By Adewale Adeoye

A nation becomes a dungeon, when the people’s history no longer matters. But history is not static. The South West, (SW), with 14 million voters, is a sexy bride in the coming elections. What determines which party wins vary in each region. Yorubaland is unique. Politicians have failed to bring into sharp focus, critical issues that matter most. They deploy bitter campaigns, insults and abuses. President Goodluck Jonathan fired salvos during his visit to Lagos. He did not promise any single project for Yoruba nation in all his campaigns in the SW so far. He spoke as if jittery. He was fidgety, wobbly, edgy and squirmy. In war, as it is in politics, those are signs of weakness, a pointer to camp disarray and retreat. Gen Mohammadu Buhari hinges his campaigns on three planks: Jobs, Security and anti-corruption. But there is the need to take the edge off primordial fears which, to a large extent, will determine the attitude of many voters, at least in the South West, on the day of reckoning.

Politicians often bask in the rapture of illusion, expressed mostly in the media, in rallies and walk-outs. Often, they confuse public enthusiasm with deep-rooted blood-bound alliances. It is a big farce to think that the February 14 elections will not be determined by history and ethnicity, that will be dealing with appearances, leaving behind the timeless reality of a country acutely divided, and which history is dotted by deadly clashes of civilisations. Buhari, is Fulani. Two centuries ago, architects of the thriving Yoruba Empire would not have contemplated Yoruba would be asked to vote for a Fulani candidate in an election, no matter how dignified. The Fulani and the Yoruba, in truth, have been arch rivals in the contest for land, values, power and state resources. We neglect this to our own peril. The rivalry is agelong. In the spring of 1804, Uthman Dan Fodio had led a revolution that cut across today’s Northern hemisphere. The revolt led to millions of deaths, including women and children. The Yoruba nation painfully lost some ancestral territories. The last scuffle being the 1842 combat to reclaim most of the lost grounds, until Britain came, leaving bitter memories in the sub consciousness of generations that followed. In the elections of 1950s and 1960s, the echoes of the acrimony did not abate. These reflect in all Yoruba voting patterns.

To many Yoruba given my interactions at a recent Pan-Yoruba meeting at Ibadan which I shared, the Hausa-Fulani is still seen as millstone. Many recollect that the late Premier of Northern Region taunted the region that he would dip the Holy Quaran into the sea, the euphemism for atrocious conquest. In the 60s, about 29 Yoruba leaders, including Chief Obafemi Awolowo, were hauled into detention at the instance of the Hausa-Fulani-dominated political class. In subsequent years, the rivalry of times past, defined the political momentum. In 1993, a different pattern was etched only because Afenifere, the Yoruba traditional political institution, was prevented by the military from leading the Yoruba political processes, leaving Yoruba with restricted two-party choice. However, the annulment of the 1993 election, the assassinations of Yoruba icons, deliberate plots that scuttled the economic mainstay of the Yoruba people only rekindled the primordial sentiments against the Hausa-Fulani. The 1993 incidence led to the birth of several self determination groups, which, today, and I am in a vantage position to know, remain the most potent political force in Yorubaland. These groups, like most Yoruba people are anxious to know the content and form of the negotiation with Buhari by their APC leadership. Contrary to assumptions, the fact is that majority of Yoruba people, especially those at the lower rank, are conscious of the history of rivalry with the Hausa-Fulani. The emergence of Boko Haram, irrespective of its vagaries, has further deepened the Yoruba suspicion against the Hausa-Fulani. For many Yoruba people, especially those in the rural areas, this new alliance between the Yoruba political leadership has generated a mismatch of suspicion, confusion and then expectations. It is even more dangerous for anyone to hinge on “power must return to the North,’ as the campaign groundnorm. For the average Yoruba person, true federalism and self determination are the key issues. The Hausa-Fulani stood against these pillars, until now that Buhari has brought some rays of hope. It is important that the Hausa-Fulani should see this new alliance as a rare spirit of reconciliation on the part of the Yoruba people. It is also important to dissuade the assumption that the alliance does not fuel the feeling in the South East and among ethnic minorities that it represents a realignment of the same forces that prosecuted the civil war, a gang-up of the big nationalities against ethnic minorities. An inroad into the South-South will be difficult, unless campaigns build confidence among a people that have suffered marginalization and misery for too long especially as it regards what happens to their oil resources. Certainly, President Jonathan offers no succor to the Yoruba demand. He has failed in all ramifications. He, in fact, has no solutions to the pile of problems, meaning that for many Yoruba, the choice still remains tough. But the average Yoruba is not lost to the ruinous policies of the PDP and its impact on the emasculation of the Yoruba heritage, and the fact that the APC has brought hope to a despairing population.
Yet, for reasons of grief memories gone by, it is easier for the All Progressives Congress, (APC) state governors to win the South West than to ensure the overwhelming victory for Buhari. But as it is, the victory of General Buhari has become a necessary uplift from the squelching mud. The new equation has proven the maxim that solutions to a people’s aspirations could come from unlikely quarters. It has asserted the dialectics in Yoruba philosophy that “ninu ikoko dudu l’eko funfun ti n jade-The snow-white maize porridge is, nevertheless, a product of the burnt, gritty black pot. Will Buhari save the Yoruba nation? PDP has proved that it cannot allay the fears neither can it meet the aspiration of the Yoruba. For six years, Yoruba have been so kind to a President that has paid back with vicious neglect. So, for me, hacking down the PDP remains an historical task for every Yoruba person. The party has brought disgrace and shame to the values and traditions held dear. The PDP has created a crestfallen nation in its own image. The party has ruined the potentials of the SW. The party is led by an uninspiring President, who has neither produced a book nor an epic statesmanship on his understanding of how to build a great country.

The PDP candidate lacks the capacity, the will and the knowledge to uplift Nigeria from her current state of trance, depression and hopelessness. The Yoruba believes in federalism, it is inspiring that the APC has brought this up as a critical campaign element. The content and form must be broadly defined and popularized in the South West. It is on this note that one would expect a shift in the paradigm of the APC campaign in the SW. Campaigns should have national appeal, but must also be region-specific. The major challenge facing Nigeria is how to create a new foundation; it is whether we want to stay together as one and on what terms. It is whether Lagos will take control of revenue from her sea port and if Ijaw nation will control her oil or not. It is obvious that President Jonathan will not address these issues, having used the national conference he ordered as a mere electoral gimmick. The APC seems likely to be trusted with the will to take the lid off a boiling saucepan. Before February 14, APC needs to deconstruct the mindset of the Yoruba people, assuage old fears with a new tonic that offers to put an end to affliction and mourning.
Adewale Adeoye is CNN African journalist award winner, four time winner of the Nigerian Media Merit Award, (NMMA) and an alumni of the United Nations, (UN) Institute of Training and Research (UNITAR)
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Adewale Adeoye
waleadeoye90@yahoo.com

Ok

it's like in the Yoruba land, when you don't vote whoever the others vote, you will be disowned. I mean, they follow follow the crowd without knowing the dead -end

There are no bigger threat to the Oodua nation than Abuja as occupied by the person of Jonathan Goodluck.
He is even more feudal and clannish than the kaduna mafia of old.
If the aroma of the coffee has not got to you, Nigeria is on the brink.
Jonathan is struggling to contain a kanuri dominated boko haram. How is he going to contain an hausa /fulani revolt?
On the other front, do not delude yourself that the SW will follow buhari blindly.Any future support will be based on performance, fairness and social justice to all.
That in addition to the continuing fight for regional autonomy.

If the Fulani domination is not stopped now,it would never be........and we know where the blame would go to......If the SW loves this country so much,they should produce a leader of their own and stop this follow follow with the North....All they want is power.....and trust me on this,the Growth Or Downward fall would depend on 2015 elections......for the sake of remembrance, the fuel subsidy protest would be little compared to the crises that would follow after the elections......

What else do you expect? N.L. is blocking so much info these days from people! Check my signature for the truth, take action!

oduastates:
There are no bigger threat to the Oodua nation than Abuja as occupied by the person of Jonathan Goodluck.
He is even more feudal and clannish than the kaduna mafia of old.
If the aroma of the coffee has not got to you, Nigeria is on the brink.
Jonathan is struggling to contain a kanuri dominated boko haram. How is he going to contain an hausa /fulani revolt?
On the other front, do not delude yourself that the SW will follow buhari blindly.Any future support will be based on performance, fairness and social justice to all.
That in addition to the continuing fight for regional autonomy.

and u think buhari will be abble to save our oil installations from massive onslaught by now well equipped militants tht have acquired warships? The former can be contained cos therell be money to finance a war against a hausa revolt but when the oil stop flowing how will. Nigeria battle the militants?

oduastates:
There are no bigger threat to the Oodua nation than Abuja as occupied by the person of Jonathan Goodluck.
He is even more feudal and clannish than the kaduna mafia of old.
If the aroma of the coffee has not got to you, Nigeria is on the brink.
Jonathan is struggling to contain a kanuri dominated boko haram. How is he going to contain an hausa /fulani revolt?
On the other front, do not delude yourself that the SW will follow buhari blindly.Any future support will be based on performance, fairness and social justice to all.
That in addition to the continuing fight for regional autonomy.

and u think buhari will be abble to save our oil installations from massive onslaught by now well equipped militants tht have acquired warships? The former can be contained cos therell be money to finance a war against a hausa revolt but when the oil stop flowing how will. Nigeria battle the militants? Not to tlk of the effect on the economy.