As Nigerians going into the 2015 elections, are we asking the right QUESTIONS? Are we demanding appropriate accountability from past and current leaders commensurate with the quantum of resources at their disposal? I dug out some numbers recently to do a more representative (apple-to-apple) analysis of the performance of past and present Nigerian administrations. My data sources are (1) The Nigerian Central Bank, (2) the US EAI, (3) OPEC and (4) Other online data sources. Take a close at the charts I generated from the data (there are 5 charts) and let's start demanding real answers!

In just 5 years, Jonathan's administration has generated as much crude oil sales as all 16 years of Yaradua, Obasanjo, Abdusalami and Abacha's administrations combined (16 years combined) in unadjusted numbers. This comes to $470B vs $489B in unadjusted numbers or $488.8B vs $594B after adjustment for inflation.

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Just how much crude was unaccounted for during those dark years? How could the billions of dollars repatriated to Nigeria as proceeds of corruption come about? The metering company at d terminal would be ordered to dish out random figures and Nigerians readily run along with dat. Think ppl Think...

Na wah o! Jona.................. eh, eh, eh, there is God o!!

...waiting for the e warriors to come n discredit this, cos as usually the will choose to never see anything good in this administration

well no much talk


GEJ TILL 2019

WE WILL SHAME APC AND CO AT POLL

that is to show u hw transparent this administration is compared to the previous admins combine 2gether.

Seun put this on front page please!

What was your minimum wage during Abacha? What was our population then? What was government spending then and now?. How much was allocated to states then and now?
It is just like comparing how much Fashola gets for Lagos now and what the Marwa had without factoring many other things.

What was the value of the Naira then? How much has the dollar risen and fallen since then? For instance, if you go by the value of dollar, you will find that the $2.8billion Buhari looted in 1978 as NNPC boss is over N2trillion today.

It is mischief to use the nominal value of money to make such comparisms. It is only the mentally lazy that will buy this very unintelligent analysis.

Yes...we are generating oil revenue, but consider these points.

1.The population of Nigeria is also growing..so more people means that every Nigerian gets a declining share of the oil pot.

2.In an industrial society, money is earned by encouraging the growth of industries. So, you heavily invest in rail, road, power and education so that you attract industries, and then they pay you hefty taxes, which you use to improve infrastructure, which then attracts more industries...

But in an oil rich economy.....you share the money,and then you use it to import and import...stifling local industries.Jobs are not created...leading to loss of revenue and lots of unemployed.

3.Corruption is worse in an oil rich economy because the government exists to share the oil money....not to generate money.The closer you are to government, the closer you are to sharing the money(That is why we have all this Hausas vs Igbos vs Yorubas VS Ijaws vs etc nonsense...and even the Civil War and the religious issues)

The problem in Nigeria is not the amount of oilmoney we earn(which is not enough, as I have already alluded to in point 1) , but the fact that we are so dependent on oil, that we use it as a substitute for development. We spend the oil money on importing things that we should be manufacturing. In the 70's, we were spending it on infrastructure support...until we got the idea that we should over-import.

To sum up...as this article published 10 years ago puts it...MANAGING THE DUTCH DISEASE IN NIGERIA

[b]Where crude oil (and gas) is the booming export sector, the non-oil export sector may be crowded out by the oil sector and the non-tradable goods sector of the economy. This can happen when the oil revenue windfall increases domestic demand for non-tradable goods and pushes up domestic prices leading to an appreciation of the real exchange rate which in turn reduces the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector. This will in turn lead to a reduction in non-oil exports in both quantum and value terms. The oil windfall may also lead to movement of the factors of production in the economy. For instance, capital and labor (and land) may shift from the non-oil export sector to the oil sector (in order to maintain or increase reserves and production) and the non-tradable goods sector (to take advantage of the growing domestic demand). This explains why the increase in oil prices and the subsequent oil revenue windfall in many oil-exporting countries have tended to depress their non-oil export sector while at the same time generating a boom in both the oil and the non-tradable goods sectors. With capital and labor shifting from the non-oil export sector to the oil-sector and non-traded goods sector, firms in the non-oil export sector are forced to either close down or reduce their scale of operation. The boom in the oil and non-traded goods sector increases the demand for imported goods. This may not be a problem in the short-term so long as the country has enough foreign exchange to pay for the imports. The depression in the non-oil export sector and the boom in the other two sectors have medium to long term implications for the economy because the oil windfall will not be permanent given the volatility, unpredictability and exhaustibility of crude oil. For instance, if there is a decline in oil prices and oil revenue, the lagging and collapsing non-oil export sector will not be able to compensate for the drop in oil revenue while domestic demand for the non-traded goods and imports remain sticky. Consequently, the country will be forced to borrow from the international financial market to compensate for the decline in oil revenue. Over time, external debts will increase and so will the debt service obligations. Even when oil prices go up later and there is another round of oil windfall, it is difficult to correct the earlier damage or distortions created by the initial or previous oil windfall. In some cases, the oil exporting country may be forced to adopt some form of structural adjustment program (SAP) to correct such distortions or imbalances. Some of these SAPs are painful and may increase the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty. [/b]

Whoever is in charge in 2015....Goodluck, Buhari , or the hawker of groundnuts on your street......we must get off oil

Oil is a curse.

I write this because of millions of Nigerians who are below 30 and who constitute a significant chunk of our voting population.

This is the ICT generation that is largely ignorant about the events of the Buhari era (1983-85) and so can be misinformed and misled by needless propaganda. I have sat with many in the under-30 bracket and those slightly above who only have faint recollections of the Buhari era and the level of ignorance about that era is amazing.

Before being MILITARY Head of State, Buhari had been Governor of one of the Northern States (under Obasanjo’s Military government) as well as Minister for Petroleum. He later served as Chairman of PTF under Abacha. Please consider the following unassailable facts:

- He birthed and supervised the establishment of our existing refineries.

- There was no religious crisis while he was Head of State. It started under his successor IBB!

- In his time as Head of State he reduced inflation from 23% to 4%, by fiscal discipline and a homegrown economic team (not achieved under any other era, even military).

- JJ Rawlings of Ghana took over 2 years before him, and killed all the corrupt leaders, while Buhari only sentenced the corrupt leaders here to prison.

- Under his watch as PTF Chairman, what he did in road construction in that short period hasn't been matched by 12 years of the PDP.

- Hospitals and universities around the country never witnessed as much benefits as they got from the PTF from any government after or before his time.

- Despite serving in senior capacity in the oil sector, first as Minister for Petroleum and then Petroleum Trust Fund, Buhari has no petrol station,much less a rig, refinery or an oil block like so many of our leaders.

- He could have retired into nauseating opulence like an IBB or Danjuma or even OBJ but didn't.

- Instead of hobnobbing with the high and mighty, he has cast his lot with the ordinary man most of who follow him out of hope and belief in his values.People who know him have said of him... "All I need from Buhari is his word, I can take it to the bank".

- He is the only politician in the North today who fills rallies without renting a crowd. The Kaduna rally of 2nd March is eloquent proof.

- He refused to collect an allowance while serving as Chairman of the PTF because he said since he was already drawing a pension from government, his conscience would not allow him to draw another salary from the purse of the same government.

- He is the only former head of state that does not own property or land in Abuja.

- Every attempt to rubbish him through probes in time past ended up vindicating him! The man who was asked by OBJ to take over the running of PTF before it was scrapped with the aim of probing and indicting Buhari, was the one who ended up being prosecuted
for misappropriating $100m of PTF funds! Buhari again, was vindicated

- He has OPENLY challenged those who accuse him of religious fundamentalism to come out and show proof. No one has till today, taken up the challenge.His personal driver of many years is a Christian from Plateau State.

- His government initiated the War Against Indiscipline that has made environmental cleanliness, queuing up, not urinating by the roadside etc features of our national life even till today Does it then surprise you why corrupt people would be spreading such heinous rumors about Buhari?

He is a threat to them and they know what he is capable of doing to corruption and corrupt people when he comes into office! So shine your eyes and make the right decision. If honesty and probity are the things you want for Nigeria ,now is the time to choose right. When you cast your vote for the BUHARI, you would have cast one vote for a honest men.

Now that you know better, will you please educate another person BY FORWARDING THIS TO AS MANY AS YOU CAN? THIS IS MORE THAN A CAMPAIGN.IT'S JUST THE TRUTH!!!

Kudos to the Yaradua/Jonathan's administration for the Niger Delta Militant amnesty deal.

And yet, we are broke!

Is that not it?

He generated it into his and his cohort's pockets because there are no real infrastructural development!

He is the only president who him and his ministers are preaching that the country is broke!

Shame on u..

To arrive at these numbers, I took average monthly production (pretty fine data resolution) and calculated how much dollars volumes we sold each year. For adjustment for inflation, I used 2.5% annual $ inflation rate. To put inflation adjustment in perspective, $1.00 in 1999 is equivalent to $1.44 in 2014. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers are $488.8B vs. $594B for Jonathan vs. Yaradua+Obj+Abdusalami+Abacha combined. The numbers are what they are because oil price has risen almost 7-8 folds during this period, nearly an order of magnitude increase. In addition to price increase, Nigeria's crude oil output has also increased. I am hoping we can start asking tough questions, we'd continue to be hoodwinked. My question again is simple: even with 2.5% annual inflation adjustment, the numbers are $488.8b vs $594b. Does the investment in Nigeria in the past 5 years add up to ~$500B?

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Anyway, his credibility is not even the problem here, to be honest. Buhari may or may not perform, but as a youth personally, I am tired of seeing the same recycled faces as leaders. This is a country of over one hundred million people, why can't others lead the country as well?

#teamgivenewfacesachance

Nicklee:
To arrive at these numbers, I took average monthly production (pretty fine data resolution) and calculated how much dollars volumes we sold each year. For adjustment for inflation, I used 2.5% annual $ inflation rate. To put inflation adjustment in perspective, $1.00 in 1999 is equivalent to $1.44 in 2014. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers are $488.8B vs. $594B for Jonathan vs. Yaradua+Obj+Abdusalami+Abacha combined. The numbers are what they are because oil price has risen almost 7-8 folds during this period, nearly an order of magnitude increase. In addition to price increase, Nigeria's crude oil output has also increased. I am hoping we can start asking tough questions, we'd continue to be hoodwinked. My question again is simple: even with 2.5% annual inflation adjustment, the numbers are $488.8b vs $594b. Does the investment in Nigeria in the past 5 years add up to ~$500B?

Your graphic chart says too little. You need to provide your monthly production averages and prices, let's do our own comparison.

Nicklee:
To arrive at these numbers, I took average monthly production (pretty fine data resolution) and calculated how much dollars volumes we sold each year. For adjustment for inflation, I used 2.5% annual $ inflation rate. To put inflation adjustment in perspective, $1.00 in 1999 is equivalent to $1.44 in 2014. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers are $488.8B vs. $594B for Jonathan vs. Yaradua+Obj+Abdusalami+Abacha combined. The numbers are what they are because oil price has risen almost 7-8 folds during this period, nearly an order of magnitude increase. In addition to price increase, Nigeria's crude oil output has also increased. I am hoping we can start asking tough questions, we'd continue to be hoodwinked. My question again is simple: even with 2.5% annual inflation adjustment, the numbers are $488.8b vs $594b. Does the investment in Nigeria in the past 5 years add up to ~$500B?

^^^@Bolded: Did you factor in the outrageous annual recurrent expenditure in each years national budget? I think the GEJ admin met it at about 75%, and they've been reducing it year-on-year to the current level of about 68%.....it's not something you can cut drastically just like that!

atlwireles:


Your graphic chart says too little. You need to provide your monthly production averages and prices, let's do our own comparison.

Doing that defeats the whole purpose of putting all these in charts. Do you really want me to a table of monthly production data and crude prices from 1993?

IGBOSON1:


^^^@Bolded: Did you factor in the outrageous annual recurrent expenditure in each years national budget? I think the GEJ admin met it at about 75%, and they've been reducing it year-on-year to the current level of about 68%.....it's not something you can cut drastically just like that!

I only asked a question - haven't come to any conclusions yet.

Only to their pocketing and looting,... ..GEJ game over, Nigerians aren't interested in you, we dont want a clueless goon in aso rock!!!!

IGBOSON1:


^^^@Bolded: Did you factor in the outrageous annual recurrent expenditure in each years national budget? I think the GEJ admin met it at about 75%, and they've been reducing it year-on-year to the current level of about 68%.....it's not something you can cut drastically just like that!

Not true.

However, the percentage of recurrent expenditure to total spending increased significantly. Recurrent expenditure has been a larger component of Nigeria's annual national budgets as it has averaged c.69.51% of aggregate expenditure in the last seven years. This brings to the fore the country's largely inadequate physical infrastructure fuelled by pressures arising from rapidly increasing population growth and lower allocation to capital projects which has averaged c.30.49% over the same period. Whilst we commended the decline in the ratio of recurrent expenditure to total spending in the 2012 and 2013 budgets, we note a trend reversal as the percentage of recurrent expenditure to total expenditure is estimated to increase to c.76.30% from c.67.50% in the 2013 budget.Consequently, capital expenditure as a share of aggregate spending is estimated at c.23.70% in 2014 from c.32.50% in 2013

http://www.proshareng.com/news/22102

Sad part is that the budget size has increased by 65% from 2.8trillion in 2009 to 4.8trillion in 2014 - meaning for every 1 naira increase in capex, 1 naira is added by the thieving politicians to recurrent expenditure as the recurrent expenditure has remained fairly constant at a high % for the past few years.

Nicklee:
To arrive at these numbers, I took average monthly production (pretty fine data resolution) and calculated how much dollars volumes we sold each year. For adjustment for inflation, I used 2.5% annual $ inflation rate. To put inflation adjustment in perspective, $1.00 in 1999 is equivalent to $1.44 in 2014. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers are $488.8B vs. $594B for Jonathan vs. Yaradua+Obj+Abdusalami+Abacha combined. The numbers are what they are because oil price has risen almost 7-8 folds during this period, nearly an order of magnitude increase. In addition to price increase, Nigeria's crude oil output has also increased. I am hoping we can start asking tough questions, we'd continue to be hoodwinked. My question again is simple: even with 2.5% annual inflation adjustment, the numbers are $488.8b vs $594b. Does the investment in Nigeria in the past 5 years add up to ~$500B?

were u expecting Government Investment to equal Public Expenditure? Haven't u heard of recurrent expenditures before? Do u what govt transfers really mean? Do u know how mch this govt has spent on security? Are u blind to the statistics that puts Nigeria as an emerging Economy and the 26th largest in d whole world? Point a regime that has a stronger Naira than Gej's. Why didn't u pull up the statistics of foreign direct investment since the past 5yr? When Gej was writing-off paris club debt, where were u? Are u a learner? Pls stop disgracing ur parents.

darne:
Only to their pocketing and looting,... ..GEJ game over, Nigerians aren't interested in you, we dont want a clueless goon in aso rock!!!!

say for yourself pls and not for the whole country. If u don't nid him, then i nid him, together with other Nigerians that are not blind to statistics.

ferderick:

were u expecting Government Investment to equal Public Expenditure? Haven't u heard of recurrent expenditures before? Do u what govt transfers really mean? Do u know how mch this govt has spent on security? Are u blind to the statistics that puts Nigeria as an emerging Economy and the 26th largest in d whole world? Point a regime that has a stronger Naira than Gej's. Why didn't u pull up the statistics of foreign direct investment since the past 5yr? When Gej was writing-off paris club debt, where were u? Are u a learner? Pls stop disgracing ur parents.

Now it's GEJ that "wrote off" Paris club debt. Stop disgracing your parents

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@ghostmode1
You shouldn't just give us some yeateryears of what he did, since you failed to identify what he did recently, here I copied PointB for all to adjudge the man buhari

10 Powerful Reasons to Vote General Buhari

I am not a fan of Buhari, but I admire his doggedness and capacity for pain. Heck a man who keeps going for election every four-year, loses, then proceed to court, loses in court, does nothing meaningful preceding the next election, only to pop-out again during another election period, is a "specialist in failure" (to borrow from Morinhno). So even as I don’t like him, I admit he’s an enigma, and have put up these 10 reasons why we should consider casting our votes for him. “I have come to bury Caesar, not to praise him!”

1. To Save an old man some tears
Nigerians are happy people (happiest at some point) and we always like to be hospitable and respectful especially to the elderly, old, and aged. So why do we derive joy in seeing an old man – General Buhari weep? Is it because he murdered his colleagues during his active period in the army? Is it because he signed Nigeria into Organisation of Islamic Country (OIC)? Is it because he asked “Muslims to vote for muslims, and Christians to vote for Christians”? Is it because he truncated the Lagos Metro Line setting the city back, in similar fashion as he truncated democracy in 1983 to turn the hands of clock backward? Is because of those he murdered with retroactive decree and several of those infractions he committed when he was a clueless dictator? Is it because he’s more clueless than he looks? How much more crocodile tears must this weeping general shed for Nigerians to forgive him and vote for him? A bucket? A river?

2. To save the Dogs and Baboons
Ladies and gentlemen, and erudite members of this platform, the sanctity of life is paramount; that’s why it is the fundamental of every human right principle. In 2011, when General Buhari lost his third series of general election, our able bodied and talented Youth Corpers, in services of the nation, were slaughtered by supporters of the people's general - almajiris. Throughout this spontaneous act of sheer wickedness and barbarism, not once did the general call them to order; not once did he tell his supporters that they are not acting on his behalf. The general kept mute, obviously pleased with what his supporter did in his name (and hoping it spiral out of control). Thankfully it never did.

Not long ago, the unrepentant general threatened again that “the dogs and the baboons will be soaked in blood” should another humiliating electoral defeat befall him. Nairalanders, let’s save our Youth Corpers, let’s save our friends and family, let avoid this ominous threat altogether by voting the General, else his almajiris, now evolved and more organised with choice weapons, will slaughter all the “dogs and baboons!”

3. To help avenge the death of Buhari’s people killed by JTF
At the height of the Boko Haram murderous saga, the JTF acting in the interest of Nigeria, and while performing their duties, gave Boko haram members a taste of their own medicine by returning fire for fire. As the casualty mounts, General Buhari was famously quoted to have insinuated that the JTF are killing “his people”, instead of inviting them to Aso Rock for dialogue. Equating the murderous and barbaric Boko haram hordes (his people) to the Niger Delta Militants, Buhari was of the opinion that the JFT should stop killing them, rather we should pay them off (amnesty package) for killing Nigerians. A similar debt is said to be owned by the good people Oyo. El Rufia, his party member, reminded us that such deaths are debts which will be paid, even if it takes a hundred years. Gentlemen and ladies, shouldn’t we vote this man in so that our debts are quickly paid and forgotten?

4. Gen Buhari is original “Born to Rule”
Let’s face fact, unless you are Fulani muslim, you are not born to rule, and MUST NEVER rule. If you do, it must be under specific terms and conditionS. Even if you are voted in, you are either a puppet or just a temporary occupant. Buhari fits the profile: He is a Fulani Muslim; a special stock, a descendant of the great Uthman Dan Fodio, conqueror of Hausa, scourge of Ilorin, owner of Nigeria, the prima dona of Born to Rule. Nigeria, according to Ahmadu Bello, is the estate of Uthman Dan Fodio. Who better continue this storied lagacy than General Buhari himself, a true descendant of Uthman Dan Fodio?

5. Buhari has no property; no house (maybe like our current President – no shoes)
Buhari has no house, no property at all (since Nigeria belongs to his great grandfather perhaps). This according to his supporters is the acme of incorrigibility. I don’t know if Buhari’s parents grew up in the streets, and had no houses/properties – not even cows. If they did have any of those, they must be corrupt; they and other Nigerians who own houses are only able to do so because they are corrupt! If Buhari could work, and earn salaries all these years, yet unable to own a home or two, therefore any Nigerian who earned salaries of equal amount as Buhari but manage to own property or two must have corruptly enriched himself. Buhari’s lack of properties has nothing to do with his inability to think, forecast, plan, and execute, he couldn’t own a house because only corrupt people do. Let’s vote Buhari because he has no house, no property (perhaps no shoes too).

6. Buhari will “fight” corruption
Buhari will fight corruption they continue tell us. But no one seems to tell us how! Fortunately, history tells us how Buhari did it the first time out. After successfully (some say cowardly) benefiting from the coup plot that ousted Shagari ‘corrupt’ regime, Buhari placed President Shagari under house arrest, while Ekwueme the VP was bundled into prison. Buhari threw Fela Anikulapo Kuti into prison for possession of foreign currency (Fela had just returned from performing abroad, the poor fella didn’t know a decree has been passed prohibiting holding foreign currency). Meanwhile in the same era 53 suitcases containing some $700M was smuggled into the country by Emir of Gwando, the father of Buhari’s ADC. While Fela languished in detention, the Emir, a well connected “born to rule”, was given a pass! Let’s not forget banning of press freedom (decree 4) and the botched attempt to smuggle a fugitive from the UK by the Buhari’s regime. That is how Buhari fought corruption; wouldn’t we rather go back to this ‘wonderful’ era by voting him?

7. To enlarge Tinubu's empire
The say Buhari is poor, and has no property anywhere in the country (they must really pay peanuts in the military for someone to be unable to save, buy a land, and build a three bedroom apartment after working for decades, either that or the individual has no vision). Since Buhari has no need for material acquisition, but has chosen one of the most avaricious as his backbone and sponsor, isn’t it clear who stands to benefit from the contract? Let’s vote Buhari, and expand Tinubu’s empire from Lagos to beyond!

8. To continue the population lie
A major event in 2016 (a year after the election) is the National Population Census. The stakes are high as evident from the drama and rhetoric. Only in Nigeria is the Sahel savanna region more populated than tropical region, citerus paribus. The fellow who stated he will demystify this myth by not counting cows and goats in the core North as people has already lost his job. Knowing how things work in Nigeria, we can continue with this lie, by voting the People’s General – Gen Muhammad Buhari!

9. To maintain oil block status quo
We know how the oil blocks ownerships are skewed against resources owner, while abundant solid minerals littering other enclaves are rarely stated in the equation, let alone exploited federally. The oil blocks are due for renewal by 2015 and beyond. We can continue to cheat the South and maintain the status quo by voting Buhari! Least we forget, these oil blocks are spoils of war, and payment to the Northern elite for the liberation of Niger Delta from Biafran force. (abi no be so?)


10. To save Buhari's Bank manager
At the basic human level, I really sympathize with Buhari’s bank manager (if Buhari N27M loan claim is anything to go by.) Sanusi spent most of his tenure as central bank governor, hounding bankers for granting loans to you and I to invest in capital market, with the certificate as collateral. If that is considered criminal, how much more granting unsecured loan of such magnitude to Buhari? Or didn’t the bank manager read severally that Buhari has no properties, hence nothing of value to use as security/collateral! I didn’t even know that bank managers can grant a loan of such magnitude on the spot. Someone please tell me the bank and branch. I smell fraud! I am sure the bank manager is being grilled by bank’s credit committee even as we speak, but he could become the finance minister if we all vote Buhari!


I know there are several other reason to 'vote' buhari, but these are my top 10. Let's hear yours.

I am not sure that figure is right or wrong but I also do know that the good is over written by the bad.

The amount of insecurity and corruption in GEJ's administration over rides all the good in his administration.

chemali:


Now it's GEJ that "wrote off" Paris club debt. Stop disgracing your parents

no, it was buhari. Yes, he was busy eating gworo when Okonji was making the moves. Infact, it was the biggest debt forgiven in d history of Africa. Kip disgracing ur parents.

ferderick:

say for yourself pls and not for the whole country. If u don't nid him, then i nid him, together with other Nigerians that are not blind to statistics.

And whats so hard for you to understand? You're speaking for yourself and whoever's with you,...... I am speaking for myself and my people too, does that not make us Nigerians Talkn about statistics how has Gej's administration helped an ordinary Nigerian ?? Give an answer and I'll show you what you lack

ferderick:

no, it was buhari. Yes, he was busy eating gworo when Okonji was making the moves. Infact, it was the biggest debt forgiven in d history of Africa. Kip disgracing ur parents.

Oh now its Okonji. Who's dat? Dumb ass

Alleybuy:
Just how much crude was unaccounted for during those dark years? How could the billions of dollars repatriated to Nigeria as proceeds of corruption come about? The metering company at d terminal would be ordered to dish out random figures and Nigerians readily run along with dat. Think ppl Think...

Are you for real Has there been a time in Nigeria's history where crude oil is stolen and bootlegged than under Jonathan?? Come on...

chemali:


Now it's GEJ that "wrote off" Paris club debt. Stop disgracing your parents

You for simply just correct am naw..