Greetings to you all
Please is Dangflour a good buy now ?or should I still hold on

holm:

FBNH is a holding company, as such, it's difficult to tell how result will swing. But I tend to be more certain on a bulish 2017 quarterly results.

FCMB, STANBICIBTC etc are equally holding companies. Why are their results already out

Mpeace:
FCMB, STANBICIBTC etc are equally holding companies. Why are their results already out

I answered to this= What to expect from FY16 from FBNH, not the timing of the result. Trust me, I can't wait to analyse that result. I need all results from Total, Dangflour and FBNH like yesterday.

olayinmol:
Greetings to you all
Please is Dangflour a good buy now ?or should I still hold on

...I don't know if you belief in Technical Analysis. If you do, then I will say it is not yet time, maybe in a couple of days time as:

-Daily is still trying to find support
-The bears are more dominant than bulls
-The stock is pulling back after a decent rally
-Weekly is bullish (which is good for the stock)
-Keep a watch on it when price drop to 3.96 - 4.0

Cheers...

BullBearMkt:

...I don't know if you belief in Technical Analysis. If you do, then I will say it is not yet time, maybe in a couple of days time as:

-Daily is still trying to find support
-The bears are more dominant than bulls
-The stock is pulling back after a decent rally
-Weekly is bullish (which is good for the stock)
-Keep a watch on it when price drop to 3.96 - 4.0

Cheers...

Bros, you no dey sleep...

"Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00"

Since @DeRuggedProf threw out this interesting challenge, I've checked and checked the particular stock over and over again. Knowing that statistically, using 1 dataset out of pool of stocks in NSE for this kind of findings is insufficient, I looked over at 2 other datasets with almost similar behavioural pattern. 3 datasets to me could still give room for large errors...

My findings will surprise everyone & probably many of you would want to "eat me raw" when you see me. I sincerely welcome +ve criticism and contributions to the laudable discussion brought up by @DeRuggedProf.

Summary
-Stocks that did not perform well in the last 1 year or more (for whatever reasons)
-Stocks with price depreciation of 60% and above
-Before the monumental rise, there have been lot of accumulation going
-Readily, what comes to my mind are FO and OANDO, the much rejected stocks fundamentally!

Below is the Dangote Flour Daily Chart for the period under review. I can throw out more if you wish, but for now, let the discussion begins...

DeRuggedProf:
JUST THINKING: Every year a stock does magic, that if one identified early, would have greatly profited him. Can we suggest and analyse to benefit us here? At times, some people may have hidden/insider knowledge or just amazingly interesting insights

Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00.
I almost took a cutlass to question the elders in my village....
That journey was done through level grounds, hills and valleys. It was like magic. At times the fundamentals, at other times the Technicals threw us all overboard on that journey, our life jacket was our STOP LOSS and POSITION SIZES....

Which stock do we think will do this in 2017 or are all stocks presently overvalued?

Lets kick start an interesting discussion...

Coolcash1:


Bros, you no dey sleep...

I wonder how you know wen you dey sleep for bed...
...I usually sleep early in order to wake early and review previous day's activities before market opens

BullBearMkt:
"Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00"

Since @DeRuggedProf threw out this interesting challenge, I've checked and checked the particular stock over and over again. Knowing that statistically, using 1 dataset out of pool of stocks in NSE for this kind of findings is insufficient, I looked over at 2 other dataset with almost similar behavioural pattern. 3 datasets to me could still give room for large errors...

My findings will surprise everyone & probably many of you would want to "eat me raw" when you see me. I sincerely welcome +ve criticism and contributions to the laudable discussion brought up by @DeRuggedProf.

Summary
-Stocks that did not perform well in the last 1 year or more (for whatever reasons)
-Stocks with price depreciation of 60% and above
-Before the monumental rise, there have been lot of accumulation going
-Readily, what comes to my mind are FO and OANDO, the much rejected stocks fundamentally!

Below is the Dangote Flour Daily Chart for the period under review. I can throw out more if you wish, but for now, let the discussion begins...

Good you are sticking your neck out on this. This really demonstrates your confidence and great belief in your methodology.
I agree with your summary on the first two points i.e;
Stocks that did not perform well in the last 1 year or more( I however think the reason(s) they did not perform is very very important for us to have a better understanding)
Stocks with price depreciation of 60% and more.
I am still learning this technical stuff and that will put me at a disadvantage to say more about point three. There is one question I want to ask here ,the accumulation in dangote flour lasted for how many months?
On your conclusion, FO and Oando?
The technicals might be good but I personally prefer stocks with good fundamentals in addition to a positive charts.
Oando is weigh down with too much debt and now that they have sold all the sellable, we need to ask how they are going to pay back money owed.
FO,for me is expensive at current price but we all know price is not the only yardstick and FO can still do its magic anytime.

holm:


I answered to this= What to expect from FY16 from FBNH, not the timing of the result. Trust me, I can't wait to analyse that result. I need all results from Total, Dangflour and FBNH like yesterday.

FBNH result likely showing up today.

pluto09:


Good you are sticking your neck out on this. This really demonstrates your confidence and great belief in your methodology.
I agree with your summary on the first two points i.e;
Stocks that did not perform well in the last 1 year or more( I however think the reason(s) they did not perform is very very important for us to have a better understanding)
Stocks with price depreciation of 60% and more.
I am still learning this technical stuff and that will put me at a disadvantage to say more about point three. There is one question I want to ask here ,the accumulation in dangote flour lasted for how many months?
On your conclusion, FO and Oando?
The technicals might be good but I personally prefer stocks with good fundamentals in addition to a positive charts.
Oando is weigh down with too much debt and now that they have sold all the sellable, we need to ask how they are going to pay back money owed.
FO,for me is expensive at current price but we all know price is not the only yardstick and FO can still do its magic anytime.

Thanks pluto09. I do understand the dilemma of bad fundamental stocks providing good rally... What I will appreciate are the followings:
1. What are the fundamentals of Dangote Flour for Q1 2015 before the fall began?
2. Its fundamentals for FY 2015
3. Estimated value price based on FY 2015
4. Also its fundamentals for Q1 2016 that led partly to the massive move

This will further help us to see if the company's fundamental was in good shape by 2015 ending or not OR when the fundamental changed for better...

As per the question of how many months accumulation on the stock last? From the chart, it lasted for about a month on high volume - from mid-December 2015 to min January 2016 (circled in black)

Cheers.

BullBearMkt:

Thanks pluto09. I do understand the dilemma of bad fundamental stocks providing good rally... What I will appreciate are the followings:
1. What are the fundamentals of Dangote Flour for Q1 2015 before the fall began?
2. Its fundamentals for FY 2015
3. Estimated value price based on FY 2015
4. Also its fundamentals for Q1 2016 that led partly to the massive move

This will further help us to see if the company's fundamental was in good shape by 2015 ending or not OR when the fundamental changed for better...

Cheers.

Everything that happened to dangote flour can be explained fundamentally.
One key factor in the fundamental analysis is a change of ownership.
A little background check here will help our discussion;
In late 2012,tiger brand acquired a majority stake in dangote flour. In the first year of operation (2013), a loss of $40.5m was recorded and in 2014 they made a loss of $34.3m.
By this time,investors have lost patience with tiger brand and coupled with the fall in oil price and the possibility of a devaluation of the naira which many believed will hurt the company more,the stage was set for fall in dangote flour price.
And the rally? Dangote factor- by December 2015,dangote took the ownership of the company back which actually ignited a rally. I actually saw the rally coming then but unfortunately I was short of cash. The price was latter sustained by a very good result and so on and so forth...
Let me say this,in fundamental analysis, there is always a time lag between when an event occurs and when the price of the stock will reflect the new change.
And if dangote for any reason decides to buy into FO or Oando today, I will also join him there to make some cool cash as that will be a good fundamental change!

BullBearMkt:

Thanks pluto09. I do understand the dilemma of bad fundamental stocks providing good rally... What I will appreciate are the followings:
1. What are the fundamentals of Dangote Flour for Q1 2015 before the fall began?
2. Its fundamentals for FY 2015
3. Estimated value price based on FY 2015
4. Also its fundamentals for Q1 2016 that led partly to the massive move

This will further help us to see if the company's fundamental was in good shape by 2015 ending or not OR when the fundamental changed for better...

As per the question of how many months accumulation on the stock last? From the chart, it lasted for about a month on high volume - from mid-December 2015 to min January 2016 (circled in black)

Cheers.

Yea, December 2015 was when dangote took back the ownership of the company.

pluto09:


Everything that happened to dangote flour can be explained fundamentally.
One key factor in the fundamental analysis is a change of ownership.
A little background check here will help our discussion;
In late 2012,tiger brand acquired a majority stake in dangote flour. In the first year of operation (2013), a loss of $40.5m was recorded and in 2014 they made a loss of $34.3m.
By this time,investors have lost patience with tiger brand and coupled with the fall in oil price and the possibility of a devaluation of the naira which many believed will hurt the company more,the stage was set for fall in dangote flour price.
And the rally? Dangote factor- by December 2015,dangote took the ownership of the company back which actually ignited a rally. I actually saw the rally coming then but unfortunately I was short of cash. The price was latter sustained by a very good result and so on and so forth...
Let me say this,in fundamental analysis, there is always a time lag between when an event occurs and when the price of the stock will reflect the new change.
And if dangote for any reason decides to buy into FO or Oando today, I will also join him there to make some cool cash as that will be a good fundamental change!

@pluto09 you are one of the people I respect on this forum... I deliberately kept behind the weekly chart of the stock before. See the Weekly chart below, the decline started in 2014, 1 year after tiger brand took over & reported loss of $40.5m as you clearly mentioned.

However, do we say because of Dangote taking over alone shoot up the price without any profits cum dividend declared by the company?

I am still keen to know the company's FY 2015 and Q1 2016 results

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele, on Tuesdaysaid that the country would be out of recession in second or first half of the third quarter. Emefiele spoke after emerging from a closed session with Senate President, Abubakar Bukola Saraki, in Abuja. The CBN boss who said that the Senate President called them to brief and give update to Senate on foreign exchange market, noted that the country’s foreign reserve currently stood at $31 billion. He said that the increasing strength of the foreign reserve is giving the CBN the necessary fire power to play in the foreign exchange market. “You will all have observed that in the last two months, Central Bank has been involved in some form of intensive intervention in the foreign exchange market and this has fortunately resulted in a downward trend in the parallel market price of foreign exchange from as higher as N525 to as low as N370. Right now it hovers between N370 to N380. “I think it’s an opportunity for me to say that we are going to continue this intervention because the reserve looks very good as I speak to you our reserve stands at above $31 billion and that provides us enough of firepower or ammunition to be able to defend the currency and we will do so with all intensity to ensure that foreign exchange is procured by everybody. “You want to import raw materials, you will get foreign exchange, you want to import plant and equipment you will get foreign exchange, you want to pay school fees or you are a small business that wants to buy foreign exchange for you to import your small items you will procure foreign exchange. “And indeed we have started to see a downward trend even in prices and you have also must observe that inflation is also trending downward. “We are very much optimistic that by the end of the second quarter very latest third quarter we should be out of recession that we are in right now. “I think what is important is that last week we brought out an announcement which is meant to encourage our foreign investor community to get involved as well in the foreign exchange market. “It is the market or window that is opened for them to inflow their foreign exchange and come into the market on what we called a willing buyer, willing seller basis in which case there will be no form of any price intervention by anybody and indeed even including the Central Bank. “Indeed with the kind of firepower that we have we are also going to play in that market to ensure that as the prices move on based on the managed float regime that we run that we should be able to control the price based on willing buyer and willing seller basis. “And we believe on willing buyer, willing seller basis, foreign investors, exporter, non- exporters can come into that market and off load their capital and in doing so, we expect to see a lot of liquidity in that market and as we see much of liquidity in that market, we are very much optimistic that we are going to see high level of convergence we are hoping for,” Emefile stated. Chairman, Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and other Financial Institutions, Senator Rafiu Ibrahim, who was at the meeting, on his part said that the Senate is happy with the CBN policy direction. He said that the Senate would continue to support the apex bank in its policy direction to attract more foreign direct investment into the country. Senator Ibrahim said, “As usual the leadership of the Senate is always engaging the most important sectors of our economy. So, we had discussion with the Senate President and the Governor of CBN, and we were briefed just as he has given you the overview of the meeting. “That is what we are doing now. We will proffer more solutions which will result in more policy direction very soon because the major import of this kind of meeting is to attract foreign direct investment. So that the economy will be i

BullBearMkt:

@pluto09 you are one of the people I respect on this forum... I deliberately kept behind the weekly chart of the stock before. See the Weekly chart below, the decline started in 2014, 1 year after tiger brand took over & reported loss of $40.5m as you clearly mentioned.

However, do we say because of Dangote taking over alone shoot up the price without any profits cum dividend declared by the company?

I am still keen to know the company's FY 2015 and Q1 2016 results

Permit me to answer the bolded with a resounding YES!
Dangote's decision to stake an investment there alone is fundamental enough due to his reputation of business successes over the years.
I am a beneficiary of his reinvestment or buy back move in Tigerbrands in 2015. The news alone and a study of his plans to revive the company informed my decision to buy Tigerbrands in December 2015.
By March/April 2016 I sold with a 150% profit.
A clear case of investors buying into the future of a fundamentally poor going concern because of who is involved.

OakPearl:


Permit me to answer the bolded with a resounding YES!
Dangote's decision to stake an investment there alone is fundamental enough due to his reputation of business successes over the years.
I am a beneficiary of his reinvestment or buy back move in Tigerbrands in 2015. The news alone and a study of his plans to revive the company informed my decision to buy Tigerbrands in December 2015.
By March/April 2016 I sold with a 150% profit.
A clear case of investors buying into the future of a fundamentally poor going concern because of who is involved.

...Thanks OakPearl. It's fundamental was based on change of management/ownership and investor sentiment based on Dangote antecedent

BullBearMkt:

...I don't know if you belief in Technical Analysis. If you do, then I will say it is not yet time, maybe in a couple of days time as:

-Daily is still trying to find support
-The bears are more dominant than bulls
-The stock is pulling back after a decent rally
-Weekly is bullish (which is good for the stock)
-Keep a watch on it when price drop to 3.96 - 4.0

Cheers...

Thanks sir I will wait for that price range

Another wonderful day for Transcorp and Diamond bank.While one is trying to end the stock price loss today,the other is planning a damage control things.I think the market will choose whom to help most in today's trading.

BullBearMkt:

@pluto09 you are one of the people I respect on this forum... I deliberately kept behind the weekly chart of the stock before. See the Weekly chart below, the decline started in 2014, 1 year after tiger brand took over & reported loss of $40.5m as you clearly mentioned.

However, do we say because of Dangote taking over alone shoot up the price without any profits cum dividend declared by the company?

I am still keen to know the company's FY 2015 and Q1 2016 results

Thanks for the compliment. I always learn something new any time I engage in discussion with you.You are also fuelling a renewed interest in me to learn this technical stuff...

Like I said earlier, there will always be a time lag between a price change and the fundamentals of a company.
One thing is however constant: a company that consistently churns out bad results will experience a dip in share price no matter how long.
Dangote flour started reporting a loss in its operations from 2011 before the tiger brand people came.The reaction as to the share price might not be immediate but with a consistent operation loss for 3 to 4 years something will definitely give.
In my own opinion the mere rumour of dangote coming back to take over the company is enough impetus to trigger a rally. And don't forget we are talking about dangote here who has the capacity and the know how to move a stock from nothing to something. Add the irrational behaviour of mr market when in mood swing you will get a better picture.

"Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00"

Although it might be too early to draw conclusion on this discussion, however the followings are my take:

1. FUNDAMENTALS drive the market/stock
2. TECHNICAL helps to determine right ENTRY and EXIT periods
3. Any stock with bad fundamentals but with accumulation will possibly have its rally limited
4. Stocks that have dipped for over a period of time, and later backed up by good fundamentals & with accumulation will possible produce the kind of rally seen in Dangote Flour in 2016

Thanks to pluto09 and OakPearl for their wonderful contributions.

...Over to you DeRuggedProf! I've learnt a lot from this

DeRuggedProf:
JUST THINKING: Every year a stock does magic, that if one identified early, would have greatly profited him. Can we suggest and analyse to benefit us here? At times, some people may have hidden/insider knowledge or just amazingly interesting insights

Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00.
I almost took a cutlass to question the elders in my village....
That journey was done through level grounds, hills and valleys. It was like magic. At times the fundamentals, at other times the Technicals threw us all overboard on that journey, our life jacket was our STOP LOSS and POSITION SIZES....

Which stock do we think will do this in 2017 or are all stocks presently overvalued?

Lets kick start an interesting discussion...

BullBearMkt:
"Last year, DANGFLOUR moved below N1.00 to over N4.00"

Although it might be too early to draw conclusion on this discussion, however the followings are my take:

1. FUNDAMENTALS drive the market/stock
2. TECHNICAL helps to determine right ENTRY and EXIT periods
3. Any stock with bad fundamentals but with accumulation will possibly have its rally limited
4. Stocks that have dipped for over a period of time, and later backed up by good fundamentals & with accumulation will possible produce the kind of rally seen in Dangote Flour in 2016

Thanks to pluto09 and OakPearl for their wonderful contributions.

...Over to you DeRuggedProf! I've learnt a lot from this

That is summary of it all.100% in agreement. Thump up!

BullBearMkt:

@pluto09 you are one of the people I respect on this forum... I deliberately kept behind the weekly chart of the stock before. See the Weekly chart below, the decline started in 2014, 1 year after tiger brand took over & reported loss of $40.5m as you clearly mentioned.

However, do we say because of Dangote taking over alone shoot up the price without any profits cum dividend declared by the company?

I am still keen to know the company's FY 2015 and Q1 2016 results

[i][/i]

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/11720_TIGER_BRANDED_CONSUMER_GOODS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_DECEMBER_2015.pdf

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/12135_TIGER_BRANDED_CONSUMER_GOODS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2016.pdf

Transcorp now has some bid....

Princkez:
Transcorp now has some bid....

all bid gone brother,,, more supply in

DIAMOND BANK PLC (GROUP) AUDITED 31-Dec-16
31-12-16 31-12-15
EARNINGS: N212.4b N217.1b
PBT: N5.0b N7.1b
TAXATION: (N1.5b) (N1.3b)
PAT: N3.5b N5.7b
ASSETS: N2,049.8b N1,753.2b
LIABILITIES: N1,823.1b N1,538.6b
EQUITY: N226.7b N214.6b

CORPORATE ACTION
PROPOSED DIVIDEND: NIL
PROPOSED BONUS: NIL
AGM DATE: 19-05-2017
AGM VENUE: THE CIVIC CENTRE, OZUMBA MBADIWE AVENUE, OPPOSITE 1004, VICTORIA ISLAND LAGOS

currentprice:


all bid gone brother,,, more supply in

who are those buying...i smell something

TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION OF NIGERIA PLC
UNAUDITED GROUP FINANCIAL STATEMENT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 MARCH, 2017
MARCH 2017 MARCH 2016 N'000 N'000 Turnover: 15,767,796 13,192,829
Profit before Tax: 1,734,708 1,729,935
Income tax expense (238,373) (524,124)
Profit for the period: 1,496,335 1,205,811
Earnings per share (k): 0.91 1.12

Fcmb
- 1.05 OP !!
- market marker don start en juju lol !

GTB
- SP breaks above 25 , TA looks far better than Zenith

Oando
- 5.66 OP ! ! na wa

Note:
OP opening price
CP closing price
SP share price

For those who want to play a calculated risk game in Diamond bank,begin now to watch the technicals.it is almost at another good entry price awaiting Q1 results.
This game will be sweet this time...........Damage control things ongoing.............thru Q1 result.

locodemy:
For those who want to play a calculated risk game in Diamond bank,begin now to watch the technicals.it is almost at another good entry price awaiting Q1 results.
This game will be sweet this time...........Damage control things ongoing.............thru Q1 result.

My eyes on diamond bank too.
They should not release the q1 result till next week,the price never fall enough!

locodemy:
For those who want to play a calculated risk game in Diamond bank,begin now to watch the technicals.it is almost at another good entry price awaiting Q1 results.
This game will be sweet this time...........Damage control things ongoing.............thru Q1 result.

...THAT SHOULD BE BLIND RISK!!!