₦airaland Forum

LordAdam16:
It is logical of them to sit this out.

The Lebanese Army has less than 100K troops.
It is also diverse.
Israel will use its stationary assets as target practice.
In a few weeks tops, they'll essentially have to fight like a guerilla force.

Meanwhile, Lebanon is a country of 5 million people surrounded by larger countries with major Sunni Islamic terrorist problems.
After sustaining huge casualties in the War, the Islamists will walk in unimpeded and establish terror organizations.
They've had several scrapes with these terror groups, so it's best to let Hezbollah handle the IDF.

The Lebanese Army is doing its job of not letting the Sunni Islamists open a new front in Lebanon as they're attempting to do in Syria.
Because then Hezbollah's attention will be divided. It's core mandate is to defend Lebanese borders not assist Hamas.
So it will redirect some forces to the new threat.

The problem Lebanon faces is peculiar.
The four leading sects--Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze--do not trust each other nor should they.
The natural ally of the Christians are the West + Israel. Natural allies of the Sunnis are the Gulf monarchies. Natural allies of the Shiites are the Persians. The Druze pair up with whomever has the most power at any point.
So even if you send the Army against the IDF, Aman can easily flip a Druze, Christian, or Sunni Muslim soldier into feeding coordinates and intelligence to the IDF, because it is in their sectarian interests for the IDF to prevail over Hezbollah.
It's a mess.

Let them remain neutral, protect the flanks, and offer an off-ramp.
Hezbollah will always have a lifeline because any deal to end the War will involve returning to the status quo or similar.
Unlike Gaza, the West cannot say that all Lebanese want to destroy Israel. So they'll cede control back to the Lebanese Army which will promptly look the other way while Hezbollah acquires deadlier armory. It is clear that after this War, Iran will transform Hezbollah and Houthis into near-equals of the IRGC's.
Hezbollah is far more useful to Lebanon than Iran even.

A lot of what has happened in the War is what you'll expect in a proxy War.
The US has had to watch helplessly as its proxy forces in Syria has been pummeled by both Syrian/Russian and Turkish forces.
If Iran wants to change the calculus, it'll need to build its Air Defense capabilities, its Air Force fleet, and force projection.
So it'll need to establish several bases in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen. Deploy air defense to protect forces there. Then deploy enough air force assets to be able to enforce a No Fly Zone.
To do that, it'll have to move way closer into the Axis orbit and become what Turkey is to NATO.
Unlike Turkey that recognized its limitations early on and acted accordingly, Ayatollah Khomeini famously pursued a "Neither West Nor East" foreign policy. So while Turkey was building its economy and fighting force, the Mullahs have been operating under a self-imposed embargo on cooperating closely with the leading superpowers.
They only changed their stance recently and it is taking this war and the threat of Israeli decapitation strike on the leadership for them to finally give up their completely boneheaded policy.

Everything that has happened so far leads back to that.
Turkey has more F-16s than Israel. It offered to buy more than 100 F-35 and received 4 before they were banned from the program.
In exchange, the US will give them 40 more F-16 of the most recent block. While Israel has 35 F-35's. And they've made some ground in developing their homegrown variant of the F-35 because they were involved in development and production of the F-16 and also involved in the development of the F-35.
If the Mullahs were not complete buffoons, they could have had a similar relationship with the Russians or Chinese. Iran will be crawling with S-400s, S-35s, S-57s, J-20s, and UAVs. We would not be concerned about Israeli strikes and they could have been able to enforce a NFZ in Syria, Iraq, and Beirut. That'd mean that IRGC officers operating in these countries will have operational freedom and better able to support the Resistance. Russia and China will be so pleased that they have a partner that can beef up protection of their interests in the region. In the War in Syria, the Axis would have made and held more ground.
In this War against Ukraine or the potential War in Taiwan, they'd be able to free up assets for their war effort and Iran would have picked up the slack easy. And vice versa. Russian and Chinese jets would be patrolling some flanks in Iran while they forward-deploy more Iranian air assets closer to the frontline.
And this is before we get to the topic of nukes.

Leadership is not all about having titles, living large in mansions, and having a harem.
It requires strategic planning and words can't express how awful the Mullahs have been.
The Resistance is having to do more heavy lifting under impossible conditions because of decade-spanning errors by the Mullahs.

-Lord

Your analysis deh on point.

pansophist:
Sadly he went to japa to the worse country where shege pro max dey wait for am.

He no see FInland, Australia, Switzerland, Austria etc go?

I think he used agents that's why.

Krismas:
Missiles are not the military strength or doctrine of the west and by extension, Israel too. Iran is far ahead of the west in missile tech.
The US Navy in the Middle East, depleted its SM-3 strategic missiles to help Israel shoot down Iran missiles.
This is becos, a single SM-3 used by the US Navy costs $28 million (Iran can use $300k to do similar) and it is America’s top weapon against ballistic missile threat. And Washington only produces
12 SM-3 missiles per year.
So they could only fire 12 at Iran’s 200 ballistics October1 missile rain
America makes one missile per month?
The cost of their missiles is too much. Is like paying N1,000,000 for hookup! Which someone somewhere can use N20k to get.
Question now is, no be the same puna?
Abi why some pussy cost pass others?
Iran makes cheap missiles, which is why iron dome for Israel can’t keep up. Iron dome always run out of missiles
Hezbollah is using 20k to fvck the pussy Israel is using 1million to fvck

😂 😂

Kewtt:
I use a sequoia so imagine my pain when 207 is talking

Omo... I deh use Ford Focus.

Krismas:
U obviously didn’t know about my attached pictures!
Israel was scheduled to attack on the 15th/16th of October. Today is 20th. All Israel secret was leaked.
Nothing surprising about Israel’s plans. Israel intended to fly fighter jets thru Syria and Iraq to conduct bombing in Iran
Stupid plan, as that will bring Iraq into the war. Equally, b4 Israel fighter jets get back to Navartin base to park-if they make it out of Iran alive-the whole of Tel Aviv would have been leveled to the ground.

So Israel no get long range?

LordAdam16:
He came. He saw. He died.

-Lord

Israel is now ready to attack Iran after much ado. I'd love to see the response to this.

Procashtips:
How many people dey Lithuania wey dem still dey japa?
Lithuania isn't that bad economically, so wetin make dem Japa to now being deported?

It isn't bad, but it isn't great either.

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
Nope. Kazakhstan is not a member of BRICS. Russia is the country hosting BRICS Summit 2024. It will be hosted in the Russian city of Kazan.

Oh. OK.

Vl3ly:
🇨🇳 Chinese President: The army should be ready

Xi Jinping: The military must fully strengthen training and preparation for war and ensure that the troops have strong combat capabilities.

Something hooge! Is coming.

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
BRICS 🇮🇳🇮🇳

I thought brics summit was meant to take place in Kazakhstan and not Russia. What happened?

LordAdam16:
Killing the heads of paramilitary groups is not the flex you think it is.
Nations have been doing it forever.

Why is Netanyahu begging for a second THAAD battery from the US?

He should go ahead and kill Khaled in Turkey.
He will be replaced. And the biting costs of that move will last long after he is buried.

-Lord

No mind that guy. Since after the explosion weh happenel underground Iran, all countries don deh respect themselves including Israel. Satanyahu don comport. If you punch me and it hurts, and I am looking for a way to punch you back without you punching me again, like small enough to not hurt you or make you hit me back but big enough to save my face so people will say he punched back whwn telling the story, omo I no strong joor. That is Israel right now.

LordAdam16:
The interesting part is that China, Russia, North Korea share a land border. Iran and Russia are Caspian Sea neighbors.
There is no chokepoint for the Hegemony to halt transfer of materiel and troops between all Four of them.
That's why the Axis Powers are all strutting like peacocks.

-Lord

Russia was very strategic when she was expanding. I read somewhere that Moscow was made fun for being a plain land and so them embarked on adding as many nations as possible to their country. Brilliant!

LordAdam16:
South Korean Intelligence confirm North Korea sent thousands of troops to Russia to gain battlefield experience.

Axis Powers moving mad.

-Lord

Omo the west hegemony just deh enter express.

tensazangetsu20:
That's your problem . My Spanish is fluent lol and I have good jobs. Notice the plural

You just deh pepper this guy...😂 😂 😂 Matrixreloded what do you have to say?

LordAdam16:
They already have enough fissile material to make dirty bombs.

I would say though that Khamenei really did not want nukes.
Like he was sincere about that. Iran has been under all sorts of sanctions since the Mullahs took over and he desperately wanted a respite. So Iran becomes more of a China or pre-Crimea Russia (in terms of economic relationship with the West) than North Korea.
He'd have the means to get a nuclear weapon but intentionally avoid completing the final step. Like Japan.

Netanyahu smashed his rose-tinted glasses late last month.
Any Iran watcher like myself would see that something flipped.
Iran will get a nuke guaranteed.

-Lord

I was happy when I saw Russia's serious warning to Israel to stay away from Iran's nuclear facilities. It tells a lot is going on underground. I do know they have the nuclear weapon done. But I want them to come out and claim it!

LordAdam16:
All of them in the leadership are marked men.
Israel will always try to kill them, they only need a pretext.

Also, for hard liners like Sinwar, it's always been about deleting as many Israelis before their inevitable demise.
Nasrallah became moderate as his profile increased and Haniyeh is a moderate.
They're tied at the hips with hardliners.

For instance, there are many in the Iranian military and leadership who did not want to confront Israel directly and had objections.
When Israel targets them, it does not separate the moderates from the hardliners.

Here are the events on October 5, two days before October 7. The Israelis killed 4 in the West Bank.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/5/israeli-troops-kill-two-palestinians-in-occupied-west-bank-clash
Israel is going to continue its brutal crackdown with the "Never Again" mandate and eventually someone will snap and say "f*ck it".

As you've alluded to, nothing in the last 70 years of occupation has done as much damage to Israel's global public standing as the last one year.
For as long as the martyr culture exists, they'll plan more attacks.
The best thing Israel can do is accept a Two State solution and make these hardliners the problem of the legitimate Palestinian government.

They already have the template with the Palestinian Authority and President Abbas.

But if Israel predictably continues the occupation, there will be more October 7.
The Sinwar/Nasrallah replacements will have bigger targets.
The Lebanon War will end and Hezbollah will avoid city bunkers or make them fortresses.
If the Mullahs come out of this intact, they'll carry out the most ambitious military upgrade in Iran's history and get a nuke.
I am very certain there will be a repeat.

It's sorta like if Nigeria wasn't currently independent.
You know damn well, the likes of Boko Haram and ISIS and bandits will be "freedom fighters".
They'll use opposition to the colonialists as some sort of legitimacy. The colonialists will also be brutal to the local population. T
hese errant jets bombing civilians will be more regular and possibly become intentional. And it'll all be framed in the context of an occupation or apartheid.
But by giving us independence, these elements are now our problem and we're crawling to former colonialists for help in combating them.

That's pretty much Gaza's armed resistance in a nutshell.

One more thing. Iran did not expect to be bloodied because of October 7.
It was supposed to be Hamas alone taking the brunt. Hezbollah was just meant to use the opportunity to test Israeli defenses not lose its entire military hierarchy. Outrage and hostages were supposed to have ended the conflict by now.
So it is in Israel's best interests to ensure that whatever they're starting with Iran ends in a regime change.
If it does not, Iran will 100% prepare for and instigate an all-out war after a ceasefire or whatever ends this current conflict.
Netanyahu made sure of that.

To illustrate, this quarter, Shin Bet has arrested 5 Israelis that were being recruited by Iran to assassinate Israeli officials.
It was not as frequent before Netanyahu started targeting IRGC higher-ups.
Eventually, they'll acquire more expertise from their GRU and ISI counterparts and be more successful.
So regime change is essential otherwise they'll looking at a very bloody near future.

-Lord

Iran better arm itself up now as there is no better time than now. Nuke or nothing!

Kingsnairaland:
It from the Bible and nothing like one corner write.
God speaks many things to his servant then put his future acts in the stories he speaks to them that how God has been doing from Genesis

That why Jesus read one part in the Bible and told those this part has been full filled in their eyes as he has come

Those who read that part won't ever believe God was talking about Jesus

Luke 4:17-21
describes Jesus reading a prophecy from Isaiah in Nazareth where he was raised.

The prophecy, says
"The Spirit of the Lord is upon me"
You can find it on

(Luke 4:18),

Jesus told us he appeared in the book of the prophet Isaiah. Which shows he was the one God was talking about in that part

By saying
He Jesus have fulfilled the prophecy.
God spoke about in the past

Baba shut the hell up.

Appleyard:
We have said it here before; drone technology changed the face of modern warfare.

No matter how big and powerful you are, some drones will always sneak their way into their target. The Ukraine-Russian war is the only war in modern history where drone technology has been used massively by both parties in the conflict. And from what will have seen so far, it's safe to say that while advanced missiles like the ones on hypersonic glide vehicles remain the most potent and brutal standoff strike weapon on the battlefield, drones are the most problematic and frustrating to handle because they (majority of attack drones) flies very low, making them difficult to detect and counter, and they usually come in a swarm, which guarantees that one or two would scale through no matter how.

The last point is even more frustrating for the receiving enemy: the majority of them are cheap in so much that even when the defending enemy is able to bring them down, it would be doing so at a very high cost, which, in most cases, is fifty to one hundred times higher compared to the cost of each single drone.

So, it is more painful if an enemy scores a major damage from a drone than when the damage was from a bomb.

It is the Lord's doings that Israel isn't sharing borders with countries like Iran; that place for don burn finish by the likes of Mr. shaheed and brother Lancet.

Even till date, those damn piece of metals are still giving Zelensky sleepless nights despite the highly layered Ukrainian defense setup.

Plus the Ukros have used water based drones to score some great hits against the Russians.

Drones respect nothing and nobody.

Succinctly written. I no miss your writeup at all. You and LordAdam16.

lastkingsman:
Can you shed more light on this?

He doesn't mean the UK government is scrapping it. He means people who has it, there's are expiring with no cos in sight.

penultimatee:
How please ched more light.

Do a little research on him by viewing all his previous comments.

Empiree:
.

"recent" don pass two weeks oh.

LordAdam16:
They've been littering the media space with too much propaganda.
Qassem was the Deputy DG under Nasrallah.
He has been the acting DG.

But they've been targeting military commanders and claiming they were Nasrallah's replacements.
Even the IRGC Quds #1, General Qaani who they claimed to have killed in their last assassination showed up at the arrival of the body of General Nilforousan in Tehran.

-Lord

😂 😂 Israel must hear word.

penultimatee:
ill love to tow your path.i need tutoring and how to go about it.

You will have to prepare to emplore vulgar in your writing and speaking for a start.

Vic2023:
🔴BREAKING | Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem:

Israel and those behind it are fighting and committing massacres, and we are in a situation that requires us to take a stand.

Our hope for victory knows no bounds.

Israel is an usurping occupying entity that poses a real danger to the region and the world.

Israel is an occupying entity built on killing and displacement.

Israel bets on the criminality that terrifies others, alongside the absolute support from America and the passage of time.

Palestinians have the right to take action to expel the occupation, shake its presence, and prevent its continuation.

The Al-Aqsa Flood has come after 75 years of occupation, and this is a legitimate right.

In Lebanon, we cannot separate Lebanon from Palestine, nor the region from Palestine.

The occupation lasted in Lebanon for 22 years and only left through resistance.

This is the same person Israel said they killed...😂 😂

Krismas:
So, if Maiko does not use fuel, what den does it use?

I think you are the one that's not getting what is going on here. They are trying to use the same narrative of Israel needing to refuel in case of attacking Iran on Iran. So if Israel will need to refuel, Iran should refuel. If Iran didn't refuel those ballistic missile, Israel too can use the same materials on their planes...

You deh waste time deh argue that guy, when he has something in mind to make you admit to. Leave that nincompoop.

LordAdam16:
The Russian Starship competitor is still in the design stages.

-Lord

OK. Unless so.

LordAdam16:
Starship is the largest rocket.
It has two stages (parts). The Super Heavy booster. And the Starship spacecraft.
The booster as the name suggests propels (boosts) the rocket to escape Earth's gravity.
Typically, boosters will fall off over the oceans and are disposable.

But for the first time with a rocket of this size, SpaceX is catching the booster.
So after launch, the booster returns back to the launch site and is caught by the arms dubbed Mechazilla.
It's nerd porn. My day is complete.

-Lord

I must say I am happy to hear this... I see why he's got ego the size of the earth's atmosphere.

LordAdam16:
With this launch he has surpassed the Russians.

-Lord

Really? I beg to differ.

LordAdam16:
You mad man Elon.
He f*cking did it.

Regex, your man has done it again.

Mechazilla has caught the Super Heavy booster! pic.twitter.com/6R5YatSVJX

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 13, 2024

-Lord

That man is tireless. I love his zeal, but he needs to meet the people who are masters in this area (Russia) or else he will be spending money like this.

Appleyard:
My friend, don't insult the Iron Dome.

That piece of metal simply developed a conscience and stepped aside to allow the Iranian missiles hit their targets.

😂 😂 😂 😂