My own view: If GEJ secures the 2015 PDP ticket he will likely use the USA and money to appease Tinubu discreetly. The US (the real capitalists cannot work with Buhari) can easily tell Tinubu to stand down (secretly) because they can easily pull the plug off him. The majority of the North central (NC)/middle belt will likely vote GEJ rather than a core Hausa/fulani from the NW or NE especially as a result of the constant fulani herdsmen clashes with farmers and other Northern minorities. The SS and SE will obviously get a GEJ block vote despite Rochas and the Amaechi saga. GEJ will also get substantial votes from Southern Kaduna (NW), Adamawa (NE) and a few votes from minorities in other NW and NE states. But these will come only after a lot of money (maybe half of 2015 budget) have changed hands. Time will tell.

But this position can only be tackled effectively if the NW and NE supports a popular candidate from the middle belt as President and also a popular candidate from the SW (perhaps Fashola as VP). But will they? and/or get the neceassary support from the USA.

PS: I am non-partisan and anything can still happen in politics. Kindly express your own views without insults. Thank you.

The USA can work with Fashola (as VP) as he has proven to be a capitalist in Lagos State.

And how are u sure north central will note vote somebody from core north? Have u forgotten they voted yaradua?

If they cud vote gej, i see no reason why they will not vote somebody from core north.

I'm sure they did worst by voting gej last time; o'cos, voting herdsman this time will be a better option for the mddle-beltans than voting gej again.

caseless: And how are u sure north central will note vote somebody from core north? Have u forgotten they voted yaradua?

If they cud vote gej, i see no reason why they will not vote somebody from core north.

I'm sure they did worst by voting gej last time; o'cos, voting herdsman this time will be a better option for the mddle-beltans than voting gej again.

To placate the core-North once again, GEJ will probably sacrifice (remove/replace) Sambo as his running mate for the 2015 elections and replace him with any of these governors:
1. Sokoto - Wamako ( surprised!)
2. Jigawa - Lamido ( surprised!)
3. Katsina - Shema
4. Bauchi - Yuguda
5. Any other cool headed governor from the core-North (NW or NE).

These above mentioned governors will be given the right of first refusal simultaneously (confusing!) while he (GEJ) will promise to hand over to any of them come 2019. He will also promise the VP slot in 2019 to any PDP SE governor (making Rochas to likely return to PDP before/after the 2015 elections) in order for the SE to return to the pecking order of the presidency.

The current major opposition (APC) unofficially headed by BAT will sellout their 2015 presidential ambition (discreetly once again) when the time comes.

In Nigerian politics, personal/self interest and money comes first before religion, ethnicity,ideology, party affiliation, etc. I pity people who die over Nigerian politicians.

These are likely (all things being equal) scenarios subject to change in the event of the death of any major political actor (remember Abacha and Yar' Adua).

Real politics is negotiated by a few people.

Peterwins:

To placate the core-North once again, GEJ will probably sacrifice (remove/replace) Sambo as his running mate for the 2015 elections and replace him with any of these governors:
1. Sokoto - Wamako ( surprised!)
2. Jigawa - Lamido ( surprised!)
3. Katsina - Shema
4. Bauchi - Yuguda
5. Any other cool headed governor from the core-North (NW or NE).

These above mentioned governors will be given the right of first refusal simultaneously (confusing!) while he (GEJ) will promise to hand over to any of them come 2019. He will also promise the VP slot in 2019 to any PDP SE governor (making Rochas to likely return to PDP before/after the 2015 elections) in order for the SE to return to the pecking order of the presidency.

The current major opposition (APC) unofficially headed by BAT will sellout their 2015 presidential ambition (discreetly once again) when the time comes.

In Nigerian politics, personal/self interest and money comes first before religion, ethnicity,ideology, party affiliation, etc. I pity people who die over Nigerian politicians.

These are likely (all things being equal) scenarios subject to change in the event of the death of any major political actor (remember Abacha and Yar' Adua).

Real politics is negotiated by a few people.

in as much as i dont disagree wth on most point raised, i stil blive somethin cud change this time around. It is foreseeable that sambo might be dropped come 2015, he is also not sleeping on this unfortunate fate that might befall him....he(sambo) is calculating too. He has lost his political might anyway, stil yet, dont write him off. Gej is fooolishly digging a ditch for his percievd political enemy, and this he will fall in.politics Is not always mathematics u knw.

The problem with Nigeria is Politics.

People have been plotting over 2015 since 2011. this gave rise to the sudden sophistication of Boko Haram, in the north and the media onslaught from the southwest. No time was given for collaboration in governance to achieve development. Even if GEJ is not the president in 2015, do you really think some persons will allow that government to succeed? anyway we they watch...

caseless: in as much as i dont disagree wth on most point raised, i stil blive somethin cud change this time around. It is foreseeable that sambo might be dropped come 2015, he is also not sleeping on this unfortunate fate that might befall him....he(sambo) is calculating too. He has lost his political might anyway, stil yet, dont write him off. Gej is fooolishly digging a ditch for his percievd political enemy, and this he will fall in.politics Is not always mathematics u knw.

Sambo is obviously quiet but not sleeping. Just as GEJ was also watching events unfold during Yar Adua's (illness) saga. The politics (presidential) of 2015 will remain very fluid as various nocturnal meetings hold and planned/unplanned events unfolds. The generals (OBJ, IBB, et al)already know what to do at the behest of the west (the real capitalist/CIA).

The current major political ranting are mere smoke-screens to deceive/manipulate the undiscerning public.

duality: The problem with Nigeria is Politics.

People have been plotting over 2015 since 2011. this gave rise to the sudden sophistication of Boko Haram, in the north and the media onslaught from the southwest. No time was given for collaboration in governance to achieve development. Even if GEJ is not the president in 2015, do you really think some persons will allow that government to succeed? anyway we they watch...

Quite sad. The fact is that if GEJ doesn't get the 2015 PDP ticket/re-elected, the ND militants (presumably docile right now with amnesty) will start their own "boko-haram" on Oil facilities; a situation the country cannot afford economically as about 95% (reported) of our forex comes from crude oil sales.

Underestimate Sambo at ur own Peril
The man has shown uncommon loyalty to hid boss which would not go unnoticed by the PDP echelons..
My guess is, GEJ would go along with Sambo till 2019 and then hand over to the same Sambo!
The name of the game is "Loyalty"

Underestimate Sambo at ur own Peril
The man has shown uncommon loyalty to his boss which would not go unnoticed by the PDP echelons..
My guess is, GEJ would go along with Sambo till 2019 and then hand over to the same Sambo!
The name of the game is "Loyalty"

Peterwins:

Sambo is obviously quiet but not sleeping. Just as GEJ was also watching events unfold during Yar Adua's (illness) saga. The politics (presidential) of 2015 will remain very fluid as various nocturnal meetings hold and planned/unplanned events unfolds. The generals (OBJ, IBB, et al)already know what to do at the behest of the west (the real capitalist/CIA).

The current major political ranting are mere smoke-screens to deceive/manipulate the undiscerning public.

oboi....na d quiet VPs de bite pass. If u recall, gej was in turai's skirt back then, but when d opportunity slided his way , he became d alpha-male of his party or nigeria. Sometimes u cant jst predict these asinines on their next line of actions.

Again, talking about d generals. Gej has made obj irrelevant like he(obj) did to ibb. So obj wld stop at nothing to have gej munched come 2015. Have u heard or read about what caused the face-off btw obj and gej? Ok, u'l be pulled to accept that obj is fighting to avoid political oblivion and as such he wldnt trade with gej jst to remain extant in our political arena.
Gej's political flaws are conspicous, and this certainly will make him fall prey to his predators.

Peterwins: The USA can work with Fashola (as VP) as he has proven to be a capitalist in Lagos State.

I see anoda fashola sympathizer. Ur handle name is noted so we can know who they are..

This dunce came as non partisan only to be an advocate of GEJ buhahahahahha

Una go fail... I'll tell you one thing, USA will meddle but they will lose Nigeria as an ally simple..

the election will not be free and fair but GEJ will be bundled out of office by the military because we all know what's going to happen if the North doesn't win with the support of SW. If GEJ is thinking middle belt will vote for him? He should think twice. Same Middle belt voted Buhari. Same north central voted Buhari and now that SW is obviously not voting GEJ, tell me his chances if not for another Bipi event? 5 is greater than 27. GEJ will not sacrifice his ambition for Unity of Nigeria so he will most likely forfeit his life.

Stop speculating on 2015, watch the events unfolding from December 2013 starting in Lagos and you will be confused.

drnoel:
I see anoda fashola sympathizer. Ur handle name is noted so we can know who they are..

if na dat one u dey note, ur whole notebok and jotter go soon pull. they plenty for nigeria, even ya own household.

but fact of the matter is its not about who the cia/usa thinks is capitalistic...the us will actually prefer that we separate so they can sell both sides arms and finally put a base in the niger delta (forget shale)

i dont know what will happen in 2015, i just hope it doesnt get too bloody

scribble:

if na dat one u dey note, ur whole notebok and jotter go soon pull. they plenty for nigeria, even ya own household.

but fact of the matter is its not about who the cia/usa thinks is capitalistic...the us will actually prefer that we separate so they can sell both sides arms and finally put a base in the niger delta (forget shale)

i dont know what will happen in 2015, i just hope it doesnt get too bloody

How right u are about fashola sympathizers but nobody 4 ma house like the man. Must of my house members are just nonchalant, they no send.
About shale, I sabi say many people like u still dey think say Nigeria oil dey impt. Let me bust ur bubble here, nigeria is regarded by the international community as a failed state. U here here say EU recently put a ban on all exported oil and gas from west Africa (Nigeria to be precise). Them talk say na make them check would theft. Then come talk say ok, them go make oil from west African contraband but only if an original certificate of purchase I'd produced by the oil companies cos them sabi say these oil companies dey patronize oil bunkering.
So back to shale, u Neva hear say china done already invest more than some 10/11 round figures into shale production. Recently, england show for documentary land way them serve commit for shale oil and gas, the land was more than 200 hectares of open space and them talk say them go invest some billion, but say na beginners stage them dey. USA down also begin experimentation but no one talk wet in dem dey do.
To cut long story short. These people sabi say naija oil no go last more that 20 years so them done begin prepare for the future so that them go ready once African oil finish. So pls understand that naija oil is immaterial.

Idoma Likita: Underestimate Sambo at ur own Peril
The man has shown uncommon loyalty to his boss which would not go unnoticed by the PDP echelons..
My guess is, GEJ would go along with Sambo till 2019 and then hand over to the same Sambo!
The name of the game is "Loyalty"

i hope u are not mistaking his lack of political might for loyalty.
See, u cant be a vp of nigeria and be that mute indifferent. Sambo is a white elephant, even his hausa brothers know about this.

Nigeria has ELECTIONS?
OHU IBERIBE!!!!!!

Nonsense analysis. GEJ will not drop Sambo for anything.