Fellow NLers,

Based on my extensive research on the March 28 election, my permutations are strongly pointing towards a runoff election that APC will likely boycott. As it stands, I am projecting GMB at 49.81% and GEJ at 49.62% with a differential of 61,820 votes mostly due to the high level of turnout that the SE and SS regions will record. Already we are seeing Akpabio's superb turnout of 98% in his district in Akwa Ibom.

Ladies and gentlemen, as if this were not the most expensive presidential election in WORLD HISTORY...it is only about to get worse.

God save Nigeria.

B

You have spoken well but sadly u spoilt it with the "GET WORSE PART"

Pls stay optimistic, theres power in the tongue!

SS/SE always having 'high turnout'

God dey!

babasoji:
Fellow NLers,

Based on my extensive research on the March 28 election, my permutations are strongly pointing towards a runoff election that APC will likely boycott. As it stands, I am projecting GMB at 49.81% and GEJ at 49.62% with a differential of 61,820 votes mostly due to the high level of turnout that the SE and SS regions will record. Already we are seeing Akpabio's superb turnout of 98% in his district in Akwa Ibom.

Ladies and gentlemen, as if this were not the most expensive presidential election in WORLD HISTORY...it is only about to get worse.

God save Nigeria.

B

GEJ might even win outright.

Tell these to the. Aves!
Can't you see the handwriting on the wall?

I already prophesied about a Run off where Thief-nubu will finally sell out Buhari candidature to PDP in exchange for oil block and dollars, just watch and see horse trading in the coming days among governors and other stakeholders they will all betray Buhari during the run off.

Run off oo...run on buhari is d next president

Tell us more on the modus of your research,data,statistics,analysis and sources of data!

babasoji:
Fellow NLers,

Based on my extensive research on the March 28 election, my permutations are strongly pointing towards a runoff election that APC will likely boycott. As it stands, I am projecting GMB at 49.81% and GEJ at 49.62% with a differential of 61,820 votes mostly due to the high level of turnout that the SE and SS regions will record. Already we are seeing Akpabio's superb turnout of 98% in his district in Akwa Ibom.

Ladies and gentlemen, as if this were not the most expensive presidential election in WORLD HISTORY...it is only about to get worse.

God save Nigeria.

B

Why do you think APC will boycott run off? Run off doesn't favor PDP because the whole nation will focus attention on SE.

What run off?

Buhari will have majority votes and at least 25% in 26 States. That is all he needs to win. When are done manipulating the figures, they will announce Buhari the winner.

There will never be a run off
In a situation where both candidates have the same number of votes which is nearly impossible
there is going to be fresh election
Run off ko ran off n
Buhari will surely wins

Sorry to say but even if Rivers State votes are cancelled Buhari will still secure a clear victory. Please congratulate Jonathans friends and wife for all the insults hurled at the 'north'.

#change
#GMB
#APC

jega has said it b4 dat nigeria isnt ripe fo a run off

sosanova:
I already prophesied about a Run off where Thief-nubu will finally sell out Buhari candidature to PDP in exchange for oil block and dollars, just watch and see horse trading in the coming days among governors and other stakeholders they will all betray Buhari during the run off.

You don't know what you're saying...there's nothing Jonathan will give that will make Tinubu betray Buhari...it has gone beyond Tinubu alone...so many stakeholders in APC so Tinubu alone can't call d shots...it won't even make any sense for them to go ds close to winning & now dash it on d hopes of oil blocks when GEJ has already disappointed them b4...so stop dreaming bro...na fight to finish oh

PaulSteve:
Tell us more on the modus of your research,data,statistics,analysis and sources of data!

It's common sense. APC won Ogun with about 100k. Ondo is almost canceled out, as in 50/50. PDP won Ekiti with about 60k. So Ogun cancels out Ekiti. Three states gone in the SW. APC will win Lagos, Oyo and Osun. Let say they manage to have a combined lead of 500k since the trun out is really low. A high turn out in two SE states with a poor showing for APC there can block that out. So overall, you see GEJ leading from the SW/SE collation.

What is happening in SW is the same thing happening in NC. Buhari will win but only marginally. And let say the marginal lead also manage to blunt out another lead from SE. What's left is votes from NE/NW which will still be high because of sheer population but will equally be matched by rigged SS votes. Akpabio is winning by about 400k in a senatorial district! Multiply that by three, that's about 1.2million lead for GEJ. Even if GMB wins kano and other states by a landslide, he can only blunt out few states in SS rigged votes.

Meanwhile, GEJ has 25% in 12 states of SW and NC, so also do Buhari. Add 11 states of SE/SS to that 12, GEJ has 25% in 23 states. You need 25% in 2/3 of 36 states and a simple majority. So GEJ realistically needs a 25% in just one core northern state to satisfy that requirement. That to me is not difficult to achieve in a state like Gombe and several others.

Buhari is not in danger of meeting 25% requirements too. 12 states in SW/NC plus that of Core NW/NE satisfy that requirements. So, technically, he doesn't "need" 25% from any states in SS/SE. That's why I believe there won't be a run-off. Both candidates can easily satisfy the minimum requirements. The real question is who has the highest votes?

A candidate with highest votes will be declared. If rigged votes in SS/SE are accepted, it's no brainer, GEJ will be declared. If some states are canceled or rescheduled, the election will most likely be declared inconclusive than a run-off.

it seems PDP is aware of this scenario that is why they forcefully pinned down Edo, Imo and Rivers where sitting governors could undercut their figures. Let all fingers be crossed.

There wont be any run off, runoff is not declared because of failure to achieve 50% o, since there are more than 2 candidates, it is a simple majority.that matters, even if it is 45% of votes

My projection tells me all the Magic numbers from the SS / SE states will most likely be neutralised with the margin votes of NW , and Bauchi state.

Akwa Ibom ---- Kano will deal

Delta ------- Bauchi

Crossriver ------Sokoto

Rivers ----- Jigawa

imo / Edo - Katsina

Ebonyi --- Kebbi

Enugu/Bayelsa - Kaduna

Anambra/ Abia - Zamfara.

That is where the story ends for PDP,

APC will have like 500,000- 700.000 margin in sw, and will also have close to 1 million margins in NC.

Of the 6 North east states, excluding bauchi, APC will garner close to another 1 million margins from the NE.

I expect a minimum of 3 million votes difference

babasoji:
Fellow NLers,


God save Nigeria.

B

Take a look at this and have a rethink.

raumdeuter:


SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

Finally, APC will have at least 70% from the remaining NC and SW combined.

whoever wins, let peace reign.

emiye:
There wont be any run off, runoff is not declared because of failure to achieve 50% o, since there are more than 2 candidates, it is a simple majority.that matters, even if it is 45% of votes

My projection tells me all the Magic numbers from the SS / SE states will most likely be neutralised with the margin votes of NW , and Bauchi state.

Akwa Ibom ---- Kano will deal

Delta ------- Bauchi

Crossriver ------Sokoto

Rivers ----- Jigawa

imo / Edo - Katsina

Ebonyi --- Kebbi

Enugu/Bayelsa - Kaduna

Anambra/ Abia - Zamfara.

That is where the story ends for PDP,

APC will have like 500,000- 700.000 margin in sw, and will also have close to 1 million margins in NC.

Of the 6 North east states, excluding bauchi, APC will garner close to another 1 million margins from the NE.

I expect a minimum of 3 million votes difference

Point of correction: Kano alone neutralises, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, and Cross rivers put together.

Hence your estimated minimum should be even more.

Maple:


Point of correction: Kano alone neutralises, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, and Cross rivers put together.

Hence your estimated minimum should be even more.

it might not come as straightforward as that.

Kano has 4 million PVCs collected, if we assume 2.4 million voters came out to vote, PDP has the strength to pick 500,000 APC 1,900,000


Margin is only 1.4 million voters. (1.9 -0.5). Akwaibom might try to claim 95% turnout and 99 % for GEJ, that is like the same 1.4 million.

Any voter turnout of 70% or more from the SS will be rejected. You think INEC is stupid? Imagine having turnout higher than the President's Bayelsa or higher than Buhari's Katsina. That is where their overzealousness in rigging will undo them.

lebete3000:


You don't know what you're saying...there's nothing Jonathan will give that will make Tinubu betray Buhari...it has gone beyond Tinubu alone...so many stakeholders in APC so Tinubu alone can't call d shots...it won't even make any sense for them to go ds close to winning & now dash it on d hopes of oil blocks when GEJ has already disappointed them b4...so stop dreaming bro...na fight to finish oh

They are still living the 2011 dream........
Oil block ko, Oil concrete nii

Swizdoe:


They are still living the 2011 dream........
Oil block ko, Oil concrete nii

OP, wake up and smell the coffee. It's daybreak.

GMB is wining straight in a landslide.

Inec is not the same thing as nairabet merrybet and co.......
All this permutations are story for the gods.....
Run off ko, run on nii

I just laugh all this sleepless fellows in nairaland.

emiye:
it might not come as straightforward as that.

Kano has 4 million PVCs collected, if we assume 2.4 million voters came out to vote, PDP has the strength to pick 500,000 APC 1,900,000


Margin is only 1.4 million voters. (1.9 -0.5). Akwaibom might try to claim 95% turnout and 99 % for GEJ, that is like the same 1.4 million.

Turnout in Kano was very High and I see Buhari getting 80% of votes of the turnout

SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

raumdeuter:


Turnout in Kano was very High and I see Buhari getting 80% of votes of the turnout

SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

Naturally, i try to stay pessimistic in a projection i have a bias for to keep things in balance. if you observe so far, upon sw poor pvc collection , voters turnout is on the avg. less than 50% in the SW.

And a reasonable turnout should be 60% anywhere, take note NW + NE actually has 24 million PVCs collected.

Both parties will satisfy the 25% requirement. This is a close and keenly contested battle ,just like a prophet predicted that it is like battle between a tiger and a lion. One thing is sure ,the winning margin will be very marginal due to the high figures pdp has gotten in the south west ,if apc had won with a ratio of 80 to 90% then ,even pdp would have started congratulating apc . But ondo is almost 50 50,ekiti has gone to pdp ,osun is a close call and it can end with 55 45 in favour of apc . Definitely pdp will get some figures from the north but it seems gej too isn't expecting much from there and that seems to be why he concentrated on breaking the south west votes and I think he succeeded. The only way for buhari to win now is to clear the whole northern region with 80% to 90%winning majority. To be candid the votes from the south west apc states for pdp may come back to haunt buhari. Whatever the results ,I forsee a dirty and tight legal battle at the end of this election. I won't be surprised if the court will be the final determinant factor because definitely this elections results will go to court .

sosanova:
I already prophesied about a Run off where Thief-nubu will finally sell out Buhari candidature to PDP in exchange for oil block and dollars, just watch and see horse trading in the coming days among governors and other stakeholders they will all betray Buhari during the run off.

Remember you guys started predicting betrayal right from the APC convention.

sosanova:
I already prophesied about a Run off where Thief-nubu will finally sell out Buhari candidature to PDP in exchange for oil block and dollars, just watch and see horse trading in the coming days among governors and other stakeholders they will all betray Buhari during the run off.

Nigerians!