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Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by explorer250(m): 6:42pm On Oct 06, 2014 |
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A MERE ACT OF IMAGINATION AND CANNOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO REALITY(even if it can happen na 200 years to come) To illustrate a future war with a niche competitor, imagine the following hypothetical scenario. Nigeria attacks Zaire with 10 armored divisions (including 5,000 armored vehicles). Nigeria's operational goal is to capture Kinshasa, thereby cutting Zaire's access to the Atlantic. Drawing on its oil wealth, Nigeria has built a substantial military. In addition to the ground attacking force, Nigeria's military consists of:* 200 fighter aircraft (half are front line: MiG-29, Rafael, Su-35), equipped with advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) and precision ground-attack munitions, Five nuclear weapons (100 kilotons), and 100 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) with a range of 1,000 NM and CEP of more than 500 meters. *Such a force is notional; it bears no relation to current Nigerian inventories. In total numbers it's similar to the force structure used by RAND in The New Calculus, 16. Also, Nigeria has integrated three emerging weapons into its military. First, it uses COMSATs (commercial satellites) for photo reconnaissance and communications. These satellites are majority-owned by the European Community, the Arab League, and an Asian business consortium. Nigeria is a minority owner of each system. All refused US requests to shut down Nigerian access. These satellites allow encrypted communications throughout Africa. They also provide imagery directly to mobile ground stations in Nigeria and with the attacking columns. This imagery has one-meter resolution. In addition, the Nigerians have two backup ground stations in sympathetic third countries. These facilities are connected to Nigeria by fiber-optic cable. Second, Nigeria has stealthy cruise missiles (purchased from Israel, Brazil, and France with these capabilities: Inventory: 5,000, with 100 mobile launchers. Guidance: Integrated GPS/INS en route; terminal guidance uses millimeter wave seeker, infrared, or antiradiation. CEP is <5 meters. Range: 1,000 NM. Warhead: 1,000-pound conventional warhead, cluster bomb unit (CBU), zirconium disk, napalm, infrared cameras with data burst transmitters, multichannel jammers, decoys, HPM, MHD, or EMP. RCS <.001 (frontal aspect only). Third, Nigeria bought five ASATs from Russia. The ASATs launch from Su-35s. They are kinetic kill with IR sensors. These ASATs can only reach satellites in low earth orbit. Zairian forces are moving to reinforce Kinshasa but are considered far inferior to the Nigerian military. Countries between Nigeria and Zaire (Cameroon, Gabon, and Congo) either ally with Nigeria or give Nigerian forces free passage. The US decides to unilaterally enter the conflict on Zaire's side.* The president orders the US military to assist Zaire's army in halting the Nigerian advance north of the Congo River. Figure 10. Map of Africa *This is only an illustrative scenario. The specific reason for intervening is not important for scenario purposes. What is important is to outline a contingency where the niche enemy is superior to its regional opponent. Also, the fight is thousands of miles from US territory and there's little in- place US military infrastructure. The theater CINC levies the following specific aerospace taskings: Establish air supremacy over US forces. Establish air superiority over Zaire and the Nigerian LOCs. Airlift US units to the theater. Attack Nigerian military forces south of the Nigerian border. Provide near-real-time information on Nigerian military movements to Zaire. Assuming this war starts in summer, weather is not much of a factor. Throughout the year, ceilings are above 3,000 feet more than half the time. The rainy season around Kinshasa is early winter, especially November and December. Precipitation in July and August is practically zero. Temperatures are always above freezing. Table 6 Kinshasa Weather (Ceilings in Percent) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ceilings <3,000´ 22 19 19 19 25 49 40 45 33 30 16 16 Ceilings <1,000´ 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - Inches Precipitation 5.0 5.6 6.7 8.4 5.4 .2 .1 .1 1.3 5.5 9.3 6.7 Source: USAFETAC/DOO (Now AFCCC) The US begins deploying two armored divisions and 10 fighter squadrons, with their associated C4I, into Zaire and southwestern Congo. One ARG and two carrier battle groups position themselves off the coast of Gabon. Defensive systems against cruise and ballistic missiles deploy with these forces. Batteries position around the land bases. Improved AEGIS-type ships escort the battle groups. Both rely on airborne aircraft equipped with long-wavelength radars for missile detection and cueing. Surface radars guide the actual intercepts. One week after deployment begins, Nigeria launches 200 stealthy cruise missiles with CBU (plus four with electronic decoy packages and four with jammers) against the Brazzaville and Kinshasa airports. They overwhelm the limited number of fully operational air defense batteries.* In addition, some of the intercepts are hampered by software shortfalls; the Nigerian cruise missiles present slightly different signatures from those expected. The simultaneous arrival of three tactical ballistic missiles further confuses the defenses. As a result, half the cruise missiles penetrate. Multiple AWACS, J-STARS, KC-10s, and B-747s are destroyed on the ramp. A large tent city is heavily damaged. US casualties are high. Television crews transmit pictures of Zairian soldiers looting the bodies of dead Americans. Stealthy cruise missiles also cripple three USN ships off the West African coast and one RO/RO supply ship at Kinshasa harbor. *For example, a single Patriot battalion is normally equipped with six batteries, each of which can fire up to eight missiles before reloading (total: 48 missiles). In the wake of this disaster, public support for intervention polarizes in the US. The president reaffirms the US commitment, but replaces the theater CINC and requests a new strategy. Planning is constrained by basing restrictions. All countries within 1,000 NM of the AOR refuse US overflight and basing requests. The US must rely on Ascension Island (United Kingdom), Azores (Portugal), Canary Islands (Spain), South Africa, Kenya, and Zaire for land bases. Bases in the CONUS, Europe, South America, and at Diego Garcia are also available. US Aerospace CONOPS In this scenario, a hypothetical enemy (Nigeria) launches a land invasion of a nation 700 NM to its south (Zaire). This operation is a land force-intensive attack, with 10 divisions of armor and infantry.* Its size and capability far outmatch the defending (Zairian) army. To protect US interests in the region, the president orders the US military to assist Zaire. The military task is to stop the Nigerian advance short of the Congo River. *Current demographic projections estimate Nigeria's 2010 population at 240 million. Anticipating American intervention, Nigeria bought high-technology weapons. It has stealthy cruise missiles with 1,000 NM range, access to civilian satellite information and communications, and a robust air defense system (radars, fusion centers, surface-to-air missiles, and manned interceptors). PLEASE NAIRALANDERS CAN THIS EVER HAPPEN? lolz 2 Likes
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Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by hunter21(m): 11:49pm On Oct 06, 2014 |
i swear i love your imagination 3 Likes |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by overhypedsteve(m): 2:21am On Oct 07, 2014 |
Please promise me you will never contest in a nigerian presidential election 2 Likes |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by anisylva(m): 11:36am On Apr 26, 2015 |
i have so many things to say i swear i dont even know where to start...e be like say you get beaf with Zaire people o...besides, that mix of aircraft would be very difficult to obtain because of international politics and i personally wouldnt want nigeria to buy the mig29 - what happened to the sukhoi 34 and 35s?...nice dream though |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by segxi1960: 11:40am On Apr 26, 2015 |
WW X ? |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by Metrofox(m): 12:25pm On Apr 26, 2015 |
that's a lovely analysis there, one would think you had intelligence or military training.... |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by dayoade2007(m): 10:35pm On Apr 26, 2015 |
if possible, write up a novel. 1 Like |
Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by Nobody: 9:11pm On May 26, 2015 |
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Re: Please Can This Ever Be A Reality In The Nigerian Military Strength? by segxi1960: 7:31am On May 27, 2015 |
Metrofox:He probably did. |
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