AFTER much speculation, Nigeria late Saturday postponed planned February 14 national elections by six weeks, leaving many scrambling to analyse what this means, and who benefits, and who does not.

The presidential election will now be held on March 28, with the electoral commission saying the decision to delay the poll had been informed by the army’s engagement with insurgents in the north-east, even as critics suggested a logistical headache was as much a part of the reason.

The timing has also been questioned: it is also not lost on many observers that the ruling party is facing a strong opposition challenge. We look at possible winners, and losers, of the decision to delay the ballot.

WINNERS:

People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

The party of the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, the PDP has looked to be staring at the real prospect of defeat, as a united opposition looked to ride the momentum in the last few weeks.

The PDP has never lost an election since 1999 when Nigeria returned to civilian rule.

A delay allows it much-needed time to recoup and get out more finances to its campaign, backed by the major advantage that African parties get from incumbency. J

onathan will welcome the prospect of more time to get out his message, which has struggled to gain traction on the back of insecurity and the perceived failure of his administration to rein in corruption.

The delay also buys his government time to make political capital out of a renewed military offensive by the army, should it win, against Boko Haram insurgents in the north-east.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

The poll manager has in recent months put on a brave face despite a raft of challenges, and while postponing the election, insisted jt would still have been ready to run a ballot on February 14.

INEC had also backed a credible vote despite hundreds of thousands being displaced by the armed conflict in the north-east and the possibility of holding a vote in militant-held areas dim.

But talk over postponing the election had centred on millions of undistributed electors’ cards. The body will now have more time to distribute the remaining third of voters cards, having so far give out 45.8 million of the country’s registered 68.8 million electors.

The delay will allow it further put its house in order, with concern over missed vendor deadlines.

INEC can also wait out and see what comes out of the new military offensive against Boko Haram.

LOSERS

All Progressives Congress (APC)

It is hard to see the delay as anything else but a setback to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), which has mounted a major and united challenge to the PDP.

The party is said to be keenly studying what a delay means for it, having strongly opposed any delay.

The APC, which has fronted former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate, has repeatedly accused the government of trying to scupper the vote and APC national chairman John Odigie-Oyegun called the delay “highly provocative”, blasting it as “a major setback for Nigerian democracy”.

He added: “I strongly appeal to all Nigerians to remain calm and deist from violence and any activity which will compound this unfortunate development.”

However, the party could also benefit from a failure by the army to put down the campaign against the militants, further adding tailwind to its message of PDP-led insecurity, while the bringing of more voters onboard by INEC could also be a net-gain for it.

The international Community

The United States voiced its strong concerns over the delay, saying it was deeply disappointed with the turn of events. Secretary of State John Kerry, who visited the country two weeks ago, warned the Nigerian government against using “security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process”.

Kerry has said one of the best ways to beat Boko Haram is by holding credible elections on time.

Election monitors were also already on the ground and will have to redefine their missions.

The AU is also readying a regional force, but may have to await the outcome of the current offensive, especially as the bloc wants the UN and EU to pick up the tab.

Civil society groups will also be dismayed by the delay, although this depends on where they sit.

Investors

Uncertainty has never been a favourite of many investors, and the delay will only extend the agony over Africa’s largest and most populous economy, in addition to leaving the impression of an Africa that is rudderless, as South Africa battles its own set of problems.

UNKNOWN

Boko Haram

The brutal Islamists have this year turned up the intensity of their campaign, as they look to undermine Nigeria’s democratic process, which they view as un-Islamic.

With the army citing a new campaign to defeat it, a delay may work against the militant group given the sense of purpose and the overwhelming political stakes riding on the success of the offensive.

Regional countries have also joined in the campaign, leaving a lot stacked up against the militants.

However, the delay may also give it more time to further undermine the election. The incentive is big: winning, or just standing its ground would further win it more political—and military—points, leaving it even stronger in the interim.

The Nigerian army

The reputation of Nigeria’s poorly-equipped and unmotivated army has taken a hit in recent months, amid reports of mutiny and refusing to engage Boko Haram, including instances where soldiers abandoned posts and fled in the face of the militants.

While the “six-week” timing of the new multinational campaign is certainly suspect—it has had six years to defeat Boko Haram—striking a decisive blow would help restore its pride as West Africa’s most powerful force.

A loss or failure to push back Boko Haram would have just the opposite effect, and given the country’s history, there’s no telling how it will react to a negative outcome, especially with INEC citing the army’s refusal to provided security because it is engaged in the north-east as a reason for the delay.

Ordinarily, this role falls on, among others, the police.


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