nna777:
Aviation industry here is the most hit. NACHO has been stylishly offloading since last week while propping up prices.

Dividend hunters should be careful. Upon the 30k dividend, people are still bidding lower. Keep monitoring till qualification day.

As qualification day is tomorrow, We might likely see march low (intra day). For those interested.

nna777:


As qualification day is tomorrow, We might likely see march low. For those interested.

It is after markdown date (on 1st July 2020) that I will call out Meshpips and we will compare notes again on what we said about NAHCO.

After markdown, expect full offer then March low will be reached.

Bjrokenhear003:
Don’t know what to do

Bought dangote cement at 143 for 3257shares thinking I got a good deal After estimating from its eps that the market shares will grow after dangote buys back its shares.. but I’m left in a limbo now

I don’t want to panic sell but I’m scared that dangote might crash further

Hold current units,as long as you,are in it for the long term,if it crashes further,that makes it juicier, just average down systematically.Even at current price that's a div yield of 12.5% which is still cool.A share buy back is a strong catalyst that should not be overlooked o.Happy investing

smitten99:

Abeg whats happening here saw the stock kept dancing around 1200 and 1250 settling at 1205
Is the AGM going to see the price drop just like others like DangCem?
I am thinking of cashing out but greed is pushing me to stay in

Any tips elders?

Nestle that has not even started

Hello house, please is anyone with info on JBerger bonus?

Thanks in advance.

Umargarr:
Hello house, please is anyone with info on JBerger bonus?

Thanks in advance.

I never even see the dividend sef

Heishere:


Thanks boss. I will appreciate that.

...Check my Daily Review of the market on Youtube. I discussed AIICO (and 5 most active stocks today) at end of the video, take a look if it can be helpful, however, sections analysis is good to look at as well - Best Of Luck


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIFWqIq6M4E

gold360:
Please I've not collected loan before, I am asking for your advice.

A loan firm offers me a loan of N708,508

Monthly repayment:
N26,330.70
Will be Deducted from monthly salary. For 3 years

So I will be paying back N947,880

While The loan is N708,508

A difference or interest I am paying back is N239,372.

Please do you people consider this fair?

Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank/loan firm today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, would that N708,508 u'll get today really worth paying back N947,880 in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need to estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the firm at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its truly a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
Future value FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880/[(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3
...which should simplify as approx N667,505

So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the firm is offering u an approx N41,000 more than(i.e 708,508 - 667,505) the actual value of what u should naturally get, based on current economic realities.(raking-off value eroding inflationary risk)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.
But we still can't draw a conclusion from this alone.

Now let's dig a little more...

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the firm(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period? ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate, but this time, it'll be with a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.

Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding, FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%, which is a generous/best case scenario. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period expanded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the Euler's constant.
Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1)]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur monthly salary cashflow of N23,330.70 @ the best(6%) interest rate can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than(i.e 947,880 - 917945) what u would've paid the bank at maturity should u decide to go for the loan.
If it were more, then investing the money(from ur salary deductions) urself would've been the way to go, but since its less, it simply means u would derive less margin(value) from saving/investing ur salary inflow than u would from the loan.

Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...so YES, its a fair deal.
JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE LOAN FIRM my dear !!

NOTE: Ensure u take ur time to read through the T&C of the loan agreement before appending ur signature. Most financial bodies will often include "hidden" clauses that infer additional interest-bearing charges, which could potentially mean that u'll actually have to pay more than that FV peg of N947,880.
If possible, seek the guidance of a reputable investment banker/adviser and/or lawyer/solicitor to help demystify any agreement in context, before executing any deal. ...this is VERY IMPORTANT !!
Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

Hope this helps.

stcool:


A lot of cross deals happened this month...interests in board position for the 3 companies. Even REIT that hardly trades 10,000 units did a 1.1M cross deal today

If you bought hold...Target is N12 and above + free UACPROP & REIT

Even u ur eyes don begin clear small small !!

I love that man Mr TIME !! ...for he always has a way of setting matters straight before putting them in their right perspective.

onegentleguy:


SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the bank at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880[1/(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3...
which should simplify as approx N667,505
So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the bank is offering u approx N41,000 more than the actual value.(i.e 708,508 - 667,505)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the bank(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period. ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate but this time, it'll be a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.
Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period compounded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the euler's constant.

Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur N23,330.70 @ 6% interested can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than what u would've paid the bank at maturity of the loan.(947,880 - 917945).
Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE BANK !!

Hopes this helps.

Oga are you a financial analyst by profession.

onegentleguy:


Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of the TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the bank at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
Future value, FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880[1/(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3...
which should simplify as approx N667,505
So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the bank is offering u approx N41,000 more than the actual value of what u would naturally get elsewhere based on current economic realities.(i.e 708,508 - 667,505)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the bank(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period. ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate, but this time, it'll be a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.
Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period compounded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the Euler's constant.

Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur N23,330.70 @ 6% interest can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than what u would've paid the bank at maturity should u decide to go for the loan.(947,880 - 917945).
Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE BANK my dear !!

Hopes this helps.

OGG always has answers. Kudos chief. You are in the financial/investment sector.

onegentleguy:


Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of the TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank/loan firm today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the firm at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its truly a worthy move.

...

Reminds me of ENG 212 (Engineering Economics.) @ FUTO 30yrs ago

RabbiDoracle:



It is after markdown date (on 1st July 2020) that I will call out Meshpips and we will compare notes again on what we said about NAHCO.

After markdown, expect full offer then March low will be reached.

I will be waiting!

Justcul:
@Emmanuelewumi, please can you shine light on Flourmill fundamentally? i will greatly appreciate it sir.
@Fxuser, what do you think is the best entry point in Flourmill based on Technical? Thanks

clear support

yet to weeks after its highest weekly close at 23.50 (yr highs i think) , its continues to pull back , let it find support !

DeRuggedProf:
It's well...

loll village pipu get assoc ??

PETERiCHY:


BLAKELEY LLP a core INVESTOR in UACN

Sold 10m units on April 24th 2020
Sold 10m units on May 11th 2020
Sold 15m units on May 12th 2020
Sold 28m units on May 15rh 2020
Sold 40m units on June 17th 2020

Making it a total of 103million units of UACN BLAKELEY LLP sold within the last 3months at an average price of N6.60k.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

- willing seller met a more willing buyer ! loll
(last week close = bullish close with higher weekly opening shows dominant bias )

onegentleguy:



Even u ur eyes don begin clear small small !!

I love that man Mr TIME !! ...for he always has a way of setting matters straight before putting them in their right perspective.

onegentleguy:


Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of the TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank/loan firm today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the firm at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its truly a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
Future value FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880[1/(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3...
which should simplify as approx N667,505
So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the firm is offering u approx N41,000 more than the actual value of what u would naturally get elsewhere based on current economic realities.(i.e 708,508 - 667,505)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the firm(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period? ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate, but this time, it'll be a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.
Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period expanded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the Euler's constant.
Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur monthly salary cashflow of N23,330.70 @ 6% interest can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than what u would've paid the bank at maturity should u decide to go for the loan.(i.e 947,880 - 917945).

Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...so YES, its a fair deal.
JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE LOAN FIRM my dear !!

NOTE: Ensure u take ur time to read through the T&C of the loan agreement before appending ur signature. Most financial bodies will often include "hidden" clauses that infer additional interest-bearing charges, which could potentially mean that u will actually have to pay more than that FV peg of N947,880.
If possible, seek the guidance of a reputable investment banker/adviser and/or lawyer/solicitor to help demystify any agreementin context before executing any deal. ...this is VERY IMPORTANT !!
Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

Hopes this helps.

Nice calculation.

I also noticed that with 12.4% inflation rate from scenario one, #708,508 received today will be worth 708,508 × (1 - 0.124)^3 = #476,274 (in today's money) in 3 years time . From the point of wealth preservation, if I am correct, unless the money is yielding more than 12.4% annually it will end up losing value in the next 3 years.

An then, u also add the original loan to it, and it becomes obvious that atleast 23% yearly is needed to maintain breakeven.

I never really understood this inflation thing sha.

onegentleguy:


And more to why NEIMETH needed to reprise a little downwards is because the combination of surrounding risk and current mkt price now leaves less room for reward in view of valuation.(MoS peg in view)
Today's closing price of N2.32 is a near 27% premium from my FVE of N1.70(using a mix of appropriate valuation model and assuming zero risk)

So fundamentally, PRICE has run ahead of REWARD and needs to come down.

On TA;
RSI had since moved above the overbought line(peg @ 70)
My check also confirmed that the 9-day EMA also moved above the mean line suggesting the possibility of a pullback.
However, MACD still supports an overall bullish posture post correction. ...so price may not drop so low. Am thinking of a drop to a range btw 1.40-1.71 before another short rise.
Other TA Ogas might wish to add to this.

Congratulations to all those who made some returns from playing the stock !!

Selah

onegentleguy:


And this too... noting the part in bold.
Price already below the lower band, "which is not a bad thing"

Selah

Now that Mr NEIMETH has restarted its full bid move, nobody is talking again. The stock has been on full bid for 4 days delivering maximum day to day gains.
...yet NO one is calling it Mr P & D anymore.

Well, those who headed the call above and re-entered below the lower price band should be smiling on 40% return by now.(see 1st post above)
The 2nd post above was a buy signal for those who understood the "not a bad thing" part of the statement... at the time the coy dropped below the 1.40 lower band to 1.20+.
Which was a juicy entry peg for those wishing to join in a 2nd rise.

Those in should take up their reward as it suits them.(considering their personality, investment horizon and goal)

It is well.

onegentleguy:



Now that Mr NEIMETH has restarted its full bid move, nobody is talking again. The stock has been on full bid for 4 days delivering maximum day to day gains.
...yet NO one is calling it Mr P & D anymore.

Well, those who headed the call above and re-entered below the lower price band should be smiling on 40% return by now.(see 1st post above)
The 2nd post above was a buy signal for those who understood the "not a bad thing" part of the statement. ...at the time the coy dropped below the 1.40 lower band to 1.20+. ...which was a juicy entry peg for those wishing to join in a 2nd rise.

Those in should take up their reward as it suits them.(considering their personality, investment horizon and goal)

It is well.

And how much is currently moving the price?

Why not tell us that first.

GonFreecss1:


And how much is currently moving the price?

Why not tell us that first.

You mean volume wise?

More Sterling below 1.25 loaded

My second jackpot after UACN

ositadima1:


You mean volume wise?

Yep. The current rise. Let him multiply units sold by the value in naira and tell us.

I still stand by the fact that it is pump and dump.

GonFreecss1:


And how much is currently moving the price?

Why not tell us that first.

Same 100K block volume that moves other stocks like Nestle.

RabbiDoracle:


Same 100K block volume that moves other stocks like Nestle.

Lool! Thank you sir!

100,000 blocks of Nestle is what again? Over a 100 million naira...

100,000 blocks of Neimeth is what again? How many people here can “Key” into this without being a greater fool?

RabbiDoracle:


Same 100K block volume that moves other stocks like Nestle.

Why u dey bother urself naw?
...abeg leave @ GonFreecss1.
Lets just agree to his view. ...NEIMETH is a P & D coy.

He is RIGHT !!

onegentleguy:


Why u dey bother urself naw?
...abeg leave @ GonFreecss1.
Lets just agree to his view. ...NEIMETH is a P & D coy.

He is RIGHT !!

In a way he is right, one below average investor can single handedly move the market. It is harder to do with NESTLE.

@ stcool,your #2 fidelity is now our prey at 1.71-1.75.

One guy just do gra gra early morning to buy 2m units at 1.77/1.78 and we decided to park below that price.we are almost done.

Expect your ministry to move forward onwards.

locodemy:
@ stcool,your #2 fidelity is now our prey at 1.71-1.75.

One guy just do gra gra early morning to buy 2m units at 1.77/1.78 and we decided to park below that price.we are almost done.

Expect your ministry to move forward onwards.

I don put my fidelity on hold..I need substantial unit of Sterling at a good bargain before I resume fidelity

ositadima1:


In a way he is right, one below average investor can single handedly move the market. It is harder to do with NESTLE.

NO its not "in a way"... he is totally correct. NEIMETH is nothing but a bunch of P & D coy.
So both of u are RIGHT my dear !!

It is well.

I don’t want to believe anyone here will buy a liquid ZenithBank at 100 naira at the same fundamentals as now because Zenith is ready to sell face masks or something.

Not to talk of an illiquid asset, that a couple of thousands will move down or up.

If you like do all the Jacobian transformations or Laplace transformations you know. It doesn’t change what it is.

stcool:


I don put my fidelity on hold..I need substantial unit of Sterling at a good bargain before I resume fidelity

You can buy more fidelity now to average down else you will have no other option than to exit with us at that your #2 junction.

After today,we will not allow the price to sell below this 1.71-75 you are seeing now.

Cc: chibuking