By what is obtainable southwest will determine who wins this election .

South South 90% PDP APC 10%
South East 90% PDP APC 10%
North Central 55% PDP Apc 45%
North East 35% PDP APC 65%
North west APC 90% APC 10%
South West The Determinant Factor

If you use inec figure on this percentage, if South west 50% PDP and 50% APC Jonathan has won in About 12 percent Margin
The only way GEJ can Loose this election is South west APC 70% and PDP 30%. This is the final result.

Nice analysis. THIS EVEN LOOKS MORE OBJECTIVE THAN THAT OF PUNCH.

Abegi park well jare. What's the noise about sw votes anyway. Even if GEJ did not get a single vote from the sw during the last elections, he would have still won the elections.

Every zone is important during this election. No one zone is better than the other

Mind you it is the candidate with highest no of votes cast that wins the elections and not one with with highest zone won or highest states won.A candidate can win in fewer states and still win the elections

chukwudi44:
Mind you it is the candidate with highest no of votes cast that wins the elections and not one with with highest zone won or highest states won.A candidate can win in fewer states and still win the elections

constitutionally you must win 23 state of the federation.

The problem I've just realized i that SW has the lowest PVC collection rates and might also present the lowest turnout rates in which case might not be too much of a determining factor.

Turnout rates would be the greatest determinant of the election results. If turnout rates in the North east and Northwest trump turnout rates in the south east and south south the GMB gets it, if its vice versa GEJ gets it.

SW is recording an average of 60% collection rates where the rest of the country scores above 80%.

denko:
constitutionally you must win 23 state of the federation.

Wrong its actually 24 state, plus fct

denko:
constitutionally you must win 23 state of the federation.

Bros it did not say win.it only said secure 25% in 2/3 states plus the Fct.Buhari might likely win more states but still lose the election.

While GEJ is sure of securing 40% in supposedly apc strongholds like Lagos and kadunna, Buhari would struggle to secure even 20% in any states of the se/ss

Like Husband like Wife: As NUC declares Ashia
Buhari’s Certificate Fake.
The National Universities Commission (NUC) has
disclosed that, contrary to claims in some quarters,
any certificate obtained from the Kaduna Satellite
Campus of the Ambrose Alli University is fraudulent
and a scam.
This is coming on the heels of her husband’s
certificate scandal
Buhari had claimed his academic qualifications
were with the military board but the military came
forward to say he lied . Currently there are a couple
of perjury cases against Buhari in courts.
Deputy Director Press of the NUC, Ibrahim Yakassai
disclosed, this to The Nigerian Times when our
reporter called to confirm the status of the institution
and certificates earned from it.
He said: “It is fraudulent and a scam. There is no
such thing like Ambrose Alli University, Kaduna
Study Center. The NUC is not aware of such.”
The Nigerian Times recalls that the Sunday Trust
Newspaper in the story, ‘Now, Hajiya Aisha Buhari
steps out’, published January 18, 2015 had reported
that the beautiful wife of General Muhammadu
Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All
Progressives Congress (APC), had bagged a
Bachelor of Arts degree from the Ambrose Alli
University, Ekpoma (Kaduna satellite campus). She
later proceeded, based on the same degree, to
obtain a Master’s degree in International Affairs and
Strategic Studies from the Nigerian Defence
Academy, Kaduna.
The NUC in a directive in 2001, under former
Executive Secretary Peter Okebukola to all Vice-
Chancellors, had directed all university satellite
campuses to be shut down. While most Universities
complied, few others were adamant, leading to
another directive by the present Executive
Secretary Professor Julius Okojie, to re-affirm the
initial directive that all universities in the country
running external campuses (satellite campuses) be
shut down.
A satellite campus, according to the NUC guidelines
on which basis the illegal ones were closed down,
“must not be more than 200 kilometres from the
main campus,” “must not be located in a state
outside the state in which the main campus is
located,” “must have staff of the satellite campus
directly or indirectly appointed by the main campus
in line with laid down academic standards.”
According to Sunday Trust, Mrs. Buhari enrolled in
the undergraduate programme of the Ambrose Alli
University and received lectures at its Leventis
Building satellite campus, Kaduna.
The Newspaper also reported that she holds a
National Certificate in Education (NCE) from the
National Teachers Institute (NTI) alongside a
Diploma in Beauty Therapy at the Carlton Institute of
Beauty Therapy, Windsor, in the United Kingdom
and a certificate course from the French Beauty
School, Esthetique Academie Dubai. She is a
member of the United Kingdom’s Vocational
Training and Charitable Trust and the International
Health and Beauty Council.
Speaking to The Nigerian Times, a former
coordinator of one the satellite campuses of the
university who asked to be anonymous, said while
some campuses were able to insert records of
some students of the satellite campuses into the
general students’ records at the main campus,
others were just issued certificates without
recourse to the parent school.
He said while the certificates of those whose
records where successfully entered into the
school’s main record could claim some level of
validity, the others remain invalid.
He said: “The campuses started in 1998 and were
all officially closed in 2002.
“Some of the campuses at the earlier stages would
get someone from the main campus in Ekpoma to
invigilate the examinations and under some
arrangements would then register the students’
particulars in the record of the university. After this,
those certificates got a value of validity.
“However, after sometime some centers started
issuing certificates to their students in the name of
the parent university without any recourse to record
keeping and so when employers or schools of post
graduate studies contacted Ekpoma for verification,
the records of most of them were not found. These
developments finally led to the NUC’s hammer on
those centers.”
Every effort to get responses from the Registrar of
the University, Mr. Ojo Maliki and Public Relations
Officer of the university, proved abortive. While
mails where not responded to, calls from our
reporter were treated with rude and evasive
responses. A University officer, who craved
anonymity, told this newspaper that Edo being an
APC state, the authorities are extremely careful not
to get caught in Nigeria’s fractious political party
rivalries.