₦airaland Forum

I cant make head or tail of your response.
IMF and Sane man should come to same conclusion.
IMF staffers are you and me - they are not malevolent forces - but their treatment regime is quite something.
You dont need IMF to tell us common sense.
There was no IMF in Kenya in 2019.

Again first of all dont bring NIgeria into any such macro-economic debate - you country is BIGGGGGGGGGGGGG JOKE.
Debt servicing long exceeded 100%. In 2019 it was 70%.
Nigeria federal gov has printed how many trillion of Naira - 30 trillion - 50B dollars to pay salaries!

Now let move to Kenya.

From 2018/2019 we started to cross the redline - From 55% - but have thankfully kept it 65% - it fluctuate with USD of course.

Kenya gov has bring it down to 55% - and that without debt refinancing.

In 2019 at least we could refinance our debt - that is now out of question - as international debt market is closed for entire Africa continent.

So Kenya gov has only one way out - TAX kenyans - Kenya have to pay through this.

Otherwise if we default - we join GHANA - and we will have to lose a whole decade and half.

Of course if we were a Zoo we can simply print KES like Nigeria - pay salaries and pay domestic debt

We would of course create inflation and poverty like Nigeria has been doing the last decade at INDUSTRIAL SCALE.

Now NIgeria is undisputed world poverty capital.

Obaaderemi2:
You only get angry when you are losing an argument. Don't cry. Your juvenile insults are water off a duck's back to people like me. I'll continue exposing your ignorance backed by actual cases.
Even on that thread it was clearly pointed out to your illiterate brain that your debt was unsustainable. You chose instead to listen to the imf. The same imf that is well known for wrong analysis. The same imf that didn't see Greece and Argentina happening until too late. Your debt to GDP is already close to 70%. Your keep taking loans to repay loans because your economy is practically too broke to sustain your debt profile.

But then how can you survive without loans when all you have is tea? I said it on that same thread that your leaders are only able to raise revenue by overtaxing Kenya's poor people. Now Ruto has taken that a notch higher yet he is still having problems paying federal government workers. Something that has never happened in Nigeria. Kenya is going to default by 2024. You already defaulted on some loans. Right now you are under the boots of imf.

You will start paying debt in 2027 - and will complete debt restructure in 2037. IMF will be in Ghana for 15yrs - 2037.

When a country default it well known. Even a mad man will know Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia have defaulted.

Nigeria has not - they have chosen to print Naira and nationalize their debt. They are luckier because unlike stupid Ghana they didnt take lots of external debt.

Just40:
No IMF program run for 10 years

COVID did not run your economy down, debt did and it happened before covid.


Kenya has defaulted on so many loans already and the crisis has just begun... Your govt just took 3 billion bailout from the African bank and is waiting on the IMF

From Kenya and Nigeria anecdotal stories - Ghanians are dull, not aggressive, stupid but well peaceful . That I have heard repeated several time by youtubers who have been to Ghana.

The description is very similar to Tanzanian and any country that dabbled in communism before.

At least Nigerians are very aggressive and entrepreneurial - makes the Zoo function despite the dysfunctionality - Somalis are in different class with Eritreans (those are real merchant tribes).

Just40:
we shipped them to Kenya and that his how Kenya became a skeletal dwarf nation. You're a specimen

I listen to data - if I listened to your crazy ideas all these years - I would be as insane as most of your country mate.

Just40:
Keep deceiving yourself

They run some of the largest investment funds on the continent spent on African projects

IMF left Ghana in 2019. In 2020 you should have checked yourself into IMF emergency room - even South Africa went to IMF then.

IMF was created for COVID like blow down. Kenya was smart to go to IMF in 2020 after COVID messed up the macro-economics. Now we are out - without defaulting.

Ghana - IMF is coming for 10yrs at minimum.

In 2020 - you were acting smart - running to Eurobond - when kenya was running to IMF. Ohoo our credit rating will take a beating if we go to IMF - now Ghana credit rating is D - DEFUALT. Kenya is B

Just40:
For Kenya past 3 years, IMF have been busy running the affairs of Kenya with 2 bailouts and the third one is on the way.

The IMF has not been in Accra for the last 5 to 6 years...

Now you can choke of your debt Kenya.. you're broke spending 80% of revenue on debt servicing. That's real crisis

I prefer you tell us about your dwarfs.

Just40:
Black South Africans have done better hustling and creating good business than black Kenyans.

Now you can end your typical useless rants ... Kenyans are lazy and with no entrepreneur spirit. They ain't driven

Maybe Mauritus now. Those arab nations dont invest much in SSA.

Just40:
It goes like this

SA
Egypt
Morocco
Algeria
Mauritius

Your next delusional joke

Again obaboon - I only call you that when you behave like a baboon- you have my attention - let go to this thread - 2019. If you have an English compression problem - I can help.
https://www.nairaland.com/3327789/kenya-ahead-nigeria-all-aspect/5527#83528815

Obaaderemi2:
When you revert to insults I know you are crying.
You are blaming Uhuru for your woes today, the Ghanaian you always insult and I broke Kenya's debt problem to you for years here only to get insults from you. Now you are roasting Uhuru. At least Uhuru didn't owe salaries.

Now, Nigeria never delayed salaries, that's a Kenyan thing. Now Ruto is overburdening Kenyans with more taxes and removing subsidies, imf scheme.
It's about to get a lot worse for Kenya.

As for Nigeria, we are fixing our refineries and just got a brand new one. There's going to be a freeflow of fuel and there will be export of refined products. It will save us a lot. Then there's a better president coming on board this month. And oil keeps doing well not to forget Nigeria is more of a gas giant than an oil giant.

Oho Obaboon this what I wrote in 2019. The resident mad man here was cheering his country to inevitable predictabel collapse - GHANA and GHANIANS


The third question? Why is kenya doing debt-refinancing. This one is the easiest. SO WE DO NOT BECOME ANOTHER GHANA - an IMF colony.

We know at our level of (under) development - a low middle class country - our debt to gdp - should be around 50% - with debt repayments not exceed 30% of the revenues/budget. That is what prudent debt management demands.


So when our debt to gdp started to approach 60% - from around 55% - we stop debt leveraging - and started debt refinancing. Once our GDP grows - and our debt to gdp drop below 50% - we will start debt LEVERAGING (taking in new debt)

debt refinancing is used by many countries including US, China and even private companies
Here is Apple - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/apple-pockets-cheap-debt-refinancing-heres-the-big-money-lesson.html

What it mean is basically your borrow new loans at better terms - and don't really get the cash - but use the loan to retire the old expensive loans.

One example is our last eurobond..in 2019...we took it and use parts of the proceed to retire the other eurobond.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Treasury-gets-Sh125bn-loans-to-refinance-debt/539546-5092412-r8wb35z/index.html

http://www.treasury.go.ke/media-centre/news-updates/608-kenya-successfully-issues-us-dollar-2-1-billion-euro-bond-on-15th-may-2019.html

"We reduced debt by paying off an already existing debt and took a fresh loan; so no change in debt stock to the extent of the maturing loan repaid.

"This is called liability management in international finance circles,” Treasury secretary Henry Rotich told Business Daily.

This what PRUDENT debt MANAGEMENT REALLY IS ALL ABOUT.

“There’s no addition in debt stock,” Dr Sirima told Business Daily. “The whole idea is to manage costs and risks. It is purely a debt management operation.”

We cannot procure new loans like a drunken Ghanian sailor when we are already near the red line (60%) - Ghana plays around 75% (and this year despite rebasing will exceed 60%). That is why IMF is always in Accra because you cannot manage your finances

And you're thinking of borrowing a century bond smiley smiley - how will you repay all those loans!!!!!!!!!!! or you think there are free money out there.

That was few years ago. I think you're now mostly retreating and divesting.

Again when it comes to Africa countries investing in other Africa countries - Kenya is second to South Africa.

AfriqueDuZuid:
SA investment is only beat by only USA, China, UK, france, Germany i think also Netherlands UAE

Unemployment is unemployment - it doesnt matter if formal or informal - you're simply asked if you did anything the last few weeks. It appear South Africans just sit and wait for welfare cheque? or depend on parents?

Most of unemployment is on black youths.

Meanwhile foreigners who come to South Africa - hustle - and are the RSA informal economy - Zims & Somalis.

Black South Africa have huge cultural problem - they dont have usual Africa entrepreneurship or informal hustling. The Boer seem to have emasculated South Africans black.

AfriqueDuZuid:
7

On all countries those who have given up is not included in the official unemployment rate.

Many countries include the informal sector employment including kenya

South Africa does not, it uses the International standards used by major economies

Obaboon, now that you have my attention. If I recall from 2018 - everyone in kenya with half a brain - knew kenya was once again starting to go back old 1990s (Nigeria is permanently stuck in a mess - you wont know).

We told Uhuru to stop borrowing - and focus on debt management. But well he wanted to steal before he retired - so didnt do quite a good job in managing our back

Let go back to this thread- this is 2019.
https://www.nairaland.com/3327789/kenya-ahead-nigeria-all-aspect/5527#83528815

Obaboon, you are really trying to shine
Let get some facts right.
1) Debt is not a problem. It's a leverage.
2) Uhuru regime in 2013 - inherited debt at very low levels - 40% or so to gdp - with debt servicing at 24% - that is what Kibaki handed him.
3) Uhuru was right to borrow - until 2018/2019 - when we started crossing 50% to debt gdp - 30% debt servicing ratio.
4) From 2018/2019 - I told Uhuru gov to go slow - to switch to debt refinancing or debt management - basically borrow to repay loans.

When it come to Nigeria - you debt problem has always been an issue - delayed salaries and unpaid pension are as old as Nigeria.

Evidence is here in this thread - 2019 this is what I said - way before covid.

Obaaderemi2:
He doesn't know anything. When Kenya was borrowing and spending the loans like a drunken soldier we told him his country was borrowing to pay salaries and would soon be broke. He wrote lengthy articles to counter us. Now Kenya owes salaries and is on the brink of default.

AfriqueDuZuid:
It's actually 32% now

10 percent have given up looking for jobs..expanded unemployment is 43%.South Africa continues to self imolate.

Kenya outward investment at 2 billion dollars..now focused to Ethiopia..from usual Tanzania and Uganda.I believe outside of fast retreading South Africa Kenya is sub Sahara biggest internal investor.Nigeria I doubt has the depth and consistency outside banks and dangotes.https://nation.africa/kenya/business/ethiopia-topples-uganda-tanzania-for-kenya-investments-abroad-4227900

ImpregnaTor:
I love this guy

He seem to know a lot

When will Nigeria take off? Honest prediction

2060..southern Nigeria can take off today if gov fixes electricity,insecurity and basic infrastructure. The north is hopeless.North need to stop breeding like rats n to start going to proper schools..not madrassa.

By 2030 - China would have turned half their cars to EV - Europe and others will be on it too.

You think Dangote spend his 7 billion without expecting to earn profit.

Continue with Oil - you've been at it - since 1950s - with little to show for it.

Kenya we have officially discontinue oil exploration and production.

We are going to become Africa 1st Net Zero carbon emitter.

Oil has no future - wait until all the cars become electric.

GeneralDae:
26 Billion dollars debt? Lol. Dangote himself has spent over 7 Billion dollars in this project.
95% of the lenders are Nigerian Banks whose CEO's are Dangote's business cliques. So no much pressure as they could decide to reduce their interest rates through negotiations.
Dangote already signed with Nigerian Government to buy a part in naira and supply that part in naira.

Oil has not much future in 20 years? Lol.
Don't be fooled, oil would be relevant in the next 50 years.

Price of Dangote cement for 50kg (1 bag) – NGN 3,600 – NGN 4,500.

Kenya cement is 600shs - 5 dollars.

ItooWorWor:
Lies Kenya cement sales for more than 600ksh at retail.


And where did you get 10dollar for Nigeria cement

It depends. If you were exceeding your OPEC quotas - definitely refining would be profitable.
For now all the refining profit - will go to Dangote - as he is choking in debt - and need to repay 26b dollars.

So Nigeria need to race towards overproduction of crude oil - so the excess beyond OPEC quotas - can be directed to Dangote.

Oil has not much future in the next two decades.

GeneralDae:
Refined crude (PMS, Diesel, Petrochemicals) and just raw crude, which is more profitable?

Nigeria will only benefit in forex term once they EXCEED their OPEC quotas.
Right now they cannot even meet OPEC quotas.

Thanks to vandalism, under investment and stealing of crude.

Nigeria OPEC limits are more than 2 million barrels a day.

Now they are luckly to do 1.3-1.5m.

5 dollars per 50kg bag...around 600shs at retail price - 450 shs at wholesale.
10 dollars in Nigeria for similar bag - more than 4000 naira at retail.

Those are facts easily to check.

Dangote is kiling your economy and you're here celebrating.

ItooWorWor:
What is the price of cement in Kenya compare to Nigeria again

You lose 300K barrel in forex.
You gain 300K of refined fuel.
Zero sum game.
Now Nigeria economy and people will pay off Dangote 25B dollars.
And the man is vampire.

If it was gov owned refinery maybe you will celebrate

But knowing Dangote - I pity you

GeneralDae:
If it would start immediately after the inauguration, I don't think it would operate at full capacity ( that is most likely 2024), but if it begins by producing 350,000 bbd while we keep working on our existing refineries, then it's no problem.

We produce around 1.3 million bpd crude as at March 2023. We can give Dangote 300,000 bbd to supply the Nigerian market in naira until 2024 and we sell 1 million bpd to the international market, which is a win win.

Note: Dangote would not only produce petrol but Diesel and petrochemicals.

Nigerian Government also has a 20% stake in it in a PPP.

How is Nigeria now when it produced it own cement versus when it imported.

Are you buying cement at almost twice kenya.

Use your brain Dangoteland slave.

ItooWorWor:
I'm sure you got all this trash from your anus.






From it won't be completed to it will rip us nonsense rvp on the beat.

Dangote refinery was supposed to be completed in 2019 - now we in 2023 - and has overshoot the cost - by 10B dollars.
I am not sure what excitement is about - Dangote will rip Nigeria apart.
And in terms of forex impact - Zero impact - Dangote will take your crude oil that was be exported - add value by refinery.
So you'll have less forex from export of crude - and you'll save from importing from India and rest.

And where you problems begin - Dangote like to sell more expensive than if you had imported from efficient refiners.

ItooWorWor:
Watch him wail with long epistle

Typical Ghanian - the obtuseness that Youtubers talk about when referring to Ghana. Bunch of iiodiots with low IQ.

vaxx:
Another idiot on the loose , gasoline cars are different from electric cars therefore they can't be numberd together.

Anyway kantanka manufactured and assemble cars idiot .


Cars are combination of different factor . Originally , the technology that goes into it made the product of many different outcome

They are still foreign brands. You may have improve local component but you still dont have a South African car. How can poor little Ghana have one - Katanka - and Innosson - are usual west african nonsense.

AfriqueDuZuid:
We make them check out ford in Pretoria, their engines are made ina factory close to the plant. Even bmw components, wiring.... Volkswagen steel at a mine nearby

We are talking electricity - not energy - what an IDIO>T

Just40:
I know knowledge is far from you

This was in 2020... Now it's at 1000kwh

Kantanka first doesnt manufacture anything. Secondly get off drugs son. The 4,700 assembled cars include Kantanka.

These are just CDK/FBU/SBU. Katanka does counterfeit of cheap chinese cars that are just rebadged.

Even South Africa dont make cars - they mostly assemble them. I dont know of any South African car brand.

vaxx:
You are only limiting your research to modern day gasoline cats , what about electric cars manufactured by kantanka.

car ssembly in Ghana is not a new thing...Briscoe's,neoplasm,cfao etc used to assemble cars and buses in the mid seventies I am sure you don't have number for that.

If kenya that grows half it wheat is begging - how about Ghana that doesnt even know how wheat crop look like. Again if you have data - not your online vommit - I am happy to engage my brains.

At least we try in Kenya -consumption of about 900,000 tonnes per year, and an annual wheat production of approximately 350,000 tonnes.

Ghana - Zero wheat production.

Just40:
Meanwhile Kenya is busy begging around the world for wheat and struggling to buy rice or corn.

Try explaining why a 50kg bag of wheat in Kenya cost 48 dollars averagely while the same thing costs less than 30 dollars in Ghana

The next grow some barley - at least get drunk from your own beer - if you cannot eat your own bread.

Poor little Zoo - grow wheat - at least for a change

Look at kenya wheat farms - overlooking Mt kenya