rebekah2011:
There is nothing in my view driving Neimeth. I posted the latest figure released by the company sometimes last week. Q2 results of the company.

Yes. I read your comments.
...but me I came across an info sometimes ago about one of the big pharma acquiring the coy, only not sure of how true this is.
I mentioned this so as to drive my point home that, we can do better to know what's behind a stock's sudden behaviour rather than just dwelling on fundamentals alone.

stcool:


On this note let me risk 1,000,000 units of Japaul

If i perish I perish

*Filled

Anywhere japaul wants to go...I will follow

Oga RabbiDoracle it's not only about JP.
Of course, I always take responsibility for my actions.......but we should still know that people just air their sentimental opinions here without backing it up with any reasonable facts or figures.
Again, this is not about Japaul only, but about other stocks as well.
Sir, the question is:
Why did covid not help Meyer?
Why has it not helped GSK to over N10 despite that they even declared 55kobo dividend? Why is M &B still struggling to get to 3.50?
The point I'm trying to make is that there could be more to the rally than meets the eyes.

So in other words, Access sold some of JP assets, took their share and gave back some of the cash to JP?

Mcy56:
Oga RabbiDoracle it's not only about JP.
Of course, I always take responsibility for my actions.......but we should still know that people just air their sentimental opinions here without backing it up with any reasonable facts or figures.

Yes, I agree with you they air their opinion. But airing your opinion can't cause stock.

People have aired their opinions and we are waiting to see Zenith fall to 5. Did Zenith fall to N5?

This japaul will be responsible for many death on the nse.

naturalflow:
This japaul will be responsible for many death on the nse.

That should be in the past.

RabbiDoracle:


Madam, you seem to like these kind of penny stocks alot. They are very risky stocks. It could do you serious damage.

How can a company have a revenue of around N750m and product a profit of N40b?

You are meant to be the one adding yourself these questions?

The next question you should ask if come next year or 2 years time, is this profit sustainable?

Most of you don't know that a stock at 20kobo can be more expensive than Dangote at N140.

It is not bad-mouthing. But you failed to have asked the relevant questions.

If you have been investing in such companies and escaping before a slide in share prices doesn't mean you are a smart investor. It simply means you had been lucky.

Japaul can go higher than current price or fall back to 20kobo but don't say people are bad-mouthing. Just be responsible for your action.

Thank you Rabi for those words.. Whenever we talk about school fees here, they think we are joking. He/she that has ears, let them HEAR

naturalflow:
This japaul will be responsible for many death on the nse.

The best is risk what you can afford...That rule has never changed!

People would not just hear.

For JP it very obvious something is capitally wrong. Your other income is far more than your main activity,

The coy is better switch business. I shouted, this an example of going , going gone company.

Another one, we should be careful about is Caverton( Not rosey) at all.

I know from experience some would get trapped it is a matter of time.

Nothing in this business is as good as understanding figures not too much stories.

Let us throw sentiment apart.

Mcy56:
Oga RabbiDoracle it's not only about JP.
Of course, I always take responsibility for my actions.......but we should still know that people just air their sentimental opinions here without backing it up with any reasonable facts or figures.

RabbiDoracle:
Yes, I agree with you they air their opinion. But airing your opinion can't cause stock.

People have aired their opinions and we are waiting to see Zenith fall to 5. Did Zenith fall to N5?

Sir, the point I'm making is that there could be more to an unusual rally than just assumptions and it's not about Japaul alone.
Jaiz rallied from 40kobo to current price.
Dangflour was rallying despite poor result released then..... .by the time we knew what was behind it, the door was locked, full bids for many days.
We can do better by doing more findings rather than mere sentiments when unusual occurs.

naturalflow:
This japaul will be responsible for many death on the nse.

How?

Japaul that fell from 15 to 20kobo, did anyone die?

Just falling from 33kobo to 27 kobo, people want to die

Oando was at 250 before. Oando got to N2.

So people should know the risk they undertake.

Why do you think in safety, while climbing a highrise building you are told to use a safety harness. Inspite of the harness, there is a safety net underneath you in event you drop from that high due to failure of your harness.

That safety harness is all the due diligence you have done before buying stocks. Yet it fails. It fails in such a way that you can't stop the fall. But the safety net is there to catch you. That safety net is called DIVIDENDS.

That is why you see us, when we fall, we go dey do big boy dey go ni We still dey chop from the market whether you are up or you are down.

#Bingo

rebekah2011:
UACN now owns close to 94% of UPDC Reits. I cannot remember where I read an article that quoted this % of the shareholding. The best bet will be the UACN route.

Point of correction, UACN owns 98% of UPDC.

UPDC owns 63% of UPDC REIT.

SEC will not allow the outstanding shares of UPDC REIT to be fradulently increased by whatever means. It is a close ended mutual fund that invests in real estate and about 20% of the rental income received are invested in money market funds and FG bonds

No matter how one tries to explain, some people will be b.l.i.n.d to constructive arguments.
I've always argue some stocks here, don't know why someone will keep thinking I'm posting cos of JP alone.

RabbiDoracle:


How?

Japaul that fell from 15 to 20kobo, did anyone die?

Just falling from 33kobo to 27 kobo, people want to die

Oando was at 250 before. Oando go to N2.

So people should know the risk they undertake.

Why do you think in safety, while climbing a highrise building you are told to use a safety harness. Inspite of the harness, there is a safety net underneath you in event you drop from that high due to failure of your harness.

That safety harness is all the due diligence you have done. Yet it fails. It fails in such a way that you can't stop the fall. But the safety net is there to catch you. That safer net is called DIVIDENDS.

That is why you see us, when we fall, we go dey do big boy dey go ni We still dey chop from the market whether you are up or you are down.

#Bingo

Exactly, I don't know why Mcy dey disturb herself....

Me I don buy Zenith today and risk some with Japual...whatever NSEMPA talk e no concern me. I will follow Jegede and that N40Billion till I get my share.

onegentleguy:
There has been a reoccurance of mergers/aquisation or takeover/buyout and follow-up delisting of some quoted companies on the NSE bourse.

Over the yrs, the likes of NBC, BAGCO, IHS, CAPPA & D'ALBERTO, OASIS INSURANCE, CRUSADER INSURANCE, 7-UP, ASHAKA CEMENT, AVON CROWN CAPS, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, DANGOTE FLOUR, CONTINENTAL RE, 1ST ALUMINIUM and most recently AG LEVENTIS to mention just a few, have either undergone a merger, aquisation or takeover/buyout. ...with the last 6 all brokered in less than a year !!
However, I think we might see a few more in the not-so-distant future.

Given the current position of their financial print(balance sheet position in view) in relation to their present equity prices, the following coys could be future candidates for a merger, aquisation or take over/buy out:

NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS, CHAMS, FO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE NIG, COURTVILLE, TRANEX(trans-nationwide express), UNIONDAC, PZ and BERGER PAINTS PLC.

Why?

1st off, is to ascertain if there are doubts surrounding the survival of these companies, so one doesn't lose their money taking(early) positions in them. And next, is to look in on their current earnings capacity, then gauge its relative sustainability over time.

On that line, keeping a tag on their OHLSONS O-SCORE(a key financial tool used to forecast if a company could go bankrupt), I see them remaining as a going concern. ...which makes them attractive candidates for 'external forces'(investors) who could bid to take them on at a cheap and turn them around.

...and using the EPP(earnings persistence approach: a valuation technique used to predict how often the earnings return of a coy will likely continue to reoccur over time after raking-off risk), I see a higher probability that any take over/buy out(should they occur) will be priced @ great premiums to their current market prices.
With some, at potential premiums of near 105% ROI !!

I particularly like the 1st 5.

On a side note, a few coys in the financial services sector, particularly the INSURANCE segment 'could also be up for grabs'... so watch that space !!

CAVEAT: This piece is only intended to look at quoted coys with chances of a merger, aquisation or takeover/buy out.
...it is NO licence to any sought of recommendation !!

My advise: Always do well to follow ur instinct.

onegentleguy:


On NEIMITH, trust we remember that the company is of an international status with business/investment spread accross 4 francophone countries(the Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Liberia) aside Nigeria.

Some of their product within the pharmaceutical line of business like CIKLAVIT(used for the management of sickle cell disease), NCP and Homtamin G is now among the high selling ethical and consumer line product in the 5 African countries(including Nigeria) they currently operate.

The company also plays in the Veterinary(animal-related) business space with several product brands spread accross that chain.

Looking at their last 3 financial print(YE 2018 to Q3 2019 in view) though appears to be poor, it gave some insight on the drive for better growth margin.
...and when u benchmark the coys sorrounding RISK to the match of PRICE and FVE, u would see that feasible REWARD has since overtaking it(risk-return from MoS peg in view)
Like I always tell folks;

When u see a bad result reveal clear signs of accelerating REWARD compared to decelerating surrounding RISK and feasible MoS return runs ahead of the match of price against FVE, run in and ask questions later !!
Alternatively, when u see a good result reveal signs of decelerating REWARD when benchmarked with surrounding risk while price runs faster than the match of feasible MoS return against FVE, run with ur two legs touching ur head !!

Bottom line: The stock is a buy @ current mkt price.

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...following ur instinct should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

onegentleguy:
NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS might soon go on full bid !!
...it has now returned approx 20% btw yesterday and today riding from 40k to 48k at the moment.
We called for a BUY on this 'guy' when it was still trading for 38k.

The feasible REWARD pegged side by side with the decelerating surrounding RISK(tax incentives, cost drawdown and plausible growth margin in view) paints of an asset with an underpriced stance.

NOTE: NOT a buy recommendation. ...following ur instinct should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well.

onegentleguy:


Ok naw.
But before u'll begin to see what we've seeing, NEIMITH may have doubled in price !!
Sure u are looking at some lines in the result and seeing it as 'terrible', but hear this;

When u see a bad result reveal clear signs of accelerating REWARD compared to decelerating surrounding RISK and feasible MoS return runs ahead of the match of price against FVE, run in and ask questions later !!
Alternatively, when u see a good result reveal signs of decelerating REWARD when benchmarked with surrounding risk while price runs faster than the match of feasible MoS return against FVE, run with ur two legs touching ur head !!

The 1st line was how I spotted the VALUE in FIDSON HEALTHCARE back then @ less N1 before the coy returned over 690% gain pushing up to N7 over time !!(though I sold before that price)
...and also why I recently advised a buy in UACN, DANGOTE SUGAR and ETI.
It's also how I spotted the value drive with most troubled coys in the past including WEMA @ 50k(at the time) before the ride up to N1.04(with over 100% ROI)
...sure it will repeat that run and possibly exceed it.

The 2nd line was also how we spotted and advised a sell on WAPCO @ over N50, NB PLC @ over N107, and IB PLC @ near N40 back then.
...and most recently, a sell in OANDO and TOTAL PLC.

It is well.

Mcy56:
I hope this forum is not fast losing out on value to sentiments in terms of quality information.
No wonder we are losing the gurus.....because if they research and come out with their findings self, we are ready to attack them.
In the past people would have been curious about what is happening in JP and Neimeth.....and would have commenced research so that members can benefit should there be goodies brewing.

Till now, no one can tell us what is driving Neimeth....it's only prediction comes true.

Anyway, I rest my case.

On NEIMETH, I personally did a couple of analysis here and advised a BUY at the time the coy was selling for btw 38-39k. ...U may wish to go back to my past posts, some of which I also revisited recently.(see 4 amongst many above)
Apart from the thing about inherent REWARD and how surrounding RISK had at the time made a mockery of it, I also highlighted the value proposition in the coy.
Some persons argued about it(they could only see the bad side of the result) even after I highlighted the last post above. ...that's the same way some are also now seeing only the bad side of the report cards of UACN and WAPCO.

Apparently, they do not understand how the 5 of; POINT OF INFLECTION, GROWTH MARGIN, CASH FLOW POSITION, SURROUNDING RISK and FEASIBLE REWARD(MoS peg in view) relate to each other.

Folks should look through that 1st post above and do their homework well. ...not when a coy like say PZ, FO or CHAMS doubles in price, they'll say they were taken unawares. UNIONDAC has already proposed an MTO @ 75% premium to mkt, while some others(except for FO) have returned great gains.

Besides, I also wrote 2 articles on this.
...the problem is that people don't act IN TIME !!

As for JAPAUL OIL & GAS, well, NO comment !!

It is well.

Only dine with the devil with long knife

RabbiDoracle:


How?

Japaul that fell from 15 to 20kobo, did anyone die?

Just falling from 33kobo to 27 kobo, people want to die

Oando was at 250 before. Oando got to N2.

So people should know the risk they undertake.

Why do you think in safety, while climbing a highrise building you are told to use a safety harness. Inspite of the harness, there is a safety net underneath you in event you drop from that high due to failure of your harness.

That safety harness is all the due diligence you have done before buying stocks. Yet it fails. It fails in such a way that you can't stop the fall. But the safety net is there to catch you. That safety net is called DIVIDENDS.

That is why you see us, when we fall, we go dey do big boy dey go ni We still dey chop from the market whether you are up or you are down.

#Bingo

OBAGADAFFI:



Is it not about negative sentiment.

JAPAULOIL is not a stable company.

Very stable for speculation.

RabbiDoracle:


Everyone knows Neimeth is in the pharmaceutical sector and covid19 news is helping the sector.

Have you been in a stock that tied down your funds for more than 5 years? You can't exit because the stock hardly sells more than 200K units in a day. And that is how it will be selling lower till it hit 20kobo.

Examples are Japaul, Insurance stocks etc.

That is why no matter the result they release, people are not interested to analyze it. Because they lost money.

So if you must be a good investor, keep your emotions aside and look at facts.

What if the stock starts full bid inspite of the badmouthing? What will you say again?

I noticed that most people look at the number of units their money can buy and so they delve into buying stocks like Japaul and 20kobo insurance. The challenge you will have is selling such stocks. If you have millions of it, you can only sell in a very full bid.

Unlike some sectors where there is transaction at any price.

Nice explanation, that's why I don't jealous those in such vehicle when they gain 100%, because just #10 million can push the stock to 50 %. Imagine buy 10 million unit of shares with #2 million, sending it on full offer for 5 days, that is 50%, but once the fuel finishes, to jump out with that 50% gain may ended up trapping both your gain and capital at car park with no bail in sight.

Sometimes the trapped investors will push the company share price small hand, and novice will jump in to bail them out, only for the bailers to be trapped.

Also, I only pity the novice when they are trapped. Sound fundamental stock still remain the answer.

I am begining to see your post in satire mode

emmanuelewumi:



Very stable for speculation.

sellydion:
People would not just hear.

For JP it very obvious something is capitally wrong. Your other income is far more than your main activity,

The coy is better switch business. I shouted, this an example of going , going gone company.

Another one, we should be careful about is Caverton( Not rosey) at all.

I know from experience some would get trapped it is a matter of time.

Nothing in this business is as good as understanding figures not too much stories.

Let us throw sentiment apart.

I do not have Caverton stock and don't intend to have.

However, I see nothing wrong with the company.

The company services oil and gas industries.

You no fit use canoe go production platform o. You need a chopper. You need other ancillary services which they provide to the IOCs.

If you are not in the sector, you won't understand. It is only competition from like companies (onshore /offshore logistics) that can destroy Caverton. Aside that, nothing.

UACN going for full bid

PETERiCHY:


Bear in mind UACN core investor THEMIS CAPITAL increased their holdings by 15.7m units last Feb at an average price of N10.

So you won't tell me at all at all
UACN won't rally to N12 junction before the UNBUNDLING EXERCISE.

"If you sleep they will carry your Gun"

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

UACN heading to FJLL BID

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

RabbiDoracle:


I do not have Caverton stock and don't intend to have.

However, I see nothing wrong with the company.

The company services oil and gas industries.

You no fit use canoe go production platform o. You need a chopper. You need other ancillary services which they provide to the IOCs.

If you are not in the sector, you won't understand. It is only competition from like companies (onshore /offshore logistics) that can destroy Caverton. Aside that, nothing.

The current government favours them. Change of government may likely affect them or may not, if they are still in good terms with the new government cabals, but if not, sorry will be their next visitor.

Mcy56:

Sir, the point I'm making is that there could be more to an unusual rally than just assumptions and it's not about Japaul alone.
Jaiz rallied from 40kobo to current price.
Dangflour was rallying despite poor result released then..m .by the time we knew what was behind it, the door was locked, full bids for many days.
We can do better by doing more findings rather than mere sentiments when unusual occurs.

Why you dey break your head on what is causing a rally in Japaul?

There were many companies on NSE that have good results that you don't even need to start breaking your head on. You will simply buy these companies.

Like I said, most people see themselves as investors in NSE when they have like 1m units of a 20kobo stocks. This should not be so. Once may want to so a short cut in a 20kobo stock and get stuck for the next 5 years.

Ask those who have universal insurance in their portfolios. It may have been there since 2008. We are talking about 12 years. Even at 20kobo, no single bid.

At thar point, you will understand that a stock at 20kobo can be very expensive than Nestle at N1,000. Because Nestle you can buy at N1,000 and sell at N1,100. But this one, no single bid once you are trapped.

PETERiCHY:


UACN heading to FJLL BID

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

We securing the bag...Do me like DF that was my best last year

Yea, I am in the sector. Currently the company has issued a caution.
Liability of the company is getting to a level I am not comfortable with.
Check the financials. I tried to avoid companies in oil and gas sector with attendant risks.
The sector can make and mar your investment easily.

RabbiDoracle:


I do not have Caverton stock and don't intend to have.

However, I see nothing wrong with the company.

The company services oil and gas industries.

You no fit use canoe go production platform o. You need a chopper. You need other ancillary services which they provide to the IOCs.

If you are not in the sector, you won't understand. It is only competition from like companies (onshore /offshore logistics) that can destroy Caverton. Aside that, nothing.

Mcy56:

Not disputing that.
We should however try to know the rationale behind the profit declared instead.
We should seek for more info on what's happening, what informs the sudden profitability status, is anything brewing in terms of acquisition, sell off, etc.
It will help us much better than just bad-mouthing a stock.
Diamond was not a far fetched example. Dangflour too.

Audio Profit.

Pa Emma and others have clarified the source of that Audio profit.

rationalmind:


There's a way to trade stocks like Japaul

We buy with money we don't need (say 200k) everytime it gets to car park(20k) and sell everytime it hits 24k.

Anyone who did this last year would have made 40% return

For those who can afford to risk more money, the more the profit

"He who has ears let him hear what the spirit sayeth unto the churches."

Bargain hunters are waiting again at 20k

naturalflow:
This japaul will be responsible for many death on the nse.

If people don't die when NB, Oando, Guinness, FO, First bank, GTB, Zenith, stanbic, fcmb, Unilever, PZ, etc fell from skyscraper, then Japaul shouldn't and wouldn't be responsible for any death.

RabbiDoracle:


Everyone knows Neimeth is in the pharmaceutical sector and covid19 news is helping the sector.

Have you been in a stock that tied down your funds for more than 5 years? You can't exit because the stock hardly sells more than 200K units in a day. And that is how it will be selling lower till it hit 20kobo.

Examples are Japaul, Insurance stocks etc.

That is why no matter the result they release, people are not interested to analyze it. Because they lost money.

So if you must be a good investor, keep your emotions aside and look at facts.

What if the stock starts full bid inspite of the badmouthing? What will you say again?

I noticed that most people look at the number of units their money can buy and so they delve into buying stocks like Japaul and 20kobo insurance. The challenge you will have is selling such stocks. If you have millions of it, you can only sell in a very full bid.

Unlike some sectors where there is transaction at any price.

On NEIMETH, add that part in bold to the added benefits from tax incentives, QE support, cost drawdown and plausible growth margin in view, and u can see what some persons failed to see then.

We highlighted these things on many occasions here... https://www.booksie.com/618814-alarm-bell-in-nigeria-between-fear-risk-and-opportunity-

Well, the rest is history !!

Chibuking81:

The current government favours them. Change of government may likely affect them or may not, if they are still in good terms with the new government cabals, but if not, sorry will be their next visitor.

How. Over 90% of their revenue is from the private sector.