₦airaland Forum

Just40:
Rana motors commission 70,000 units KIA vehicle assembly line in Accra as it has come to light that Ghana's dvla registered almost 50,000 brand new cars in the year 2022.

mad cow new cars in ghana is less than 5000

Kazikazi:
Gallivant come here for a man to man talk

More like an effeminate woman to woman talk.You of course don't have the stamina to train and run marathon.
One of human most difficult endeavours..those guy run 200km every week for 4 months..that before final race where you run very fast for 42kms..it takes incredible hardwork, dedication and mental strength. Like I told until Kenyans run the white man had declared black were genetically incapable of such discipline n dedication..such mental acuity was used in early 20th century to show white man superiority..black man could only do short races like western Africans..it was reasoned because they had weak mind.its only 20 years that white man has grudgingly accepted that Kenyans n Ethiopia have their mental discipline n dedication to train n run long distances

If Tinubu does the sensible thing of floating the Naira - which is now inevitable - you'll see it drop to 700 naira to usd.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-seen-strengthening-to-n680-per-dollar-in-2023/
“In 2023, exchange rate adjustment is inevitable,” said Rewane in his monthly presentation for December 2022, titled, ‘An Odd Year that Feels Like a Leap Year’.

He said the exchange rate adjustment will narrow the gap between the Investors and Exporters (I&E) forex (I&E FX) and the parallel market.

The gap between the naira/dollar exchange rate at the official and parallel market of the foreign exchange has continued to widen due to demand pressure.

The naira closed at the rate of N743 per dollar at the parallel market on Monday, while at the official market, dollars was quoted unchanged at N461.67. This shows a gap of N281.33 per dollar between the two markets.

Naira is overvalued - that overstate the nominal GDP - which is in USD. This is common sense 101.

Some economist think it's overvalued by 20%. I think it's close to 50%.

First indicator - is black market rate which is widely used in Nigeria and is the REAL exchange rate - official rate is 450 - black market rate is 750.

Then sweatheart USD rate for Nigeria Northern Business elite who have captured Abuja.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/naira-likely-to-be-devalued-by-20-in-2023-bank-of-america-says

maidaboi:
WOW what a bunch of nonsense
whatever makes you sleep at night

Mmhh - I doubt it. What do you export? Dont tell me ships and aicraft parts.

GeneralDae:
This is not factual. Non oil export does an average of 20- 25%. In 2021, it was 22%.

Nigeria total imports is around 50B; Kenya total imports 20B; - 2021 seems to be 52B versus 22B.
Nigeria total exports (oil is 95% of it) is 47B; Kenya total export is 11B;

GeneralDae:
Kenya with a total export of just 7.15 Billion dollars in 2021 ( with approx 50 million in population) can't be just 2. something less than Nigeria in GDP. What's your total trade volume? Too small. Your food production? Abysmal.

You don't have lots of foreign debt.
Last I checked Kenya had more foreign debt than Nigeria.

The real Naira rate is what black market rate is - 750 Naira to USD - that is where real market and supply forces of are.

You keep many windows of dollar rate - to provide bankster and dangotes opportunities to make money at expense of poor Nigeria.

A few connected importers/traders/banks - get buy dollars at subsidized rate - while rest of Nigeria who need money to pay schools fees, import stuff, pay medical expense - have to go backstreet - where they get dollar at twice the official rate.

I cannot think of any other reason not to freely float the Naira - except the Dangotes stranglehold of Nigeria economy.

The real value of Naira will be very close to the black market rate.

GeneralDae:
The reason we are not floating the naira is to continually control our foreign debt. If we remove fuel subsidy, even when we float the naira, it would fall back to around 550 naira which is the most likely real rate.

Freely float the Naira and you'll know the it's real value - and of course the nominal GDP of Nigeria.
The rest of the mumbo-jumbo you're writting dont make much sense.
As of now we know Naira is being artificially inflated - which artificially overstate the nominal GDP of Nigeria.

Again there are many ways to cross-validate or cross-reference Nigeria and Kenya GDP that shows Nigeria at best is 2. something bigger than kenya.

GeneralDae:
This doesn't make sense. The wide gap between official and parallel market began properly during COVID-19 in 2020. Before then, Nigeria was still a 400-500 Billion dollar economy just like it was in 2015.
GDP doesn't automatically deplete with exchange rate depletion. It doesn't work that way.

If an economy is big, a deplete in dollar rate could sometimes also likely correspond to a measurable increase in the rate of the local currency.

For example, revenues we were making in dollars in 2015 is almost thesame as the revenues we are making now in dollars, but in naira we have quadrupled that revenue. Same thing with trade in naira. Everything eventually balances out.

There are losses we suffer from the defending the official rate and a huge loss of foreign investors in our stocks and general market as well. If we unite the exchange rate or push it to 550 naira, we would stop defending the naira with millions of dollars from our foreign reserves and foreign investment climate would go back to 2019 levels. GDP stabilizes back to 500 Billion dollars.

Unlike the criminally minded Nigerians and Ghanians - Kenya is going to leverage it well earned reputation as hardworking well educated law abiding global citizens to export labour.

Kenya will aim to send 250K workers to German. The Canada, US, UAE, Saudi and seven other countries.

President Ruto announced that during an upcoming visit by the Chancellor of Germany, one of the treaties to be signed will include an agreement to provide labour in the European nation.

He noted that similar agreements will be pursued for Canada, the United States, the U.A.E, Saudi Arabia and seven other nations. Adding that the revenue collected from Kenyans in the diaspora (over Sh400 Billion/year) surpasses revenue from tea exports.

Nigeria economy if you use the real USD rate (750 Naira to USD) is half - about 200-250B - as I told you. Of course, you have Ghanian madness, where because Nigeria GDP is overcooked, you think everyone has cooked.

There are many ways to counter-check, validate and cross-reference data - and know what is cooked or not.

For example - Nigeria total banking asset is about twice Kenya (55-60B for kenya versus 100-110 for Nigeria) - Cement consumption about twice big (10M versus 20M)- name it. Check total telcom revenues from MTN, Glo, Airtel - compare to Safcom/Airtel/Telkom in kenya - about twice as big.

Conclusion - Nigeria real GDP is 200B - at best 250B.

South Africa or Egypt are real Africa giants - with 400B dollar economy - Nigeria is 3rd with 200-250B - followed by Algeria with 180-200B.
Kenya is 110-120B range.

Obaaderemi2:
Kenya's economy is very small, even with all the atrocious cooking it stubbornly remains small.

Long overdue...Kenya and Tanzania are looking to sell inefficient and loss making state owned companies as part of IMF-backed plans.

Tanzania has 298 parastatals worth $30 billion that make just $296 million.

Kenya has 349 and only 5% remit revenues to government.

GeneralDae2:
I wonder where you get this idea that Kenya is leading Africa in Crypto.

1. Nigeria - 13 million

According to Triple-A, Nigeria has more cryptocurrency holders than any other African country. Yes, in Nigeria, more than 10 million people own cryptocurrency despite the ban by the country’s apex bank. Nigeria is also the #1 country worldwide in terms of the number of people searching for “Bitcoin” and “Crypto” keywords on Google.

2. Kenya - 4.5million

Second on the list is Kenya, with an estimated 4.5 million people owning cryptocurrency. Kenya leads the way in terms of holdings and blockchain-related transactions and ranks among the top African countries for trading volume on peer-to-peer platforms. Kenya also ranks within the top ten worldwide on the topic of “cryptocurrency” on Google.

3. South Africa - 4.2million

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/top-5-african-countries-with-the-most-cryptocurrency-holders/2tvh7r5

Chainalysis of actual transactions is definite.kenya is ahead.Yes Nigeria banned in many international transactions and have to use third parties 6

Labor CS, Florence Bore, says Kenya has signed labor agreement with Saudi Arabia where about 130, 000 opportunities have been identified for qualified Kenyans to tap into.Gov is working to avoid dirty employment agents while building safe houses..following Philippines n many Asia countries that export labour while protecting their people

Kazikazi:
A kenyan brain at full display

Son,English has its part,no one is fighting English. Actually, English is the most important human language in the universe. In TZ,English is official language together with Swahili.But, its stupid to think Kenyans know English.No. kenya is not know as English speaking nation.You have your vernacular tongues which u are good at.In England, a kenyan is given English test before admission, that is what the UK did when they wanted to employ kenyan nurses.They gave them English test,out of hundreds kenyan nurses,about 10 passed.
English is not yours.

Then u talk of remote work.Good,but that is a drop I the ocean.
To develop a nation as poor as kenya,your focus should be on areas which can pull millions out of poverty, and that means you have to put your focus on agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and logistics.

Show me those 100,000 kms of fibre, you lying bastard.
Tanzania has longer fibre and stil growing,but u with no funds u talk of 100,000?
hohohohohohohohoho

Tanzania just don't know English. Don't get angry when confronted with facts.Kenya maybe not be native English speakers but we are very good in our native language, Swahili n English.Kenya fiber to home connection already exceed a million out of 12 million households n maybe another 2 million businesses enterprises. Kenya is working towards ensuring fiber reaches everyone soon.We have maybe 10m household with electricity meters..we will string fiber along the electricity line.That way kenya investment in education pays.Already kenya are well regarded in academic writing or cheating...Kenya are also leading in online work..crypto..of course Africa best quality of education. Tanzania please review your failed education system..you cannot teach kids in swahili for 10 years then switch to English in last four years...decide..stick to Swahili or English

Its rare to find west African with intention to comeback.I have met 70yr olds with no desire.They have give up after many hopeless try.Their kids definitely wont.In kenya almost everyone plans to come because outside of lack of jobs everything works.

Kazikazi:
Easy saying than actual thing on ground.

Bringing back the knowledge can't work that way.

Governments (African governments ) should come up with the program to Send some few folks away to gain knowledge and then impart it back home.This isn't easy since most Africans are unpatriotic and corrupt. Again,most African nations lack a long term visions on how to attain their goals. Example, A gov can decide to send few folks away for gaining knowledge, few years down the line,a new regime comes to power,they decide to not care about the program,and they start their new thing.Fast forward few years,the folks in a foreign land are marrying foreign women,taking those new citizenship,and the whole program dies. Or the few tough ones who decides to return,they come back,and the new regime don't care about them

That's what happens in Ghana and most of Africa. You get a Ghanaian in US doing a brain surgery,and Africans are going to US daily for medical treatment, but the same Africans can't go to Ghana for medical treatments while u have a huge number of Ghanaians in diaspora performing the same surgeries

The ones in diaspora and the gov back home are not in "sync"

Kazikazi:
Yes exporting labourers and other low skilled folks should be temporary while u are busy at fixing economy,and more importantly fixing the education system which made these folks to remain unskilled

mostly educated people immigrate which invalidate your claim. The jobs come from investment. Poor country cannot get investment until it saves.The country start to save when people have 1 or 2 kids.They leave money in the banks.This deposits is lent to people with viable business ideas.Those people create jobs.That economic takeoff.For now we have to relie on foreign debt ,foreign investment and export labour. In near future banks will be awash with local cash at cheap rate to dished out to anyone with half baked idea..to create industries and firms...jobs start becoming plentiful..pressure to immigrate eases

Kazikazi:
And the same remittances push up local inflation

Yes. I think focus should be on remote work...many young Kenyans who write n speak good English are doing well earning money in their pajamas. This future of work.That is why Kenya is investing in 100,000kms of fiber and creating digital economy. Tanzania you need to learn England bro.Come for English teachers from Kenya..who can teach in Swahili

Kazikazi:
:

Of course anything in life has some positive side.
Yes,migrants can send money and do something back home.

But the bad side is always bigger especially for African professionals who mostly don't return.

Remittance also dries up after one generation as the kids will have no attachments to Africa and will become African Americans.Exporting Labour should be stop gap measures as you fix your economy to generate jobs.Its more terrible to keep people you can't gainful employ

GeneralDae:
There's also the positive side to brain drain especially students going to further their studies. It brings in foreign investments later from successful immigrants.

Our tech space in Nigeria is at least 60% dominated by Nigerians who went to the likes of U.S.A and U.K.

China and India have also utilized this to their advantage.

Yes if they relocate back..definitely. Chinese did the same.

Just40:
it's not a loss when your economy is gaining massively from it.

It's a big contribution to the world most developed countries economies.

How does big contribution to advanced economies develop Ghana.You need to look out for your own interest..including mental health

Kazikazi:
That's brain drain.It's a huge loss to these developing African nations
Nothing to celebrate

Yes if you're exporting doctors n engineers n professional..but exporting house maids n drivers to Saudi Arabia is not.Kenya will focus on exporting maids,plumbers,drivers, operators to mostly middle east

GeneralDae:
I'll check again for the data but while Kenya is doing well lately in terms of remittances, I think Ghana has the advantage over Kenya going forward because of this huge interest of the black Americans in Ghana.

Kenya this year should be 4.5b..Ghana 4.2b or around. Black American go to Ghana and settle in Kenya after realising Ghana is undeveloped zoo.Kenya professional are getting more online work with all forex n crypto trading.In next 5yrs kenya is focusing on formal exports of labour. Kenya current figures underestimate remittance received as they many efficient money transfer options..Treasury minister has alluded to changing methodology to track more.

Saddamochieng00:
The guy has been fooling people here all this time. Wonder why he can't ever post anything that isn't touristy.

Outside dar n areas bordering kenya rest are one huge underdeveloped areas.Even tourism areas he post are kilimanjaro at Kenya border n serengeti which border maasai mara.They only developed because tourist access it from kenya which has advanced basic infrastructure. The chagga , tarimes, luos,maasai who are better off trade and immigrate with/to Kenya...rest of Bongolala is huge wilderness

Just40:
Egypt
Morocco
Nigeria and
Ghana accounts for 70% of remittances to Africa

Kenya should have overtaken Ghana this year

You wont believe it - best part of TZ are those in northern near kenya border (Chagga-maasai-mara) - and they areas at southern border of kenya - are some worse - with Maasai mostly.

You could say without kenya influence/infra/trade - that has given some positive spin to it's northern region - TZ is hell hole. Outside the few highways - it just waste land without infrastracture.

Saddamochieng00:
You can screech all you want and pull up all sorts of irrelevant newsstories and blogposts but facts will remain to be facts. Now can you explain to us why bandit infested and drought ridden Turkana fares off way better than the most productive areas in your country?

1) Kenya is more food secure than TZ. The few areas in Kenya suffering regularly food shortages are in arid regions and are battling climate change.
2) Kenya started tackling population since 1970s. Tanzania yet to start. Kenya saw it drop from 8 (world highest in 1980s) to now about 3 kids per woman. Tanzania like Nigeria is stuck where it was.
3) Educated people definitely have less kids - but the most important factor that reduce child birth - is reducing mortality rate - people generally have more kids if they suspect their chance of survival is low - so they are spreading the risk. That is why after war - you see baby booms.
4) Kenya knows it at cusp of economic take-off and has been taking steps toward with. Our focus is now on vocational training to equip kids with technical skills. Kenya TIVET colleges have discounted teaching of business courses. Soon we will have 3 million kids being trained in practical technical skills.

Fertility/less kids is most important (greatest predictor of a family success). Followed by education (greatest denominator or predictor of individual success). Basic infrastructure (probably greatest predictor of a nation success). The rest we can argue about .

Of course I dont see how TZ can overtake kenya - even if it got mineral bonanza.

Kazikazi:
I asked you a simple stuff. Is there a country which took off while starving? If there is none,that means kenya is too far behind to think about economic take off. You need first to learn how to feed yourselves.

And feeding yourselves won't happen within a year or 2. You need not less than a decade to move from a hungry nation to a food sufficient and then to a food exporting nation. Tanzania is now a food exporting nation.

Then u will need to move away from theoretical education of learning history and arts stuff to a real education which you concentrate on skills and science stuff.That is what TZ is currently doing.

As a nation becomes skillfull,raw materials will be needed to support local industries.That is where agricultural revolution is needed.Tanzania is now now busy into revolutionize her agri sector.

When agri sector is booming while supporting local manufacturing industries, a 2 digit economic boom is inevitable. Tanzania will achieve sustainable a 2 digit economic growth before 2030,actually it should happen from 2026.

Fertility rate is last.when people are educated,fertility rate drops automatically. But a kenyan will start to deal hardly with fertility instead of starting with food production

Obaaderemi2:
Manipulation is what I call this. It's a bubble which will burst anytime.

You're throwing many balloons in the air...in the hope one will fly.Ruto engaged 600 public policy experts during his campaign and has hired the very best brains in economics , finance, security, name them to advisors.On his own Ruto is incredibly intelligent. DO NOT BET ON Ruto regime not delivering.its combination of intelligence n work ethics..brilliant folks working 15hrs daily.Kenya is more than okay..actually it's now driven intellectual..with phd as minimum to engage Dr Ruto.Ruto is like Obama or Meles incredibly brilliant,well spoken and very strategic & tactical. YOU CANNOT BEAT SUCH MEN.Ask uhuru and Raila who combined with gov machinery and saw dust..kibaki was brilliant but old n lazy n drunk.Ruto doesn't drink, is brilliant and work 15hrs a day..real work..no BS.Just listen him today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny2jgGMMtDA

Ruto articulate issues with Mo Ibrahim - the kind of cerebral leader Africa deserve. Ruto says we will never exploit oil or coal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny2jgGMMtDA

Fertility is the most important of all factors including in eliminating starving. People when they have one or two kids - a precondition for economic take-off - rarely starve. Again food security is a money or poverty - not food availability issues. In the high seas there are gazillion of foods being shipped left right and center.

Tanzania has to deal with TFR - ensure every family has 1 or max 2 kids - with Magufuli urging you to bear like rats - you are going nowhere.

China were able to take off faster than any country has ever done because of their radical 1 child policy - it's now giving them problems.

India couldn't take off until now - when families have 1 or 2 kids .

Of course idiot from Tanzania with little education will see China and India 1.5B people - wonder why they cant also grow. It's about the structure of the population - you can be 10B - but if every family is 1-2 kids - you will have more working people - than kids being fed, clothed, etc.

You will be able to save more, invest more, clothe them better, educate them better, etc - these things when done in national scale - transform a society.

Kazikazi:
I should leave u.
At first u talked about fertility. When I disapproved you.The game changed into now about the speed or about loosing power during take off.

Anyway,of all the nations which managed to take off,have you seen one which during the take off,it took off while starving?

If u answer that,I will engage u further

I am shocked by Ruto decision - either Ogolla explained himself so well - or it turn out kibochi was the main saboteur so much Ruto couldnt extend his term.

In the end long live Daudi Tonje who in four years reformed the KDF to be what it is - a professionally run force.

Ogolla begin with a trust deficit haven fallen short in Bomas and we can only expect he will pull up his socks.

Saddamochieng00:
What's your thoughts on the new CDF. Do you think he's still tied to the Azimio guys?

I am sure you see many things in your delirium so I wont counter it.

Just40:
I didn't see Kenya among the hardest working countries on the continent... The productivity of a Kenyan is below that of every country here.

Hello, Enjoy the Fascism in kenya.
In sensible countries, economics 101 is allowed to work and market forces eventually correct itself to drive inflation down.

This kind of Fascism explains the huge flight of capital from Kenya.

Most countries never hit the cruise level of 40k. Majority end up at 10K or less. They take off - and they lose power - and they decide to navigate their way around 5,000 to 10,000usd per capita like South Africa.

From 10k to 40k - that requires very high quality of education - Veitnam will do it. I doubt India and Bangladesh will.

Kazikazi:
Those rapid growth are meant to take a nation into a higher income category which is a developed status.You don't take off and hit a mountain as u said.Taking off as u see India and Vietnam is what will move them to a developed world.Both are in middle income, so if they take off,definitely they are moving into another world.

The same way goes to a plane.It take off to another atmosphere where all clouds are below and everything becomes new. If webelieve your story of tasking off and remain where u are (middle income ),then that is not a real take off