₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
Well, every kobo counts of course. But 5m units of Geregu is just about N5b. The private placement in FBN is N350b. Hardly a scratch.

KarlTom:
What's cooking in GEREGU

These deals in 99k tranches are not on queue.
Could it be a cross deal that is split to avoid price movement?

Raider76:
Today is the closing day of the FBNH rights issue. Let's see what the bid/offer table will look like.

Agbalowomeri:
Wahala Wahala

Make una sha watch out; the kasala go begin burst from 11th-18th Jan

Raider76:
N18bn off market cross deal on FBNH. I am watching FBNH. I think it may catch GTCO in price.

Agbalowomeri:
2025 will be interesting 😂

Sunrisepebble:
They have huge losses because of the FX crisis. Once the right issue is reflected on the balance sheet and if FX remains stable around this level by FY 25 I believe they will start coming out of the mess
Note: I own the stock for that reason but DYOR

Sunrisepebble:
I believe next year NB will rise again. I bought a lot of units on the exchange when they were doing their rights for just 1kobo premium. A lot of Foreign investors love the stock. Once results are better, it will gbe body

BabsO2:
Who is and why the dumping?
At this rate taking up the rights is unattractive.

BabsO2:
N5 billion already changed hands today and the price has been dragged down to N25. Making taking the rights no more attractive / possible for sell to take.

The offer on the floor is also so large despite the high volume already traded. What’s happening

megawealth01:
Yes it's expected. Ote$ is probably up to something with this right issues stuff

Sunrisepebble:
I’ll share more info when it becomes clearer. Right now, that’s all I’ve heard

Sunrisepebble:
I’ve heard a very healthy premium is in place

Sunrisepebble:
There is a news that just dropped on my table after all. Currently doing DD, it seems its more than profit and valuation matter

designking:
Does it mean if I have 100,000 units of FBNH shares, I will now have 600,000 shares given the ratio of 1 to 6?

designking:
How will this affect FBNH share price?

designking:
FBNH Appoints Adebowale Oyedeji as New GMD

FBN Holdings Plc, has announced the appointment of Adebowale (Wale) Oyedeji as the new Group Managing Director (GMD), effective November 13, 2024. This pivotal appointment is subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and will require ratification by the shareholders during the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

GeeKudi:
It's all a mess. Those who hold the units do not have access to them yet to be able to let go.

Sunrisepebble:
1k is not possible sadly because there are only 4 more tradings day on NASD till NGX listing (trading will halt Oct9 and t+3 inclusive of the weekend to list on the 14th), so assuming another 9% plus performance on each day we can see a listing price of ~800. I honestly expect to see some resistance perhaps next week though. #800 is essentially 16k. Those that got in around 4k have 4xed. Won’t be a bad idea for them to take profit

megawealth01:
Otedola’s Strategic Acquisition: Implications for FBN Holdings and its Shareholders

In a notable move that underscores both confidence and strategic foresight, the business mugal and billionaire Mr Femi Otedola, the Chairman of FBN Holdings, has significantly bolstered his position in the venerable institution with the acquisition of an additional 534 million shares at an impressive price of N30 per share. This substantial transaction elevates his direct shareholding to an unprecedented total of 4.23 billion shares, valued at approximately N124.9 billion. With this acquisition, Otedola now holds a commanding 11.79% stake in the bank, cementing his status as the single largest direct unit holder in the longest-standing bank in Nigeria.

Otedola is a prominent figure in Nigeria’s business landscape, known for his acumen in financial management and strategic investments. His actions as chairman are pivotal not just for FBN Holdings but also for the broader banking sector in Nigeria. Otedola’s significant investment not only demonstrates his strong belief in the bank’s potential for growth but also positions him as a key player in the bank’s strategic direction. Otedola's direct involvement at the helm of one of Nigeria's oldest banks is indicative of his commitment to rejuvenating and steering the institution towards a prosperous future.

In light of this, he's strategy investment in the bank potent a well positioned implications for FBN Holdings. Let considered a few of them:

Otedola’s increased shareholding imbues FBN Holdings with a strong element of stability and governance. Shareholders typically look favourably upon substantial insider ownership as it correlates with a vested interest in the bank’s success. As a pivotal player in the organisation, Otedola has strategic insights and robust governance that align with the aspirations of shareholders seeking sustainable growth.

The acquisition is likely to instil greater confidence among investors and stakeholders regarding the future of FBN Holdings. It signals a clear message: the chairman believes in the bank’s growth trajectory, which encourage other investors to consider entering or increasing their stakes in light of this endorsement. This confidence is crucial, especially in a volatile economic environment where investor sentiment greatly impacts market performance.

As the largest direct shareholder, Otedola’s influence on the strategic decisions of FBN Holdings pave the way for more innovative approaches to tackle emerging market challenges. His leadership may lead to initiatives aimed at diversifying the bank's offerings, potentially enhancing its competitive edge in the financial sector. Moreover, with Otedola’s extensive network and experience across various industries, FBN Holdings could explore new avenues of partnership and investment, broadening its market reach.

Again, with Otedola at the helm, shareholders can anticipate a renewed focus on maximising shareholder value. His approach to acquisitions, strategic investments, and capital allocation are likely to prioritise generating returns for both current and prospective shareholders. This focus on shareholder welfare not only reassures existing investors but also attracts new ones, leading to enhanced liquidity and market capitalisation.

Moreso, the Nigerian banking sector is replete with challenges, including regulatory changes, economic fluctuations, and increased competition from fintech. Otedola’s strategic direction may see FBN Holdings prioritise innovative solutions to these challenges, leveraging technology and enhancing customer experience. Ultimately, this approach could result in improved financial performance, benefiting shareholders in the long run.

While in an environment where volatility is commonplace, the strategic decisions made by Otedola—as the largest single shareholder—help stabilise FBN Holdings. By adopting prudent risk management practices and sustainable business models, where the bank is able to navigate economic uncertainties, ensuring resilience and steady growth, which are essential for shareholder confidence.

As Otedola consolidates his control and embarks on a journey to redefine the bank’s place in Nigeria’s financial landscape, shareholders can look forward to a trajectory marked by confidence, innovation, and enhanced value. Under his leadership, FBN Holdings could emerge as not only a leader in banking but as a beacon of economic stability in Nigeria’s evolving market.

OBA OTUDEKO should focus on how to get back HONEYWELL and drive it back to the days of sub #100

Not a financial advice at all as I am known for heavy risks since 2020 and still counting

Divineability:
Aradel stock split effected. Just checked my holdings on Coronation Registrars website.

bovali:
Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR

sky2891:
Re-capitalizing the FBNQuest Merchant Bank with N50bn may not be the best considering the less than 5% profit made from the merchant bank.
They need to focus on the FirstBank recapitalization whilst making huge profit from the sales of the Merchant Bank.
This is just my opinion.
I also believe it is a good move.

chimex38:
Hmmm.. Good question.
I don't think so, since it may just go into their books as Retained Earnings which is not also allowed by CBN.

maybe use proceeds to increase dividend payout ratio to entice the Public .
Just speculating Oo

Wonder why the sale n timing?

chimex38:
For them to go as far as 100% sale, I believe no other reason than to meet Capitalization requirements for FBN

Change of name soon for the acquired entity..

chimex38:
For them to go as far as 100% sale, I believe no other reason than to meet Capitalization requirements for FBN

Change of name soon for the acquired entity..

currentprice:
not a banking stock bro, it one of the popular stock that got battered during those bear period, though like any other stock, price up more than times 3 since then but doing fine fundamentally and the TA indicting preparation to fly

do ur home work small as ur DD

currentprice:
still waiting sideline with my oga Agba observing......

NSEindex will still shed weight unless it move back above 100k

some stock will follow NSEindex down , some will resist the shedding..

some pple are angry with themselves for missing Oando so they are eyeing Nascon/DS "dangotefood"

Technically, Nascon price already below strong support levels so I expect more downward price but if price could mange move above 40 then this could change story.

DS still trying to move to the strong support at 32/33 levels before deciding further move H1 numbers not attractive

unlike the DS/Nascon waiting for good news to surprise the mkt, one particular stock may even do better... fundamentally ^bedsheet look good and TA indicated ready to fly, while am still in waiting it already added some weight since my bedsheet notice it .... the stock in the same sector will likely follow this stock to fly as indicated by the chat

anyway Q3 around the conner for better clarity

Note; _{^{still sitting on cash, patiently waiting sideline with my oga Agba watching}} as one/two stock trader no day rush