Even though the army has been making strides to stop Boko Haram advances, election and post-election violence could end up splitting the country into two and result in the formation of a shadow government. For its part, the APC has already made threats of forming it’s own parallel government, should they deem the elections to lack credibility and be mired with electoral fraud. According to the Constitution, such an outcome would fall nothing short of a military coup against the elected government.

A “one country two presidents” solution is not unfounded. The Ivory Coast’s contested 2010 presidential elections, which ended in the formation of two governments, plunged the country into a 4 month long civil war, claiming the lives of 3000. Unlike Nigeria, the Ivory Coast had no aggressive militancy wreaking havoc across several of its states and neither does it have the same north/south, Christian/Muslim divide that makes every conflict take sectarian lines.

The escalation of violence by the population is also seen as an increasing threat, with some analysts concerned that should supporters of either candidate feel the elections were unfairly conducted, a disaster scenario of ethnic killings in both the north and south could erupt. Violence following the 2011 elections resulted in the deaths of 800 people, the displacement of 65,000 and the burning of Christian churches and schools.

Electoral fraud and violent outbreaks during the elections will risk tearing Nigeria apart, resulting in the formation of dual political system in a country that requires above all else unity and strong governance. Already plagued with thousands of deaths due to the Boko Haram insurgency, ethnic and religious violence among the population will likely increase the strength of the terrorist group and render the already under pressure army unable to contain the violence on all fronts. The formation of a shadow government will similarly undermine efforts to put an end to Boko Haram and will indicate weakness on the government’s behalf to ensure the stability and safety of the population, country and the region as a whole. A parallel government, which won’t have “the instrumentality to execute the powers and functions of government defeats the entire essence of government”.

The irony of a country risking destruction not only by an ISIS-affiliated group, but by the vanity of power-hungry political figures, which in the face of humanitarian disasters scheme and plot ways to win over power, should not be lost on us.