True, my ogas and madams in the house how was it like navigating such waters. If I could remember banks fared well?!

Danniee:
I never navigate the market during recession, pls direction is needed here on possible market behaviour.

Lol..
You and Buhari..

The economic fallout of Covid-19 na em Cement the recession following falling Oil prices. Even if na you be President with this combo, we for still enter recession. Even almighty American economy has felt the impact of Covid 19...

Anything 2021 comes with .... we will play..
My people say, 'you dont back out of living your life because there is a chance you could be hit by a stray bullet'..

Lion123:
I believe what Peter said. Buhari is going to deal with you people sha. 2021 could be bloody for Nigerians.

Someone should brief me on how PEG is calculated....

We are not as advanced as this AMERICA so they will feel it more but, unlike the last recession we barely noticed(local man was still cruising somehow) this one we will all feel, because of very terrible economics by this current folks in power

zimams:
Lol..
You and Buhari..

The economic fallout of Covid-19 na em Cement the recession following falling Oil prices. Even if na you be President with this combo, we for still enter recession. Even almighty American economy has felt the impact of Covid 19...

Anything 2021 comes with .... we will play..
My people say, 'you dont back out of living your life because there is a chance you could be hit by a stray bullet'..

So as a guide to understand what's going on... ask yourself if GTB stops making money when there is a recession.... the Q3 result for Access and Zenith banks which you saw yesterday, did it look like they operated in an economy in recession? Remember GDP shrank in Q2 as well. Q3 shrinking just confirms the recession. How has GTB faired in Q2 and Q3? Inspite of this shrink in GDP for 2 Quaters?

My thoughts....

Focus on Value. Is GTB a sound bank? Are they profitable? If you hold GT shares now, will you sell because Nigeria entered a recession?

Something I know about hot money .... it will always follow favourable conditions. So inspite of our recession, has there been any major policy reversal to trigger the movement of hot money away from the NSE? These will be my concern with respect to GTB, not necessarily the recession.

But let me also put a caveat. Your investment objective and horizon can change or determine your perspective. I have written based on my own perspective and objective.

moneymanager:
Good day Smart Investors,
Pls can someone help explain to me how our economy is in a recession and GTB stocks just keeps going up and up?
My plan was to wait for it to go down and then buy next year but it’s gone so high as not sure what’s going on.

Also if you could in any way also forecast what’s likely to happy to it next year it would be highly appreciated.
Thanks ��

Please can someone explain PEG to me and how to calculate price/earning of an organization

I'm new to this stocks investment biz/game and I'm really taking my time to understand some terms

The last recession in 2016, these same folks were also in charge... so was it different economics then? Why didnt we feel it then as you think we will feel it now?

In your thought process you are not acknowledging the impact of this Global Pandemic on our economy. Maybe because it's more convenient to blame someone for it..

A pandemic that kept us all at home and businesses locked down from April 1 till almost end of half July ?

Zagee:
We are not as advanced as this AMERICA so they will feel it more but, unlike the last recession we barely noticed(local man was still cruising somehow) this one we will all feel, because of very terrible economics by this current folks in power

Price to Earning Ratio P/E.

First find Earning (E) = Earning Per Share (EPS) = Companies Net Earning (after Tax) ÷ Total no of Outstanding Shares of the company

When you have found EPS. Then PE ratio = the current per unit share price of the Coy ÷ EPS.

I no know book o!
I hope I have been able to help in my little way.

You could also Google it for more clarity.
There are also great resources on YouTube to set you on your way to understanding the concepts and terms.

Limitless72:
Please can someone explain PEG to me and how to calculate price/earning of an organization

I'm new to this stocks investment biz/game and I'm really taking my time to understand some terms

I have spent few months in NSEMPA and I can say that I have study most people here. Let me just talk about two characters here:

One of the characters is a prophet of doom, he is always coming to the group to scare life out of people whenever he's out of market ( he bares same name with one of Jesus christ's disciple)

The other one is always ready to insult the hell out of people. Although, he has been in ghost mode for the past 4months.

Dont drag me ooo, I cum in pisss.

zimams:
Price to Earning Ratio P/E.

First find Earning (E) = Earning Per Share (EPS) = Companies Net Earning (after Tax) ÷ Total no of Outstanding Shares of the company

When you have found EPS. Then PE ratio = the current per unit share price of the Coy ÷ EPS.

I no know book o!
I hope I have been able to help in my little way.

You could also Google it for more clarity.
There are also great resources on YouTube to set you on your way to understanding the concepts and terms.

Thank you bro....
J'apprecie trés beaucoup

zimams:
So as a guide to understand what's going on... ask yourself if GTB stops making money when there is a recession.... the Q3 result for Access and Zenith banks which you saw yesterday, did it look like they operated in an economy in recession? Remember GDP shrank in Q2 as well. Q3 shrinking just confirms the recession. How has GTB faired in Q2 and Q3? Inspite of this shrink in GDP for 2 Quaters?


My thoughts....

Focus on Value. Is GTB a sound bank? Are they profitable? If you hold GT shares now, will you sell because Nigeria entered a recession?

Something I know about hot money .... it will always follow favourable conditions. So inspite of our recession, has there been any major policy reversal to trigger the movement of hot money away from the NSE? These will be my concern with respect to GTB, not necessarily the recession.

But let me also put a caveat. Your investment objective and horizon can change or determine your perspective. I have written based on my own perspective and objective.

What if 'Hot money' has finished buying some few weeks back and are just waiting to cash out after dividend declaration.
I guess he should also focus on margin of safety too.No matter how good a stock is, you should still not overpay for it.

Monday696:
I have spent few months in NSEMPA and I can say that I have study most people here. Let me just talk about two characters here:

One of the characters is a prophet of doom, he is always coming to the group to scare life out of people whenever he's out of market ( he bares same name with one of Jesus christ's disciple)

The other one is always ready to insult the hell out of people. Although, he has been in ghost mode for the past 4months.

Dont drag me ooo, I cum in pisss.

Abeg call names oooooo

Back then, we had a finance Minister who was willing to be lenient with her policies knowing fully well that this population was disadvantaged. This time we have people who honestly don't care about how we feel outside the comfort of their palaces. And yes I considered covid19 too, but I doubt if covid is affecting onion price and all those element the local man needs to survive(Not live)

zimams:
The last recession in 2016, these same folks were also in charge... so was it different economics then? Why didnt we feel it then as you think we will feel it now?

I know one thing for sure that breweries and HEALTHcare will do well even in the recession

I wouldn't want us to derail this thread. But I'll just like to say that there are many moving parts and every thing has to be taken into context.

If we look at Onion as a staple, where is it grown predominantly? And how has the cost of transporting it to the south affected its price? How has the cost of petrol affect the cost of transportation? How has Nigeria's earnings affected her ability to continue to subsidize the cost of petrol?

What you refer to as 'lenient policies' could lead to slow death... if I assume that continued fuel subsidy is one of those lenient policies.

In 2011 my voice was very loud against removal of petrol subsidy. But 9yrs after , I see things differently. It's either the country can afford it or it cant.

Let me tell you about my small business. We funded staff lunch 4 times a week. Based on current economic climate, we've scrapped it. It's still me.... same govt. Would you say I stopped lenient policies? We could continue lenient policies and the company goes under and we are all without work. There are some difficult choices leaders are faced with. I'm not quick to criticize because I lead, so i know ...

'You know say.... when plane face severe turbulence and the pilot makes a judegement call that violently jolts the aircraft.. the passengers go yab am... say em no sabi.... but na him wey dey cockpit in front of those dials and gauges know wetin em see... wey make e fly into the cloud take the turbulence. Just maybe na storm wey for fit bring down the aircraft na em e avoid so...

Having said that... let's be balanced in our view of some of these things and our criticism.

Again.. this is me... opinions and view points differ.

Zagee:
Back then, we had a finance Minister who was willing to be lenient with her policies knowing fully well that this population was disadvantaged. This time we have people who honestly don't care about how we feel outside the comfort of their palaces. And yes I considered covid19 too, but I doubt if covid is affecting onion price and all those element the local man needs to survive(Not live)

True ...you are very correct. Entry price is very important. But my point is that your entry price and whether you should buy at all should be driven more by financial health of the company and its ability to make profit.

Everything is cyclical... hot money comes and goes. If you bought right and you have medium to long term objectives.... you wont worry about hot money leaving.

Your perspective and objective is everything.

In 2007/2008 I bought Zenith at 47.60/share... it turned to dust in my hands when the market crashed.
The same Zenith is a substantial part of my portfolio today with average entry price at 13.37. We still dey hold....


People wey dey fear recession..... make I remind una say.... na inside this recession wey some stocks don deliver 100 % - 200 % to some of us here....

Just know your objective in the market and buy right.... then allow nature (time + forces of demand and supply/market ) do its thing..

Again this is me o! Strictly my opinion.

Valueinvestor:


What if 'Hot money' has finished buying some few weeks back and are just waiting to cash out after dividend declaration.
I guess he should also focus on margin of safety too.No matter how good a stock is, you should still not overpay for it.

1. They failed in not activating just one refinery within their first 4 years
2. The gov't has somewhat of an endless leverage in terms of borrowing unlike you.
3. We are feeling the brunt of their mindless politicking.

zimams:
I wouldn't want us to derail this thread. But I'll just like to say that there are many moving parts and every thing has to be taken into context.

If we look at Onion as a staple, where is it grown predominantly? And how has the cost of transporting it to the south affected its price? How has the cost of petrol affect the cost of transportation? How has Nigeria's earnings affected her ability to continue to subsidize the cost of petrol?

What you refer to as 'lenient policies' could lead to slow death... if I assume that continued fuel subsidy is one of those lenient policies.

...

Zagee:
True, my ogas and madams in the house how was it like navigating such waters. If I could remember banks fared well?!

During recession

1. Paper loss for the rich mounts and their net worth plummet but they do not panic. They even acquire more assets at grave robber valuations.
2. The poor panic, sell their assets at give away prices, like the end has come.

There's only one outcome from recession - the rich get richer!

Look at the recent covid induced economic activities for inspiration. Check the value of assets that crashed during that period, what is their current value?

Who are those that sold Zenith Bank at sub N10 per share and who are those that bought? Who are those struggling to buy Zenith at N25+ just a few months after it was available for a fraction of its actual worth?

To the rich, recession is a once in a while opportunity to get richer while the poor see it as suffering time as a result of the mismanagement of the economy by the political class. All na perspectives!!!

Harvestock01:


During recession

1. Paper loss for the rich mounts and their net worth plummet but they do not panic. They even acquire more assets at grave robber valuations.
2. The poor panic, sell their assets at give away prices, like the end has come.

There's only one outcome from recession - the rich get richer!
Look at the recent covid induced economic activities for inspiration. Check the value of assets that crashed during that period, what is their current value?

Who are those that sold Zenith Bank at sub N10 per share and who are those that bought? Who are those struggling to buy Zenith at N25+ just a few months after it was available for a fraction of its actual worth?

To the rich, recession is a once in a while opportunity to get richer while the poor see it as suffering time as a result of the mismanagement of the economy by the political class. All na perspectives!!!

Those who bought OANDO above 200 no go like this your analysis ooooi

Well put..

Recessions have been known to drive wealth Transfer. It's a question of mindset and positioning.

The story of this recession will be told by those who cleaned out in the midst of it.....much later. Stay tuned...

I mean.. in my mother tongue 'just negodu Neimeth' ....( see Neimeth). Has that stock not returned more than 300% in this recession?

There will be further price correction in the NSE. Let's keep our eyes open for under priced value stocks .... just make sure you know what you are buying and why you are buying it... then allow nature take its course.

Its shall be well with us. Recession or not.

Harvestock01:


During recession

1. Paper loss for the rich mounts and their net worth plummet but they do not panic. They even acquire more assets at grave robber valuations.
2. The poor panic, sell their assets at give away prices, like the end has come.

There's only one outcome from recession - the rich get richer!

Look at the recent covid induced economic activities for inspiration. Check the value of assets that crashed during that period, what is their current value?

Who are those that sold Zenith Bank at sub N10 per share and who are those that bought? Who are those struggling to buy Zenith at N25+ just a few months after it was available for a fraction of its actual worth?

To the rich, recession is a once in a while opportunity to get richer while the poor see it as suffering time as a result of the mismanagement of the economy by the political class. All na perspectives!!!

[quote author=Harvestock01 post=96297515]

During recession

1. Paper loss for the rich mounts and their net worth plummet

Did we just enter recession or we have Been in it before this bull
Make I know now cos am not ready to watch uba I bought for 6 naira come and be selling for 3 naira.!!

megawealth01:


Those who bought OANDO above 200 no go like this your analysis ooooi

All die na die.

All else remaining constant (good performance like we've seen even during Covid pandemic), it will be a great opportunity to average down.....

Better opportunity!






[quote author=Krisuba post=96300117][/quote]

OANDO own na worse

Harvestock01:


All die na die.

megawealth01:
OANDO own na worse

You are right. We are all at liberty to focus on whatever we choose to.

zimams:
True ...you are very correct. Entry price is very important. But my point is that your entry price and whether you should buy at all should be driven more by financial health of the company and its ability to make profit.

Everything is cyclical... hot money comes and goes. If you bought right and you have medium to long term objectives.... you wont worry about hot money leaving.

Your perspective and objective is everything.

In 2007/2008 I bought Zenith at 47.60/share... it turned to dust in my hands when the market crashed.
The same Zenith is a substantial part of my portfolio today with average entry price at 13.37. We still dey hold....


People wey dey fear recession..... make I remind una say.... na inside this recession wey some stocks don deliver 100 % - 200 % to some of us here....

Just know your objective in the market and buy right.... then allow nature (time + forces of demand and supply/market ) do its thing..

Again this is me o! Strictly my opinion.

OK I get you, all am just trying to say is that he should thread cautiously for the time being,and watch how events unfold in the next few weeks.what's moving the market now is not just about a stock being financially healthy,
When the market stops responding positively to good results, then it calls for caution.Anyway as for me I would rather let a substantial part of my portfolio be in cash for now,after all, the rally was an unexpected jolly good ride and we don't wish to turn our gain into pain

zimams:
True ...you are very correct. Entry price is very important. But my point is that your entry price and whether you should buy at all should be driven more by financial health of the company and its ability to make profit.

Everything is cyclical... hot money comes and goes. If you bought right and you have medium to long term objectives.... you wont worry about hot money leaving.

Your perspective and objective is everything.

In 2007/2008 I bought Zenith at 47.60/share... it turned to dust in my hands when the market crashed.
The same Zenith is a substantial part of my portfolio today with average entry price at 13.37. We still dey hold....


People wey dey fear recession..... make I remind una say.... na inside this recession wey some stocks don deliver 100 % - 200 % to some of us here....

Just know your objective in the market and buy right.... then allow nature (time + forces of demand and supply/market ) do its thing..

Again this is me o! Strictly my opinion.

Very true...
The only thing that baffles me is how GTB is just defying logic in this recession because it didn’t behave like this in 2008.

Someone mentioned that it’s because rates on bonds and fixed deposits have drastically fallen and so investors have no choice but to run to stocks.

If this is true I wonder how long this trend can last. Especially given the group said Q2 and Q3 was bad for financial sectors.
I see GTB as the fin Sec leader and a good stock but not sure if this rise is sustainable or if it’s downtown from here
So I say make I ask make I no go blunder as a newbie

Grateful for all advice and ready to do due diligence based on them (100%)

Recession no be today thing. The economy has been in decline since beginning of the year. Despite that some companies in banks, cement and healthcare are doing very well. Some of them are even doing better than last year sef when recession no dey officially.To those who want to panic sell I beg help us drag price down. Another small wealth transfer may be loading.

The greatest mistake I made this year was to listen to prophets of doom and exit the market during the last Endsars protest. I learnt the hard way.

Lesson: take most of what you read here with a pinch of salt. Things are never as good or bad as they paint it.

YourhealthNG2:
The greatest mistake I made this year was to listen to prophets of doom and exit the market during the last Endsars protest. I learnt the hard way.

Lesson: take most of what you read here with a pinch of salt. Things are never as good or bad as they paint it.

lol, why dont you go deeper into the reasons that made u leave the market, lets all learn...........................especially days before you left the market lets know your mind frame

You know how the Democrats in the US say Trump's policies favour just his friends and cronies? For now.... in this our country, policies espoused by the CBN favours this market..... for now o!

Like I said before, Hot money will always head towards favourable conditions. As at March/April lows, Dividend yield for Zenith Bank , UCAP were 20%+ if I'm not wrong... currently, even with our ASI where it is there are still a number of stocks with Dividend yield btwn 9% - 12%. This is out performing rates from some other investments or risk assets. When this condition changes.... then I will expect a big Bear just before and after. The challenge is how to see it coming..... Our gurus in the house with more experience fit sound the alarm for boys to jump out...
There is a difference between drop in share prices due to panic sales and drop in share price due to poor performance of a Coy and drop in share price due to a significant change in govt policy that makes the market less attractive. We need wisdom to decipher.

And again.. everything is largely built around perception, objective and risk appetite of the investor.

Let me share a short story from my experience 3 months ago.

Where I come from in the east, the PHC - Maiduguri Rail line crosses right in front of my father's house. It's about 100 meters from the house. That rail was built by the British in the early 1900's. The bars in between the rails are all made of steel. I grew up seeing that rail everytime we travelled home for holidays or events.

Fast fwd to August 2020, I accompanied my Mrs to Yaba market to do some shopping. And for the first time I came in contact with the new standard gauge rail being built by the Chinese. Alas... Those steel bars in between the Rails are made of reinforced concrete. I do not know the terms or the deal the FG has with the Chinese. But I would be surprised if they are importing cement being used to build these rails. And there are new deals for Standard gauge rail virtually all around the country.

So taking our Cement industry into consideration, I will be more concerned about the sustainability of these sort of projects rather than a recession. Unless of course, the recession threatens the project. Which is unlikely because the FG has loan agreements in place covering the projects for which they've also provided counter part funding as per turn-key contract terms.

Now this is no recommendation o! I'm just sharing an experience to highlight how I choose to look at some of the issues that concern us. Ultimately, your portfolio is 100% your responsibility.

moneymanager:


Very true...
The only thing that baffles me is how GTB is just defying logic in this recession because it didn’t behave like this in 2008.

Someone mentioned that it’s because rates on bonds and fixed deposits have drastically fallen and so investors have no choice but to run to stocks.

If this is true I wonder how long this trend can last. Especially given the group said Q2 and Q3 was bad for financial sectors.
I see GTB as the fin Sec leader and a good stock but not sure if this rise is sustainable or if it’s downtown from here
So I say make I ask make I no go blunder as a newbie

Grateful for all advice and ready to do due diligence based on them (100%)