There is no monolithic North in the current political reality in Nigeria, just as you do not have a united South. To arrive at a conclusion of the likely winner by summing the total registered voters in the 3 geopolitical zones in the North, is political naivety to say the least.

North Central States of Kogi, Plateau, Benue, Nasarrawa, Niger and Kwara, do not vote like the North West States of Kano, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kastina, Jigawa and Kebbi. Also, states like Taraba, Adamawa and Gombe hardly vote in the same manner as Borno, Yobe and Bauchi, even though they are in the North East. To assume that APC has the structure and popularity to win in the NC States of Benue, Kogi, Plateau, and Nasarawa will be taking ones luck too far. And any calculation that envisages a victory for APC in Taraba and Gombe is at variance with political reality in Nigeria. APC is popular mainly in the core north (ie North West), but PDP will still make a strong impact in Kebbi, Zamfara and Kaduna States. Besides Edo and Rivers States, there is no other state in the South East and South South that APC can win 25% of the votes. South West is the main theatre of the war at the moment. The huge population of non-Yoruba people in Lagos State will have a huge impact in who wins the state. Ondo and Ekiti will go the way of PDP, while Osun will go to APC. It is the outcome of the contest in Ogun, Lagos and Oyo that will determine which party will win in the SW and that is key in this election.

GEJ till 2019!!!

just wait till after the election #teamjonathan

Sai buhari