₦airaland Forum

ACAN:
TIME WILL TELL

In a move that resembles that of Mr. Magic, the CBN crashed interest rate on bank deposits to the low single-digit level.
A 50million naira 30 days fixed deposit for example now attracts only a maximum of 4 percent as against an average of 10 percent as of November last year.
To achieve this fete, the CBN simply tinkered with the loan to deposit ratio for banks by moving it up. It also restricted some active players from participating in the debt market (treasury bills and bonds).
As a result, the last treasury bill auction by CBN attracted only 5.1% as against an average of 13% last year.

Advantages:
-Lower deposit rates should usher in lower lending rates from banks to manufacturers etc, which is the primary desire of the government.
-The stock market which has been in the doldrums for upwards of three years has witnessed a positive resurgence due to the inverse relationship that exists between low-interest rate and capital market. When the interest rates on deposits become unattractive, investors are then willing to take on the extra risk of putting money in the stock market for better yield.

Disadvantages:
-There is significant value erosion in putting money in the banks since the interest rate offered currently is less than the inflation rate which stands at about 12%.
- The exchange rate may come under pressure as a result of investors moving there deposited funds out of banks to buy FX.
-Foreign portfolio investment (FPI), especially in our debt market, will decrease because foreign investors will find low-interest rates unattractive for arbitrage. This will consequently decrease FX inflows into the economy.
- The bank's profit earnings in 2020 may take a significant haircut because of lower margins and depositors fleeing to other investment destinations.

Take Away:
-There is a positive confluence of opinion on CBN’s move at this time stemming from the general outcry by manufacturers and others whose businesses have
been stifled by high-interest rates.

-The CBN will continue to hope that crude oil prices remain stable or higher, else, defending the currency may become a challenge.

Finally, by playing around with the macroeconomic variables, the CBN seems to have succeeded for now in lowering the interest rate. If sustained, this can have a positive impact on the GDP growth and also bring back life into the economic value chain.

Time will tell........

https://investdataltd..com/2020/01/time-will-tell.html

Very interesting and eye-opening post

Onifa will soon go on exile though he is looking for what to lay hands upon.

locodemy:
Onifa will soon go on exile though he is looking for what to lay hands upon.

RabbiDoracle:
You no dey hear word.

And as I saw the divergence, I quickly alerted all that this isn't good. Instead, I was laughed at. I was just jejely reducing my position on the market. The main thing is to alert when you are leaving and not just to give a buy call. Also give a sell call.

Good that stocks moved high for people to bail out.

. How much high

Topson88:
Abeg if i wan sell shares using mytradebook , do i choose limit or market value? Please help a greenhorn.

Choose 'limit' so you can enter your desired price to sell.
Market value will sell for you at the available market price at that point in time.
Same thing applies to buying too.

Good Evening All!

I've been away from the bourse for close to 2 years (life things) and just came back this January. Observed so many things have happened since then and many changes.

Normally prefer to observe from the sidelines while doing my trades - helps serve as a filter. However about WAPCO, there are a few of things and a note of caution.

1. Their EPS.
Though their 2019 results up to Q3 has been very good, the rights issue increased their OS from 5.57B to about 8.6B i.e. over 50% increase so EPS as at Q3 is 128k. Several times lower than previous years.


2. Their 5 year Div yield and Div/EPS history.
Div yield has never exceeded 5% and Div/EPS never exceeded 52%. Going by that trend, say they are able to improve upon Q3 PAT & EPS by 30%, which is very ambitious, then EPS comes to about 166 and PAT to over 26B, expected Div should be about 70k. That's going by antecedents o.

3. Their new management.
They seem to be quite more prudent than previous years.

However
1. They've been known to pay Div from retained earnings, in 2018 (thank God also for the reviewed EDT law from the new Finance Bill).

2a. There's also proceeds from sale of the South African arm. I'm not an accountant, don't know if they can pay dividends from it?

2b. They may want to compensate shareholders for not paying div last financial year and pay div from retained earnings again or even pay a Div/EPS of say >80%

3. There seems to be lots of sentiments around the stock.

Still these are just speculations. The figures say div may not be as usual and enough to sustain the price above about N16 especially in the long term. So it's previous trading price range may not be attainable. It's currently N17+.

Just my thoughts o. Sure the stock price still has ways to go up in the immediate short term at least.

DeRuggedProf:
We have too many 'irresponsible' people on this forum......

In newbie's terms sir.

Welcome back @ExLaidback
Thanks for your analysis.
Experts here have done in-depth analysis on it too. Maybe you need to read some recent analysis by Onegentleguy and @Pluto09 , then come back with your inference, so we can learn more.

RabbiDoracle:


So you are believing that it will fall.

Las las, all of you are getting sense.

All of us here know that stocks do not move on straight line

Mcy56:
Welcome back @ExLaidback
Thanks for your analysis.
Experts here have done in-depth analysis on it too. Maybe you need to read some recent analysis by Onegentleguy and @Pluto09 , then come back with your inference, so we can learn more.

Thanks so much Mercy :-)

I actually read a couple which prompted me to post this, cos I noticed no one really talked about the increased OS and lower EPS, so I'm wondering is it that it doesn't really matter or... I no be expert just trying to think

ExLaidback:
Thanks so much Mercy �

I actually read a couple which prompted me to post this, cos I noticed no one really talked about the increased OS and lower EPS, so I'm wondering is it that it doesn't really matter or... I no be expert just trying to think

You did well by posting your concerns, one of the essence of this thread.
I expect my ogas to do justice to it.

Chai! Seems I'm so addicted to this thread.....
Let me come and be going before someone reminds me that the thread doesn't belong to me or that I'm an audio shareholder.

Mcy56:
Chai! Seems I'm so addicted to this thread.....
Let me come and be going before someone reminds me that the thread doesn't belong to me or that I'm an audio shareholder.

Loool. How can. Abeg ma we need you here. Please. We need your soothing effect on the members �.

locodemy:
Onifa will soon go on exile though he is looking for what to lay hands upon.

I'm spending my loot.

Mcy56:
Choose 'limit' so you can enter your desired price to sell.
Market value will sell for you at the available market price at that point in time.
Same thing applies to buying too.

Thank you ma

arduino:
AMEN!!!

hello, can i purchase some materials for an electrical project from you? mainly resistors and transistors pls.

I'm spending my loot.

Enjoy Bro!

ExLaidback:
Loool. How can. Abeg ma we need you here. Please. We need your soothing effect on the members �.

Thanks my bitL or is it sitL.
Don't mind me, I'm too rugged for such comments to get to me. Just joking and calling them out at the same time.

zeuss:
hello, can i purchase some materials for an electrical project from you? mainly resistors and transistors pls.

Out of stock.

RabbiDoracle:
You offloaded? are you not waiting for Agba's N20?

I offloaded Access. The proceeds will go to UACN (adding more)

RabbiDoracle:


I'm spending my loot.

How Sir. ...better enter market now bear is showing up. ...

ExLaidback:
Loool. How can. Abeg ma we need you here. Please. We need your soothing effect on the members �.

Long time Sir. ....being long time

Thanks for your contributions. ...we need more of this info

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/28612_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JANUARY_2020.pdf

Only goodness knows why this man is offloading
approx 100m so far.

Mcy56:
Chai! Seems I'm so addicted to this thread.....
Let me come and be going before someone reminds me that the thread doesn't belong to me or that I'm an audio shareholder.

Audio Shareholder. ...Loooooool

Please Ma, we need your continous input in this forum

ukay2:
Long time Sir. ....being long time

Thanks for your contributions. ...we need more of this info

Thanks boss/Ma'am

More profit to your folio and God bless

ExLaidback:
Thanks boss/Ma'am

More profit to your folio and God bless

Please Sir put eye on uacn and dangote cement share for us a beg.....

bigjay01:
Only goodness knows why this man is offloading
approx 100m u it's so far.

Boardroom war going on....H.Wigwe may be very angry with the boardroom and auditors. ..

bigjay01:
Only goodness knows why this man is offloading
approx 100m u it's so far.

He knows well that he will use half of the cash realised to replace his holding by the time the auditors are out of Access' sewage......

DeRuggedProf:
He knows well that he will use half of the cash realised to replace his holding by the time the auditors are out of Access' sewage......

Very true

Mcy56:
Chai! Seems I'm so addicted to this thread.....
Let me come and be going before someone reminds me that the thread doesn't belong to me or that I'm an audio shareholder.

Hahaha.
You are needed here please.

RabbiDoracle:
People said this volume was normal bullish volume. I said it isn't normal. That it was excessive.

Now see supply. Never ending. You will think the suppliers are printing shares using Chinese printing machines

I have been pondering on the bolded for quite a while during the snap bull session until I saw your post on it then, this awaken my suspicion that the bull may not be a long one and of course yours truly quickly took profit. Though I am still in Transcorp and WAPCO, but then, I may consider selling whenever I see that the signs are not favourable.

This does not mean that I will not jump into the market when the signs change, but for now, I am happy seeing my profit in morgan dashboard/bank account than in the market.

Before you go on vacation Rabbi, please where is that your basket trap

fxuser:
Access
- 2 weeks ago , price closed end of the week n10.80 (but touched weekly high 12 hence long wick above)
- last week closed at N10.80 ,a doji week
- if price closes below N10.80 at end of d week , a likely ''pull back'' expected to a support level !
- if it closes above no shaking
- asper trend: still bullish, price remains above both d 50-ema and 200ema

#JustObserving

banks
- pull backs are allowed, daily can be dramatic
-