I am not from Anambra State but as an Igbo man and a Nigerian, I am interested in the outcome of the November 16th 2013 gubernatorial elections in the state. As a vocal commentator and patriotic Nigerian, I have analyzed, voiced my opinion and attempted to gauge the political temperature in the state inundated with political heavy weights, erudite business men and political godfathers. I have also tried to forecast the winner of the election but suffix it to note that this election sums up to an unpredictable political equation. To give you a feel, news filtered in this morning that the candidature of the PDP has been conceded to Tony Nwoye by the Supreme Court of Nigeria. Tony Nwoye is currently battling for for the ticket of People's Democratic Party (PDP) (with Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, the current flagbearer); Africa's and Nigeria's largest political party. Less than a month to the elections one of the biggest contenders does not have a substantial flagbearer, now that is the level of unpredictability of the approaching elections.

Currently, I live in Nigeria's biggest city, Lagos state ad I cannot categorically gauge the political temperature i.e the perception of Anambrians about the candidates. More so, I am from Abia state, which implies that my interests are limited.I have lived in Anambra State and I have friends who are at the forefront of the campaigns of some candidates and I also have others who live and do business in the state currently. Last sunday, during a conversation with my friend, I decided to guage the political temperature through the view of a friend of mine who lives in Onitsha, a friend who is also politically aware. I posed this question to him:"what are the chances of Ngige winning the elections?" He retorted in mixture of English and Igbo saying:" Ndia akuligo the guy"; meaning that these people have destroyed the guy. I decide to inquire further what he meant. He told me that people refer to Ngige's party as a Yoruba party.Here, I will begin my inquisition into the political battle field whose winner would be declared after November 16th 2013, ceteris paribum (all things being equal).

According to INEC, the Nigerian election umpire, as read in the newspapers, there are 23 candidates for this election. However, we can identify four(4) candidates of nearly two dozens who have equal likely probability of succeeding Governor Peter Obi, the incumbent. These four gladiators in order of political weight according to the writers perception are:

1. Senator Chris Ngige - APC
2. Chief Willie Obiano - APGA
3. Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu - PDP
4. Prince Ifeanyi Ubah - Labour Party


Why do I believe that these four have equal chances of occupying Government House, Awka come Nov. 16. The reasons can be attributed to personal influence, popularity, party affiliation, presidential influence, power of incumbency and a few other criterias. However, the focus of this piece is to examine why these quadruplets have equal chances of winning the election. The reasons for their equal chances can be attributed to various shortcomings which have become weakening points in their claims to be the right candidate. In summary, the waning popularity of Ngige because of APC affiliation, Obiano's incumbency syndrome and Fidelity alliance, Ukachukwu's inconclusive party candidature and presidential influence and Ubah's not so clean past are the loopholes. I will start the examination from Ngige.

APC, Ngige and the many political faux pas.

Onwa as he is popularly referred to, would have been the indomitable and all conquering candidate if not for recent events that have made him just one of the contenders instead of the successor of Peter Obi. I was one of those who began to say early that Ngige's membership of CPC from which he won elections to the Senate and subsequently APC which he became a member because of CPC's party merger would jeopardise his candidature for the polls. That being a lesser evil, issues were compounded some months ago when a serving governor embarked on a destructive adventure which became one of the banana peels that sent Ngige reeling to the floor. If I was one of Ngige's strategist, I would have advised my boss not to issue any comment on the deportation of some Igbos which Fashola orchestrated. It would have served Onwa best not to have supported or condemned the action. There are simple rules of thumbs in politics, do not make many enemies especially when you are not yet the prince. Keep silent, don't pit yourself against your people. Flirt with everyone,at least at face value until you achieve your aim. Only Onwa can tell why he defended Fashola, knowing that Lagos State is an emotional issue for Ndi Igbo. They cannot forget in a hurry, how their properties in Port Harcourt were lost after the war and the animosity is still visible. Nobody needs to remind Ngige that Igbos have made huge investments in Lagos state and any act of destabilization cannot be stomached.

Secondly, in a bid to defend Fashola, one wide mouth Femi went ahead to insult the spirit of Gburugburu Igbo, Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu and added salt to the injury, compounding the situation for Ngige. The fact that APC was labelled a Yoruba and anti-Igbo party became a widely held view amongst Igbo people. At this point, convincing an ordinary Anambarian that Ngige meant well became a herculean task. Worthy of note is that Movement for the Actualization of Biafra (MASSOB) is headquartered in Onitsha, therefore arousing the sentiments of people against anything anti-Igbo is very easy. We all remember that most riots protesting killings of Igbos in the North always originate from Onitsha and anything labelled 'north' is put under scrutiny. Even the popular Owelle Rochas , the governor of Imo State, who moved from APGA to APC is gasping for popularity and fast losing the confidence of Imolites. Therefore, it not farfetched to know why suddenly, Ngige has been become one of the four.

Instead of ameliorating the situation, the man Ngige himself decided to exacerbate the situation.News filtered in that Ngige carried out his campaign on the day that the Obi of Onitsha, a learned gentleman,who rose to great heights in the oil and gas industry before taking up the traditional post of the paramount ruler of Onitsha was celebrating the annual Ofala festival. In Onitsha town, no other occasion was supposed to take place on the day of Ofala. This comment I put up on Nairaland on Oct 11, 2013 captures my first take on the issue:

I keep wondering who strategizes for APC. The most rational thing to do as politician, isn't it to move your political machinery to the Obi's Ofala festival and garner some support? Even if not invited, go there and show respect, the Obi is akin to Sultan of Sokoto. Even a simpleton would have thought that out. When Fashola went on with his deportation saga, some of us observed that it will have a negative impact on Ngige and Rochas. Instead of ameliorating the situation and redeeming himself, Ngige is adding salt to injury. Was he contesting popularity with the Obi of Onitsha or what? So he will say that his campaign drew more people than the Ofala? Foolish strategy.

Politics is all about perception, the image you create in people's mind. You can't keep committing political suicide and expect your people to align with you. Only this ignorant act can pitch all the traditional rulers in Anambra against Ngige. The Obi of Onitsha is the highest in hierarchy of traditional rulers in Anambra if not in Igbo land and he can punish Ngige for this insult. All he needs is a palace meeting and several community meetings in one week and Ngige loses half or more of his present supporters, if he has not lost most by now.

I wouldn't bore you my reader with more on that faus pax. Two days ago, a close friend of mine who is a frontline campaigner shared the picture below on facebook. After a close observation, I was of the opinion that he the gods wants to kill, the make go mad.

On closer observation, I was of the opinion, that if Ngige loses the election, he should blame himself. Read my comments on that photo below.

If the inscription I see on that poster is correct, whoever is in Ngige's campaign strategy team needs to be fired. How can Ngige be pitying himself against traditional rulers? Is that why he desecrated the Ofala? If any other candidate liaise with all the traditional rulers in the state and point them to this faus pax, he will never win elections in Anambra State. What's the correlation between 180 SUVs to traditional rulers and the road to government house? What is he trying to insinuate? APC and bad strategies - from deportation to boy Femi insulting the spirit of Ojukwu to Ngige disrespecting Obi of onitsha and this? Now I know why he depended on a godfather to install him the first time. During politicticking, you flirt with everyone, don't alienate people that matter. All the traditional rulers have to do is convey town meetings and Ngige is finished. With all these political blunders, Ngige should only thank his stars because of Obiano's connection to Obi and Fidelity bank, PDP's inconclusive candidature and Ubah's not so clean past. Even at all these, Ngige's negatives outstrips that of other major candidates.

to be continued.

This road looks like the Enugu/Onitsha express way! It is a federal government road.

Besides, if it is the road to the government house, then Obi is a wise man: He built roads to communities and neglected the one t the government house.

Also, Ngige was there for about 3 years! Why didn't he do that road?

If this people do not have any points to campaign with, then too baD.

Well said! The problem with Ngige is that he is DESPERATE to govern Anambra, he so much blvd that he can ride anybody that comes across him. His desperation led him to Uba brothers and now to the wrong party and Godfather(s), same desperation made him to lose his conscience during the deportation saga cos he wants to be in good books for the party's ticket(Annie and Ezemo, was really up against him then), now he has the ticket without the voters which suppose to be his primary aim.