There is a myth in Oyo State that it is impossible for a
governor to run two terms because Ibadan people are
averse to serving a person twice. This belief has its root
in the inability of Chief Bola Ige, first governor of old
Oyo State, to secure a second term in 1983. The one
called Cicero of Esa Oke was unable to win re-election
because he failed to secure the support of Ibadan people.
Dr. Omololu Olunloyo, Ige’s successor, never bothered to
seek any elective position after the military truncated
civilian rule in December 1983.
Chief Kolapo Ishola, who became governor of the new
Oyo State in January 1992 but had his mandate curtailed
in 1993 aftermath the General Sani Abacha coup, did
not also bother to seek re-election in 1998 when General
Abdulsalami Abubakar lifted the ban on politics. Alhaji
Lamidi Adesina, though of Ibadan origin, failed to secure
a second term in 2003 because he lacked the support of
many Ibadan people. He was displaced by a fellow Ibadan
man, Senator Rashidi Ladoja.
Ladoja would probably have broken the jinx had he been
on the governorship seat when his party, the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) had its primaries. But internal
politics saw him impeached. Although he challenged this
in court and was eventually restored, he could not
participate in the primaries and Adebayo Alao-Akala, his
deputy who was sworn in as the governor following the
impeachment, picked the party’s ticket, subsequently
winning the governorship election in 2007. But Alao-
Akala failed to secure a second term in the governorship
election of 2011 in which Ladoja also participated because
the people of Ibadan didn’t support his aspiration. Thus,
Senator Isiaq Abiola Ajimobi won the election.
As the 2015 governorship election draws close, the
‘Ibadan people don’t serve anyone twice’ mantra has
again rent the air. Albeit, that particular myth is headed
for the rocks as somebody who has ruled the state before
is set to rule the state again.
There are five major contenders in the governorship race
in Oyo State. They are- the incumbent, Senator
Ajimobi, Senator Ladoja of Accord Party, Chief Alao-
Akala of Labour Party (LP), Senator Teslim Folarin of
PDP, and Engr. Seyi Makinde of the Social Democratic
Party (SDP). Of these five, both Folarin and Makinde
will have minimal impact as the governorship contest is a
three-horse race involving two former governors and the
incumbent.
Unlike what obtained in the past, the February 28
governorship election in Oyo State will not be decided by
what happens in Ibadan because all of the five major
contenders will have a share of Ibadan votes. So, it is
quite unlikely that any of the contestants will have a
great advantage from Ibadan.
While Ladoja may still hold on to Oluyole, Ona-Ara and
Ibadan South-East, Ajimobi will lead in Iddo, Ibadan
North-West, Lagelu and Akinyele. Sharafadeen Alli,
Alao-Akala’s running mate, has over the years held the
ace in Ibadan North politics and is likely to deliver it to
the LP. The contest for Ibadan South-West is strictly
between APC and LP. Constituency 1, inhabited by
Ibadan indigenes, may be won by the APC while
Constituency 2 may be won by LP. The two remaining
local governments are too close to call.
One factor that may favour Ajimobi in Ibadan is that his
perception by traders and artisans has been changing
since December. Until he came up with the N300
MSME facility for traders, his government was seen as
being too pro-civil servants to the neglect of other
categories of workers. So, this change in perception may
swing some votes to him.
The battle for the three local governments in Ibarapa is a
straight fight between Ajimobi and Ladoja. It will be 2:1
in favour of either of the parties. LP will only mop up
what the duo fail to pick.
Alao-Akala has the edge in Ogbomoso and Oke-Ogun
with Ajimobi and Ladoja coming closely behind him in
that order. Alao-Akala will lead in all the local
governments in Ogbomoso as well as not less than five of
the 10 in Oke-Ogun. Ajimobi is likely going to lead in
Iseyin, Itesiwaju and Saki East.
The governorship contest will be decided in the Oyo area.
It is whoever controls the majority of votes in that axis
that will win the election. The three leading contenders
are all strong in Oyo and stand a good chance in the four
local governments in the area. However, if Ajimobi wins
two of the four and both Alao-Akala and Ladoja share
the remaining two apiece. The governor will win the
election. If Ladoja wins in three and Ajimobi wins one
with Alao-Akala winning none, Ladoja will win the
election. But if Alao-Akala wins in two and both Ajimobi
and Ladoja win in one each, Alao-Akala will emerge
victorious.
However, a possible scenario is that of a candidate
winning the four local governments; that is dependent on
where the palace swings. The Alaafin is still so influential
among his subjects that they still largely defer to his
preference. So, if the monarch comes out to openly
throw his support behind any of the candidates, the
beneficiary will not only win the majority of votes in Oyo
but will also emerge winner of the election.
The question is: Who will the Iku Baba Yeye anoint
among the three contenders?

Ajimobi will break that fvcking curse
GMB2015

Sylvarresta:
Ajimobi will break that fvcking curse
GMB2015

it will be very difficult as i see accord giving him a tough chase,,pdp is dead in oyo

Unfortunately, we are voting 'ACCORD'ingly.