Dear Nigerians,

The table below is the possible presidential result i permutate to forecast likely winner .

I used the past winning votes of each states, party that won the states against current party that is ruling the states ;factoring the party defected states and my forecast is pasted below:

s/n states 2011 winning votes current PTY forecast 2015 result
1 abia pdp 1175984 pdp pdp apc
2 akwa ibom pdp 1165629 pdp pdp apc
3 anambra pdp 1145169 apga pdp apc
4 bauchi cpc 1315209 pdp apc apc
5 bayelsa pdp 504811 pdp pdp apc
6 benue pdp 694776 pdp pdp apc
7 bornu cpc 909700 apc apc apc
8 cross river pdp 709300 pdp pdp apc
9 delta pdp 1378851 pdp pdp apc
10 ebonyi pdp 480592 pdp pdp apc
11 edo pdp 542173 apc apc apc
12 ekiti pdp 135009 pdp pdp apc
13 enugu pdp 802144 pdp pdp apc
14 fct pdp 253444 pdp pdp apc
15 gombe cpc 459500 pdp cpc apc
16 imo pdp 1381357 apc apc apc
17 jigawa cpc 663063 pdp apc apc
18 kaduna cpc 1334244 pdp apc apc
19 kano cpc 1624543 apc apc apc
20 kasina cpc 1163919 pdp apc apc
21 kebbi cpc 501453 pdp apc cpc
22 kogi pdp 399816 pdp pdp pdp
23 kwara pdp 268243 apc apc pdp
24 lagos pdp 1281688 apc apc pdp
25 nasarawa pdp 408997 apc apc pdp
26 niger cpc 652574 pdp apc pdp
27 ogun pdp 309177 apc apc pdp
28 ondo pdp 387376 pdp pdp pdp
29 osun cpc 299711 apc apc pdp
30 oyo pdp 484758 apc apc pdp
31 plateau pdp 1029865 pdp pdp pdp
32 river pdp 1817762 apc apc pdp
33 taraba pdp 451354 pdp pdp pdp
34 yobe cpc 337537 apc apc pdp
35 zamfara cpc 624515 apc apc pdp
36 sokoto cpc 540500 apc apc pdp
37 adamawa pdp 508500 pdp pdp pdp

apc 16920623
pdp 11222620

kindly open the attached excel file for proper view of the analysis.

thanks.

Hmmm

I'm not good with statistics. All I know is that somebody is leaving Aso Rock in 2015.


#SaiBuhari

Oshey statistician

braine:
I'm not good with statistics. All I know is that somebody is leaving Aso Rock in 2015.


#SaiBuhari

Agreed, but that Chris Ngige I don't think is a good choice for a running mate.

for softcopy of the forecast analysis contact :

icezcktee . at . yahoo.com

Last year i predicted APC winning by 21 states with relatively close margin using 2011 result and some other parameters.

I am glad and proud of myself.

Welcome to Nu Nigeria.