tbaba1234: I am beginning to think you are a marketer not a technical person... Surely you must have thought that your claims would be disputed.

I welcome healthy debate. Its the very reason I started the thread. Debate aids learning and growth.

Barcholder:

Sorry, i'm not following your point. Please explain what it is you are asking me, and I'll do my best to oblige.

Thanks

My question is simple.

I reviewed tbaba1234 calculation which took into consideration a "highly liberal" assumption which if I where the one, I wouldn't. His calculation was based on 1kw of electricity @ 8760 (24hrs per day x 365 days a year). This is given the constant of if power is generated at the figures above which is VERY IMPOSSIBLE. There's no power generation for 24hrs a day continuously for 365 days a year, at least not if it depended completely on the sun.

However, going by your own claims of 7hr of electricity per day x 365days a year will yield 2,555Kw annually. This figure hasn't taken into consideration of the 17% (max) capacity factor like you assumed, though his was assumed at 15% (0.15). At 0.15 capacity (0.15 x 2,555 = 383Kw of power directly converted. So how does this translate into 57,000Kw of power in its lifespan of 25years? I mean there are tons of questions needing answers, this is the part I want you to validate very well.

I wrote that,,, I did not copy it from anywhere...


The growth of Solar industry in the west is because of government incentives. In the US, there is production investment tax credit and most utilities are compelled to produce PV with the renewable portfolio standards...

Take away the incentives and the industry would collapse...

tbaba1234: I wrote that,,, I did not copy it from anywhere...


The growth of Solar industry in the west is because of government incentives. In the US, there is production investment tax credit and most utilities are compelled to produce PV with the renewable portfolio standards...

Take away the incentives and the industry would collapse...

Grid parity in the West is pretty close. And you are wrong, far from potentially collapsing, its set to grow from strength to strength. See the recent IPO of Solarcity for evidence of that, and it's subsequent stock market performance.

Those subsidies were put in place because the cost of Solar Energy was so very high when they first started offering them. There was no way anybody would have been able to afford to buy at full prices 5 years ago, were it not for the subsidies.

The picture is now greatly changed - subsidies are no longer required in many Western States because unit costs have fallen so dramatically. Plus, the emergence of the likes of Solar City, with their innovative long term leasing model has led to an absolute explosion in demand for Solar Energy in USA. See the article I attached earlier. The market in the USA is expected to grow by 70% this year, and that's off a pretty high base already.

If nothing else, the massive uptake of Solar in the west, regardless of whether it's subsidy driven or not, is enormous testimony to the efficiency of Solar Energy. So you can imagine why I find many of the comments on here somewhat laughable (present company excepted - you clearly are an educated poster).

The economics of the power industry in Nigeria are COMPLETELY different to anywhere in the west, because the average cost of a unit is so grotesquely high due to the prevalent use of generators. So comparing the West with Nigeria is not really comparing "apples with apples"

manny4life:

My question is simple.

I reviewed tbaba1234 calculation which took into consideration a "highly liberal" assumption which if I where the one, I wouldn't. His calculation was based on 1kw of electricity @ 8760 (24hrs per day x 365 days a year). This is given the constant of if power is generated at the figures above which is VERY IMPOSSIBLE. There's no power generation for 24hrs a day continuously for 365 days a year, at least not if it depended completely on the sun.

However, going by your own claims of 7hr of electricity per day x 365days a year will yield 2,555Kw annually. This figure hasn't taken into consideration of the 17% (max) capacity factor like you assumed, though his was assumed at 15% (0.15). At 0.15 capacity (0.15 x 2,555 = 383Kw of power directly converted. So how does this translate into 57,000Kw of power in its lifespan of 25years? I mean there are tons of questions needing answers, this is the part I want you to validate very well.

Your understanding of the energy production of Solar panels is totally flawed. Please read one of my earlier posts where I completely explain this point. You clearly have no idea what 17% panel efficiency means.

Ok o, it's totally flawed, I agree but you haven't put forward a sound calculation other than assumptions

Barcholder:

You are TOTALLY misunderstanding what's being said here.

1. The average efficiency of the panels we use are 17% - the very highest available in the world today. What does that mean? It simply means that each panel converts 17% of the total energy it receives from the sun into electricity. A 250w panel produces 250 watts of electricity. It's approximately 1650 * 990 mm in size. 8 such panels produce 2kW of electricity. If the efficiency of the panels were 34% for example, all that means is that the panels would only need to be half the size to produce the exact same amount of electricity (think of the development in computer chip technology - your smartphone has the same processing power as a computer that would have filled a room in 1975).

2. The efficiency we refer to is the amount of energy the panels will be producing after 10, years, 25 years etc. Our panels come with a performance guarantee of 90% performance after 10 years, and 80% after 25 years. Put another way, a 2kW system that produces, for round numbers sake, 10kWhs of electricity each day, will only produce 9kWs' a day after 10 years, and 8kW's a day after 25 years.

We compensate for this by simply providing you with an additional panel after 10 years, to make up for the natural reduction in energy production, such that you will still be producing 10kWh's of electricity from the system after 25 years.

I hope that clears up your misunderstanding.

Again, according to you, here's your post again. I may not be good at explaining well how I mean, but there it is.

One simple question for you, if solar panels are able to generate 8,760Kw of power, and according to the bold, it has an average of 17% efficiency, (conversion of solar power into electricity), what will be the total conversion for the 8,760?

Thank you.

See, i am an insider in the industry... If incentives are taken away, the industry would collapse...

The tax credit is supposed to expire in 2016... If you check the grid interconnection for PJM (a regional transmission organisation for many states in North eastern USA..

You will see very little PV planned to come online after 2016. All of them are hoping that government extends the credits, otherwise they can not keep building plants.

It is just not profitable.

For PJM generation interconnection: http://www.pjm.com/planning/generation-interconnection.aspx

As regards the '17%' panel efficiency...

Bros, the capacity factor differs from place to place and it depends on a number of factors... The capacity factor of your production can not be 17% wherever you place it.

So even that argument is flawed..

manny4life: Ok o, it's totally flawed, I agree but you haven't put forward a sound calculation other than assumptions



Again, according to you, here's your post again. I may not be good at explaining well how I mean, but there it is.

One simple question for you, if solar panels are able to generate 8,760Kw of power, and according to the bold, it has an average of 17% efficiency, (conversion of solar power into electricity), what will be the total conversion for the 8,760?

Thank you.

I suspect we're being somewhat academic here. Efficiency is about how much energy, given it's SIZE, solar panels can generate. For a given size, a 'high' efficiency panel can produce the SAME amount of energy for a bigger (LESS efficient)solar panel.

I suspect this is the rationale behind Barcholder including the dimensions of a particular set of solar panels in the example that was used.

Mugono:


I suspect we're being somewhat academic here. Efficiency is about how much energy, given it's SIZE, solar panels can generate. For a given size, a 'high' efficiency panel can produce the SAME amount of energy for a bigger (LESS efficient)solar panel.

I suspect this is the rationale behind Barcholder including the dimensions of a particular set of solar panels in the example that was used.

I do not think, you fully understand what manny is saying.

The bone of the contention is the cost/kwh is much more than what the OP presented... Barcholder has been unable to show how his panel produce that much energy.

It is simple mathematics... It is about the facts not making assumptions...

Mugono:


I suspect we're being somewhat academic here. Efficiency is about how much energy, given it's SIZE, solar panels can generate. For a given size, a 'high' efficiency panel can produce the SAME amount of energy for a bigger (LESS efficient)solar panel.

I suspect this is the rationale behind Barcholder including the dimensions of a particular set of solar panels in the example that was used.

Look bro, regardless of his rationale, whether size or not wasn't my question to him, I got that point of his argument. There were several questions that should have been answered which he did not, the efficiency wasn't the issue, but how much efficient is what he has failed to answered. For a high efficiency panel, like his example of ( 250 watt sized panel given 2Kw, I asked him a simple question, give us examples with calculations.

If you look at the file tbaba1234 put up, at least to some point, the assumptions where understandable. I'm not very good at stating my questions very clearly, but I'm really want to see how he calculated his own numbers. If you gonna sell me something, come correct.

tbaba1234:

I do not think, you fully understand what manny is saying.

The bone of the contention is the cost/kwh is much more than what the OP presented... Barcholder has been unable to show how his panel produce that much energy.

It is simple mathematics... It is about the facts not making assumptions...

Bros thank you o,

Even the OP knew my question but was trying to shy away from it.

Even your own calculation took into consideration 24hr/365 a year calculation which I said was VERY LIBERAL but understandable. There was no way a panel will generate solar power for straight 24hrs a day, yet, in his own claims, he unknowingly shot himself on the foot by saying 7hrs of sunlight which is 1/3rd of yours, aka about 3x cost your own number everything remaining equal. This is no rocket science.

manny4life:



Look bro, regardless of his rationale, whether size or not wasn't my question to him, I got that point of his argument. There were several questions that should have been answered which he did not, the efficiency wasn't the issue, but how much efficient is what he has failed to answered. For a high efficiency panel, like his example of ( 250 watt sized panel given 2Kw, I asked him a simple question, give us examples with calculations.

If you look at the file tbaba1234 put up, at least to some point, the assumptions where understandable. I'm not very good at stating my questions very clearly, but I'm really want to see how he calculated his own numbers. If you gonna sell me something, come correct.

For some inexplicable reason, the moderators have seen fit to ban me from posting on here, so I've had to create a new username specifically to answer your question.

I will give a 1 time, clear and concise explanation and I hope you understand:

1. The efficiency rating of a Solar Panel ONLY determines its size - currently, the maximum efficiency rating in the world is around 17% (in commercial production, not just testing). This SIMPLY means that the panel only converts 17% of the sun's energy it receives into electricity. The 250W panels we use measure 1650 * 900 mm in size. It emits 250W of electricity. PERIOD. The higher the level of efficiency, the SMALLER the panel will be. For example, at 34% efficiency, the panel will measure 825 * 450 mm in size. It will STILL produce 250W of electricity.

Why is this important? Because at the moment, when you are installing very large (100 KW +) commercial installations, you often don't have enough roof space given the number of panels required at their current size. So they are usually fitted on the ground instead. So, the big development in solar technology will be increased panel efficiency, meaning that you would be able to install ALL the panels on the roof, as you would only need half the current number of panels. Please note, this is only relevant to very large commercial installations. There is enough roof space on every home to fit enough panels to generate at least 4 times the energy requirements for the home.

2. The amount of energy produced by a solar panel is DIRECTLY dependent on the amount of Peak sunlight hours it's exposed to each day. The more more sunlight it receives, the more energy it produces. FULL STOP. A 1kW panel array (e.g. 4 * 250W panels) generates 1kWh of electricity for each hour of sunlight it receives. If it receives 6 hours of sunlight a day, it produces 6kWs of electricity a day. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. It is exactly like asking the question - how much energy does a 1000w AC use if you ran it for 1 hour. The answer is self evident - 1000wH's or 1kWh.

Now, to calculate how what size solar system a household needs to generate 24 hours of electricity, you simply ascertain how many units of electricity (kWh's) that household uses each day, then work out the average peak sunlight hours for the location, and work backwards from there. For example, across Nigeria, the mean average amount of Peak sunlight received each day is 6.25 hours (higher in the north, lower in the south). To simplify the calculation, lets just use 5 hours as our base.

A home which requires 8 kWh's of energy every 24 hours would need, to be safe, a 2kW system, which would produce 10kWh's of electricity every day. Fully 25% more than is needed.

As the years go by, the production efficiency of the panels decrease. The panels we use come with a guarantee of 90% efficiency after 10 years, and 80% after 25years. In other words, after 10 years, still using our 5 peak hours example, the panels will be producing 2 * 5 * 0.9 kWh's of energy each day - 9kWh's a day. After 25 years, it will be 8kWh's a day.

This is a cast iron guarantee that we provide. If it falls below those production levels, we give you an additional panel FOR FREE to make up the difference.

I really know no other way to answer your question. That's the best I can do.

Bros, this is all grammar...

simple mathematics... How can you not factor in capacity factor and discount factor??

Again, make the maths clear.... How did you arrive at 57,000 for 25 years? show us the maths....

Then validate the cost/kwh...

2. The amount of energy produced by a solar panel is DIRECTLY dependent on the amount of Peak sunlight hours it's exposed to each day. The more more sunlight it receives, the more energy it produces. FULL STOP. A 1kW panel array (e.g. 4 * 250W panels) generates 1kWh of electricity for each hour of sunlight it receives. If it receives 6 hours of sunlight a day, it produces 6kWs of electricity a day. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. It is exactly like asking the question - how much energy does a 1000w AC use if you ran it for 1 hour. The answer is self evident - 1000wH's or 1kWh.

Having read this without accounting for the capacity factor, this argument will yield futile results, so I QUIT.

tbaba1234: Bros, this is all grammar...

simple mathematics... How can you not factor in capacity factor and discount factor??

Again, make the maths clear.... How did you arrive at 57,000 for 25 years? show us the maths....

Then validate the cost/kwh...

Like seriously, any given person who wants to prove their point would have given this calculation in 10mins. This really bothers me because his calculation/assumptions are just disturbing for the most part.

tbaba1234: Bros, this is all grammar...

simple mathematics... How can you not factor in capacity factor and discount factor??

Again, make the maths clear.... How did you arrive at 57,000 for 25 years? show us the maths....

Then validate the cost/kwh...

The capacity and discount factor are accounted for because we provide you with an extra panel for free, so your 25 year efficiency is 100% - there is no discount factor.

The numbers are as follows.

Cost of 1kW system - N700,000 (this is what WE WILL charge)
Average daily energy production - 1 * 6.25 = 6.25kWh's a day
Annual energy production - 6.25 * 365 = 2,281.25 kWh's
25 Year's energy production - 2,281.25 * 25 = 57,031.25 (note as I explain below, we provide an additional panel over the period to compensate for the natural loss of efficiency over 25 years)
Cost of replacement Inverters - replaced every 10 years - that's a guarantee - N108,000 (we guarantee to provide replacements to you at little over our cost price - we manufacture them directly ourselves)
Total Cost of the system - 808,000

Total cost per kWh excluding any discount factor - 808000/57031.25 = N14.16 per kWh

I have loosely applied a discount factor of around 5% to reflect cost of capital, and rounded up to N15.5 per kWh (I'm very sorry, I didn't realise I was re-sitting my Chartered Accountancy exams, otherwise I'd have prepared detailed workings for you to mark).

This is how I've arrived at my numbers.

Beaf!:
@poster

I have a 5KVA inverter with 200x4AH deep-circle batteries, six solar charging panels. I enjoy lights, TVs, fans etc for as long as possible. But I wouldnt dare connect my ACs, Refrigerators, Electric kettles, irons etc.

I cant afford to install a higher capacity inverter.

Tell me, how can I write off PHCN?

Increase both the number of batteries and solar panels 6-10 times.

manny4life:

Like seriously, any given person who wants to prove their point would have given this calculation in 10mins. This really bothers me because his calculation/assumptions are just disturbing for the most part.

I'm busy trying to launch a potentially multi billion dollar company. Please excuse the fact that I don't have all day to sit on these pages.

Barcs:

I'm busy trying to launch a potentially multi billion dollar company. Please excuse the fact that I don't have all day to sit on these pages.

God bless your hustle brother, I wish you and your company success, but if you're gonna sell to someone like me, your marketers need to come correct.

i do not use any of the above mentioned method because i have invented a better method.THINGS NEEDED FOR THE SET UP.
1plastic drum.note- iron drum is not used to prevent shorck.
put two terminals into it,one silver coated metal ,the other cupper rod.these two things will serve as your positive nd negative.
select 20 electrick fish,make shure they are all males.
put them inside the brum nd add water treated with little salt nd iodine to increase conductivity.
do not ever put your hand inside the water even when feeding to prevent shorck.
with 1thousand watts stabilizer connected to the terminals you will be able to get enogh energy for two small rooms.can produce up to 1kw /h
note.when the fish are hungery the voltage will drop but after feeding it will come back to normall.shuld be fed 2x daily.
thanks.
if need the set up contact me true my e-mail,that is also my users name.

manny4life:

God bless your hustle brother, I wish you and your company success, but if you're gonna sell to someone like me, your marketers need to come correct.

Appreciate the sentiment. But like seriously, we really are splitting hairs. It really is quite simple - if you are happy to continue to spend what will soon be N105 per kWh of electricity through use of your diesel generator, rather than, at worst, 25% of that by Solar, then by all means continue to do so. It's a free country.

Fortunately, the hospitals we are about to supply with full Solar Systems that will save them an average of £400,000 a year in diesel costs (yes, that's right, N96m) think otherwise. As do the growing number of businesses and households from whom we are now taking pre orders from.

Talk is cheap, so I'd rather get on with trying to deliver. Our results will speak for themselves.

I've really enjoyed our debate.

Barcs:

The capacity and discount factor are accounted for because we provide you with an extra panel for free, so your 25 year efficiency is 100% - there is no discount factor.

The numbers are as follows.

Cost of 1kW system - N700,000 (this is what WE WILL charge)
Average daily energy production - 1 * 6.25 = 6.25kWh's a day
Annual energy production - 6.25 * 365 = 2,281.25 kWh's
25 Year's energy production - 2,281.25 * 25 = 57,031.25 (note as I explain below, we provide an additional panel over the period to compensate for the natural loss of efficiency over 25 years)
Cost of replacement Inverters - replaced every 10 years - that's a guarantee - N108,000 (we guarantee to provide replacements to you at little over our cost price - we manufacture them directly ourselves)
Total Cost of the system - 808,000

Total cost per kWh excluding any discount factor - 808000/57031.25 = N14.16 per kWh

I have loosely applied a discount factor of around 5% to reflect cost of capital, and rounded up to N15.5 per kWh (I'm very sorry, I didn't realise I was re-sitting my Chartered Accountancy exams, otherwise I'd have prepared detailed workings for you to mark).

This is how I've arrived at my numbers.

Thank you,

I still disagree..

1. An average daily generation of 6.25kwh is impossible... That gives you a capacity factor of 27%.... That is totally impossible... Except you have invented the best solar panel known to man...

i. at 6.25kwh, you arrive at 2281kwh annually

ii. Divide by 8760

iii. you get 27%... Not reasonable..

2. You can not make any calculations regarding future costs without putting into consideration the discount factor... Money has a time value.


It is still inaccurate

But i hope you get where i am coming from... All the best in your exam... tell your marketers to come very well prepared if they want to sell to me lol

God bless you and all the best

tbaba1234: Also the fact that the sun shines for 9 hours does not mean that the panel would produce at full capacity during that period.

The tilt of the panel matters as well. Does your panel move with the sun??

What i am trying to point out is that, there is no way a solar panel can be cheaper than PHCN grid...

Photovoltaic energy is not economically dispatchable for a reason

Nigeria is pretty much on the equator so panels don't need to do a lot of rotating.

tbaba1234:

Thank you,

I still disagree..

1. An average daily generation of 6.25kwh is impossible... That gives you a capacity factor of 27%.... That is totally impossible... Except you have invented the best solar panel known to man...

i. at 6.25kwh, you arrive at 2281kwh annually

ii. Divide by 8760

iii. you get 27%... Not reasonable..

2. You can not make any calculations regarding future costs without putting into consideration the discount factor... Money has a time value.


It is still inaccurate

But i hope you get where i am coming from... All the best in your exam... tell your marketers to come very well prepared if they want to sell to me lol

God bless you and all the best

Respect to you my friend. Thanks for the best wishes. I'm pretty sure if ever we met, we'd become good friends. You have a very powerful personality like I do.

Regards

Uvie

@OP if you can pull off the financing aspect....you will have a shot.. but what will be your factor for consumer credit rating?? and if a consumer is not able to meet his monthly payments what will happen....??

Barcs:

Appreciate the sentiment. But like seriously, we really are splitting hairs. It really is quite simple - if you are happy to continue to spend what will soon be N105 per kWh of electricity through use of your diesel generator, rather than, at worst, 25% of that by Solar, then by all means continue to do so. It's a free country.

Fortunately, the hospitals we are about to supply with full Solar Systems that will save them an average of £400,000 a year in diesel costs (yes, that's right, N96m) think otherwise. As do the growing number of businesses and households from whom we are now taking pre orders from.

Talk is cheap, so I'd rather get on with trying to deliver. Our results will speak for themselves.

I've really enjoyed our debate.

Sentiment kwa? Bros, I sincerely wished you a success business out of the my heart, what I said wasn't out of sentiments but honesty. I really do want you to excel in your business as you launch it, and like I usually say, GOD BLESS YOUR HUSTLE BROTHER, but like you said, results speak for themselves. God almighty or whichever you believe in, grant u strength and keep you business because I'd like to hear your success stories two/three years down the road.

Barcholder:

You simply don't have a clue what you are talking about. I could literally provide you with 50 websites that spell out the fallacy of your statement. It's really not worth the trouble.

Information is free - Google is your friend. Look him up. Don't pretend to be an expert when you know nothing. Solar energy adoption in the US is growing at a rapid pace in the USA. I should know, seeing as I spend 6 months a year there.

Here are just a few websites for people to read to CATEGORICALLY prove you wrong.

http://gigaom.com/2012/12/25/5-charts-that-show-the-amazing-growth-in-solar-in-2012-charts/

I readily await your response.

[b]Obviously, you are just a salesman. I can give you links to various websites such as Multi-Level Marketing firms that use graphs and data to project how much profit therein the business. Anyone can post anything online, which is why citing websites in projects are avoided and/or frowned at in researches.

Like a call center operator, you keep reading off your script without in depth knowledge of the technology you are marketing. Expert or no expert, I am engaging you here with a common sense. It is very expensive to instal a solar system that can power a whole house. If you have pictures of solar projects that you did, simply present it with the attendant cost analysis instead of embellishing plagiarized data.

You remind me of graduate students and their thesis with no real life experience. They just cram and quote numbers based
on other people's studies. Someone threw a challenge here---run a sample solar system in a house of your choice and
come back one year with the result.

I can bet that you don't have solar system in your house. Do you? If yes, show us pictures. If No, why not? Let me tell you your story. A solar production company invited you to a conference in a fancy hotel. They did their presentation or so-called training. They ran numbers by you and told you that they are listed on NYSE. Also, they had the financial backing of Banks X,Y,Z. Wow! What a nice opportunity...Nigerians here you come. LOL.

One thing I respect about Nigerians is that they are highly resourceful. You throw out any abracadabra like you just did, they will come back slinging. Got my drift?

I don't want to rain on your parade. You still need more marketing training with your parent company to really pull this off. People will ask questions. Good luck[/b]

Barcholder:

That IS the start up cost of Solar Power. There is only one cost of solar, and that is the start up cost. Once purchased, there are no additional running costs and they last for at least 25 years. They CANNOT break down, as there are no moving parts (the ONLY reason it will cease to work is because the people who installed it were morons). There is nothing to break down. Once installed, they continue to convert sunlight into electricity. It's actually a very simple technology, and is used extensively around the world.

HOW MANY SOLAR PANELS WILL IT TAKE TO POWER A 3 BEDROOM FLAT??

My uncle imports solar panels and the popular "MING" bulbs.... my guy, the business is more complicated than you think.

WHAT OF WHEN THE WEATHER IS SOOO BAD AND THE SUN DONT SHINE MUCH??

A COMMON SOLAR LAMP IS 3,500k

THEN IMAGINE A HUGE SOLAR PANEL BIG ENOUGH TO POWER A HOUSE, THAT WILL BE OVER A MILLION!!.... HOW MANY NIGERIANS CAN AFFORD THAT

BEST OF LUCK THOUGH.... ON THE BRIGHTER SIDE, IF YOU GET A STATE CONTRACT TO DELIVER "SOLAR POWERED STREET LIGHTS" THEN YOU'LL BE A BILLIONAIRE OVER-NIGHT....

I LOVE YOUR SPIRIT BUT I WANT YOU TO THREAD CAREFULLY.....
IF YOU HAVE THE MONEY TO DO BIG BUSINESS, EITHER YOU START A SOLAR MANUFACTURING PLANT HERE AND SELL AT A CHEAPER RATE, OR YOU IMPORT ELECTRONICS LIKE FONES AND ALL.... SHIKENA!!