₦airaland Forum

LOL - Lots of Laughter, Laughing out Loud

LMAO - Laughing my *ss off

ROFLMAO - Rolling on (the) floor, laughing my *ss off.



and my favorite - ROFLMFAO - Rolling on the floor, laughing my frigging *ss off.

psst - LFMAO - Lesbians fingering my *ss 'ole.

Seun never marry?

@ika, late but still, happy birthday and hope you had a wonderful day - uncle Ugwumba.

rasulua:
If u go it will end, show us good example.

You nko? Wetin you dey find here?

Have never liked Oprah and wonder why she can't just be ignored.

She's an American and her comments on Nigerians come from her 'little world'.

She influences nothing in Africa, and is of little consequence in our affairs.

This thing never seems to end.

Ugwumba reads and refuses to respond any longer.

@ Fly, at 18 (your profile) don't you think it's a little too early for such games and talk of marriage?

Lots more you can do with your life than worry about such lowlifes.

obong:
this portion of your post speaks to the disunity that existed explains why biafra failed as a war and may have failed as a state. "amusing that the souther minorities did not realize their own people were killed"? do you actually believe they didnt know that. fact is that despite that, they were willing to fight nigeria within a nigerian context as they are doing so now. The likelihood of igbo oppression is real. it happens in every group in the world. But don't misrepresent our position by stating tha it has become a past time to blame igbos for the killings perpetuated by the north. we know the crimes in the north were commited by northerners against easterners. those guys couldnt tell the difference between an igbo and an ibibio

@ obong, read the posts of some of those who say they are from the Niger-Delta here and you will come to this same conclusion (note that I refer to those southern minorities who have made statements here).

During the civil war, south eastern minorities were divided in their support for Nigeria and Biafra - many supported because of a shared sense of the injustice of the pogroms, while many others did not because of a real fear of igbo dominance.

To give the impression that the south eastern minorities were in any way unified to[i] 'fight nigeria within a nigerian context'[/i] is not only untrue, but does a great disservice to those who fought and died on Biafra's side.

ono:
Men, all these ones na upper-cut deadly blows.

@ ono, this childishness is part of the reason why intelligent discourse is difficult in this forum.

@ laudate:

laudate:
Hmmn. . . . . .true, mistakes were made by all the three major ethnic groups, but I fail to see why you claim the Yorubas should have prevented Brigadier Ogundipe from acceding command to a junior Colonel like Gowon. Ogundipe, was a career military man. The Yoruba people did not assist him to get into the army, neither did he get his position on the basis of their votes. The man made a career decision to quit the army, instead of insisting on taking command. How does this decision by one man, qualify a whole ethnic group to be tagged as[i] cowards[/i]?? I don't get it o!

1. If Ironsi's, Ojukwu's and Nzeogwu's (all career military officers, too) mistakes have been attributed as 'Igbo' mistakes, how are we not entitled to state that Ogundipe's (career military officer) cowardice (which we know is not in contest - from notable Yoruba military leaders like OBJ, Scorpion etc. in their memoirs) is the Yoruba's.

I, by no means, attribute cowardice as being in the nature of the Yoruba, but this was used in the context of the events during that period to demonstrate where the leaders and most senior members of these tribes went wrong.

You may note that I indicate that the Yoruba displayed bravery in a different context when the continued pressure on actualizing the 'Abiola' mandate led directly to the OBJ presidency.

The Igbo, have also had their moments of cowardice in the recent history of Nigeria where a number of the Senate presidents buckled under sustained pressure from the presidency.

Courage and cowardice are alter-egos - the absence of one is the other.

2. You state that Ohaneze has only supported resource control since the discovery of oil in Imo and Abia. This you, of course, must be aware is blatantly false, since oil was discovered in these states in the mid-1960's before resource control became an issue.

You may be unaware of the history of oil exploration in Nigeria, for which you may be forgiven, but to parade such inaccuracy to 'score points' does not speak well of your intentions.

3. I do not deny that the Igbo (my tribe) have not always been good neighbours and many may have fancied control over their neighbours, but it has much less to do with oil than a typical human weakness - the majority tribe always wanting to lord it over the minority.

We all suffer from this in Nigeria, and until we learn that the three most populous tribes must allow the rest an equal voice in the affairs of the nation, we cannot go forward.

Nothing annoys me as much as the WAZOBIA sentiments that are expressed in many facets of Nigerian life. If I was from any of the less populous tribes, I would truly be livid.

If you do not find my posts balanced, I will not offer any apologies, because everyone writes from his/her personal leanings and experiences - mine is left of center and, unapologetically, Nigerian first, Igbo next.

MILITIA:
I wonder oooooooooooooooooooooooh! What do we do about it is the question that defies all answers!

(Now you've got me started )

Same way the Jews dealt with their 'image' as shylocks - rebuild our Nation as a proud, corrupt-free country, where there is no tolerance for bribery, scams, official looting, and where probity and accountability are our watchwords and the consequences of non-compliance are meted out without fear or favour.

The rebirth of our nation will go a long way towards redeeming our image.

The 'allow now' culture must stop, where we are permissive of injustice for the sake of a phantom peace.

Reading through this thread, there are so many farcical statements that one does not know where to start - I can only assume that either the posters did not live through the civil war, or the history of the war they read are from 'comic' strips.

1. Anyone who believes the civil war was fought by the then Biafra for oil, needs his/her head examined for delusional problems.

2. Mistakes were made by all 3 'major' (hate this word), Nigerian tribes - the Igbos, through the inaction of Ironsi after the failure of the coup (thereby helping to cement the accusation of an Igbo attempt at taking over Nigeria), the Yorubas for allowing Brigadier Ogundipe to accede command to a junior Colonel like Gowon (cowardice in the face of a National crisis - they made up for this later with the MKO Abiola fight) and most of all the Hausa/Fulani for the pogroms against Southerners. By far, the[b] greater of the crimes is the latter.[/b] All others were political crimes, the pogrom was a crime against humanity.

3. It is amusing that the Southern minority tribes do not realize that the Hausa/ Fulani killed many of their people in these pogroms, as they were all grouped as 'nyamiri' - a corruption of the Igbo term for 'give me water'. But blaming the Igbos for this has of course become a national pastime.

4. Igbo leaders, however, have not done themselves any favours with their neighbours by their attitudes towards them - starting from Zik's removal of Professor Eyo Ita, to mockery of their lifestyles and to attempts to dominate.

5. Some southern minority leaders have come to realize that they have simply substituted the feared igbo hegemony with slavery to the Hausa/Fulani, where the bulk of the oil wealth has been spent.

6. The Igbo have only enjoyed the Niger-Delta wealth, as part of federal allocation policies, and have been in the forefront of the struggle for resource control. Ohaneze has consistently supported the call for much higher derivation percentages - further buttressing the fact that the Igbo never had and still have no quarrel with the oil wealth of the Niger-Delta.

PS - lest I forget, oil was discovered in many parts of of present Imo and Abia states by 1966.

Mandela is an authentic African hero:

1. Courageous: Fought for what he believed in (the equality of all races) and was prepared to die for it.

2. Principled: Refused to denounce his beliefs even if this meant spending his life incarcerated.

3. Humility: Always insisted that there were heroes before him in the struggle - the Walter Sisulu's, Desmond Tutu's etc.

4. Integrity: Promised to serve for one term, delivered on his promises.

5. Honesty: No ill-gotten wealth.

6. Forgiving - Forgave all in equal measure and did not seek revenge.

For these, and many others, the civilized world has recognized him as an authentic world and African hero, in the same class as the Mahatma's, Luther King's etc.

debosky:
Well we can discuss that and other related issues on another thread if you like, but note I said positive steps taken in the right direction, I don't assert he solved the problem neither am I denying the current situation. The supply situation is egregiously bad, and its obvious to see, but Obj took some steps (albeit much belated) to begin the solution to the problems, through breaking up of the existing structure and allowing private capital which is just beginning to flow in, as well as the NIPP intervention project which will yield dividends over the next 6-12 months.

@ debosky, I wait patiently to see the results, provided we don't start blaming Yaradua if this new approach fails. Until then, we should reserve judgement.

davidylan:
He is truly a miracle working God.
This thread really did not warrant an argument, i must agree that some of Ugwumba's evidence is compelling but my point is simple. OBJ failed miserably to make an impact in his 11yrs in office, he corruptly enriched himself and perhaps left office much worse than when he met it.
thanks to him we have the economically castrating land use decree.

But is he the worst leader? With Sheu Shagari, Babangida and Abacha already towering above him in terms of negative achievements we can at least admit that he was a bit better.

No, he is not the worst, but 'a bit better' is not good enough, given all the years and opportunities OBJ had. To whom much is given ---------------.

We must learn to be less accepting of failure in our African leaders, because of the tyranny of the worst ones.

denex:
What I see here are 2 eccentric individuals.

1. Ugwuba who has just got a new ID and rather than climb the ladder to where he should be, is trying to employ 50 CENT, G-UNIT/EEDRIS ABDULKARIM techniques to gain popularity rather than learning the ropes. Please let us abandon this cheap publicity stunt.

2. MILITIA who is out to build up maximum posts in the shortest time possible. Without giving regard that this is slowing down the portal and aimlessly consume cyberspace.

Goodluck to you all.

You must be new on Nairaland, because if you check I have been here since August 2006. Although not one of the oldest members, I humbly will state that I am better known by the more serious posters (GNature, Chxta-where you dey?, Iyke-D {retain my respect, even when I disagree), Odeku, Seun, ZuluN, babyosisi, angel101, toshman, TOH, Donzman, Militia - who you seem to dislike, Sista, WesleyA, Uche2nna, davidylan {my arch-enemy based on his religious sentiments only - but still intelligent}, debosky, mukina2 and a host of others of your generation).

Take it from me, at 44, going on 45, with over 23 years in academia and industry, why should I want to gain cheap popularity from adolescents like you.

I use Nairaland (and a number of other Nigerian and African fora) to educate your ilk on leadership, or the lack of it in Africa, with the hope that your generation will help in moving our great continent forward.

Your loss, if you turn this into a circus.

PS - why waste my breath: see you just registered a few months ago and are attempting to gain 'distance' by posting as much nonesense as you can.

Your Freudian slip is appreciated.

denex:
@Ugwuba

I was making a mockery of all those Nigerians who believed in these PONZI system.

I really hope you were joking too when you declared that 12%, 53% and 35%, 12% made up the bulk.

Quote where I mention these percentages or shame on you. Like I said earlier, percentages are yours.

You see, I understood your sarcasm in the PONZIN thing, but used this to show you how you could very easily be misrepresented (knew you would 'catch the bait'), as you tried to misrepresent the numbers and the purpose they served.

debosky:
OK Prof Ugwumba, you win, Obj is part of the problem, the impact of his borrowings is what i was focusing on, not the 'main' issue according to you

He has become richer due to his stay in government?, YES

The crux of my exchanges with you (granted a little tangential to the topic as a whole) dwelt mainly on the subject of linking loans+GDP drop = Obj's bad fiscal performance, an assertion I still disagree with. it may well be true that he enriched himself and other generals, for the upteenth time, I have made no attempts to exonerate him, just to test the validity of some of the statements you used to back up an otherwise accurate conclusion.

If you go through my posts, I only turn up as an 'apologist' in your terminology when I applaud what I see as certain positive steps he took in his time at the helm, particularly in areas such as power generation. You may prefer a blanket condemnation of everything he (and others) ever touched, that is your perogative, I see nothing new to be garnered from that, i would rather check to see if specific actions can be looked at for their own merits or demerits.

In the first part, I started celebrating your conclusion, to mean that you now appear to have understood me.

Then I saw your quote on power generation. If OBJ's performance IN 8-YEARS (a total of 11-years at the helm) of leadership is the current power situation in Nigeria, then you see why I continue to insist people like you are OBJ apologists.

To ensure you do not think I conclude OBJ has done no good, below is my personal opinion on the top 7 issues.

CORRUPTION - 30% (failures include Peter Odili, Atiku, Stella, OGD etc. and OBJ himself)
TELECOMS - 50% (this was however a moving train that could not be stopped as most of our WA countries were well ahead of us).
POWER - 10% (considering all the noise and money spent, we are still well behind SA in generation and Ghana in distribution and permanence).
CRONYISM - 100% (the Transcorp, Dangote, oil-block licences etc. fiascos)
DEBT REPAYMENT - 80% (the remaining 20% is his inability to sustain reforms, my original argument that he was part of the problem).
POVERTY ALLEVIATION - 5% (70% of Nigerians live under $1/ day and we have severally been listed among the poorest countries in the world).
INFRASTRUCTURE (others, except power) - 10% (with the expenditure on roads, I understand that the South-Eastern, South-south link roads are still a disaster, water is a big joke, our airports are 'death lanes' - {and please no jokes about this - I lost my godson in the Sosoliso crash} etc.).

Not an admirable scorecard, and yet he leaves office a much wealthier man.

denex:
I refuse to debate with someone who claims that of 12%, 53% and 35%, the 12% is the bulk.

The Goddess I serve will not permit me engage in a debate with any such technocrat.

Peace be unto you all.

It would also demean me to 'debate' with you (since you have so far contributed nothing sensible here).

Below is a post from you, where you argue macro-economic theory with an intelligence only reserved for the 'best and brightest'. Your attempt at sarcasm is rather amusing.

[/quote]@MILITIA

Yes ma. You are right. You see there is this Club Freedom investment, some kind of Ponzi Program.

You invest $220 and get $8,000 + $6,000 in just a couple of months. That's an investment multiplied by 70 within a year.

So it is certain that Yar'Adua investing N12 million in 2006 will yield N850 million by early 2007.
Nigerians invest in these financial deals all the time and smile to the bank. So why not Yar'Adua?

It is just unfortunate that a lot of his assets were tied down in bonds and shares. If he had "wisely" invested the whole N150 million in Club Freedom or Egold over the years, the man would have made N10 billion each year. So today Yar'Adua would have been declaring N80 billion CASH today.

I'm even hoping Yar'Adua can invest Nigeria's $45 billion foreign reserves in FOREX TRADING, E-GOLD and CLUB FREEDOM so that by the end of the year, Nigeria can declare $3 trillion foreign reserves.

I wonder why the CBN hasn't thought of this. That stupid Soludo.

I took some pains to read previous comments from you, and apart from an arrogance, clearly rooted in ignorance, you contribute little else.
My gain if you hide behind this. PS - percentages are yours.

I wish you and your Goddess well.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=65526.msg1292817#msg1292817 date=1184505677]@Ugwumba

You may be an economic guru and you are right, I would probably flunk out of your economic class, professor.

However, I stand corrected that all the stats you have thrown about have little or nothing to do with this topic.
I am afraid but in your haste to dazzle non-economic minds like us, you flunked a simple a test yourself. Except
I am delusional, I still don't see how OBJ being the first to take a loan on behalf of the country translates to his
being worth N20,000 in 1998 and N180billion now - that is still what the topic states, not whether was he a saint
or not or whose loans affected the country the worse.

Really, there is no sainthood in Nigerian leadership as they are complicit one way or another, some more so than
others. That is not nit-picking, we are simply saying stop the sensational journalism that is all too common with
Sun and do some fact checking for your readers.

Free Tip
======
At the very bottom, one can do a google search of Nairaland - I challenge anyone to google Iyke-D and show me
were I gave Obasanjo a clean bill of health. The closest you will get is my claim that he is still the better of all the
morons we have had for leaders. If you prove me otherwise, I will eat my words and re-state my position.

My point is that there is no 'better' in a bunch of crooks and OBJ is 'in with the crowd'.

As you point out, the main issue is really whether OBJ is substantially wealthier now than in 1999.

Because of your fixation on numbers, for your own purpose, you fail to realize that the gist of my argument is this:

1. Our leaders impoverish us and enrich themselves, and the degree to which they have done this is irrelevant, and even if you choose to make this relevant, OBJ will still be in the list of corrupt and corrupting leaders.

2. OBJ is intricately part of 1. above and I have used the information provided to point this out.

3. Knowing some of you, from your past posts, it was clear to me that if I avoided producing some figures and historical facts to buttress this, you would have claimed they were no facts to establish OBJ's culpability in the debt mess we found ourselves in.
So, there has been no attempt to, as you so quaintly put it, 'dazzle you'.

4. The way you have chosen to 'debunk' the information, shows that, irrespective of what is presented to you, your minds are made up, and you only ask for facts in the hope there are none.

5. In your defense, I have not read you exonerating OBJ, but I have read you cleverly defending him by claiming he is 'better' than the others.

dayokanu:
Anyone that calls IBB and SHagari a thief despite not having the needed evidence and tries to exonerate OBJ stating lack of evidence is a two mouthed hypocrite

and, they are many of them out there.

Donzman:
@Ugwumba

They do know the main point being raised in the thread but they choose to nitpick on every number and missing zero just to prove their point that OBJ is not bad. These same set of people cannot prove that Shagari or IBB did any worse.The music playing now is that OBJ is bad but not as bad as Shagari and IBB so we should take it easy on him or something, we all love Nigeria, nonsense!

If you love accurate statistics so much, why not produce the numbers to prove your point that IBB and Shagari are the worse than OBJ?

Donzman, they are 'serial debunkers(?)'. I have thrown up this challenge and possibly the only one of the group who might (a remote possibility) take it up is GNature.

Let him, instead of disagreeing, come up with his own breakdown of lending instruments and rates from 1977 - 2004 and I can then play the 'debunk with no supporting information' role.

OBJ apologists, all of them (including those who say they are not, but just insist he did not steal as much as Abacha and IBB).

Where una dey, I don wake. 

GNature:
I would need to see proof that the $2billion loan taken by obj was indeed at 8%. I would like to know the timeframe the loan was supposed to be paid back, the schedule of payments, and the months (or timeframe) in which payments were not made. This is the only way I can come to terms with your claim regarding this loan. Unfortunately, you are unable to provide any verifiable source of your claim.

Like Iyke-D said, you are misinterpreting these figures for the sole purpose of winning your argument. When you list the debts incurred by Shagari & IBB, you always list their principal loan amounts, $9 b and $ 6b, however, when you mention OBJ's, you add his interest, ie, $2 billion (original loan) + $13.98 billion (interest) = $15.98 billion. Again, were the loans incurred by Shagari & IBB interest free loans ? Why are you just mentioning the principal borrowed and excluding their interest ? I think I know why. If you do, then your claim that the chunk of the $35 debt were incurred by OBJ would crumble and you don't want that, which is understandable 

It is very difficult for me to accept your claim that the $2 billion borrowed in 1978 had ballooned to $15.98 billion by 2004. You have admitted yourself that this loan was serviced after he left office, so tying $15.98 billion to the $2 billion loan is a bit disturbing.

And for the record Ugwumba, I have good reasons not to rely on the way you interprete economic data. Recall you mentioned earlier that the "first major slump" in GDP growth in Nigeria took place while OBJ was in office, but I brought out the world bank figures to dispute your claim. You also mentioned that the trend in declining GDP growth rate in Nigeria started from Obasanjo's administration. Again, I proved you wrong because Nigeria witnessed growth in GDP two years after the slump in 1978. The world bank figures clearly showed that the declining trend in GDP growth started and was sustained throughout Shagari's administration. Everytime I had access to the data you quote, I have been able to discredit the way you were interpreting it.

Tell me about it 

You have hit it on the nail !  I am not absolving obj at all; but the bulk of the debt burden we got ourselves into lies on the govts of Shagari & Babangida. Period.

You may continue priding yourself on debunking something, but if you were my student you (and Iyke-D) would fail woefully in how you miss the essence of the stats.

1. You hang on 8% (which still remains my educated estimate from the references I gave you), and $15.98 billion which I am rather tired of telling you was used to address someones rather stupid question of how $2 billion over 27-years could result in a 'substantial portion of a $35 billion' debt. I TIRE TO CONTINUE MAKING THIS POINT.

If you have done any research, please let me know what international capital market rates for high risk loans to developing countries was in 1977. QUOTE YOUR OWN NUMBERS.

2. The World bank GDP growth rates show that starting from the oil boom years, THE FIRST MAJOR SLUMP IN OUR GDP GROWTH OCCURRED IN 1978 DURING OBJ's watch. If you wish to add the 1970 - 1975 data, when we were recovering from a civil war and the 3Rs dominated our economic performance, then feel free to do so.

3. As you will discover, when you properly research this material, the debts by Shagari and IBB were also a substantial part of the overall $35 billion though overall interest rates were lower (because of a better mix of borrowing instruments and institutions). I hesitate to quote a % seeing how you make use of this. SO IF SHAGARI & IBB ARE CULPABLE, HOW, AGAIN, DOES THIS EXONERATE OBJ, WHO HISTORY RECORDS AS THE FIRST LEADER TO TAKE US DOWN THIS PATH OF JUMBO, FISCALLY IRRESPONSIBLE LOANS. Why did his predecessor governments not do this?

4. Finally, on debosky's infrastructural development comments, it is noteworthy that while Gowon and OBJ can point to a better value/spend ratio than SHAGARI and IBB, Gowon left office a relatively poor man while OBJ CREATED THE ERA OF MEGA-RICH MILITARY OFFICERS (DANJUMA, SHEHU YARADUA & HIMSELF).

Isn't this, afterall, the main gist of this thread (again please stop hanging unto 20,000 or 180 billion, 8%, 15.98billion etc.) viz - OBJ HAS ALWAYS LEFT OFFICE FAR RICHER THAN HE ENTERED, ALLOWED HIS COHORTS TO STEAL, AND WANTS TO PORTRAY HIMSELF AS OUR MESSIAH.

UNLIKE YOU, I CONSIDER OBJ AS PART OF THIS PROBLEM (to what measure is arguable - but first culprit and major contributor come to mind).

EXONERATE HIM? WHY SHOULD WE.

Donzman:
@Ugwumba

Why waste your time with people who are dishonest?. . .You can never get anything honest from these guys (Debosky, Iyke-D and Denex). These same guys asking for proof as to how much OBJ has stolen won't hesitate to call IBB a thief.

Donzman, I know them, know how they work, know where their sentiments lie, and never hesitate to take them on.

Their positions, as you point out, are usually hypocritical, lack any supporting data - my surprise is GNature (who I enjoy reading), who while not defending OBJ, in his attempt to condemn Shagari and IBB totally misses the point.

I do not, and, will not, because OBJ is considered a lesser crook, absolve him from this mess, as he was afterall the first post-civil war Head of State (a point most of them miss) to become stupendously wealthy.

I dey go sleep. When dem wake and have vented their anger at me, I will start where I paused.

GNature:
Here, you are stating that payments were being made on the loans.

Now, you are stating otherwise:-

So, which version of your story are we to believe ? The fact that payments were made to service the debt or the fact that payments were not made to service the debt ?

Also, you have not explained how Shagari, Buhari and IBB were able to obtain loans without servicing the loan obtained by obj in 1977/1978.

My bros, the contradiction is in your mind alone.

That a debt portfolio including OBJ and none-OBJ loans were being serviced at ALL times without servicing much of the OBJ loans is NOT A CONTRADICTION. Let me know if it is clearer.

Ehmmmm, take some time to see if you can get the reference material (you asked for), read, digest, analize and then we can proceed with this discourse.

On how Shagari et al could continue borrowing without paying back much from existing loans - this is a fact, because at every point we borrowed we were still in debt, otherwise our debt portfolio could not have grown so large (given that the sums actually borrowed by Shagari & IBB amounted to about $15 billion).

@ GNature, I am not an 'internet' researcher, and can give references and not 'links'.

The references will act as a guide, and I cannot be certain you can get access to them, as the key ones are not in the public domain, but if you do, you will need to do some further analysis (please do not start adding percentages as you have done with numbers previously).

GNature:
Could you provide me with a link that validates your claim that:-

1. Obj borrowed $2 billion "at 8%"

2. Neither Shagari, Buhari or IBB serviced this debt and the interest kept being capitalized ?

I have looked all over and can't find anything to back your claim.

The 8% is not a figure you will see in any document, and was used in answer to a question on how $2 billion in 1977 could amount to a substantial portion of $35 billion in 2004. The references below indicate the interest rates were high and the conditions attracted severe penalties for defaulting (which we did).

Shagari was busy borrowing, servicing as little as he could, Buhari serviced what he could, but was burdened by Shagari's debts, IBB continued borrowing. The bulk of the pre-1980 loans were mostly left unserviced.

1. The Federal Government's internal documents on the Settlement of the Paris Club debts, The Federal ministry of Finance,  DMO  & Accountant-General of Nigeria, 2002.

2.  DMO: Nigeria And The Paris Club (2004).

3. External Debt And Management Policy, NIGERIA ECONOMY, STRUCTURE,
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT, Obadan I. Mike (2002).

4. Economic Reforms and Nigeria's Political Crisis, (Spectrum Books Limited, Ibadan) Umoren Rose (2001).

@ debosky, kind of suspected from how you reply (you appear to ignore the context in which a statement is made) that you were going to hang on my use of the word coincidence - so in my last reply I said the following:

Ugwumba:
Use the figures with some insight, as I have chosen to do, and note mine is a 'coincident-correlated' and not 'confirmatory-definitive' link.

When two variables (in this case GDP growth and debt) show a significant correlation, or anti-correlation, then the term 'coincident' is used to indicate that, while there may be other factors, the correlation may be assumed to exist.

If one looks at our debt portfolio and GDP growth, each time we borrowed heavily (e.g. 1977-78, 1980-81, 1982-83), there was a sudden drastic drop in GDP growth.

Finally, if I must ask before continuing this, do you defend OBJ on an 'Omowa' basis, because if you do, then we clearly  argue from different perspectives.

While there are a number of very admirable Yoruba-born leaders, OBJ is , unfortunately, part and parcel of the heritage of corruption in Nigeria, as are Orji Kalu, Chimaraoke Nnamani and all my thieving Ibo leaders. I make no excuses for them and condemn them all in equal measure.

To think or argue otherwise does a great disservice to your intellect and the contributions of your irrepressible heroes - the Gani's, Soyinka's and a host of others.

GNature:
Let me state for the record that I do not believe OBj is a saint, but at the same time, we cannot come here and make blanket assertions without backing them up.

First, Ugwumba said the bulk of the $35 billion debt were incurred by the first obasanjo administration. He said obasanjo borrowed $2 billion while Shagari and IBB borrowed $9 billion and $6 billion respectively, yet obj is responsible for the bulk of the debt.

I again reassert that, due to the much higher interest rates OBJ borrowed at, the lack of any servicing of these debts by Shagari, the longer intervening period between him and IBB, a bulk of the $35 billion debt burden (you can split hairs again on my choice of the word bulk - 20% by one individual loan is bulk if it is the single largest component).

The debt portfolio from 1960 indicates that by 2005 the lower interest bilateral/ multilateral (World bank, IMF) loans were a minor percentage compared to the loans from  international capital markets (Paris, London clubs). All OBJ's loans fall in the later category, were largely unpaid by 2004 and with interest and penalties made up a substantial portion of the money owed to international capital markets.

You can argue, until you get hoarse, on why Shagari and subsequent governments did not pay back the loans, but instead went on a spending spree of their own, but OBJ started the trend of jumbo loans at competitive market interest rates, against the colonial and pre-OBJ bilateral (and low interest) loans.

One reason adduced for the shift was that while the World bank and IMF had stringent conditions and performance requirements on their loans, the international capital markets did not, allowing corrupt African leaders to fritter away these loans on clearly non-developmental projects.

GNature:
Second, he stated that the first major slump in Nigeria's GDP growth was during obasanjo's military rule. This is untrue as I have given the world bank figures to dispute this claim.

Uptil 1975, we were recovering from a civil war, oil prices were below $20/ barrel and the boom years did not start till 1976. So I think I can be permitted if I have excluded these years, knowingly, in my analysis, making the first year of my analysis 1976 - the start of our oil boom.
Use the figures with some insight, as I have chosen to do, and note mine is a 'coincident-correlated' and not 'confirmatory-definitive' link.

GNature:
We should stop blaming Obasanjo for all of Nigeria's problems.

Oh, I don't blame him for all our problems, NEITHER DO I ABSOLVE HIM OF COMPLICITY.

debosky:
so simply taking a loan that was according to you 'ill-advised and fiscally irresponsible' (still don't see the evidence of this assertion) resulted in the GDP slump? it must have been really instantaneous in its effect. please explain it to us - the loan automatically made Nigerians less productive in the year it was obtained leading to poor GDP growth right? the decline had to be as a result of reduced oil revenues, or other issues such as a poor agricultural season, definitely not taking a loan. it is a wild stretch of conjecture to link a loan (which results in increased economic activity, at least at the onset) to an instant decrease in GDP, if you said it caused a decrease years down the line due to the need for repayment, that would have even been a more credible argument. but your economics on the cause and effect relationship between Obj's loan and the GDP drop (only in 78) is very flawed and simplistic to say the least

Will reply when I see the sense in this, but there are very many articles on the impact (sometimes instantaneous) of a debt burden on GDP growth. Understand that I only refer to the coincidence of this slump with an increasing debt profile.

GNature:
You are skewing the figures. Yes, the GDP growth rate was -5.8% in 1978, but obj was in power for 4 years (1976-1979) and according the world bank, the GDP growth rate for these years were as follows:-

1976 -  9%
1977-   6%
1978-   -5.8%
1979-   6.8%

The average growth rate during his tenure was 4% per annum. You would also note that there was a slight decrease in oil revenue in the year 1978.

Now, let's look at Shagari's term (GDP growth)

1980 -   4.2%
1981-     -13.1%
1982-    -0.2%
1983     -5.3%
1984     -4.8%

So, to state that Nigeria started its lump in GDP growth in 1977/1978, is completely inaccurate.

@ GNature, I leave out some of these bits of info to draw people like you in.

1. Firstly, before OBJ started us on the 'bad loan' ride, 1976 -1977 were growth years. My exact point was that it was not a mere coincidence that the[b] first major slump in GDP growth[/b] came in the year ending an ill-advised and fiscally irresponsible loan.
Don't your figures, which I also have, support my statement of the start of the slump?


2. Secondly, I am glad you use 'slight' for the oil revenue change in 1978 (would have expressed my disappointment otherwise). So the -5.8% decline in GDP was not as a result of oil revenues.

3. In contrast, The 1979 GDP growth was more a reflection of the change in oil prices which, as I mentioned somewhere, were on the increase from about $33 to $68 (over 100%, a rather substantial change that masked the inefficiences, profligacy and graft in the outgoing OBJ regime).

4. Okay, so Shagari did worse in oil boom years, PRAY TELL ME HOW THIS EXONERATES OBJ?

I DEY WAIT OH!!!

@MILITIA, abeg my sister hang around.

GNature:
Your numbers are not adding up.

Here you claim that obj's 1977 $2 billion loan added up to $15.98 billion by 2004


While here you assert that Shagari took out $9 billion and IBB $6 billion


Thus, 15.98 + 9 + 6 = $30.98 billion

If obj's loans rose from 2 billion to 15.98 billion in 2004 (according to you), what about the loans taken out by Shagari and IBB ? They were definately not interest free loans.

If you add the interest of Shagari and IBB's loans, we would be way over the $35 billion debt figure.  This is the reason why I asked you for a link of your source of information, because your numbers are not adding up.

@ GNature, the way you have used these numbers is laughable, to say the least.

Yes, if the interest for IBB & Shagari's loans were added, we would be well above $35 billion - but we were at ALL times servicing some portion of the debts using different instruments.

By 1988 (most borrowing done by then), our debt profile stood at $29.282 billion - made up of new of loans,  unpaid interest and unpaid principal from existing loans.

Your math misses the repayments (should be subtracted).