As the 2015 presidential campaign assumes a feverish dimension, YUSUF ALLI, MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION takes a second look at the Northern flak, the past and present chances of President Goodluck Jonathan and his arch-rival, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
The die is cast with the hot tempo of campaign by both the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Beyond the soap box jibes is the reality of the jostle for votes by the parties. According to Section 133(a) and (b) of the 1999 Constitution, the President is deemed duly elected with majority of YES votes and one-quarter of the votes cast in at least 24 states.
Going by the vexatious comments by the President, the 2015 electoral contest appears keener than that of 2011 because of political and election indices that have changed nationwide. These include the merger of opposition parties into APC; mass defection of PDP governors and members to APC; intense security challenges leading to the declaration of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe; and economic problems which have put the ruling party on the edge.
For Jonathan who polled 22, 495, 187 votes (58.89 %) to defeat Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (hitherto of CPC and now APC) who garnered 12,214,853(31.98%), the 2015 poll is not a race he can take for granted in any part of the country. The PDP is more so in a tinder box with the introduction of Permanent Voter Card (PVC) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) an electoral sanitization device which might make rigging impossible. The era of jumbo votes from some parts of the country, especially from the South-South, the South-East and the North is gone with the introduction of PVCs.
One of the battle grounds is the North which comprises the North-Central, North-East and North-West. The Post-AFIS number of registered voters recently released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) shows that out of 70,383,427 eligible voters nationwide, the North-West, the North-Central and the North-East have a combined voters’ strength of 37, 120, 011. While the North-West accounts for 18,616,499 voters, the North-East has 10,447,510 and North-Central is 8,056, 002. The final release of voters’ register on Tuesday will determine where each geopolitical zone now stands because of the challenges facing the nation on the distribution of Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs).
In the 2011 poll, Jonathan polled 8,351,472 votes in the North- the North-West (3,395,724), North-East (1,832,622) and North-Central (3,123, 126) compared to Buhari’s 11,691, 355 as follows: North-West (6,453,437), North-East (3,624,919) and North-Central (1,612,999). The scenarios have changed in the 19 states in the North.
KWARA
With the defection of most PDP stalwarts led by the new scion of Kwara State politics, Dr. Bukola Saraki, to APC, the failure of the ruling party is sealed in the state. Although Saraki had wanted to be the nation’s president in 2011, he later mobilized Kwarans massively to vote for President Goodluck Jonathan. The twist made the President to secure 268, 243 votes in Kwara State and left Buhari to scratch the surface for 83, 603 votes. The story is different today with APC as the ruling party in the state. PDP and Jonathan now have to struggle to get at least 25 per cent of the votes in the state and improved on its 1999, 2003, 2007 and performance.
. In spite of the fact that Jonathan attempted at a rally in Ilorin to underestimate the strength of Saraki Dynasty, the PDP has not presented the people of the state with an alternative choice. The party’s governorship candidate, Senator Simeon Sule Ajibola poses no threat to APC. Apart from Ajibola being politically weak, religious factor might work against him because the electorates in Kwara Central and Kwara North won’t want to vote for a Christian candidate. A friend of the President’s family, Hajiya Bola Shagaya, a blessed businesswoman, is an emerging political factor in the state but she cannot match the Saraki Dynasty. The loss of her favoured governorship aspirant, Dele Belgore (SAN) at the party’s primaries indicated that Shagaya is not yet politically on ground in the state. The Minister of National Planning, Dr. Abubakar Olanrewaju Suleiman has done much for the employed graduates within a short time in office, his political weight is nit divorced from his mentor, Shagaya. If the PDP leaders in the state can close ranks at the 11th hour, the party can make some inroads but not to the extent of displacing APC.
NIGER
The apparent low performance of the Governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu may be PDP’s undoing and add to its electoral woes in the state. Were it not for a quick intervention of the presidency, PDP almost lost the senatorial bye-election which was won by Sen. Nuhu Zagbayi. The President realized this deficiency when he quickly made an emergency shuttle to a foremost kingmaker in the state, Ex-President Ibrahim Babangida to save the situation. The presidency was aware that the governor had been having a cat and mouse relationship with former Heads of State and retired Army Generals in the state. APC is stronger than it was in 2011 in Niger State. But the shuttles to the Hilltop in Minna might do little to save Jonathan because he lost the state with a wide margin in 2011. While Buhari earned 652,574 votes, Jonathan got 321,429 votes.
GOMBE
This is a tough terrain for PDP where it had always won overwhelmingly. In terms of performance, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo has endeared himself to the people of the state. But his Achilles heel was his being politically estranged from key politicians and leaders in the state, especially his hitherto godfather, ex-Governor Danjuma Goje. This political naivety and the muzzling of the opposition have made the opposition popular in the state. A top politician, who spoke in confidence, said: “Though I am in PDP, the truth is that Goje controls a substantial part of the state politically. The desire for change in the North-East because of insurgency might have a bandwagon effect on PDP’s chances in Gombe. I see our people voting for APC notwithstanding the good performance of Dankwambo.” Even at that, Buhari has always had upper hand than Jonathan in the state. In 2011, while Buhari scored 459,898, Jonathan obtained 290, 347.
NASARAWA
The PDP is still being haunted by the loss of the.... Read more http://thenationonlineng.net/new/jonathan-versus-buhari-rematch/ |
