Buhari has 60 percent edge over Jonathan, says Eurasia Group

The Eurasia Group has predicted that General Muhammadu Buhari has a 60 percent probability of beating President Goodluck Jonathan in this month’s election.

Africa practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet writes today that while Jonathan was a favourite in the March 28 election, representing a victory for the country’s Christian south, the electoral map is tilting to Buhari in swing regions in the southwest and middle of the country.
Buhari would be a technocrat, and investors could expect business-oriented policies, de Pontet writes, but Eurasia Group remains neutral on Nigeria for the long term, given downside risks to oil production and challenges to policy implementation. He adds:
Nigeria’s Peoples Democratic Party won the south in 2011 elections.

“The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

“Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide …

While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election …”
A local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, gives Buhari a 58 percent to 32 percent lead in Lagos state, where Jonathan won the last election. Eurasia Group thinks Jonathan’s approval rating is below the 40 percent threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected.

“Despite some important military gains against the terror group, Boko Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. But it is not clear … that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors.”

Jonathan is likely to contest an unfavorable outcome, especially a close election, and that could mean protracted violence.
“The reason we aren’t upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate.

“His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan’s home region) that targets the oil sector.
Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats …“

http://www.newsdesk.ng/news/2015/03/13/the-eurasia-group-has-predicted-that-apcs-muhammadu
http://newmail-ng.com/new/buhari-has-60-percent-edge-over-jonathan-says-eurasia-group/
http://abusidiqu.com/buhari-now-likely-to-win-28-march-presidential-election-eurasia-group/

Who be dis group?


What kind of edge are they talking about? Is it the one I usually see on my phone when the network is bad?




Do the maths Buhari cannot win this election.




#GEJ till 2019.

pekeyim:
Who be dis group?


What kind of edge are they talking about? Is it the one I usually see on my phone when the network is bad?




Do the maths Buhari cannot win this election.




#GEJ till 2019.

Lol. The same group had earlier predicted a landslide in favour of GEJ back in August 2014. But evidently they've seen that "Levels don Change".

My group also predicts Gej victory. Unfortunately, the word "group" invalidated the prediction as majority votes will ever carry the day!

Igwe9:
My group also predicts Gej victory

Who dash monkey banana. And what group is that? 'Igwe chop GEJ Egunje' group, abi na TAN?

LoL, who are eurasia? Rubbish countries in it can't be compared to nigeria xcept their head which is Russia, others there are kazakstan and other irellevant ones, smh

Apc n propaganda are like bread and butter

WisdomFlakes:


Who dash monkey banana. And what group is that? 'Igwe chop GEJ Egunje' group, abi na TAN?

lol, group thing na! what again? na we get our mouths, FOI things, GEJ I hail o! it's working

ishiamu:
LoL, who are eurasia? Rubbish countries in it can't be compared to nigeria xcept their head which is Russia, others there are kazakstan and other irellevant ones, smh

Apc n propaganda are like bread and butter

You are too dull. Eurasia group is a think tank/ Political consultancy and has nothing to do with the Eurasian continent

Missy89:


You are too dull. Eurasia group is a think tank/ Political consultancy and has nothing to do with the Eurasian continent

Keep deceiving your self