₦airaland Forum

Nothing wey common man no go hear.

ABUJA, Nigeria (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria’s progress in curbing militant attacks hasn’t much boosted its oil output. While that’s bad news for a country mired in its worst economic slump in 25 years, it’s making life easier for fellow OPEC members.

Africa’s largest economy was pumping about 1.5 MMbpd late last month, 30% below what it was hoping to achieve and only a modest recovery from an almost 30-year low of 1.4 million in August. While peace efforts have curbed the frequency of attacks in the oil-rich Niger River delta, the Forcados export terminal, the country’s third largest, remains closed and shipments are down at many others.

If these disruptions persist they could have an unintended consequence: helping the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boost oil prices.

“Bringing the Forcados loading terminal back into action is key for Nigeria’s exports,” said Charles Swabey, an oil and gas analyst at BMI Research, in an email. If the government follows through on the peace process, then Nigeria could become “a drag" on OPEC’s push to rebalance the market, he said, “and will likely slow the process down.”

When OPEC and 11 other producers forged an accord in December to reduce their production to eliminate a global oversupply, conflict-prone Nigeria and Libya were exempt. So a significant production increase from either nation would make it harder for the group to fulfill its pledge to reduce output by almost 4%.

Amid signs that U.S. output is recovering and prices stalled in the mid $50s, the group can ill afford to have its own members diluting its historic deal. Global benchmark Brent was trading $54.74/bbl, down 0.6%, as of 11 a.m. London time on Wednesday.

Peace dividend[b][/b]

Since the start of negotiations in November with militants -- most of whom call themselves the Niger Delta Avengers -- Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Emmanuel Kachikwu has repeatedly said there would be a peace dividend in terms of improved oil-production. In November, the minister was targeting output of 2.2 MMbbl by the end of 2016.

In reality, many of the country’s largest export terminals are experiencing disruptions. Kachikwu predicted that Forcados, which shut down in February, would restart in June, then September, then October. There’s currently ”no update” on when the facility can resume operations, said Precious Okolobo, a Lagos-based spokesman for operator Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Qua Iboe, the nation’s largest crude stream, is still operating at reduced capacity as permanent repairs are completed to damage on its pipeline inflicted in July, Exxon Mobil Corp. said Jan. 31.

About 500,000 bpd of production is currently offline because of militancy, Manji Cheto, senior V.P. for West Africa at New York-based Teneo Intelligence, said in an email. While the nation’s output recovered to an average of 1.64 MMbbl last month from 1.5 million in December, that’s still well below the 2015 average of 1.99 MMbpd, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Amnesty program

Even before the resurgence of militant activity, Nigeria was struggling as a result of low oil prices. For President Muhammadu Buhari, "a peace deal is critical to his government’s ability to steer the economy out of recession and improve his political capital ahead of the 2019 elections," said Amaka Anku, an analyst at Eurasia Group.

His administration’s 2017 budget proposed restoring financing for the Presidential Amnesty Program, which pays former militants an allowance, to its pre-2016 level of about $215 million from $66 million budgeted last year, she said. This allowance, started by President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2009 and expanded by President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, was credited with maintaining a relative peace in the delta before it was cut.

Oando Plc, a Nigerian energy company that lost 20 percent of its production due to attacks last year, is optimistic about Buhari’s measures. “The government is already engaging the Niger delta inhabitants towards creating an enabling environment for us to drive our production back up,” Group CEO Wale Tinubu said in an interview. “I know for a fact we’re going to get an improvement.”

The Niger Delta Avengers, which claimed most of the attacks last year, threatened last month to widen its campaign after becoming frustrated with government talks.

No contact

“I am not sure we’re on that path where one can confidently say there’s clear indication of dialogue,” said Ledum Mitee, a lawyer and minority-rights activist directly involved in the peace talks. After community leaders met the president in November, there’s been no further contact, he said by phone from Port Harcourt.

“In spite of this, we have been meeting and trying to appeal to the grassroots that the peace should be maintained,” but the situation could worsen if the militants think they’re not being taken seriously, he said.

Laolu Akande, a spokesman for V.P. Osinbajo, who is leading the peace initiative, didn’t respond to calls and an email seeking comment.

Oil output for the year will likely average 1.7 MMbpd, aided by new offshore fields coming online in the second half of 2017, according to Eurasia Group’s Anku. She expects a short-lived deal with militants and a return of sustained attacks in 2018.

"I see the federal government engaging the region more constructively," Dolapo Oni, Lagos-based head of Ecobank Energy Research, said by email. A recent visit by the Nigerian V.P. Yemi Osinbajo to delta is a start "however, attacks will likely continue until we strike the right tone."

http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/2/8/nigerias-struggle-to-boost-oil-output-a-good-sign-for-opec

I have a Lexus gx470, one of the rear suspension balloon was damaged when mechanic jacked up the car to change the rear break pad. Would like to have details of the repairs if there is anyone in this forum who has had a rear balloon failure.

inventor432:
There is more to it

Not heard from you.

I want to divert into Printing and need to get the prices for the equipments as well as the best cost effective printing method that is easy to start.

Who can give me a quote for theese equipments?

Thank you.

Not working, after 2 days my 20000mb social disappeared after checking with *140#

This is a ruse, tried it and just dashed stupid mtn 1k for nothing. Fake, don't try it!

Na the witch wey cry by night cause am or Exxon dey give a false excuse?

This is fantastic.

Very very fantastic country.

It is just a silly hoax!

Let's try true fedralism.

jiobestfarms:
Viccasi Were Is Your Old Farm Located At And Is It Up For Rent??

No, not for rent.

Well, why did they not think of this before? And should be applied to other sectors to reflect a kind of true fedralism.

Fantastically on course.

fulanmafia:
The duty of the EFCC (established by law) is to investigate financial crime, and it is the duty of the President to protect the interests and commonwealth of Nigerians (as enshrined in the constitution)] [color=#990000][/color]which he does by exercising political will to support the EFCC and other agencies in the pursuit of their duties.

And is he?

Good motive, but intending to setup one, Will be coming here to seek advice once I have bottleneck. Was formally into Poultry but had to shut it down due to low profit and astronomical constant increase in feeds.

This does not look right, why wait till the last minute before the trip was cancelled when the deed happened about 48hrs ago. That is how a former president was lieing before kicking the bucket

fiizznation:
And like I always say, the militants are only destroying bayelsa/delta states thinking they are destroying katsina state. The oil spillage and gas flaring happens in only bayelsa state not in katsina state. Economic activities are affected only in bayelsa state and not in katsina state. You that is cheering them up is affected negatively and not buhari that is currently in asorock, probably eating now. So where is the sense in destroying your own lands thinking you are destroying another man's land? Where is the sense?

The ND was already 3% polluted before now, millitants are only trying to make it 5%.

Doyin2:
Well let me agree with a not too good start.But hey, in a marathon race,which is more important,the finish or the start?

Unless you do not accept that fixing Nigeria is not a 100 meters dash!


So do not be surprised if you see me carry placard ''APC must go'' in few years time!!!!

Think it is getting close for your last comment

darqly:
Hate to ruin your happy party but it's possible you don't live in ND thats why you assume the ND militants don't kill innocent people.

1. As a result of their actions, there will be no power. This affects health institutions who attend to innocent people. Most will die.
2. The oil spills and eventual environmental degradation affects the land, water and even air in the local communities, where innocents live.
3. The natural habitat and ecosystem of flora and fauna in the ND is affected. Innocents live off the land. Fish can't swim in crude.
4. In my area, there hasn't been power for about a week. I buy fuel at cut throat prices to run a generator for my home. Some innocents cannot earn a living without this electricity, and they cannot afford fuel.

In essence, this is a war that has far more drawbacks than advantages. I don't see ANY wisdom in ruining your land and impoverishing the innocent people you claim to be "emancipating". But then, NONE of us lives there na, so who gives a damn?

Did u know that there is a solution to everything? There are Mirads of international investment in the ND which cannot be relocated. Worst case scenario is a deal will be struck with the international companies to clean up the area in respect of free crude for a number of years. Same free crude Nigeria is enjoying.

Metallurgist:
if history tells us anything is that the world does not suffer a fool. my ijaw brothers why not ask yourselves why do the ipob youths that wholeheartedly supported you don't bomb oil instillations in IMO or anambra states but a glad to celebrate anything that harm you and Nigeria. and to the terrorist iPods still suffering from your 2015 Hangover the bulk of Nigerian oil production is offshore as such easier and better protected

U are right.. But remember the militants started to shoot helicopters going offshore during yaradua period.

Abeg, make Dem take softly softly o

fiizznation:
Buhari will not negotiate with them rather will any amnesty be granted to them. When the military start with these ragtag militants, I don't want to hear people screaming genocide. Funny how someone will be destroying his land thinking he is dealing with the President. Is this not foolishness at the highest order.

They are blowing up bayelsa/Delta while the president's hometown is daura{katsina}. I laugh

Keep laughing o. Someone already put a parable that when rat invade your clay pot, be careful how u eliminate it. The failure of the last government was attributed to Jonathan, the failure of the correct handling of this crises will be attributed to Buhari alone.

johnmartus:
they have not start torture them

Torture no work o.

Omotaday:
You people should keep saying thrash.. They should keep bombing, we will both suffer it. And you people should not cry when the military start their real stuff with these animals. Lets keep watching.

People have put parables about rat that got into a clay pot and needs to be eliminated. I will say this is a dicey situation because once u have the Niger delta infiltrated with the military, the oil companies will term it as hostile and unsafe, plus the millitants might start shooting helicopters going offshore. This is bad.

greggng:
You re naive if you think is all about buhari. It is you and I the common man that will go to bed hungry not buhari. You had better pray things get better for nigeria otherwise you will die of kwashiokor

Seriously? If the country flourish, praises goes to Buhari. But if the country fails... Even the Buhari generation will change their names plus the attendant way other world powers will view his handling of the situation. Good or bad, Buhari is responsible constitutionally.

joborskill:
Buhari must not negotiate with those rif rafs. Let them blow up their yeye oil. thank God we have oil in lagos now

Good Lord, means it will be used to develop the north east...

I support the electricity tarrif to be returned to normal but the method used for the fuel subsidy is not as straight forward.looks like fg is trying to kill 2 birds with one stone thru the back door, fuel increase and naira devaluation

The op tried, but no thanks.

NLC strike go on

?? What is this?