Biafran4life:
You are right some how,you may not have physical offices but your products/service are top and not in ghost mood.Let me give you a typical example during the 2008 crash.Each time I drive pass rojeny resort you will see that forest has taken over the place but when I go to nse,I still see people biding for thr shares.Another was standard alliance insurance.My wife did everything possible to make me pickup one of thr packages.And I refused because I knew it was matter of time,they will come crashing . Even when she was no longer thr,clients whr calling and threatening her for the company to have decieved them after expiration of the contribution for 3 yrs ,5 yrs and could not access thr money

What about Afroil in 2007 that moved from 50k to N6.00, even though the company stopped business about 2 years earlier and was owing house rent for 3 years

BrokerHaruna:
Folks should calm down. ETI result presents huge opportunities, huge upsides. Smart investors are positioning. Note that it's an audited result for a reason. Watch out for the ride

ETI... Well na my JIJO stock sha so I don't usually talk about am

.

ETI, as predicted, stabilized at the end of market close having shaken off the fearful. Today's transaction/demand for the stock was the highest quantity in recent times. The demand pressure should give us an idea of the trajectory

Something is confusing me, some coys here are not doing well in terms of earning but are doing well in the market.

Untill folks learn the ropes on how to see, extrapolate and interpret the good in a bad or poor result and the bad in a good one, they may continue to give in to their emotions and oftentimes overreact when a coy releases its financial print.(fear-greed factor in view)
Spotting the good in a poor or bad financial report can help one to efficiently and effectively manage FEAR, while seeing the bad in a good report can be a handy tool towards managing GREED. This way, a trader/investor can better utilize their trade/investing set-up peculiar to their personality to ensure more WINS and fewer loses(entry/exit strategy in view)

Admitted, ETI under-performed in the period under review, but could there have been any good reason behind it? …could there have been some good in the poor result?
This is how to benchmark inherent risk against feasible reward and from there, sick to tap some gains over VALUE.
1st off is to ask why the report was audited?(Q3 in view) …and why was there a grossly poor NPM despite just a slight drop(circa 14%) in NIR and growth in NIM(NII in view). …in fact, NIR witnessed only a 1% drop in Q3 when compared to the preceeding yr.

It should help to note how the drop in EBIT margin was majorly driven by an over 6,300bps(approx 63.7%) booking on impairment from the groups Goodwill. Apparently the bank decided to book an impairment expense in its Goodwill. This often happens when a coy thinks its goodwill line is a bit too much and requires pruning down, and would usually affect(negatively) a coys NET INCOME.
For emphasis, ETI reported 37% of what would have been its NPM(should’ve been 63% more) …the interpretation of this is that for every N10 of net income in its book, over N6.3 was taken down as goodwill expense. But for that line, NPM would’ve been much higher.
Again ask urself; How did the group grow its AER(NA in view) and deposit pool despite the impaired Goodwill line? …this clearly tells u that the brand is still healthy !!
Elsewhere, why is the groups CGPR still very healthy !!

As I’ve always stated here in times past; financial indices like EPS, ROE, PE/PEG oftentimes does not tell the whole story. …broad financial analysis has gone past that stage. A right but thorough blend/combination of several key indicators/determinants is needed to see through the value accretive stand in a company’ financial print.
While ETI’ Q3 report card is poor, inherent risk is still well below its feasible reward given the coys current mkt price.
That part in bold is all that matters, as it is where an investors quest for VALUE/RETURN revolves around. …it is everything !! Every other thing comes after it.
Using a blend of financial model which looks at the worst case scenario given the No prints in its report and also attaches an appreciable risk premium to its value potential, ETI is fairly priced @ N10.30.
So if u had bought at btw N3.90 to N4.1 when we 1st mentioned it here… HOLD !!
Even if u bought @ N5 to near the present mkt price, it’d be best to stay put and not panic.(the coys technical stance largely supports this)

Disclaimer: NOT to be inferred to as any kind of recommendation.

The most important thing is to Know WHAT u want out of every investment move and WHY u want it !! …and from there, ur investment personality and goal(what sought of investor ought u to be) and ur investing horizon should be the necessary seasoning that drives ur decision-making.
To illustrate; common sense should infer that a dividend growth investor could be better off without ETI, while a value chaser could be better off embracing it given the current mkt price.
Define ur terms and do well to stick to it !!

Selah

Jochez15:
Something is confusing me, some coys here are not doing well in terms of earning but are doing well in the market.

That's the voodoo of nse

onegentleguy:
Untill folks learn the ropes on how to see, extrapolate and interpret the good in a bad or poor result and the bad in a good one, they may continue to give in to their emotions and oftentimes overreact when a coy releases its financial print.(fear-greed factor in view)

Admitted, ETI underperformed in the period under review, but could there have been any good reason behind it? …could there have been some good in the poor result?
This is how to benchmark feasible risk against inherent reward and from there, sick to tap some gains over VALUE.
1st off is ask why the report was audited? …and why was there a grossly poor NPM despite just a slight drop(circa 14%) in NIR and a positive growth in NIM(NII in view). …in fact, NIR witnessed only a 1% in Q3 when compared to the preceding yr.

It should help to note how the drop in EBIT margin was majorly driven by an over 6,300bps(approx 63.7%) booking on impairment from the groups Goodwill. Apparently the bank decided to book an impairment expense in its Goodwill. This often happens when a coy thinks its goodwill line is a bit too much and requires pruning down.
This always affects(negatively) a coys NET INCOME. For emphasis, ETI reported 37% of what would have its NPM(would’ve been 63% more) …the interpretation of this is that for every N10 of net income in its book, over N6.7 was taken down as goodwill expense. But for that, NPM would’ve been much higher.
Again ask urself; How did the group grow its AER and deposit pool despite the impaired Goodwill line? …this clearly tells u that the brand is still healthy !!
Elsewhere, why is the groups CGPR still very healthy !!
As I’ve always stated here in times past; financial indices like EPS, ROE, PE/PEG oftentimes does not tell the whole story. …broad financial analysis has gone past that stage. A right but thorough blend/combination of several key indicators/determinants is needed to see through the value accretive stand of a company’ financial print.
While ETI’ Q3 report card is poor, inherent risk is still well below its feasible reward given the coys current mkt price. This part in bold is all that matters as it is where an investors quest for VALUE/RETURN revolves around. …it is everything !! Every other thing comes after it.
Using a blend of financial model which looks at the worst case scenario given the No prints in its report and also attaches an appreciable risk premium to its value potential, ETI is fairly priced @ N10.30.
So if u had bought at btw N3.90 to N4.1 when we 1st mentioned it here… HOLD !!
Even if u bought @ N5 to near the present mkt price, it’d be best to stay put and not panic.(the coys technical stance largely supports this)

Disclaimer: NOT to be inferred to as any kind of recommendation.

The most important thing is to Know WHAT u want out of every investment move and WHY u want it !! …and from there, ur investment personality and goal(what sought of investor ought u to be) and ur investing horizon should be the right seasoning to drive ur decision-making.
To illustrate; common sense should infer that a dividend growth investor could be better off without ETI, while a value chaser could be better off embracing it given the current mkt price.
Define ur terms and do well to stick to it !!

Selah

Well no comment as eti na my JIJO stock

Well, why wasting time if there are better things( stocks) aside ETI

We are here to make money both in the long and short run,

megawealth01:
Well no comment as eti na my JIJO stock

Jochez15:
Something is confusing me, some coys here are not doing well in terms of earning but are doing well in the market.

Not everybody look before they leap. na life be that.

onegentleguy:
On Guinness...
I wonder how some of u interpret financial statements.
...there is need to learn how to read between the line, extrapolate figures from a collection of key financial indicators/determinants before drawing conclusions.
That coy is struggling. ...earnings are draining and it does appear that a would-be point of inflection is still a bit far away.

For those talking about the coys current cash position, hear this;
Before u adjudge and assign a coys cash position as benefit to equityholders, u MUST;

1) rake off the coys debt position, particularly those of the near term(current liabilities in view)
2) Understand how that cash came about and how it is been put to use(cash flow activities in view)

On point 1, while Guinness YtD Cash position printed an improvement to approx N18.76B, over 70% of that figure @ circa N13.27B is a cash proportion upon near term L&B.
...so actual accrued cash benefit to equityholders is approx N5.48B and not N18.75B.
Another pivotal input that will give u a guide is to look at the coys quick ratio and compare it to that of its industrial peers. Guinness has now recorded a back to back(QoQ in view) negative NWC, with a quick ratio of 0.5x. ...the interpretation of this is that for every N1 liability in the books of Guiness, the company can only afford 50k from its readily available cash/asset to offset it.(the cash u so speak highly of)
Put differently, Guinness is currently insolvent !!
To add credence to this fact is the coys CLCR.

On point 2, the cash had come from the high print in OCF, an offset of a surge in trade and other receivables.
Some months ago, management guided that it will consider tightening credit terms by ending its contract with some of its distributors and where necessary, collect any returned goods, as part of efforts to sought out working capital challenges.(see the uptick in inventory)
This has helped improve the change in WC. ...which is key.
However, debt obligations remains a course of great concern.

From a surrounding risk perspective, the company will need to do a bit more(than its peers) to erk out more earnings from its current WC given the growing contracting margin it faces with high cost input.
Guinness will need to battle more with cost following the 1,430bps increment in excise duty to N200/litre on spirits(beginning June 2020) which unfortunately, constitutes(together with wine) a big weight of revenue build for the coy. The govt currently taxes N150/litre on wine(excise duty).
I dare say that there's an urgent need to seek to innovate around its product lines to better increase penetration while seeking effective channels to optimize cost.

Let me let u in on a few other worries;
Guinness' current EFIR of over 40% is not good at all. The coy is highly dependent on external sources of cash(debt) to fund its operations.
Elsewhere, there are a few financial indicators that infers that the coy might be coming for ur money soon. ...or seek to raise more funds from other sources.(CBR in view)
It actually needs cash.

Using a fine blend of an appropriate valuation model that discounts surrounding risk attaching an appreciable risk premium, my FVE pegs @ N12.70

Disclosure: This is stating matters from a strictly fundamental perspective. ...the coys TA might be saying something different.
NOT to be viewed as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

What to do?
Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

Biafran4life:
I said it some Moon ago that some of my investment decision is based on what I see on the street.When was the last time you went to any eti branch,you will vow not to deal with them again. In most states they have closed many branches. The customer service is wacked,their IT innovation is zero compared to other Banks,no serious business man gives their account for business.Infact I went to a particular branch and they could not attend to me because of no phcn power.I stopped my boys somewhere in the north to stop using the business account as it was originally oceanic.It is so problematic to transfer from eti via mobile phone to other Banks..Once it steps to October of most yrs the network become a big problem to transact business. on.
It is just like I just shake my head anytime some are promoting Guinness.When did you go to any seat out,club,joints, hotel and see Guinness products on the table (beer) even thr malt drink
The worst off them all i are his insurance companies.When you go to some of thr office,you will be wondering why they are wasting money in renting some of the office space

Its always important to try to look in on the possible reason(s) behind a move, whether coperate or otherwise.
How about looking at the closure/trimming down of branches(part in bold) from the perspective of a COST-CUTTING MEASURE that will help boost the banks overall NET MARGIN and aid its efficiency. Sure u wouldn't advocate that the bank should continue to retain and fund unproductive banches that do not add to their bottomline?
The truth is; There was an urgent need for cost optimization. Look at the banks SoI and BS in the last 2 quaters and u will see that this is already been effected and is also paying off, albiet slowly.
Folks should take an in-depth review of that report before drawing conclusions.

U are right about Guinness though. I already stated as much here.(see post above)

Regards

onegentleguy:

Welcome back sir.
You've really been doing so well in terms of detailed analysis.
Kudos sir.

Jochez15:
Something is confusing me, some coys here are not doing well in terms of earning but are doing well in the market.

Wonders of NSE my bro/sis.
That's why sometimes I wonder how some of our oldbies used to rubbish all stocks that are not fundamentally very okay.
All they wanted to see people discussing are big caps. Once you're commenting on sound medium/big caps no wahala .....but once you start mentioning small/low/not too sound ones, you'll see vexing.

Insurance?? Chai! You don offend some be that.

That was how they rubbished CCNN. The stock even sold down to around N9 that time. Instead of us to dissect and see inherent values like it used to be before. Nayyy.
Today, the same CCNN transformed to BUA and is well sitting above N50.....

That's where we needed to give it to OGG in this platform. He's really trying in the aspect of detailed analysis.

My ogas make Una no vex o. Na example I just dey give.

Mcy56:

Wonders of NSE my bro/sis.
That's why sometimes I wonder how some of our oldbies used to rubbish all stocks that are not fundamentally very okay.
All they wanted to see people discussing are big caps. Once you're commenting on sound medium/big caps no wahala .....but once you start mentioning small/low/not too sound ones, you'll see vexing.

Insurance?? Chai! You don offend some be that.
That was how they rubbished CCNN. The stock even sold down to around N9 that time. Instead of us to dissect and see inherent values like it used to be before. Nayyy.
Today, the same CCNN transformed to BUA and is well sitting above N50.....
That's where we needed to give it to OGG in this platform. He's really trying in the aspect of detailed analysis.

My ogas make Una no vex o. Na example I just dey give.

Insurance sent many to the villa

megawealth01:
Insurance sent many to the villa

Lol not disputing that.
I think that's the reason they don't even want to hear anything about the sector.
......but in as much as they're still on the exchange, we will still be mentioning them once in a while nah. Some are still good and are striving to be better.

megawealth01:
Insurance sent many to the villa

Jochez15:
Something is confusing me, some coys here are not doing well in terms of earning but are doing well in the market.

Part of the madness in the market

sellydion:
It would soon go to where it belong

Hhmmm.

Mcy56:

Your FTN Cocoa is performing magic.
It's tempting.

For some of us, it is he who is down need fear no fall...

jamace:
For some of us, it is he who is down need fear no fall...

You must have been holding it for God knows when.......and maybe at higher price. Chai!!! It is well o.

Think I'm trying to understand with the ogas on the emphasis on sound stocks really.
Make Una come dey caution us and advice newbies from time to time o.

.......but now, something seems to be driving the stock. Some will still profit from it one way or the other.

Mcy56:

You must have been holding it for God knows when.......and maybe at higher price. Chai!!! It is well o.

Think I'm trying to understand with the ogas on the emphasis on sound stocks really.
Make Una come dey caution us and advice newbies from time to time o.

Been in the bus for over 10 years. But I know it will make me proud one day, like Okomu and Presco....

jamace:
Been in the bus for over 10 years. But I know it will make me proud one day, like Okomu and Presco....

Waoh! No be small thing.
Seems God has picked your call eventually. Don't relent in prayers.
Let's hope this restructuring will end up catapulting the stock.
Looks like new investor is coming in. I'm somehow keeping eyes on the stock now. Just hope I'll be free to be posting it here.

megawealth01:
Insurance sent many to the villa

AIICO, NEM & LASACO in the bag.

IEI & STACO - Obituaries a long time ago.

MBENEFIT has been profitable lately. Putting on my speculative cap, new licencees? Why the surge in volume?

Mcy56:

Waoh! No be small thing.
Seems God has picked your call eventually. Don't relent in prayers.
Let's hope this restructuring will end up catapulting the stock.
Looks like new investor is coming in. I'm somehow keeping eyes on the stock now. Just hope I'll be free to be posting it here.

Feel free to join the bus BUT at your own risk o..

Broker Haruna & coy after going through ETI results

may be will can get something tangible from this.

PETERiCHY:
Broker Haruna & coy after going through ETI results

I wonder what can be said about Cadbury plc and his brother unilever.these two do not receive mention at all.

@moyin,
When a child goes to school and come back with poor results and all his mates are progressing

what would you say? ETI needs to be punished. Forget about recover today it is all a matter of time.

You dont put money when things simply does not add up. The HOPEFUL can continue to eldorado.

moyin2009:
may be will can get something tangible from this.

Stonks only go up

Pls how long does it take First Registrars to pay dividend on Nigerian breweries after transmission? It's getting to 2 months and no sign of payment yet.

seyisanya:
This one nah ghen ghen...

Welcome back chief