Going by the statistics released to journalists yesterday in Abuja by the World Bank, only 55.9 million Nigerians (about 33.1 per cent of the country's population put at 169 million) are living below the acceptable poverty level, a significant improvement from the figure released last February by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which put the poverty level at 112.519 million (62.6 per cent). The World Bank also predicted a 7.4 per cent growth rate in the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The World Bank attributed the improvement in the poverty statistics to the positive economic trend as well as significant progress made towards poverty eradication in the country by the government. The poverty figure by the World Bank was drawn from its 2012/2013 poverty estimates while the one by the NBS was from the 2009/2010 estimates.

But in Abuja yesterday, the Central Bank of Nigeria expressed concern that the possibility of increased government spending in the run up to the 2015 elections may drive up the liquidity in the system which could push upward the inflation figure, a condition which may force people to spend more money to buy less goods.

The World Bank said, in its second edition of the Nigeria Economic Report (NER) which was launched in Abuja that going by the recent rebasing of the economy as well as analysis from the new General Household Surveys (GHS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) with the support of the Bank, new poverty estimates in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 should be within the range of 35.2 per cent and 33.1 per cent respectively.

Although the previous NBS Harmonised Nigeria Living Standards Survey (HNLSS) 2009/2010, which took a larger study sample into account had estimated poverty rate at 62.6 percent, the Breton woods institution said it had strong reasons to believe that "consumption was seriously underestimated in the large HNLSS household survey in 2009/2010."

It stated that an analysis of a panel survey data (GHS) of 5000 households for 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 provided "evidence that consumption is likely higher than previously estimated from the HNLSS survey."

Furthermore, the new GHS analysis put rural poverty at 46.3 per cent and 44.9 per cent in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 respectively compared to 69.1 per cent and 51.2 per cent respectively in the HNLSS 2009/2010 estimates by the NBS.
The World Bank estimates further suggested that the number of poor Nigerians remained at 58 million adding that more than half of the figure are located in the North- east or North-west.

Specifically, it noted:" Poverty rates range from 16 per cent in the South- West to 52 per cent in the North-east. While the South and North central experienced declines in the poverty rate between 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, the poverty rate increased almost unchanged in the North West."

The NBS had since placed a temporary suspension on publishing unemployment statistics pending the adoption of a new methodology, it was gathered.

The Bank also said an unofficial assessments using accepted International Labour Organisation (ILO) methodologies would suggest that the unemployment rate in Nigeria is less than 10 per cent compared to the 25 percent figure by the NBS.

"This masks the critical problem in Nigeria of underemployment. Most Nigerians cannot afford not to work, but a large share of the population is engaged in low productivity and low paying tasks."

The report said the rebase GDP figure has again drawn attention to official poverty statistics wondering how a country of the size and wealth of Nigeria could have such high poverty rates even relative to neighbouring countries including Niger and Benin Republic- and why the strong economic growth experienced for more than a decade had not generated more poverty reduction.
However, in its short- term economic outlook, it said it expected the Nigerian economy to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2014 "despite significant risks related to oil and potential volatility in short term capital flows."

Speaking at the launch, Lead Economist and Acting Country Manager of the World Bank, John Litwack said: "The combination of the new GDP and poverty estimates is valuable in giving us what we believe to be a clearer picture of development and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Both sets of numbers indicate the prime importance of urban areas for growth and poverty reduction.”

Continuing, he said: "The poverty disparities between the North and South echo disparities in public services as well as the degree of connectedness to large markets."
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/only-a-third-of-nigerians-are-poor-says-world-bank/184323/

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