It is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. Let us now reverse the case. President Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones. President Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the so called godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties. The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m).
Therefore, my peeps, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young. For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin

VOM

That is what Chuba Okadigbo of blessed memory called political arithmetic and it's only known and played by PDP. While Buhari abandoned SS/SE (his weak side) and is busy romancing with Northern voters(his stronghold), GEJ knowing fully well that SE/SS voters are on his side, has channelled his energy in wooing voters in the North(his weak side). Just like Obj, I dey laugh for the General

As a poliical thinker....I blive Buhari shud quit its obvious he can't win

I have said it earlier and i will still say it.




Nothing can stop GEJ still 2019.

GEJ until APC brings a better candidate

GEJ will cluelessly deal with GMB come 2015.I just they pity the likes of berem and d rest.


Fresh air to every air to everybody joor.

lonelydora:
GEJ until APC brings a better candidate

Exactly, I don't particularly like GEJ but never will I vote for Buhari.
I would even prefer Tambuwal to GEJ but till then GEJ has my vote

My fear is the subsequent killings of innocent southerners including the yorubas after the loss by buhari .
Don't care who win. Just let there be peace .
Nigerians have suffered enough in the hands of our selfish politicians.

Buhari has done little or nothing to win more supporters in the south and convince people that he is not a bigot rather he keeps parading himself as a saint and hoping on SW who are likely to sell out to GEJ again just to protect their own interest.
I so feel for him.

I was made to understand that there are over 4 million voters in Kano alone. That's almost all the registered voters in the SS or even SE ( I maybe wrong). Imagine northern votes, Tinubu SW influence, 25% votes Oshiomole will give them & problem within PDP.

I guess he'll be focusing on his strengths and let go of his weaknesses.

This country needs a drastic change. #giveusfashola as president. Buhari is gonna come with old school ways of politicking. Jonathan Dey try but he has failed in security, corruption and rule of law. Let him go.