An American friend asked me a simple question today: will the Boko-Haram insurgency end? Of course as a patriotic Nigerian and a concerned citizen I answered in the affirmative. However, as I sat back thinking about the insurgency I asked myself the same question again. Funny enough, I still answered in the affirmative. However, given the fact that Bokoharam is waxing stronger by the day, I asked another question – can the Nigerian state end the Bokoharam insurgency?- of course we can. But will we? Most certainly. But when and at what cost? That is what I don't know. In other to answer this, we probably have to examine the players involved in this deadly game.

The Nigerian Government
that the Nigerian government lacks the political will to tackle boko haram is no news due to its corrupt nature. I know what you are thinking: GEJ and his cronies. Don't blame the man, he didn't start the trend and its far to entrenched to stop by this man even if he spends 8 years. The most despised Nigerian leader, General Sani Abacha, met the Nigerian state in a state of economic miasma and ignominy orchestrated by his predecessors. Despite sanctions from the West, especially the UN and NATO countries, this man left Nigeria better than he met it. Inflation and unemployment rate were lesser than 9% after inheriting it at more than 50%. he improved our foreign reserves from $494m to $9.6b while he reduced our external debt by $9bn during the same period and the price of crude oil was just $15 per barrel. In the first year of democracy inflation and unemployment jumped to double figures and it has been rising since then(unemployment is 24% as at December 2013). if after ''looting the treasury dry'' Abacha was able to achieve such feat, we have to ask ourselves why. The answer is not quite far-fetched. Because he his a dictator, he answers to know one and enjoys security of tenure. And because he understand the concept of force and he used it extensively. The world called it human rights violations, but it got things done. And therein lies the problem of our government. They are busy trying to keep themselves in power and consider the citizens expedient. That is why GEJ will not crack down on Bokoharam until 2015. its just politics. What he need is force but if he uses it, he will be labelled a human right violator and probably voted out. So he keeps mum, continue to line the pocket of the northerners who probably in turn use such funds to finance Bokoharam . The Nigerian government lacks a viable solution to the insurgency be it force or political and has adopted a wait and see strategy until 2015 before formulating one.

The Nigerian Military
labelled as one of the best ground fighting force in the world, this obsolete army, a veteran of several UN and AU peacekeeping mission and made up of fearless men and women, is definitely not up to the task of fighting Bokoharam . The problem is three-fold: administration, training and materiel.
To begin with, the NA has a pre insurgency budget of less than 200bn Naira, it now receives over 1.2tn naira supposedly to acquire equipment to combat Bokoharam . However, all we hear is that they are going to buy top of the line planes, guns and hardware but till date soldiers still complain of lack of footwear, bullets and logistics and air cover support. But why will the NA not provide what their soldiers need? Because they have seen an upsurge in the amount of funds available for embezzlement and ending the bokoharam -ish will return them to the status quo ante, which they don't want. Boko haram is the goose that lays the golden egg, they cant afford to have it killed.
I said earlier that the NA is reputed to be one of the best land fighting force in the world. While this may have once been true in the past, it definitely is not now. Yes, men of the Nigerian army are selfless and courageous but that doesn't mean they are suicidal. When you face a tank or armoured carrier with an AK-47 with less than 30 bullets and no spare magazine because your bosses haven't provided any, it is not going to be difficult to get disoriented and find yourself in another country. The NA considers a 1960 Zeus a modern gun( why they need an anti-aircraft weapon is beyond me). It has no planes or viable copters that can provide air cover to foot soldiers or launch precision weapons to demoralise the insurgents. While countries like Libya, Egypt, and the likes can boast of Mig-29, Mig-35, Su-30SMK and other top of the line Russian hardwares, Nigeria is still looking up to America for weapons she wont sell it while relying on obsolete jaguars and chinese planes they are ill-trained to fly and ill-suited for their missions.
To compound its problem, it is fighting something it is ill trained to combat: asymmetrical warfare in an urban setting. The insurgents can shoot anyhow, the soldiers have to minimise collateral damage else human rights organisation gets on their case. Coupled with the lack of equipment training in such warfare techniques and the activities of saboteurs, they are fighting a loosing war.

The Nigerian Intelligence community
the Nigerian intelligence community is anything but intelligent. The SSS and DIA that have the primary responsibility of providing intelligence support to the NA is doing everything but that. given the affluence in which they keep their officers, it is quite apparent that they use most of their classified budgets for just that. the world has moved from combating insurgency with force to preventing its occurrence. This is entrenched in the age-old quest for security that had man building moats and long walls, radar coverage like DEWS and AA/AD capabilities. However, despite the advancement in technology that has seen the introduction of precision weapons, stealth planes, hypersonic ballistic and cruise missiles, force projection platforms(blue water capabilities: aircraft carriers) etc., they can only be employed effectively in a non-guerilla warfare and then still carries the implication of collateral damages. When there is asymmetry, they become almost redundant. Sophisticated weapons don't win guerilla wars, intelligence does. That is why USSR failed in Afghanistan and USA failed in Vietnam after several years of fighting. To effectively combat this kind of war requires the efficient usage of of ELINT and HUMINT resources. that is why most countries spend heavily on such agencies(FBI, HOMELAND, FSB, MI5 etc.). But if you ask me what ELINT capabilities the SSS and DIA have, I will say I don't know, but its probably close to nil. When the US was attacked by al-Qaeda in 2001, they created Homeland services to prevent such re-occurrences. Our intelligence services only takes the protection of politicians seriously while the common man die in thousands. Else, why haven't been able to trace the source of bokoharam's funding and stifle it? Why haven't they been able to trace their source of weapon, materiel and intelligence and stifle it? The NA complains of internal saboteurs but why do they pay internal affairs people and DIA if they haven't been able to catch just ONE saboteur?

The Nigerian People
it is very easy to blame others for one's problem but the fact remains that the Nigerian man is responsible for his problems. He refuses to vote and when he does, its because somebody offered him a pittance for his vote. He refuses to supply info to security agencies because he is afraid of reprisals and/or afraid of the security agency itself(the NPF comes to mind). Some even collude with the insurgents to deter the activities of their would-be liberators because they have been brainwashed and radicalised. This is not only in the north. The Nigerian man is easy to brainwash and the best platform to achieve that is religion or monetary inducement that is while some people pay money they don't have to keep their religious leaders in affluence.. some cant do anything tangible without taking the permission of their religious leader. Some men have so much influence that they can command to commit atrocities and their congregation wont question the order. Until the Nigerian man wakes up, he will always be with his problems
The International community
don't be fooled, the solution to Nigeria's problem doesn't lie with the West. They are probably going to prefer it is protracted. It limits Nigeria's ability to project its influence and ultimately become a regional power that can counter American influence. They probably want us to disintegrate. That is why they have refused to sell us weapons we need to combat the insurgency by hiding under human rights violations skirt. Yet they are calling on us to end the insurgency. With stick and stones?. And they are continuously dissuading us from buying weapon system from Russia or China so that we may still remain in their sphere of influence by dangling the monetary carrot in front of us. They own the IBRD and IMF which we owe substantial amounts and still needs more from, so why ask them for a help that will never come?
Lastly, I wont make recommendations other than to say that we all collectively tackle the issues highlighted. There are probably more but we gotta start somewhere.

....