Governorship Race: How States May Vote

Abu Nmodu, Achor Abimaje, Ankeli Emmanuel, Nnamdi Mbawike, stanley nkwocha, Yahya Sarki
— Dec 14, 2014

With the close of primaries for all elective public offices as set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last Friday, candidates of all political parties have emerged and set to slug it out at the 2015 general elections.

While the primaries in some states went without hitches, in most states of the federation and across party lines, the primaries only threw up discontent feelings and rejections which in turn may alter political permutations in some states, especially in the governorship race.

While not discounting the role the courts will play in possibly upturning governorship candidates for next year’s election, it is rife to state that while voting patterns in the states in the past could be easily predictable, with the merger of political parties into the opposition APC, needless to state that the dynamics, permutations, local indices, individuals, religious and ethnic inclinations which play big roles in elections will help shape the decision of those who will emerge as governors in 2015.

In Adamawa State for instance, LEADERSHIP Sunday’s investigations revealed that the state which has been an enclave of the PDP since 1999 is up against a real test, this time in the hands of the APC.

Needless to state that the fallouts from the primary, which held in Abuja and produced Nuhu Ribadu saw powerful chieftains and party stalwarts staying away from the primary and subsequently national convention of the PDP, is a warning signal for PDP in the state.

Except the PDP quickly mends it’s fences and assuages the anger of its vast and powerful politicians in the state, LEADERSHIP Sunday gathered that the aggrieved stalwarts are plotting to engage acts detrimental to the party to send a message. Except realignments are quickly made by the PDP, it may be safe to give Adamawa to the APC, where Senator Jubrilla Bindow holds sway.

In Akwa Ibom, a straight fight is expected between Emmanuel Udom of the PDP and APC’s Umana Umana .

Akwa Ibom, which has largely been a PDP state since 1999, is still expected to get stuck to the party, even though APC will not be a pushover at next year’s election as Umana will show the “political lion” in him and give his erstwhile boss, Akpabio, a run for his money.

Known for his political boisterousness, Akpabio is seen as a politician that cannot be shoved aside easily.

In Abia State, except in 2007 when former governor Orji Uzor Kalu dared the gods with his Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) and enthroned incumbent Governor T. A. Orji, the state has largely tilted towards the PDP.

However, it would be an overstatement for the commercial state to be comfortably handed over to the PDP.

The much-touted non-performance of the incumbent governor has put off a lot of electorate who would rather look elsewhere. Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu of the PDP knows very well that he is up in a tight race against APGA’s Alex Otti. Regrettably, APC will not have a huge say in the governorship of the state come 2015. Abia will be a tight race.

In Bauchi State, “too close to call” best describe who may likely emerge as the governor, even as it is safe to state that the battle will be mainly between the PDP’s Mohammed Awwal Jatau and Barr. Muhammed Abubakar of the APC.

Known to possess highly sophisticated electorates who are not moved by parties but by individual candidates and their antecedents, Bauchi State is yet another state where the governorship tussle will not be easily predictable.

For both Jatau and Abubabakar, theirs is a fate that will ultimately be decided by the electorates, while the Buhari factor may play to the advantage of the APC’s candidate, though incumbency and federal might are enough to counter Buhari’s threat.

In Borno State, analysts opine that it will be a one-way cruise for incumbent Governor Kashim Shettima as the PDP, following the entry of Ali Modu Sheriff, has found it difficult to harness its interests and become potent.

The nomination of Gambo Lawal by the PDP has made things more difficult for the party, as he is largely seen as a “detached politician” who abandoned the state during its crisis, but has now strolled in during the election.

Kashim Shettima, even without the support of Buhari, has worked tirelessly to sell himself to his people despite the security situation in the state, and now, largely commands huge followership. Needless, to state that the controversy surrounding Ali Modu Sheriff over complications with the Boko Haram has further put the PDP to be in some sort of political island. It is very safe to handover Borno State to Shettima and the APC.

In Kaduna State, another indefinite situation exists as it could go either way. Both Ramalan Yero of the PDP and Nasir el-Rufai of the APC have found a match in themselves.

Highly political, Kaduna State has become the revolving ground for Northern politics. However, while it easily becomes the natural choice for “political plotting” in the north, it is never easy for it in terms of state politics. The ruling PDP has not allowed Kaduna to go off its grip since 1999 as regards governorship; however, Yero will have to do more if he is to wade off the threat of the APC and maintain the status quo.

In Kano State, while it may be safe to handover Kano to the Abdullahi Ganduje’s APC on paper, internal intrigues in the state suggest that the very sophisticated state’s electorate who share same traits as those of Bauchi State may favour Sagir Takai of the PDP.

As things stand now, it is the Kano electorate and who they favour that will pick the governorship of the state, as the electorate are known never to play party politics but go for individuals.

In Enugu, close followers of Enugu politics believe that the consensus candidate of the PDP, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, who is currently serving as a member of the Federal House of Representatives will have a smooth ride to government house in 2015.

It could be recalled that Governor Sullivan Chime and a faction of the PDP loyal to him had announced Ugwuanyi as the consensus candidate of the party after series of meetings. Even though there was an initial rift between Governor Sullivan Chime and Ekweremadu, their appearance at the Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, venue of the primary of the PDP where Ugwuanyi emerged as winner, has given him an edge over other contestants.

The voting pattern in Sokoto will be between the state and the federal might.

With the defection of the state governor, Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), and shortly followed by the speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the battle line seems to have been visibly drawn.

The transfer of aggression seems to have become even stiffer as Speaker Tambuwal won the APC gubernatorial ticket. Hence, the assumption that the federal government might be all out to take their pound of flesh by ensuring his defeat at the poll comes 2015.

The emergence of Ambassador Abdallah Wali as the PDP gubernatorial candidate and the support he enjoys from former governor Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa might not guarantee victory for the PDP, as Wamakko with his state grassroots support is said to be hundred percent behind Tambuwal.

In Plateau State, despite all the political conspiracy, Senator Gyang Pwajok representing Plateau North in the National Assembly has won the Plateau PDP governorship primary election to pick the PDP ticket in spite of opposition to his aspiration over zoning and with the iron grip that PDP has always had in the state; it is a safe bet to assume that the dominant party will win the governorship in 2015.

In Kebbi State, the fallout from the just-concluded party congresses may also have a significant impact on the chances of the parties before the public. The events leading to the emergence of Kebbi governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Gen. Sarin Yaki Bello (rtd) on December 9, 2014, during the nationwide party congress has generated a lot of controversies and heat within the party. Already the party is engrossed in another problem of zoning or rotational system of power. The agitation of political dominance from Zuru, Yauri and Argungu emirates against Gwandu emirate is now pronounced more than anytime. The other emirates felt that the overbearing power of Gwandu emirate in the politics of the state will not allow them to have a test of the most coveted seat of power in the state. That however may not stop the party from clinching the post in 2015 as the APC and its candidate, Senator Atiku Bagudu, are still relatively not rooted in the state.

In Ogun State, the election of the incumbent governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, as the flag-bearer of the All Progressives Congress and the iron grip that the APC seems to have in the state may just ensure it emerging victorious in 2015. His chances have been helped by the crisis that has engulfed the PDP in the state.

Amosun, ordinarily, should have gone to sleep, assured of victory in 2015. But the crisis that engulfed his party which ultimately led to the exit of the group loyal to former governor, Segun Osoba, is a big dent. Analysts believe that if the governor puts his house in order, while the crisis bedevilling PDP in the state continues, the governor will still emerge victorious in the 2015 polls.

In Niger State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have their areas of stronghold. Whereas PDP does very well in most elections in Niger north predominantly Nupes, the Niger north is always for the legacy parties that form APC.

In Niger south, it is assumed that PDP always do well in the area because the area is allegedly vulnerable to influence of money and respect for people in position of authority, whereas Niger north is assumed to be politically sophisticated.

As it is today, the APC, because of the desire for change, may have natural followership, but the snag is that the party and the campaign organisation of the candidates of the opposition party may not be able to withstand the financial strength of the PDP.


Culled from: http://leadership.ng/news/395027/governorship-race-states-may-vote

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Reading all this may make me sightless

Hmmmm.... SIGHTFUL ANALYSIS indeed, But PDP state(s) government have little or less problem going back to state house, but APC have to work very hard in other to win..