₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
I am talking about sustainability not a one off thing that will go back to status quo within few years, in the next 10 years do you think a company whose stock price appreciation is not backed by numbers will continue to sustain their elevated share price?

Maybe you should read my original message again, I never disagreed with Osita's message, I even commended it. I only stated that numbers alone don't drive SP on NGX

The core of my point is , the present day metrics is not the only factor that drives SP on NGX . The sugar in question is presently on FULL BID . If we were to go by the metrics, it ought to be on full offer like TOTAL or GEREGU

Sustainability is another thing entirely. I re-affirm the present day metrics alone do not drive SP on NGX. My 12 months projection for Sugar still holds - N120 and NASCON - 200.

We collect the bag first and worry about sustainability later.

Again, it is not a buy recommendation.

emmanuelewumi:
Really, @ numbers are merely academic exercise?


Numbers are not merely academic exercise in business and investment if you want to build a long term sustainable value and wealth through business or investment

You misconstrued my message, I'm a number person , I will be the last person to call number a mere academic exercise

My point is , some things transcends the present numbers you are seeing and I listed some of those things. I made an example of Ellahlakes , and I said if we're to be judging by present day numbers, Ellah will be in negative

To rest this matter, I know things most people don't know about Sugar and if you believe solely on present day numbers, you will only miss an opportunity

Today's Sugar full bid means something. I will say less

This is not a buy recommendation for anyone.

I rest my case

nosa2:
This message will not age well.

Sugar full bid this morning is already doing justice to the message

Follow The Money

Follow The Money

Lol

ositadima1:
Let me focus strictly on Dangote Sugar, because once you strip away market momentum, the numbers tell a much more constrained story.

Starting with operating performance. In Q3-2025, Dangote Sugar generated about ₦43bn in operating profit (EBIT), while finance costs were roughly ₦30bn in the same quarter. That immediately tells you something important: about 70% of operating earnings was absorbed by interest expense. So even before talking about growth or valuation, the business is operating under heavy financial pressure.

If you annualise Q3 operating performance conservatively, EBIT comes to roughly ₦170bn. Applying a normal Nigerian corporate tax rate of 30%, normalized after-tax operating profit (NOPAT) is approximately ₦119bn. That is the sustainable earning power of the operations before reinvestment and financing effects.

Now look at what those earnings are generated on. As of September 2025, total assets stood at about ₦1.02 trillion, with cash of roughly ₦80bn. Removing cash gives operating assets of approximately ₦936bn. When you divide normalized NOPAT by invested capital, you get an operating return:

₦119bn ÷ ₦936bn ≈ 12.7% ROIC

That number matters only when you compare it to the cost of capital.

To estimate the cost of capital, start with equity. Nigeria’s long-term risk-free rate is around 15%. Add an equity risk premium of about 10%, and apply a beta of roughly 1.1 for a leveraged consumer industrial business. That gives a cost of equity of:

15% + (1.1 × 10%) ≈ 26%

Now look at debt. Based on reported finance costs and outstanding borrowings, Dangote Sugar’s pre-tax cost of debt is roughly 18–20%. After the tax shield, that comes down to about 13%.

Given the company’s capital structure, roughly 70% debt and 30% equity in economic terms, the weighted average cost of capital works out to:

(30% × 26%) + (70% × 13%) ≈ 17% WACC

This comparison is critical. Dangote Sugar’s ROIC of ~12–13% is below its WACC of ~17%. That means, on a purely economic basis, the business is not currently creating value with growth. At best, it is treading water.

Growth also requires reinvestment. Even assuming a modest 4% long-term growth rate, and using the current ROIC level, the reinvestment requirement is:

Reinvestment rate ≈ g ÷ ROIC
≈ 4% ÷ 12.7% ≈ 31%

Applied to NOPAT, that means Dangote Sugar must reinvest roughly ₦37bn every year just to sustain low-single-digit growth. That reinvestment comes before any free cash is available to capital providers.

After reinvestment, free cash flow to the firm is approximately:

₦119bn − ₦37bn ≈ ₦82bn

That is enterprise-level cash flow, before debt service. And this is where the balance sheet becomes decisive.

Financial liabilities are still above ₦736bn, while cash is under ₦80bn, leaving net debt of roughly ₦650bn. With this level of leverage, a significant portion of enterprise cash flow is structurally redirected to lenders. The Q3 interest burden already demonstrates this reality in practice.

Cash flow confirms the picture. Despite reporting profits, operating cash flow remains weak and at times negative, meaning the business is still not self-funding. It continues to rely on refinancing, short-term borrowing, and working-capital movements rather than internally generated surplus cash.

This is why enterprise value on its own can be misleading here. Yes, EV captures the whole business, but when ROIC is below WACC and leverage is high, enterprise value does not automatically translate into equity value creation. The economics are constrained by financing, not optics.

On backward integration, the financial statements are very clear. Biological assets are about ₦18–19bn, which is less than 2% of total assets, and that figure has not grown meaningfully year-on-year. Inventories, at around ₦130bn, are still dominated by imported raw sugar and refined stock. Gross margins remain around 19–20%, which suggests that local sourcing has not yet reduced FX exposure or input costs in a material way.

If backward integration were already working at scale, we would expect to see ROIC rising, margins expanding, or operating cash flow improving. None of those shifts are visible yet in the numbers. For now, backward integration remains a long-term strategic promise, not a current economic driver.

So when Dangote Sugar is highlighted based on Q3 performance or enterprise value, I think the math needs to be acknowledged. The business is operating with ROIC below WACC, heavy reinvestment needs, and a leveraged balance sheet. Any upside case is therefore macro-dependent, on lower interest rates, FX stability, and time, rather than already embedded in the operating fundamentals.

That distinction is important if we’re being honest about what the numbers are actually saying.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

Well Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

faoogoke:
So many greens again. Where is the money coming from?

Access bank done 57 million units already?

Too much money in the system. Over 4 Trillion Naira bid was chasing just 1 Trillion offer on Wednesday auction ( Treasury bills ) . About 3 Trillion Naira failed . Some of those bars will definitely flow into NGX

Dangote Cement

Entrepreneurrr:
Good evening.

If I may ask why is it that most of the bosses that spent much time in the market do not usually hold DangCem?

I no fit mentioned all the bosses but pls if u come across you can drop your input.

Thanks.

DangCem is a very good company for a conservative investor, it's one of those companies that my children will likely inherit from me cos I don't see myself selling it considering the fact that Africa will remain a construction site for the next 50 years , if not more

Very consistent with dividends payments, with an incredible payout ratio, the company is not stingy.

Another good thing is , it keeps on expanding across Africa, and it has a working formula that wins in all those countries

It's a good company to hold , I got in when it was 160 Naira , and I top up last year at 400+.

The company is likely to pay between 35 - 40 Naira dividends this year cos it paid 30 Naira last year . There is always upward review of dividends, the company no stingy at all

My projection is 1000 in the next 12 months but it is not a buy recommendation cos the price has really rally in the past few days, so I will not advice anyone to jump in right now. But if you are already in the bus , I will advise you to hold. I'm sure the FY 2025 will be a very good one and the dividends won't be bad either

Try do your own personal research on it.

Shalom

Alhaji is in the clear to reinforce his position as African Richest come 2026 - 2027.

My 12 months projection for the three listed Alhaji stocks

Sugar : 120
Salt : 200
Cement : 1000

Fertilizers and Refinery will shoot Alhaji to the moon

Not a buy recommendation

FOLLOW THE MONEY

NAHCO and NASCON now move in waves that are related to each other. The recent correlation measure of both stocks using 2D Normal distribution speaks volumes #QuantitativeFinance

Raider76:
Hope-bies.

Thank you, I will add it to my finance nomenclature.

emmanuelewumi:
Revenue of less than N150 million in 17 months, admin expenses of N1.2 billion. Admin expenses is higher than revenue.

Operating loss of about N1.8 billion

Investors are categories into traders, speculators, long terms investors, gamblers, jijoist and so on

Abeg somebody should help a brother, which name we go call people buying Ellalakes.

Beeron:
Eventhough the stock market wasn't so winning last week, here are Top 10 stocks that really gained. (Link below)

One of the reason stocks didn't perform well last week was because most Investors moved funds into the capital market as the capital market did well last week, especially if you do fixed income and MMF.

The reason is simple, banks wanted to balance their books for the month end so they needed liquidity, people in the capital market provided it even Stanbic mmf that used to be around 15% jumped to 16%.


https://youtube.com/shorts/qdc6a0EoNz8?feature=share

At the bolded , I guess you meant Money Market

ogawisdom:
TIP will change alot of financial stories for those that can hold up to 5years. I hope they allot all the units I asked for in their public offer.

Patient funds will reap bountifully.

Shalom428:
My stock pick for 2026 in no particular order

TIP
NAHCO
NASCON
UBA
WAPCO
DANGSUGAR
TRANSCORP

I will set aside funds for DANGOTE FERTILISER, hopefully it will be listed this year.

Shalom

2026 is going to be a good one for discerning investors. TIP and NAHCO don deliver. Expecting another banger from NASCON

Follow The Money

abuhusna1:
I still feel dangote sugar will hit 500 like bua foods but only diamond hands will benefit. I locked and loaded 1 million units so by then my dividends will pay off my purchase price

What is going on right now is even child's play. The real play will start by Third quarter of 2026 and come second quarter 2027 , the game go don clear

I projected Dangote Sugar and Nascon to hit 300 Naira in the next 5 years, all things being equal, some people said na lie . I respect everyone's opinion as I leave the rest to time

BUA did 9 Trillion last year , Alhaji did just 1 Trillion. Alhaji slept on it last year, I believe he won't sleep on it this year.

Follow The Money

Shalom428:
Sugar is projected to return a 100% ( Presently 60 Naira - projection 120 Naira by the end of 2026 ) and in the next 5 years , it's likely to be the next Presco

Most likely to resume dividends payment in 2027.

700M Dollars fresh investment in Nigeria ( Backward integration ) to achieve sugar self sufficiency , no more importation.

Over 160 Million Dollars DS processing facility in Ghana

The next 5 years looks good for DS, all things being equal

Nascon ROE and Debit to Equity ratio are pretty solid , with the non - geared position and strong balance sheet . The growth trajectory and dividends are looking good. 120 - 150 by the end of 2026 will be a decent price if the company can continue to deliver excellent performance .

No serious salt competition, the only one in trying is Mr. Chef. I don't think BUA produces salt.

Honourable mention for 2026 is NAHCO .

Follow The Money

NASCON DELIVERED

My stock pick for 2026 in no particular order

TIP
NAHCO
NASCON
UBA
WAPCO
DANGSUGAR
TRANSCORP

I will set aside funds for DANGOTE FERTILISER, hopefully it will be listed this year.

Shalom

emmaodet:
Lol

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

Leave statistics....Abi na statistics you wan chop?
Ghana economy getting better?

I chop statistics, I'm a student of numbers, my world revolves around numbers. Whether skewed or not , that is another topic entirely.

Is Ghana not relatively more stable than Nigeria in terms of SECURITY ? Abi Na Ghana, Yankee go bomb last night ?

Is Ghana battling uncertainty about tax and CIT or CGT Abi Wetin you dey call am right now ? Which foreign investors go bring fund into a country with no clear policy. Investors love clarity

Ghana's equity YTD is 132% while that of Nigeria is 55.9% . Is that a lie ?

I stand by what I said , today's Ghana is relatively stable compared to Nigeria and even a blind man can see that . It is not an attack on Nigeria, it is a challenge for us to do better. We should wake up and take our rightful position amongst Nations.

On a lighter note ; Ghana dey go world , NFF dey struggle through backdoor to disqualify Dr Congo. Lol ... Yesterday, the chief of Nigeria supporters club said Nigeria is the only country without supporters club in the ongoing Africa Nations cup cos NFF said no fund ... Is that not laughable

The giant should wake up. We all love our country and we want it to be better . God Bless The Federal Republic of Nigeria

I'm signing out now , it's boxing day morning, make I go open gifts

Shalom

Streetinvestor2:
That means ngx was even a learner this yr.What is the exchange rate and inflation rate like in those countries too

Ghana inflation rate in November is 6.3% . I don't know much about Malawi. It does look like Ghana is doing a lot of things right , and there is a relative stability in Ghana right now compared to Nigeria.

Still a lot of room for growth. Still a lot of money to be made. The real bull will come when we have stability, then investors will start pricing our market as emerging and not as distressed as they are doing right now

The best is yet to come.

ositadima1:
This sounds confident, but a lot of it doesn’t hold up once you strip away the optimism.

Using BUA Foods’ sugar contribution to justify what Dangote Sugar Refinery “must” become is a weak comparison. Market share does not equal profitability. Revenue mix does not equal margins. Cost structure, finance costs, asset efficiency, FX exposure, and ROIC are what drive value, not dominance slogans. Without adjusting for these, the conclusion simply doesn’t follow.

Claims like “₦300+ in five years” for Dangote Sugar or NASCON Allied Industries are not analysis, they’re numbers thrown into the air. What earnings level supports that price? At what multiple? With what free cash flow and balance-sheet strength? None of that is addressed.

The biggest issue here is anchoring to price instead of cash flow. Accumulating at ₦30 and projecting ₦300 without walking through cash generation, capex, debt servicing, and dividend capacity is not investing, it’s hopeful extrapolation.

Bottom line: this is a narrative dressed up as conviction. Until earnings quality, free cash flow, and policy risk are explicitly priced in, this remains a good story, not a serious valuation case.

It is good to balance optimism with pessimism, so I welcome your opinion .

However, I did a lot of research before stating my 300+ , and double digits dividends in 5 years, all things being equal. Let's leave the rest to Mr. TIME.

Streetinvestor2:
Alhaji wanted to use the merger to scam us like I said then.Thr was nothing to justify 1 share of rice being equivalent to 11 shares of sugar. He just wanted to accumulate sugar via back door.
Not minding rice company didn't really exist or have something serious on ground

This is exactly my point , it does look like Alhaji wanted to play a fast one on us with the Food thing. And looking at how saturated the rice business is , I would prefer Sugar and Salt to fly solo , especially with the proposed sharing formula.

KarlTom:
These prices do not make business sense.
2 * 25kg = ₦68k

Hopefully, this time next year, we'll have DANGRICE

With a strong positive mindset, a lot of disappointment can actually lead to blessings. I was very disappointed when DangFood was put on hold because of DangRice not fully functionial but right now I'm beginning to see it as a blessing , especially having accumulating a lot of Nascon at 30 Naira.

Firstly the Rice market is a bit more saturated in Nigeria when compared to Salt and Sugar where Dangote clear has dominance. I believe DangRice will contribute very little to DangFood , Sugar ( when it's fully back ) and salt will carry most of the weight. Right now , I want Sugar and Salt to fly solo, especially with the proposed sugar : salt : rice percentage shares in the earlier published arrangements.

The sugar division of BUAFOODS was the primary revenue driver in the 9M 2025 result . The sugar division contributed 42% to the total revenue of 1.42 trillion in 9M 2025. Meanwhile the Rice division contributed just 6% of total BUAFOODS' revenue in the same period

With Financial cost in control and full implementation of the backward integration, I believe DS will do 300+ in the next 5 years. With controlling market share of over 70% , I believe DS only needs to put it's finances together, it's going to soar. If the sugar division of BUAFoods can deliver so much and DS with the most controlling share in the market, it's a no brainer that , Sugar can soar on it's only without Rice.

Salt is another company that I want to see fly solo. If the present momentum can be sustainable, I believe salt will only do 300+ in the next 5 year with a double digit dividends . Nascon supplies majority of the industries that uses salt in Nigeria , textile , chemical manufacturing, pharmaceutical, water treatment, cosmetics, oil and gas , mining etc

Mr. Chef salt is the only major competition for Dangote Salt and Mr Chef primarily produces cooking salt for domestic use , they don't carter for industries unlike Nascon. Nascon very much like DS controls the largest market share . Worthy of note , BUAFoods no dey produce salt.

Hand don dey pain me ... This is not a buy recommendation

The hustle is real

Streetinvestor2:
Processing plant in Ghana. Have they expanded thr sugar farm to Ghana. I no hear that one oh.I expect the company to do well from second quarter 2026 and after 2027 out perform salt.They whr never mates in the past.Tinubu happened to them

I think they have already started the farming in Kwame - Dando , Bono Region , Ghana. And Yes , I quite agree with you , Sugar and Salt no be mate . When Sugar finally finds it's rightful position, it's going to out perform Salt.

Salt trajectory looks very solid though , very very solid, if they can keep up with the impressive performance they have displayed in 2025 in terms of income statement, cash flow and balance sheet, I see a 50% return on the share price by the end of 2026.

Sugar is projected to return a 100% ( Presently 60 Naira - projection 120 Naira by the end of 2026 ) and in the next 5 years , it's likely to be the next Presco

Most likely to resume dividends payment in 2027.

700M Dollars fresh investment in Nigeria ( Backward integration ) to achieve sugar self sufficiency , no more importation.

Over 160 Million Dollars DS processing facility in Ghana

The next 5 years looks good for DS, all things being equal

Nascon ROE and Debit to Equity ratio are pretty solid , with the non - geared position and strong balance sheet . The growth trajectory and dividends are looking good. 120 - 150 by the end of 2026 will be a decent price if the company can continue to deliver excellent performance .

No serious salt competition, the only one in trying is Mr. Chef. I don't think BUA produces salt.

Honourable mention for 2026 is NAHCO .

Follow The Money

Today's Auction Result - 10th December, 2025

sirrotex:
Please note that withholding tax on interest or investment is final and can not be used to offset any tax liability

Withholding Tax is used as TAX CREDIT against final annual income tax liability.

You got to train your mind to be stronger than your emotions or else you'll lose yourself every time.

Shalom.

mikeapollo:
There so many people on this forum that have multiples of N200m in their portfolio and they are still hustling for more because they dont see it as huge enough. Remember, the more the higher the taste. Reason why Dangote still dey find money

With all modesty , I have multiple of that in my NGX and my money markets but that doesn't mean I will look that amount less. I don't live in Nigeria, I'm well travelled, so I can tell you for a fact that if you take care of your daily needs and you have 137K ( N200M ) saved , you are RICH by the world standard.

No be everybody wan be like Dangote. It's all about mindset . No be everybody wan build by 5 , 6 duplexes. Some people are very much okay with a bungalow, after all , house Na house. No be everyone wan buy Lamborghini , some people are okay with their Toyota. No be everybody wan buy super yacht and private jets.

No need for unnecessary pressure

Valthegreat:
It is this kind of reasoning that made Oyedele (abi wetin una dey call am) classify #50m earning in Nigeria as ultra-rich. What can #50m really buy in the Naira value of today? He forgot that #50m of today was just about #18m pre Tinubu regime.
Even an entrepreneur doing business with such amount as capital is still a budding entrepreneur.

For the record I'm completely against Oyedele's stance on CGT as regards NGX , the market is just opening up , the policy is ill - timed , it will definitely kill the momentum and it has started happening.

The amount in question in 200M not 50M . And I will say it again and again, if you are debt free and you have 200M in good dividend paying companies on NGX , you are RICH by the world standard

Since you guys always dollarize everything... Answer the simple question; What percentage of people in the world have $137K , debt - free

Make a decent case with an answer to the above question.