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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by talk2me2: 9:38pm On Jul 19, 2020
DrAwo:


Apologies for replying late...

In this model, we assume one buys 1million units of Zenith bank during their IPO in 2004 at N10.90.

All dividends are reinvested on 01/04 to buy zenith bank shares. I however could not get historic prices between 2005 - 2008. Hence we assume that it is bought at N20/share for those years (which is quite generous)...
I remembered that the big banks in Nigeria (Intercontinental, Zenith, FBN, etc) traded within the range or N50 - N65 from 2007 to 2008 before the 2008 economic crisis

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by talk2me2: 10:06pm On Jul 19, 2020
emmanuelewumi:



What will you say about those who bought land banana Island in 2010 at N800 million,, who are currently looking for buyer for the same land at N600 million in 2020.


That same N800 invested in Zenith bank shares and dividends reinvested would have grown to N2.67 billion in 2020
We were not comparing real estate investment and stock Investment, rather we were comparing very along term investment on the NSE and short / mid term (or selling when you see your profit) NSE investment style.

Besides, my major concern was that Zenith bank is one of those companies on NSE that can be said to have performed better than others during the period under review, yet their case is like that. What about those ones that did not fair so well during the period, how will their own data be if they are to be analyzed?

8 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tvegas(m): 10:29pm On Jul 19, 2020
bigjay01:


Gbam! A few of us still have the battle scars from the fight for CHAMS PP in 2007/8. How far with CHAMS today?
The hustle was real in those years. I think chams was even oversubscribed as some funds were returned . What of Food concepts, Geofluid, IAA, Universal , Union bank properties and so many private placement that failed?. In short for every 1 private placement that came out good, 10 had failed.

My summation of this market is that whether you go long term or short term . Dont sleep with your 2 eyes closed. As a long term investor book profit from time to time and move those funds to other classes of investment like bonds and real estate. How does one explain Zenith selling for N11 in 2010 and still sold for N11 in 2020?. Are we growing backward?

If we follow the patterns of blue chip stocks on the NYSE Zenith should be ranging between N25 year low and N45 year high for the past 5 years. So many things on the NSE beats commonsense.

18 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Lion123: 12:27am On Jul 20, 2020
Tvegas:
The hustle was real in those years. I think chams was even oversubscribed as some funds were returned . What of Food concepts, Geofluid, IAA, Universal , Union bank properties and so many private placement that failed?. In short for every 1 private placement that came out good, 10 had failed.

My summation of this market is that whether you go long term or short term . Dont sleep with your 2 eyes closed. As a long term investor book profit from time to time and move those funds to other classes of investment like bonds and real estate. How does one explain Zenith selling for N11 in 2010 and still sold for N11 in 2020?. Are we growing backward?

If we follow the patterns of blue chip stocks on the NYSE Zenith should be ranging between N25 year low and N45 year high for the past 5 years. So many things on the NSE beats commonsense.

Many things kn the NSE truly beat commonsense. Hiw banks like Gtbank and Zenith can be trading at a PE of 3 and 2.5 is beyond me. Worst case scenario should be PE of 6+.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 12:48am On Jul 20, 2020
Interesting discussions going on so far......


I'm still a firm believer of long term investment in the stock market regardless

Everyone has their viewpoints

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 12:51am On Jul 20, 2020
Bjrokenhear003:


The stock market is not a funny place, I was thinking about my own investment and if only I put my 1m in a business that generates 12-15% monthly, in two years I would have gotten investors I will sell my shares at a higher price and expand. looking at mtn financials, started business with only 407m, only the first investors enjoyed, now us is at the mercy of the market


A business that generates 12% monthly?

That's a > 144% return annually

What kind of business in today's Nigeria give such returns?

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 12:52am On Jul 20, 2020
emmanuelewumi:



Pioneer Investors who invested N1 million about 20 years ago are earning dividends of about N40 million.

MTN was not ready to be listed, those of us who bought on the floor bought at a premium.
Just as we have some big guys who currently have shares in Dangote Refinery, by the time the company will be listed we will be buying at a premium

Care to share more light on the bolded?

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 1:01am On Jul 20, 2020
Ehuatamuigunisi:


Man your on point.
I reached this conclusion a long time ago. Several years ago, flourmill was ranging 80-100 naira per share, compare that with the current price of 17 naira. Long term investment in NSE is bad investment. Now in NSE, my long term investment is 8 - 12 months, midterm is 2 - 4 months and short term is 1 day - 30 days. Once set price target is met, i sell and wait for another opportunity.

That's interesting


I think the leadership crisis we have in Nigeria (I mean we have a buffoon with no economic acumen steering the affairs of the country) has played no small part in the way the market has been going in recent years.

A change in leadership and policies/strategies will GUARANTEE a rebound in our financial markets


Those FPI guys have zero faith in our government and its policies

I have had discussions here and there and it's the general sentiment

And local participation in our markets is abysmal.

Long story short

We need a turnaround in policies in Nigeria

That will go a LONG WAY in making our markets more robust.

7 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Harvestock01(m): 4:10am On Jul 20, 2020
DexterousOne:



A business that generates 12% monthly?

That's a > 144% return annually

What kind of business in today's Nigeria give such returns?

MMM still does.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 4:25am On Jul 20, 2020
talk2me2:
We were not comparing real estate investment and stock Investment, rather we were comparing very along term investment on the NSE and short / mid term (or selling when you see your profit) NSE investment style.

Besides, my major concern was that Zenith bank is one of those companies on NSE that can be said to have performed better than others during the period under review, yet their case is like that. What about those ones that did not fair so well during the period, how will their own data be if they are to be analyzed?


Zenith bank is not one of the best in the last 10 years. In fact none in the banking sector. If you are looking for one of best stocks that beat inflation and devaluation in the last 10 years. You consider APR and United Capital.

N9 million invested in the right offer IPO of United Capital in 2013 has received a total dividend of N22 million and currently worth N27 million

N12 million invested in the right offer IPO of APR in 2013 has received a total dividend of N32 million and worth N40 million.


For Zenith bank N10.9 million invested in 1 million units during the IPO in 2004 grew to 2.34 million units due to bonuses. The shares are currently worth N36.5 million in the market, a total dividend of over N45 million received over the years. Total return of N81.5 million.

A quiet company like Okomu Oil gave a better returns in the last 15 years than all the companies in the banking sector

15 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 4:39am On Jul 20, 2020
DexterousOne:


Care to share more light on the bolded?


The pioneer Investors sold part of their holdings to us at a huge profit.

If not for FGN and NCC, I don't think MTN was ready to list their shares on NSE.

I learnt it was one of the conditions given by the government, when the company had issues with NCC and was slammed with a huge fine.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 4:45am On Jul 20, 2020
Bjrokenhear003:


The stock market is not a funny place, I was thinking about my own investment and if only I put my 1m in a business that generates 12-15% monthly, in two years I would have gotten investors I will sell my shares at a higher price and expand. looking at mtn financials, started business with only 407m, only the first investors enjoyed, now us is at the mercy of the market

It will be difficult to generate 12% every month, but it is possible for the business to grow at that rate.

Telecoms was a growth sector in Nigeria about 20 years ago.

MTN had no customer, no revenue and no profit about 20 years ago. Now the company has about 40 million customers or thereabout, almost N1 Trillion revenue and about N200 billion profit after tax
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by jewery(m): 4:54am On Jul 20, 2020
*Registration Is Free✅*

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Or WhatsApp https:///message/5UWYKQ7IP42EP1
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 5:39am On Jul 20, 2020
Tvegas:
The hustle was real in those years. I think chams was even oversubscribed as some funds were returned . What of Food concepts, Geofluid, IAA, Universal , Union bank properties and so many private placement that failed?. In short for every 1 private placement that came out good, 10 had failed.

My summation of this market is that whether you go long term or short term . Dont sleep with your 2 eyes closed. As a long term investor book profit from time to time and move those funds to other classes of investment like bonds and real estate. How does one explain Zenith selling for N11 in 2010 and still sold for N11 in 2020?. Are we growing backward?

If we follow the patterns of blue chip stocks on the NYSE Zenith should be ranging between N25 year low and N45 year high for the past 5 years. So many things on the NSE beats commonsense.

There is time for everything.

Until we understand this, we will keep losing money.

As market trades, you try to understand what it is doing. But many of us don't do this.

I bought Zenith Public offer in 2004 at 10.90. 16 years later, I bought Zenith at 10.70 on the open market grin grin

I have bought and sold Zenith many times within that 16 years and I am on board again.

There is time for harvest. When it is time for harvest, don't leave your crop unattended.

Monitor the cycles in the market. Market has cycles. Market talks to us, but we hardly listen.

24 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 5:40am On Jul 20, 2020
Lion123:


Many things kn the NSE truly beat commonsense. Hiw banks like Gtbank and Zenith can be trading at a PE of 3 and 2.5 is beyond me. Worst case scenario should be PE of 6+.

It is a frontier/EM market. So it is cyclical and predictable.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 5:51am On Jul 20, 2020
DexterousOne:


That's interesting


I think the leadership crisis we have in Nigeria (I mean we have a buffoon with no economic acumen steering the affairs of the country) has played no small part in the way the market has been going in recent years.

A change in leadership and policies/strategies will GUARANTEE a rebound in our financial markets


Those FPI guys have zero faith in our government and its policies

I have had discussions here and there and it's the general sentiment

And local participation in our markets is abysmal.

Long story short

We need a turnaround in policies in Nigeria

That will go a LONG WAY in making our markets more robust.

Who was the president between 2016 till the end of 2017 when market moved from low to high? Was FPI not in the market then?

Market has stages, and those stages must develop even if you like put Pope as President.

I'm not holding brief for anyone. But we should stop complaining and make the money. Money dey here! grin grin

8 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:29am On Jul 20, 2020
RabbiDoracle:


There is time for everything.

Until we understand this, we will keep losing money.

As market trades, you try to understand what it is doing. But many of us don't do this.

I bought Zenith Public offer in 2004 at 10.90. 16 years later, I bought Zenith at 10.70 on the open market grin grin

I have bought and sold Zenith many times within that 16 years and I am on board again.

There is time for harvest. When it is time for harvest, don't leave your crop unattended.

Monitor the cycles in the market. Market has cycles. Market talks to us, but we hardly listen.


Baba show me d way. There has to be some sort of metric to screen stocks, how do you know that it's time to harvest?

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:34am On Jul 20, 2020
emmanuelewumi:



Zenith bank is not one of the best in the last 10 years. In fact none in the banking sector. If you are looking for one of best stocks that beat inflation and devaluation in the last 10 years. You consider APR and United Capital.

N9 million invested in the right offer IPO of United Capital in 2013 has received a total dividend of N22 million and currently worth N27 million

N12 million invested in the right offer IPO of APR in 2013 has received a total dividend of N32 million and worth N40 million.


For Zenith bank N10.9 million invested in 1 million units during the IPO in 2004 grew to 2.34 million units due to bonuses. The shares are currently worth N36.5 million in the market, a total dividend of over N45 million received over the years. Total return of N81.5 million.

A quiet company like Okomu Oil gave a better returns in the last 15 years than all the companies in the banking sector

Very educative, is it possible that returns may have even been better by temporarily exiting when price was at its peak and reentering lower while still capturing the dividends.

4 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aremso(m): 9:46am On Jul 20, 2020
jewery:
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*PRIVATE CHAT ME TO GUIDE YOU IN BUYING SHARES*
*You can start with low as $3*


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Or WhatsApp https:///message/5UWYKQ7IP42EP1
private chat u ke when you should come and learn from the gurus here

8 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 9:49am On Jul 20, 2020
grin
jewery:
*Registration Is Free✅*

*PRIVATE CHAT ME TO GUIDE YOU IN BUYING SHARES*

*You can start with low as $3*



Call on 07037068285

Or WhatsApp https:///message/5UWYKQ7IP42EP1
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojesymsym: 10:31am On Jul 20, 2020
You may not know it, you just broke my heart.
Thanks for this info, it is also a reset button to re-evaluate one's strategy. You sure do a great job with your research and sharing.

DrAwo:
If you bought Zenith bank on 01/01/2010 using N100,000 and reinvested all dividends received to buy more zenith bank shares on 01/04 each year, how much would your investment be worth as at 01/04/2020?

6 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Penboy: 10:36am On Jul 20, 2020
DrAwo:
I recommend the book "Rule 1" by Phil Town...

It covers in details the subjects of what to buy, when to buy, when to sell etc...

Thank me later...

Dyou have a link to download this book chief?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by veecovee: 10:51am On Jul 20, 2020
I can see loco, reading and learning as I do grin

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DrAwo(m): 10:55am On Jul 20, 2020
ojesymsym:
You may not know it, you just broke my heart.
Thanks for this info, it is also a reset button to re-evaluate one's strategy. You sure do a great job with your research and sharing.
I'm glad to hear it was thought provoking... It had the same effect on me too...

I take no credit for the revelation though. It was birthed after a discussion with like-minds who had done all the hard work of getting the data...

I am a long-termist who now believes in taking profit once initial valuations are unjustifiably exceeded...

8 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by thesilentone(m): 10:55am On Jul 20, 2020
DrAwo:
I recommend the book "Rule 1" by Phil Town...

It covers in details the subjects of what to buy, when to buy, when to sell etc...

Thank me later...

I was at one of his courses last year. Top dog

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Bjrokenhear003: 11:06am On Jul 20, 2020
DexterousOne:



A business that generates 12% monthly?

That's a > 144% return annually

What kind of business in today's Nigeria give such returns?

Bro they are so many businesses that can generate such especially with start ups where cost is purely maintained and few workers
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Bjrokenhear003: 11:08am On Jul 20, 2020
GUINESS still going low. In less than 6 months GUINESS has lost over N15

Will it rebound ?

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojesymsym: 11:19am On Jul 20, 2020
Are they a dividends paying stock?
Bjrokenhear003:
GUINESS still going low. In less than 6 months GUINESS has lost over N15

Will it rebound ?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 11:31am On Jul 20, 2020
RabbiDoracle:


Who was the president between 2016 till the end of 2017 when market moved from low to high? Was FPI not in the market then?

Market has stages, and those stages must develop even if you like put Pope as President.

I'm not holding brief for anyone. But we should stop complaining and make the money. Money dey here! grin grin



Okay
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by bigjay01(m): 11:54am On Jul 20, 2020
Is Guinness really worth #13.9 or is the market over punishing her for short term challenges?

Am in @ #13.8

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 12:02pm On Jul 20, 2020
bigjay01:
Is Guinness really worth #13.9 or is the market over punishing her for short term challenges?

Am in @ #13.8

Maybe their next financial report will give a clue.

Meanwhile UBA is getting serious attention.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Bjrokenhear003: 12:03pm On Jul 20, 2020
ojesymsym:
Are they a dividends paying stock?
Yes sir
They have established a dividend policy payment on the SEM

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