I have been Observing the comments on nairaland between the APC and PDP warlords. The Past is a good prediction of the future. The electoral map as it stands today is not rosy for GEJ but 2015 is far away and a lot can change . I will state my reasons and the factors involved. But i strongly believe that 1 or 2 factors stated below will determine who wins in 2015. In this debate i will try to play the umpire. My analysis is strictly based on the 2011 presidential election result and your opinions are welcome.

1. The merger of APC have caused some hitherto split Votes to Coalesce. GEJ defeated a poorly funded Buhari with just 8 million votes but it will be difficult to repeat that in 2015. In the following states Adamawa,Benue,Kano,Kwara,Lagos,Oyo,Yobe,Zamfara substantial number of votes were split between CPC,ACN and ANPP. Those votes are coming together for APC in 2015.

2. Registered Voters Turnout:The 2015 election may be decided by which party can turn out the largest votes. There was apathy among voters in many states in 2011,many weren't interested in the presidential election. Lagos had 6 million registered voters in 2011 but only 2 million voted. Ogun had the lowest turnout of just 28% with other south west states also showing the poorest turnout. The following states recorded poor registered voters turnout of 50% and below in 2011 Adamawa,Benue,Borno,Ebonyi,Edo,Ekiti,FCT,Kogi,Kwara,Lagos,Nasarawa,Niger,Ogun,Ondo, Osun,Oyo,Sokoto and Yobe. 13 out of these 17 states are sympathetic to the Opposition. This is not good for Jonathan. What if tinubu mobilise 2 million out of the 4 million who didnt vote in 2011 to vote for APC in 2015? The outcome will be better imagined.

3. Rivers State: The state has 2.4 million registered voters which represents the highest number of registered Voters from Jonathan's strong hold of SS and SE. Amaechi and the rivers people delivered 1.8 million votes out of this in 2011,that was the highest Jonathan got from SS/SE. With the current division and unrest in Rivers can Jonathan keep all the 1.8 million votes from 2011? Or Is Amaechi strong enough to pull away about 10 to 25% of that figure? Amaechi needs to be completely silenced for GEJ to repeat such performance here. Hence his recent moves.

4. South South and South East is Overstretched: Jonathan's political base turned out the highest number of voters in 2011,unfortunately he cant increase the numbers of registered voters easily. so there are no massive buffers to make up for any deficit elsewhere. Bayelsa recorded 98% in 2011, most SS and SE states recorded more than 80% voters turnout.

5. New Alliances: Jonathan is forming new political allies for 2015. In lagos you have Bode George, in southwest you have Kashamu, fasheun, MOB in ekiti, you have Mimiko in Ondo , in Kano you have Al mustapha, etc. Are these alliances strong enough to deliver the needed result?How hard these allies can work will determine the votes taken from APC in 2015. Jonathan has been empowering his cabinet ministers in their respective states while trying to destroy the cohesive power of the governors forum,will the ministers and his loyal governors deliver?

6. The People: This is the most important factor. Are voters enthusiastic about GEJ as they were in 2011? If GEJ delivers on his electoral promises and people see major improvements then these permutations may mean nothing. How will voters feel about him in 2015? In 2011 he played an underdog from the minority who is being harassed by the core north,will that work in 2015? The arguement that he must not contest for a 2nd term may win public sympathy again and work in his favor.

7. The Tinubu Factor: Many political observers have stated that Tinubu sold out Ribadu's votes not by rigging but he closed down the ACN campaign and mobilisation for Ribadu at the tail end of 2011. Presently It seems Tinubu also wants to play at the federal level and he will actively campaign for APC in 2015. Dont be fooled to think only voting will count in Nigeria,there is rigging in every region but Its only those who have sufficient local presence that can rig. The PDP in SW at the moment is confused. Tinubu like him or hate him is a master chess player, if he didnt see a clear opportunity to wrestle power from Jonathan in 2015 he will probably still be on Jonathan's side by now.

8. Who APC fields: This will impact the 2015 election. If APC fields a southerner as president then maybe the north would prefer GEJ who needs just 4 years to transfer power back to the North. If APC should attach a strong performer like Fashola to any northerner then GEJ should forget the southwest vote because fashola is genuinely loved by the southwest.

My Verdict: Jonathan needs to sit down and analyse his path to victory critically. The power of incumbency though very real may not be enough in 2015. He should drop any war that wont help his cause. Enough of all the fights and noise from SS,SE ,SW,OBJ etc. The opposition seems to hold some jokers right now and he should be busy planning how to checkmate them. APC can hustle to massively rig Lagos with 6 million voters, Kano with 5 million voters, Katsina with 3 million voters, Kaduna with 3 million voters and the election would be over in few hours. These are my thoughts i welcome yours. May God bless us with the best leader.

[/quote] The opposition seems to hold some jokers right now. APC can decide to massively rig Kano with 5 million voters, Lagos with 6 million,Katsina with 3 million, Kaduna with 3 million and the election would be over in few hours. These are my thoughts i welcome yours [quote]

When it comes to rigging the presidency holds the upper and so don't even go there.who controls the police,army and oversight over INEC?

He cannot never win. It is time we stop minorities from ruling us in this country.

You've made a strong point but i often hear that you can only rig where you are fully on ground and a bit popular. Rigging seems to be more effective at the grassroot .The advanced form of rigging where politicians just use pen to change results seems not to be popular anymore

chukwudi44: The opposition seems to hold some jokers right now. APC can decide to massively rig Kano with 5 million voters, Lagos with 6 million,Katsina with 3 million, Kaduna with 3 million and the election would be over in few hours. These are my thoughts i welcome yours

When it comes to rigging the presidency holds the upper and so don't even go there.who controls the police,army and oversight over INEC?

T-smooth:
He cannot never win. It is time we stop minorities from ruling us in this country.

Lets stop this minority nonsense. All men are equal before God. lets look at this critically that's why i opened the thread. As a matter of fact i would have preferred the major tribes to relinquish political power to the minorities since they don't always agree and keep taking us back. Having a performer is what we should be focused on.

meine: You've made a strong point but i often hear that you can only rig where you are fully on ground and a bit popular. Rigging seems to be more effective at the grassroot .The advanced form of rigging where politicians just use pen to change results seems not to be popular anymore

Bros has an oppostion party ever outrigged a sitting president in this country or even anywhere on this continent? Even if it comes to free and faor election Tinubu cannot determine the direction of lagos votes as alnost half of lagos resident including yours sincerely are not yorubas

chukwudi44:

Bros has an oppostion party ever outrigged a sitting president in this country or even anywhere on this continent? Even if it comes to free and faor election Tinubu cannot determine the direction of lagos votes as alnost half of lagos resident including yours sincerely are not yorubas

where did you get your data about the demographics of lagos? there is no known data thats says one tribe is more than the other in lagos. Please prove me wrong. I still insist the yorubas are more from a cursory look.

meine:

where did you get your data about the demographics of lagos? there is no known data thats says one tribe is more than the other in lagos. Please prove me wrong. I still insist the yorubas are more from a cursory look.

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state.

I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

chukwudi44:

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state.

I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

I still encourage you to back up your argument with raw data,don't just pick figures from the air. According to the 2006 census the most populated LGA's in Lagos are Alimosho 1.2 million, Ajeromi 684,000 and Kosofe 665,000. The South east people and GEJ support base are heavily present in the Ojoo area, Ladipo area among others, While the Hausas and Yorubas dominate Kosofe. For every area where our Igbo brothers dominate ,you also have the hausas dominating some areas.

Alimosho is populated by egbas,ijebus,ijeshas, yoruba tribes who migrated from their states. So there goes your politics of which tribe dominates lagos. Another question is will the Igbos in lagos be motivated enough to troop out for GEJ in 2015? Except Tinubu and his men tell their supporters to back off, i dont see APC loosing lagos to GEJ bro.

chukwudi44:

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state.

I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

I wonder where you and your friends always get these your "percentages" from.

.

chukwudi44:

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state.

I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

your 90% population of Lagos can only count, if we allow you to vote.

Copy that and write it down.

If you want to vote contrary to SW vote, i am assuring you, your best bet will be to do that in Orlu and not on a single soil of SW.

chukwudi44: The opposition seems to hold some jokers right now. APC can decide to massively rig Kano with 5 million voters, Lagos with 6 million,Katsina with 3 million, Kaduna with 3 million and the election would be over in few hours. These are my thoughts i welcome yours

When it comes to rigging the presidency holds the upper and so don't even go there.who controls the police,army and oversight over INEC?

Which presidency? Where was presidency when APGA won anambra election, even when the presidency party was involve. Those that would conduct the election are they not human? You should know the power of the governors by now, it is only the governors that have loyalist down to the wards(councillor) in a local govt. In my home town, when it come to presidential election the local govt chairman and political appoints from my local govt, chiefs and some mushroom politician loyal to the governor, will decide who to give the bloc vote and that is all.
You can take your time to read donald duke statement and know who is in the best position to rig an election on this link

https://www.nairaland.com/1531529/how-rig-electionsuccessfully-nigeria-anambra#19792260

chukwudi44: When it comes to rigging the presidency holds the upper and so don't even go there.who controls the police,army and oversight over INEC?

Hello bro, i also forgot to add that when it comes to using the police and army to harass voters and rig elections. You can only do that in the South West, south east,south south and north central. Dont dare our brothers in the NE/NW . We know those who own violence in their pocket. And never trust the security agents in the North to rig for a southerner,they hardly sell out their people like southerners.

Election that you havent conducted and someone already said baboon will spill dog bloods or what have you. Tell GEJ to find a diplomatic way to reach them,he shouldnt try to threaten them abeg. You will just see people volunteering to die so they can claim virgins in heaven

With PDP ticket already in the bag for GEJ, 2015 presidential elections has already been won and lost. It is a settled matter and the president and his team know it.

You'v only seen governors that defected from the PDP, wait until you see those who will flock into the PDP.

The challenge for the President and the PDP will be in the NASS- how to emerge from the 2015 elections still maintaining majority.

Meanwhile, you guys easily forget that the name APC is still under litigation. So last minute judicial earthquake on APC cannot be ruled out. All it will take will be judicial pronouncement from a high court judge at the 11th hour.

Also not all yorubas are Tinubu slaves. A significant percentage of yorubas would rather die than worship Tinubu

superstar1:

your 90% population of Lagos can only count, if we allow you to vote.

Copy that and write it down.

If you want to vote contrary to SW vote, i am assuring you, your best bet will be to do that in Orlu and not on a single soil of SW.

Leave those flat head villagers alone - do they even know the number of Yorubas from other SW states that have migrated to Lagos? They keep talking about Lagos indigines. The number of Yorubas from other Yoruba states in Lagos is more than 100 times the number of the real indigines of Lagos. The fact that they are not loud mouths doesn't meant they are not there.

On the day of election, I am waiting to see flat heads troop out to vote against the interest of SW... They will learn in a very hash way again.

Sincere 9gerian: With PDP ticket already in the bag for GEJ, 2015 presidential elections has already been won and lost. It is a settled matter and the president and his team know it.

You'v only seen governors that defected from the PDP, wait until you see those who will flock into the PDP.

The challenge for the President and the PDP will be in the NASS- how to emerge from the 2015 elections still maintaining majority.

Meanwhile, you guys easily forget that the name APC is still under litigation. So last minute judicial earthquake on APC cannot be ruled out. All it will take will be judicial pronouncement from a high court judge at the 11th hour.

Also not all yorubas are Tinubu slaves. A significant percentage of yorubas would rather die than worship Tinubu

Bro i believe taking the PDP ticket is important for Jonathan's victory. But dont go near the APC name being disallowed. This may be the key to APC victory,all they need to do is find another name and whip up sentiments and sympathy among the populace.

As regards calling Yoruba Tinubu's slaves thats an error. I have been following the Yoruba political history for a long time,they are one of the most sophisticated and balanced voters in Nigeria. These new sets of performing APC governors are the real cover for Tinubu,trust me the day they start misbehaving the yorubas will give their votes to other parties. But for now APC owns the south west and i see them using it effectively. Even those who arent Tinubu's slaves as you argue has Jonathan done anything to endear himself to them? GEJ needs to re strategise quickly.

2015 is not all about Jonathan but about the fight to forcefully prevent the control and wrecking of Nigeria by unpatriotic alliance that has ruled Nigeria since july 1966.

A view from the map below shows an unwritten alliance between the South West and the Core north to wrest power using APC, but another resistance by the Christian Middle Belt , Niger Delta and South East.

In the Event of Jonathan loosing the political battle there could be war and in the event of Jonathan winning the Political battle there could equally be war which ever way a second Nigerian Civil war is starring Nigeria in the Face , this is what i call Civil war 2.0

The struggle for 2015 is all about the National Census which would hold in 2015 and the Census has direct bearing on the revenue allocation , delineation of voters ward number of house of representative members , the Oil re licensing which would hold in 2016 equally and the consolidation of economic hold on the country

kettykin: 2015 is not all about Jonathan but about the fight to forcefully prevent the control and wrecking of Nigeria by unpatriotic alliance that has ruled Nigeria since july 1966.

A view from the map below shows an unwritten alliance between the South West and the Core north to wrest power using APC, but another resistance by the Christian Middle Belt , Niger Delta and South East.

In the Event of Jonathan loosing the political battle there could be war and in the event of Jonathan winning the Political battle there could equally be war which ever way a second Nigerian Civil war is starring Nigeria in the Face , this is what i call Civil war 2.0

The struggle for 2015 is all about the National Census which would hold in 2015 and the Census has direct bearing on the revenue allocation , delineation of voters ward number of house of representative members , the Oil re licensing which would hold in 2016 equally and the consolidation of economic hold on the country

People should stop talking about war as if its just a childs play. If war starts right now will you Mr Kettykin pick up a gun and fight. The presidential seat that doesn't bring economic,social and political reprieve to the masses is not worth dying over. Even if APC is colliding with the North to rule,has GEJ and his handlers helped his matters?

And how is Nasarawa PDP? The last time I checked, Al Makura is in APC and won governoship on the platform of CPC.

You spoke about Christian Middle Belt. If war ensures, are also expecting the so called xtian middle belt to take up arms against the majority muslims in the north and fight along side Ijaws/ibos? I keep laughing each time we talk about building the country and some imbes are talking about religion, ethnicity, etc.

T-smooth:
He cannot never win. It is time we stop minorities from ruling us in this country.

it is time minorities spill this country for a fool like u to eat your useless population or figure

T-smooth:
He cannot never win. It is time we stop minorities from ruling us in this country.

i dont like Gej at all but. You are stupid 4 this post of yours

jjcbuthot: And how is Nasarawa PDP? The last time I checked, Al Makura is in APC and won governoship on the platform of CPC.

You spoke about Christian Middle Belt. If war ensures, are also expecting the so called xtian middle belt to take up arms against the majority muslims in the north and fight along side Ijaws/ibos? I keep laughing each time we talk about building the country and some imbes are talking about religion, ethnicity, etc.

Forget all these permutations of war . There can never be war in Nigeria. The Aristocrats prefer the Nigerian status quo and they can be found in every tribe. These are the real power brokers that people on nairaland fail to address. The likes of Tinubu,Dangote,Adenuga,Maduka,Elumelu, Ovia,IBB, Danjuma, Anenih,Orji kalu,Oyedepo,Sultan of Sokoto,Ooni of ife and many more who have profited from the awkward Nigerian system. These guys will lobby behind your back and spend their last dime to ensure Nigeria doesnt break. We could have parted after the 1993 fiasco but what happened, IBB met OBJ and struck a deal and the rest is history. As far as i am concerned i only see 2 tribes, The aristocrats vs the masses. But if God uses GEJ to split us peacefully so be it.

For the avoidance of doubt no body prays for war but what would you call an escalation of what is going on in the North East or what happened in the creeks before Amnesty was giving to the new lords of Niger Delta, how would you describe the callous madness going on in the Plateau, Southern Kaduna , Benue Area.

What would happen if Jonathan looses and the Niger Delta militants order all hausa /fulani indigenes and muslims out of Niger delta with a house to house search and a complete brutalisation of those caught.
If the Results of the election show Jonathan has won , we might be witnessing renewed insurgency in the North and renewal of violence which would be followed up with retaliations across the country .

Again the last straw would be when violence is allowed to be fomented in Lagos or Abuja and people of opposing views are allowed to be visited with arson, violence and destruction of their businesses or homes.

The result of the Census which every body can predict is another issue which can also trigger big upheavals which ever way one looks at it Nigeria is going to under go grand changes either before the election during the national conference or after the election during census. , these 2 changes will determine what becomes of Nigeria

^^^
Seriously i can tell you that most Nigerians are fed up with the bloodshed. They would rather part peacefully.

chukwudi44:

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state
I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

You assume the ignore factor in Lagos have not been prepared for when that time comes.Effective strategy is in place to take care of that.It will be a shocker for the pdp even in delta state.

chukwudi44:

Bros I live in lagos and I can categorically tell you that Yorubas are not up to 55% of lagos population.

The mistake people make is to keep counting state populations as if everyone there is going to vote for one party.lagos is the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria and has far more non-indigenes than any other state
I can bet you that GEj would not get anything less than 45% of the votes cast in lagos in 2015.

You assume the igbo factor in Lagos have not been prepared for when that time comes.Effective strategy is in place to take care of that.It will be a shocker for the pdp even in delta state.

Origami III:

You assume the igbo factor in Lagos have not been prepared for when that time comes.Effective strategy is in place to take care of that.It will be a shocker for the pdp even in delta state.

That's thesame point I have been making. Will the population of Igbos in lagos be sufficient to win lagos for GEJ? I pray this politics of downplaying the yoruba vote doesn't backfire?

meine:

That's thesame point I have been making. Will the population of Igbos in lagos be sufficient to win lagos for GEJ? I pray this politics of downplaying the yoruba vote doesn't backfire?

I never said only igbos in lagos will vote in jonathan.even some yorubas will also do.I only said that lagos is too cosmopolitan to be classified under yoruba block votes.Even SS/and MB also have high populations and most of them would not vote APC

here we are 2015 elections is 7 days away