₦airaland Forum

This is the same to true supporters of the 3 leading candidates.

I am waiting to see those who are returning to vote Kwakwaso, Sowore and co!

Op, God bless you for being realistic. This is exactly what I want anytime we are discussing politics. Research and unbiased opinion

onatisi:
2011 was different, there was no power play, and they willingly conceded power to gej after so much begging, persuasion, and agreement from obj. yes voters apathy also contributes but i think it is the population that makes them so powerful . i maybe wrong though

You very correct!

Raheeqilmaktoom:
People quoting 2019 elections forgetting a very important variable: Buhari.

Very correct!

yarimo:
Go and read land use act of every state, make sure you read and understand before quoting me

Land use charge against monetary policy? What are you talking about? Does governor of a state has power over monetary policy?

So many things are needed to be understood in this context.

For where?

garfield1:
While atiku may win katsina,tinubu will take kano

Ok.

LocalStandard1:
How do you feel after it does?

I will feel like, oh we have a president elect!!

The same thing goes to Kwakwaso, Atiku, Tinubu, Sowore and others.

Ttalk:
He will simply go back to no biafla no erection

Hmm!

garfield1:
Tinubu has won atiku

I can't agree with you on this. Kano' s result won't matter this time because it will be share. Katsina matters a lot now.

Always include the effect of BVAS in this election.

garfield1:
What are their names and posts? Is the pdp in Lagos not in tinubu pocket

This is the statement I expect from you when it comes to Lagos as far as this presidential election is concerned and the same should be directed to the APC in Adamawa in respect to Atiku presidential ambition.

These are the two biggest actors in this coming election.

Garfield, this is what I was telling you yesterday ooo! You think Atiku will struggle to win his state as a presidential candidate? No! no!! no!!!

When you know you can't win.

How will you feel if this doesn't happen on the election day?

yarimo:
Who is commercial bank not to obey court orders

What does that court order has on monetary policy?

Many of don't know anything about economics, and governance yet you openly show people the level you belong.

If supreme has power over the CBN, it then means that we can as well ask the CBN through the supreme court to print more naira notes for us and distribute for the masses for free so as to move everybody out of poverty at any time.

Why are we seeing poverty everywhere when we can ask the supreme court to order the CBN to money for us?

Stupid people full Rivers politics ooo!

yarimo:
That is very commendable from governor EL RUFAI

On what ground?

Did he has any right over the banking activities? Who is El Rufai to order commercial banks to accept old naira notes?

He should demolish all banks in Kaduna.

Na now day break?

You still never learn abi?

Na when Atiku win you go know say your own don finish! Just pray make Atiku no win ooo!

The battle for Kano supremacy continues!

North for the North, South West for the south west, South East for their own while Atiku may win South South.

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to rerun.

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a rerun

Very funny! Tinubu winning North West. You are still leaving in the past. No governor can influence election as things are now. BVAS has changed everything.

How to canvas or persuade voter to vote for your candidate is a major task for all parties.

NNPP will win Kano Guber!

sarrki:
El Rufai is a first class product go and verify

Ipobians are too arrogant

Being a first class doesn't mean anything relating to what we are saying here.

A first class in chemistry, IRS, CRS and all none economics related subject doesn't mean you are doing well in economics.

For your information, I am not talking about ethnicity here. What's my business with IPOB? For your information, I am not related to that region at all!

Let's be free from ethnicity conflict. Thanks!

Carmal90:
Wanted to quote garfied.

Sorry

Ok!

garfield1:
He was.in 2015 guber polls,he contested under pdp.I didnt say atiku won't win the north but the winning will take him no where.i think he will likely win the ss narrowly.

Ok oo

Carmal90:
Are you saying Shagari was fanatics?
If you leave emotions out of your analysis, you will have your answer.

But, everything will be clear in the next couple of days.
Both of us can't be wrong

You did not get where my point originated. I responded to a comment with that word.

Na una go suffer am, burn the banks if you like.

garfield1:
You cannot conclude totally that atiku is the reason why buhari won there in 2015 afterall both buhari and yaradua won him there in 2007.in that 2015,the governor nyarko also defected with most pdp people to apc.ribadu and marwa also defected.look at this obj and gej won Adamawa by over 200k votes yet atiku struggled to win with 50k...
Secondly religion matters in the north.Christians and Muslims tend to vote differently.ethnicity cannot be a factor in Adamawa because unlike east and west Adamawa has multiple ethnicities over 70.fulanis are the most numerous but not dominant.infact the fulanis are in a rivalry with others over the dominance of Adamawa politics.atiku claims fulani but his village actually chamba so his fulani heritage is doubtful...the apc candidate didnt resign from the PCC because of atiku.when that PCC was formed,she hijacked it and became the chairman and her allies dominated the committee.Aisha buhari and other stakeholders where opposing her.when she lost at the court,she stepped down so how can you say it was because of atiku?

3) you cannot say shettima has godfathers.his only godfather was sheriff and he defeated him in 2011 and now became his own godfather.unlike Adamawa where fulanis are not dominant,kanuris dominate borno and fulanis are a micro minority and cannot influence anything for atiku.now opposition parties have found joy in Adamawa compared to borno...if you say pdp structure will override obi votes,then the apc structure will equally override atiku votes.apc is very solid there and if you remove gov fintiri,it is more or less an apc state.now obj matched buhari in core north and defeated him in Niger and kad.he got 30% or more in all northern states except borno,yobe and zamfara.you know no one rigs like obj yet he failed to penetrate these states meaning there is something about them...

If you say atiku votes will be based on ethnicities,fulanis are minorities in almost all the states except gombe and maybe Adamawa.it means atiku won't win any state.buhari won in Niger,kwara,kano and fulanis are micro minorities here.even in sokoto,kebbi,katsina,jigawa hausas outnumber fulanis so you cannot say it is because of fulanis or ethnicity.

Many of those defecting to pdp may not like atiku.it may not even be because of atiku but because they lost out in apc.an average northern Muslim loves a religious zealot.atiku's liberalism and western appearance irkes them.there is a reason why atiku lost all the Muslim dominated states in 2019.his vp is igbotic and the north doesnt like that.tinubu mm ticket is very attractive to fanatics.shettima is a better Muslim than atiku..
Atiku is widely known is different from atiku is popular.he has no cult following and doesnt relate to the talakawas nor a religious bigot.he isn't pro north like kwankwaso and Buhari who even went to the south to defend northerners.he isn't a north west fulanis and notable northern political leaders with cult followings are usually fulanis from nw.see ahmadu bello,maitama sule,shehu yaradua,shagari,tofa,buhari,el rufai etc. They dont regard those from ne or nc much.

As you pointed out in 2003,the north loves honesty and sincerity.they dont betray.tinubu has paid his dues to the north and they owe him something.in 2007,2011 and 2015,he supported the north.without him,buhari won't be president and they are grateful and would want to repay him somwlehow.though they love their brother,the unity of the country is at stake and atiku winning will push nigeria to the brink.just like in 1999,2011,they will reach a compromise this week.as you can see,they are divided unlike before.some feel the north betrayed abiola and will want to compensate his scion tinubu.

If atiku is to win ne nw,it will be narrow just like tofa did in 1993.before buhari gained such cult following in the north,it took him years of work and contest.the north is not atiku stronghold,he has never won there.the north are not supporting buhari just because he is a northerner but because of some traits I mentioned earlier and atiku lacks that.if gej and obj that were not solid in the core north could get 35% against a buhari,think of what tinubu with his northern links will get against atiku....what is giving atiku levels is pdp structures

Atiku is not in contention in nc.it is between tinubu and obi.do people realize that atiku was in politics before buhari? How come buhari has more support? Fill in the gaps?

I don't want to say more than I have for me not to sound like a PDP member.

But I just like to tell you that Ribadu was never a PDP member.

But let's wait till after election. We will know who is right.

garfield1:
It may not be exactly so but it will be close.
Thank you for asking for my reasons.after I explain,I'll like to hear your own reasons.
Firstly,atiku has never been in control of gos state the way tinubu and shettima controls their states.after atiku finished his tenure as vp,he was shut out of Adamawa politics.he coukdbt influence anything there.in 2007,he lost there.in 2011 the pdp delegates in Adamawa didn't vote him.in 2015,his candidate for guber lost in the primaries.he won buhari in 2019 because of Christian voters and many of them are rooting for obi.many muslims in Adamawa will vote tinubu plus apc in Adamawa is formidable.that man struggles in Adamawa.
Similar thing in taraba.pdp bloc votes usually come from taraba south dominated by Christians and now it is divided.the popular bwacha and shiddi are in apc,others with obi.central usually go apc while north goes pdp narrowly.taraba is 60% Christian and you know they slightly prefer obi.atiku won these two states by 50k votes against buhari.now that it is a three horse race,is it not obvious that it will be tighter? These states were formerly gongola and tend to vote christians or southerners.gej and obj won here heavily while atiku struggled to win here.why is it so?

For bauchi,the voters here are fanatic muslims and as you know,fanatic muslims dont like atiku much.they love fanatics themselves like kwankwaso.atiku lost here heavily to buhari so if atiku is to win here with tinubu and kwankwaso in contest,it will be close.atiku cannot be much loved outside his state.again,the loyalty of gov bala is dodgy.

For borno,even when modu sheriff defected to pdp and worked against shettima in 2011,he still won massively.shettima in 2015 had more votes than buhari.same thing in 2019.same thing in yobe.both states are kanuri dominated and always vote for their kanuri massively.almost all kanuri leaders from kingibe to bukar Abba,geidam, monguno etc are behind tinubu.they missed aso rock in 1993,they won't want to miss it again.dont forget they have an age long rivalry with fulanis...
Pdp lowest votes right from 1999 has been from these states bar zamfara.
Fulanis are not majority in yobe.kanuris are.infact,kanuris are significant in parts of jigawa.fulanis are only majority in gombe and partially Adamawa.you hardly see any fulani from yobe.geidam,bukar,buni are kanuris.lawan is bade

I like your analysis but things may be different this time. Reasons

1. You have forgotten that the PDP have been in charge of Adamawa state since 1999 before 2015. Infact, Atiku's decision to leave the PDP made the APC to win the state for the first time in 2015. Hence, he returned and reclaimed the state in 2019. Don't forget, the regular slang of the North "Namu, Namu ne" and the son of the soil factor. If he can win the most popular and loved man in the North in Adamawa in 2019, I don't see anyone stopping him from getting more than 70 to 80%.


2. Concerning the religion, there is no way Obi can harm Atiku's chance in Adamawa. This is because, ethnicity, popularity and structure that the PDP have will override Obi as a choice in Adamawa. Don't forget, the APC Guber candidate declined her position in the presidential campaign committee. The reason is because she doesn't want to harm Atiku's chance.

3. Yes it is true that Tinubu has been in control of his state over the years. This can't be said about shetima because he has some God fathers in Borno politics namely kachalla, modu and others. Again, the PDP has never won in that state before. Though I am not saying the PDP will win here but If they are to vote by ethnicity, zeal to retain power or religion, the PDP will get up 40% or more here. There are lots of tribes in Borno, up to 20 ethnic groups there. Tinubu is not a sound or a good Muslim to many of the Muslim Northerners.

4. I can tell you again that no other party has won in Taraba state except the PDP since 1999. Don't forget, the majority of the northern politicians defecting to the APC may not be doing so just because of their live for Tinubu. They won't leave their son. I witnessed this in 2011 election when I was in the North. Recently one if the APC chieftain in Taraba defected to the PDP.

5. A Muslim fanatic will prefer to vote Atiku who converted his christian wife to a Muslim and ensure all his children are Muslims than Tinubu who doesn't know how to recite the common and the most popular chapter of the Quran.

6. Atiku is the second most popular man in the North after Buhari. Atiku has not been able to win the presidential election a number of times based on the Northern agenda. Let's take Boni Haruna the forma governor of Adamawa statement for example. He said " When Obasanjo wanted to contest in 2003 for his second term and Atiku Abubakar, who was his vice president, wanted to contest again, he even bought the form, but I told him to suspend the ambition.” Initially, most of the governors, I mean, 16 of us were with Atiku, and only 5 supported Obasanjo, but because the agitation toward Obasanjo then grew stronger, we all supported him.

This is not to suggest that we were being pushed by Atiku, but we had no desire for him to contest against his principal, Obasanjo, in 2003. In fact, all the governors that supported Atiku then already bought the 2003 presidential form for him.

They brought it to me, and I went to meet Atiku and told him to keep that form in his room because it would seem like a betrayal to Olusegun Obasanjo, who picked him among his peers to be his vice president, and now he wants to contest against him. I told him if God wants you to be president, you will definitely be the president of Nigeria, but not under these circumstances, and that was how this form did not see the light of day.

There are still many things I have observed in this coming election but I won't say it now.

Atiku will win the Northern states and south south while Tinubu will win the south west and Obi in the East. They will all battle themselves in north central.

That's my view.

garfield1:
Adamawa
Apc 25%
Pdp 55%
Lp 20%

Taraba
Apc 33%
Pdp 42%
Lp 25%

Bauchi
Apc 30%
Pdp 37%
Nnpp 28%
Lp 5%

Gombe
Apc 45%
Pdp 30%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 10%

Yobe
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0.11%

Borno
Apc 80%
Pdp 10%
Lp 7%
Nnpp 3%


Mynd44
Seun
Nplfmod
Obinoscopy
Mukina2
Farano
Rotation
Indispensable
Donphilopus
Afamed
Calmobserver
Majole
Yarimo
Ttalk
Ityp
Penguin2
Digitron
Spencekat
Immaculatejoe
Ihenzy

If this your prediction come to pass, 500k for you.


Bauchi, Taraba won't be this close.

What's your yardstick for awarding Atiku as little 55% in his state and Tinubu (Shetima factor) 80% in Borno and 70% Yobe?

Fulani are the majority in Yobe state. Yobe has over 90% of their population as Muslims.

See attached pictures below