Four Days To The March 28 Presidential Elections Major Opinion Polls And Political Analysis Give The Poll To PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan Ahead Of APC’s Muhammadu Buhari
Paul Yovo
President Goodluck Jonathan is as good as re-elected if surveys from some major international political risk analysis agencies and surveys are relied upon. According to the surveys, some of them conducted before the botched February 14 date, Jonathan will beat his opposition rival, Muhammadu Buhari, by a wider margin. The surveys from Eurasia Group, Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates and Diaspora Nigeria Nationals Network (DNNet), all returned positives for Jonathan in the March 28 presidential election. Commenting on its Top Risks 2015 index, Eurasia Group, in an analysis signed by its President, Ian Bremmer, and chairman, Cliff Kupchan, and published on January 5, 2015, stated that “President Goodluck Jonathan is likely to secure re-election on 14 February”. Eurasia Group has not issued any other known analysis report to counter this. However, looking at Nigeria as high political risk country in 2015, Eurasia Group noted that “during his second term, he will face a more aggressive opposition and polarized political environment, making reforms and fiscal policy adjustments more difficult as lower oil revenues limit the government’s options.” It further concluded that “Sluggish growth and mounting popular demands were not enough to displace ruling party candidates in Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, and Turkey, and are unlikely to do so in Nigeria in 2015.” In its survey, the Diaspora Nigeria Nationals network (DNNet) gave Jonathan a lead ahead of Buhari with a wide margin.
In its index of analysis however, Buhari scored major points only on corruption and security indexes but Jonathan led on all other fronts. DNNet, which said it “is an independent organization established to champion the causes and interests of Diaspora Nigerians and our underserved citizens in Nigeria” published its survey findings at www.dnnet.org According to the group which said its focus “is on good governance and facilitating an enabling environment to harness our Diaspora resources to develop Nigeria and enhance our people’s quality of life,” Jonathan will beat Buhari without fail. In a statement on its poll, DNNet said: “a Nigeria nation-wide poll conducted from March 8-16, 2015, for the Diaspora Nigeria Nationals Network (DNNet) USA, shows that in a headto- head matchup the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leads the challenger Retired General Muhammadu Buhari, of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by 8 points. “The PDP ticket of Goodluck Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo gets support from 53 percent of registered voters and the APC ticket of Buhari and running mate Prof. Yemi Osinbajo gets 45 percent. When the field of contestants is expanded to include other candidates the margin widens to 10 points, 52-42 percent in favor of the PDP ticket, indicating that in a two-way race the APC ticket picks up the anti-Jonathan support and loses them when other choices are provided. “The PDP ticket surprisingly, seems to be buoyed mostly by the perception that they are better equipped for changing the fundamentals of the Nigeria state based on the convocation of the National Conference, by President Jonathan.
When asked who will be best for bringing change, the PDP ticket gets 58 percent while the APC ticket gets 37 percent. The PDP ticket is also preferred on education 57-35 percent and has an insignificant lead (within the margin of error) on who is better for the economy, with 45-42 percent. “However on who does better for fighting corruption, ensuring security, the APC ticket leads by 8 (53-45) and 5 (51-46) percent respectively. When it comes to likeability, the PDP ticket also was preferred 56-35 percent. Most can relate to the life story of Jonathan and not so much with Buhari. When asked to describe both candidates with one word, for Jonathan the two top descriptions were weak and honest. For Buhari they were dictator and privileged. On which of the candidates would you like to invite to your social event or have a drink with, the PDP ticket was preferred by 61-37 percent. “A subgroup analysis of the survey reveals that the PDP ticket leads in the South-East zone 77-15; South-South zone 69-22; South West zone 50-41 and North Central zone 51-43. Conversely, the APC ticket strong showings were in the North-West and North-East where they lead by 651-34 and 55-44 percentage points respectively. “While the state of the Nigerian economy and the nation’s direction continue to pose significant obstacles for the President Jonathan, the poll points to even steeper challenges for Buhari, including concerns about his qualifications to run for president, his health status and religious views. “The PDP appears to have done a better job defining Buhari, turning the election from a referendum to a choice,” says Doug Schulz, the pollster, who led this survey project. Also Commenting on the poll Dr. Daniel Udia, the Executive Director of the Diaspora organization that commissioned the survey said “I believe the money advantage, the incumbency factor and the postponement of the election may have helped the PDP ticket a lot more. It also didn’t help the APC ticket that their candidate took time off the campaign trail, allowing the PDP to define him as old, sick and unfit to govern a complex country like Nigeria.
Although this is not a done deal by any means, the unknown factors being the newly introduced permanent voter’s card and who shows up and votes.” DNNet said “the poll was conducted from March 8-16, 2015 among 2,100 randomly selected registered voters (including 1835 cell phoneonly respondents and the rest through paper survey), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus (+/-) 3.5 percentage points”. Also in its own survey, Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates gave the presidential election to Jonathan with a victory margin of about 13 percent. The group said it used both ‘Monkey Survey’ and ‘Political Risk Index’ to forecast the election, while informing journalists in Abuja, that Buhari will lose the election “if everything remains constant”.
Vice President, West Africa of Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly, Mr. O.C Vince, explained to journalists that the firm has no partisan interest in the outcome of the election but conducted the survey because of the global interest the election has generated. “Many people around the world, including political leaders and investors are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed”, Vince said, adding that the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) appears to be facing its toughest challenge in 16 years and hoped the efforts they have made will help deepen and strengthen democracy in Nigeria. “We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North East, North West, North Central, South West, South East and South- South. The sampled population were asked three questions centering on human rights, the economy and security: “Between General Buhari and President Goodluck Jonathan, who would best protect the fundamental human rights of Nigerians? While APCs Buhari scored 30% – President Jonathan scored 70%. The electoral map is tilted more favourably towards President Jonathan in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, now adding to his advantage in Niger Delta and South East while Buhari did well in his core northern base where he still has large cult followership. The survey also asked respondents that “between the elections holding in February 14th as previously scheduled and March 28th as postponed which date do you feel safer to participate in the presidential election”? According to it, “35 percent thinks the election should have been held on February 14 as scheduled while 65 percent thinks the March 28 new date is safer and more secured.