The APC primaries in Lagos have come and gone and as predicted in my amateur postulations 1 of the 2 main Aspirants emerged victorious, all they have to do now is to get ready for the grand finale where they will be confronted with the PDP Aspirant barring any unforeseen or predictable development in the party.

Now beaming the flashlight on Lagos PDP and their convoluted internal strife, contentious in fighting with the notable battle for superiority between self-styled leader bode George and one of the main Gubernatorial Aspirants Obanikoro.

Before I continue let me slightly digress, in response to direct messages from my last prediction as regards the APC primaries, permit me to stridently offer some disclaimers, first I will only be surmising based on Political permutations in the South West and I will only be dwelling upon the main Aspirants due to length of the article.

The situation in PDP is a puzzle I daresay a conundrum, in the sense that the main aspirant in the person of Obanikoro seems to be having more of an opposition to his emergence from his own Party leader Olabode George, as opposed to his main Opponent Jimi Agbaje. The genesis of their strife is mired in ambiguity however, one point Political watchers are all agreed upon is that there is little chance of them kiss and make up anytime soon.This been said Obanikoro is without doubt, the most experienced and rugged amongst the aspirants by a long mile. It is not without reason that he was deemed a close confidante and lieutenant of Tinubu during the days in same party. In addition just like Tinubu, he has been able to cultivate fierce and enduring grassroots loyalty and appeal over the years amongst Lagosians, having contested before he is experienced in watching out for pitfalls and traps an inexperienced aspirant might overlook.

More recently even though he stood as a lone figure,not part of the APC yet somehow outside the Political sphere of the Bode George and Ogunlewe caucus, his stint in Ghana as an ambassador, and his more recent appointment as a Minister helped him immensely in shoring up support from the highest echelons of the Presidency. If anyone was ready and rearing to contest it is Obanikoro judging by his antecedents. However there are downsides to his aspirations,these include moral ambiguity trailing him regarding complicity in the burning of his office while serving as a Local Govt Chairman which has refused to go away, to be fair to him he has been absolved by a committee of any involvement however, this is Politics hence his opponents are content with the perception of guilt.Within his Party like I inferred earlier, Bode George has never supported his aspiration including now presently supporting Jimi Agbaje, how they hope to work together to unseat the APC if Obanikoro clinches the ticket will be a mystery. An almost spent but still relevant PDP chieftain Senator Ogunlewe who is in the Bode George caucus, will naturally support Jimi Agbaje, and finally if one goes by the performance of Obanikoro’s candidates in the recently concluded state house of representatives primaries, then it’s safe to conclude he has already lost to Jimi Agbaje his main opponent.

The second opponent Jimi Agbaje has a lot going for him, chief of which is the groundswell of support from the likes of Bode George and Ogunlewe Political network. In addition he is seen as polished, articulate and broadly forthright. Also unlike Obanikoro, he is not saddled with major moral baggage, these indices came into play during the just concluded Lagos State House of Representatives primaries with his caucus emerging with the most number of winning candidates.

The negatives persistently dogging him are firstly his chequered Political history and antecedents of defections, he used to be a close confidante of Tinubu in the other Party, hence trusting him will be an issue with many already promoting the perception that he is an APC/Tinubu mole. Moreover compared to Obanikoro, he is a Political neophyte hence does not possess the grassroots network and support, even with the backing of Bode George and Ogunlewe and their network group caucus. Obanikoro by virtue of his last assignment has a very good relationship with the Presidency, which is key as Political leverage and can only be a negative for Jimi Agbaje. Lastly but as relevant as other points, it will be difficult for his camp to match Obanikoro’s financial capability.

In view of the foregoing I reckon it will boil down to rugged and old fashioned Politics and Politricks,whoever makes the most effort to knock on doors, engages from ward to ward doing the hard graft, will emerge victorious. Considering all the issues above I think Obanikoro might likely win the primaries as he appears to be better prepared and experienced, this is not set in stone just an educated guess based on analysis.

This leaves the other aspirants like Tokunbo Kamson,Deji Doherty. The good thing is that they are malleable to being appeased, mainly to support whoever emerges if they lose the primaries as they most likely will. Hence the PDP will not be confronted with this challenge which the APC are presently grappling with at the moment.

On a last note if Obanikoro wins the primaries or Agbaje, the key to unseating APC will largely depend on the ability of both sides to work together and put up a united front. If they fail to do this then just like it caused their defeat before, they will lose again without any doubt.

http://hibe-online.com/pdp-guber-primaries-who-emerges/

Musiliu Obanikoro all the way!

Do dey still have pdp in lagos...jus asking

Do they conduct primaries in PDP?? I thought Patience Faka jonathan had selected her candidates for the 36 States? Perhaps they are just doing affirmation, who knows! Wetin concern me sef!



Ndi Ahiara Party!

NgeneUkwenu:
Do they conduct primaries in PDP??

they conduct secondaries

lool

KO SI KORO KO SIBO!!!

ola6:
KO SI KORO KO SIBO!!!

Koro Ni bo

if bode george allow him that is

Only a complete foreigner who has never been to or heard of Lagos state will claim not to know who Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is,his reputation garnered not so much as a result of his antecedents as a Pro-Democracy activist, but as a Political godfather whose cloud of influence has firmly enveloped the whole of South West.This whole section could be dedicated to doing an outline of those Asiwaju has installed and we will still lack the space to finish the list hence we will only restrict ourselves to his immediate family,starting with the Beautiful and delectable Senator Oluremi Tinubu his wife.With virtually no antecedents as a serious and active Politician and no discernible antecedent apart from being the wife of Asiwaju, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu was hurriedly adopted as the replacement for Senator Olorunimbe Mamora.The testament to the overawing influence of "ifa Eko"(Lagos Oracle) is that Senator Mamora was not a first time Senator,and had performed creditably well but had to give way when the boss wife signified interest in his seat.

Asiwaju's late mother Alhaja Habibat Mogaji was the Iyaloja in General for the whole of Lagos state for several decades before she passed on,in the tussle for her replacement while the older market women wanted one of them to suceed her as the Iyaloja, Asiwaju placed his foot down and insisted on his first daughter… http://hibe-online.com/silver-spoons-contesting-elections-in-lagos/