Those hawks circling Buhari
on december 22, 2014 at 12:04 am in people & politics
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By Ochereome Nnanna
WE are still discussing matters arising from the emergence of the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) as we get set for the frenzy of presidential campaigns. The searchlight is more on the APC because it is the new kid on the block. The party is beset with a number of post-natal problems.
Some of its leading lights have almost made a vocation of failing in their bids to take over power from the ruling PDP. Quite apart from the much touted incumbency factors which naturally play in the PDP’s favour, a close examination of why presidential also-rans, such as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Major General Muhammadu Buhari failed in the past will reveal fatal flaws which, if not quickly fixed on this new platform, will still become the major reasons they may fail, yet again. Unfortunately for the party, these are mentality problems which relate to the twin demons of religion and regionalism; problems that their opponent, PDP does not have; has never had.
The major leg of the religious factor assailing the APC is linked to the original calculations behind the mergers that became the APC. It was reasoned that if the North West, with its real or bogus population and number of registered voters combines with the large population and voters of the South West, they can produce a president of Nigeria.

General Muhammadu Buhari
Let us put it in figures for greater clarity. In 2011, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) published the following figures as the final number of voters by geopolitical zones: South-West: 14,269,163 voters out of official (2006) population of 27,722,432; South East: 7,577,212 out of 16,395,555; South-South: 9,474,427 out of 21,044,081; North West: 19,803,689 out of 35,915,467; North East: 10,949,689 out of 18,984,299 and North Central: 10,684,017 out of 18,968,717.
It is a historical fact that the APC was originally formed by mergers of regional parties of Arewa North and South West, such as the All Nigerian Political Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) for Arewa North and the Action Congress of Nigeria for South West. The main motivating reason for the birth of APC was to remove power from President Jonathan and give it to back to Arewa. The calculation and permutation was that if Arewa Muslim North-based parties (where the reactionary elements have been clamouring for the North to snatch back political power, which they regard as their birthright) combine their perceived voting strength with that of the South West, they will win the presidency with or without the support of the rest three zones. This is because their numbers, based on the 2011 INEC figures, will come to a voting strength of 44,848,911 compared to the share of other three regions (SE, SS and NC: 27,735,656) where the PDP (and by extension President Goodluck Jonathan) seems to derive virtually unwavering support.
This calculation failed woefully in 2011 because the eventual number of voters came to just about 37 million votes, and the voting pattern did not follow this prediction. Besides, it is not easy to use religion and region as baits to persuade political leaders from Arewa who are big stakeholders in the PDP federal government to transfer their loyalty from their ruling party to a new one that is merely aspiring to take over.
This pattern of merger created a big problem for the APC. Because the North East and North West are Muslim-dominated and the South West is not only made up of about fifty per cent Muslims but also has a leadership that are mostly Muslims, it became difficult to balance the leadership of the party with Christian elements.
This gave PDP supporters room to slam unsavoury tags on the party, such as “supporter of APC”, “Muslim Brotherhood” and what have you. However, the APC received major lifelines with the continued presence of Senator Chris Ngige and Governor Rochas Okorocha from the South East and Edo State’s Governor Adams Oshiomhole. This was buoyed by Rivers State’s Rotimi Amaechi, who decamped from PDP.
It was a lifeline, but it has not cured the fundamental problem. The difficulty that APC’s presidential candidate had in picking his running mate owed to the faulty foundation of the party. Only Muslims have clout among the South West leaders of the party. There is no visible electoral asset from the South West who is a Christian in the APC leadership. Therefore, only a Muslim/Muslim ticket would be strong, but not strong enough to win a presidential election.
Southern partner
The Christians will feel left out, and obviously, the bid is bound to fail – again. But if they gave the VP to Yoruba Christian who cannot get votes it will become Buhari/Pastor Tunde Bakare all over again. And if they take it to the South-South, which has been a major financier through Amaechi, the main southern partner of Arewa in this merger – The South West – will have nothing to show for their sacrifices. It is really a bone in APC’s throat!
Another, more insidious problem the APC presidential candidate is already facing is what I call the circling of hawks. Northern regional hawks, who tried to snatch power from President Jonathan inside the PDP but repeatedly failed, have now moved over to the APC. These include Professor Ango Abdullahi, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, Alhaji Ibrahim Coommassie and Dr. Junaidu Mohammed, among the rest. They have already formed a cabal around Buhari. These are the unabashed “born-to-rule” elements who believe that Nigeria is a colony of Arewa, and it is anathema to them that anyone who is not a privileged, anointed Hausa-Fulani Muslim should lead them. These are the people who have made it clear that the war on the Boko Haram insurgency is a “war against the North”. Coomassie and Abdullahi have already announced that Buhari is a “candidate of the North”.
What will happen if Buhari wins the 2015 election? It is obvious these hawks will move in and resume their old Arewa agenda that caters for the privileged aristocrats while impoverishing the masses. These were the people who pioneered the seizure of mission schools to truncate the educational advantage of the South and Christians, who promote the quota system, convert the federal ministries, parastatals and agencies to honeypots for their kinsmen and women; people who regard the oil wells of the Niger Delta as their booty. These people are actually de-marketing the Buhari candidacy further. But the funny thing is that these hawks are mere opportunists. They have no electoral value for Buhari and the APC, but they are waiting and hoping for the buffet to be ready. Then, they will crowd out the non-Arewa merger partners. After all, they have their power back.
The APC must reform these foundational negatives and balance the leadership and structure of their party if they hope to last the distance in this race. They must tone down sectionalism and tell the hawks to take the back seat or actually jump off the bus. These are issues that can turn voters against even candidates that are otherwise highly rated. The problem with Nigerian politicians is that they carry these heavy loads into political contests and when they lose, they say they have been rigged out.

Sense!!!