that nature provides all information we seek, but it does not come in a well arranged manner.
Just like the hint herein.....
We owe ourselves the responsibility of statistical harmony that synergism requires to deliver our targeted amorphous ends.
This stock is street wise.....

All these grammartology ! There must be massive money in the air.
We know that Dangflour has changed name after it's change of ownership. It has also been delisted from nsem. I think i should keep watch in order to know when the new name would be listed. Any one with latest information?

FBNH, doing us proud. We catching up with UBA, after that na Access.

OakPearl:
Just negodu the hand of market makers in Flourmill.
As high as it traded yesterday, they ensured it closed back at N16.25, yet it remains on full bid.
They are waiting to move funds there after milking other stocks.
If you are still in cash (unlike me wey don cherry-pick finish), accumulate by any chance.
I remember when it was trading at N100/share.

N/B:
I hold FMN in my portfolio.

Slow and steady wins the race. The vulture is a patient bird.

Again ETI is a strong BUY @ the current mkt price !!

The stock is currently playing out the statement in italics;

"When u see an asset of VALUE where the plausible rate of return/REWARD(MoS against potential ROI in view) has run @ a much faster pace than(@ premium to) the SUM OF its PRICE and surrounding RISK, RUN IN, because PRICE 'is ready' to chase VALUE !!

That coy can well return near 130%(ROI) from the current price level.

Enough said.

onegentleguy:
Again ETI is a strong BUY @ the current mkt price !!

The stock is currently playing out the statement in italics;

"When u see an asset of VALUE where the plausible rate of return/REWARD(MoS against potential ROI in view) has run @ a much faster pace than(@ premium to) the SUM OF its PRICE and surrounding RISK, RUN IN, because PRICE 'is ready' to chase VALUE !!

That coy can well return near 130%(ROI) from the current price level.

Enough said.

Tribute to you for your pragmatic, selfless, charismatic, straightforward, direct and bold contributions. You are a leader indeed, a celebrity. God bless you.

locodemy:
You know I will not like to get any recommendation/pick from you especially now all my cash is thrown to the market.

I sought your opinion for many days when I offloaded Transcorp to reinvest in a stock you recommend but you didn't.

Thank God,I am on the right stocks these days.No wahala.

True true,Wapco is mpeace stock not Loco.
He is the one that debated with me that Wapco will double before Uacn If you can remember.

currentprice:
if i hav mention Loco stock, how will u throw the stone u first throw

i know u will fast decode it if i attach loco to d stock. now that it has been decoded.

the stock is now officially Loco/Mpeace stock

WAPCO wey no want move. If only I put the money I invested in wapco for FBNH, I for don hammer.

onegentleguy:
Again ETI is a strong BUY @ the current mkt price !!

The stock is currently playing out the statement in italics;

"When u see an asset of VALUE where the plausible rate of return/REWARD(MoS against potential ROI in view) has run @ a much faster pace than(@ premium to) the SUM OF its PRICE and surrounding RISK, RUN IN, because PRICE 'is ready' to chase VALUE !!

That coy can well return near 130%(ROI) from the current price level.

Enough said.

Ignition, Engine, Typical................

Mpeace:
WAPCO wey no want move. If only I put the money I invested in wapco for FBNH, I for don hammer.

After you take loss from Wapco run to FBNH. everything will reverse, Wapco will start rallying, FBNH will then start ranging.....

Toluway:
Tribute to you for your pragmatic, selfless, charismatic, straightforward, direct and bold contributions. You are a leader indeed, a celebrity. God bless you.

My Pleasure Sir !!
...I am humbled by ur show of encomium.
But I no be celebrity oo. Na learner I be !!

Good to have u back with us.
Regards.

DeRuggedProf:
Ignition, Engine, Typical................

Abeg help me send that meat-pie and cake along...

onegentleguy:
Again ETI is a strong BUY @ the current mkt price !!

The stock is currently playing out the statement in italics;

"When u see an asset of VALUE where the plausible rate of return/REWARD(MoS against potential ROI in view) has run @ a much faster pace than(@ premium to) the SUM OF its PRICE and surrounding RISK, RUN IN, because PRICE 'is ready' to chase VALUE !!

That coy can well return near 130%(ROI) from the current price level.

Enough said.

We are waiting for MSCI to finish selling off here like they said they were going to do for ETI. When they finish we will key in and they will come buy it from us...