Hello danjohn,

Do you recall this thread of yours Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model from the last election. The models predicted quite accurately the eventual results.

How about a similar model for the 2015 election. Are you up for it?

aletheia, I am so sorry for my delayed response. I have been working on a more complex model than the one I created last time. This election is a lot harder to model. There are many factors to consider and at this point I think both candidates are more evenly matched than they were in 2011. I will spend time this weekend to finish work on my model and have it ready for you. My sincere apologies for my delayed follow up.

danjohn:
aletheia, I am so sorry for my delayed response. I have been working on a more complex model than the one I created last time. This election is a lot harder to model. There are many factors to consider and at this point I think both candidates are more evenly matched than they were in 2011. I will spend time this weekend to finish work on my model and have it ready for you. My sincere apologies for my delayed follow up.

No worries bro. Will be waiting for your response. Did some modelling myself which showed basically a dead heat in which the elections could go either way with a winning margin of about 400,000 to just over a million votes.

The moment, it can be guaranteed that GMB will secure 50% from the NC region, there is no way the election will be too close to call. All in all, i am certain of a Buhari win.

GMB 65% (sw), 10%(se) 15%(ss) 85%(nw) 75%(ne) 55%(nc).

While i can predict for the 5 other regions with close to certainty , i am a bit unsure of the NC/fct.

The level of PVC collection across regions gives a good view of possible voters turn out.