The euphoria among those who won the presidential election of 28 March must be ebbing, especially for those who are career politicians. They know that victory at the presidential and National Assembly elections was just half of the job. Yes, a philosopher attested to the fact that by the time the beginning is half-done, you have overcome the power of failure. Therefore, they might not have breasted the final tape but are closer to those who are licking the wounds of defeat yesterday. That is the difference between winning and losing.

This Saturday, the die will be cast again. Twenty-nine state governorship seats will be up for grabs. In many states, the contest is between two fresh contestants since many of the incumbents are on their second and final terms. While the prize is the same across the 29 states, the stakes are certainly higher in a few others. It is a contest between the incumbents or in some cases, godfathers, who want to protect their territories and rampaging challengers who want to alter the status quo. It is a battle between apostles of continuity and those who are messengers of change.

Ironically, the cheerleaders of change two weeks ago are now the choristers of continuity in Lagos State. That is the complexity of the nation’s political setting that its defiance of logic does not seem to surprise many people any more. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), notwithstanding its metamorphosis, has been in power in the state since 1999. While it always campaigned, prior to the presidential contest, that the reign of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the federal level has been “nothing but a disaster”, its own superintending over Lagos has been a massive blessing for the state even though there might have been a mismatch between the revenue generated by the state and the projects that it has executed.

This is obviously relative, depending on which side of the partisan divide you find yourself. To the APC, there is the need to allow the party to continue to be in charge of affairs in the state called Centre of Excellence so it could continue the “good works” it has been doing for the past 16 years. It must be admitted that the state has always been a walkover for APC since 1999. But even the most ardent of the party’s supporters will be economical with the truth and standing logic on its head if the party says it is going into this election with the same arrogant confidence of previous elections.

For the first time, the almost vice-like grip of a certain Bola Tinubu over the politics of the state is under serious threat. The panic mode has been activated and everyone connected with the positive fortunes of the party is working the mills to ensure that they are not swept away this time around. The alarm bell is ominously ringing. And the tone it is oozing out is discomforting to the chieftains of the party. But the question is how it came to this pass.

Prior to the presidential election, no one gave the PDP much of a chance in Lagos. But when the party polled over 45 per cent of the total votes cast in the presidential polls, polling well over 632,327 votes to APC’s 792,460 votes, the APC suddenly realised that it had a battle on its hands. The PDP also won five House of Representatives seats in the state, so APC has its work cut out for it if it must retain its stranglehold on Lagos. And with the Igbo population in the state stubbornly refusing to kowtow to the line of the APC, the governorship election is anybody’s for the taking on Saturday.

Another state where the stakes are equally high is Rivers State where the outgoing governor and APC financier, Rotimi Amaechi, will have to prove to his political associates in the APC that he is firmly in charge of politics in the state. If he had this mindset and has been feeding his friends in APC such, results of the presidential election in the state the last time out did not support this. His party was roundly trounced. He will have his hands full against Nyesom Wike, former Education Minister and the PDP gubernatorial candidate for the state. His own protégé and APC standard-bearer, Dakuku Peterside, will have to prove he can withstand the PDP hurricane in the state. Besides, most people in the state believe Amaechi betrayed his own kinsman with the way he worked against President Goodluck Jonathan in favour of President-elect Muhammdu Buhari.

In the North, former FCT Minister, Nasir el-Rufai, will be squaring up against the combined forces of Vice-President Namadi Sambo and incumbent governor, Ramalan Yero, in Kaduna. Although the state voted for Buhari at the presidential poll, it is left to be seen if Yero and Sambo have the arsenal to shake off the threat posed by el-Rufai who will be ridding on Buhari’s coattails.

In all, the gale of defections from PDP to the APC in some states since the outcome of the presidential election, coupled with the bandwagon effect, could see the PDP struggling to retain its majority control of the states in the country. In this respect, states like Taraba, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Plateau, Jigawa, Imo, Rivers, Benue, Gombe, Lagos, Oyo and Kaduna will be fiercely contested by the PDP and APC, while Kano, Katsina, Niger, Ogun, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi and Kwara, should be a walk in the park for the APC. On the other hand, PDP is certain to retain Abia, Enugu, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Ebonyi States.

Whichever way the pendulum swings after Saturday’s election, it is obvious that the paradigm would have shifted and some will be celebrating while others, as usual, will be licking their fingers. It is the nature of politics.





The Slugfest in the States

As governorship candidates prepare to slug it out in 29 states of the federation, THISDAY correspondents look at the factors at play in their states and the most likely contenders to emerge winners in the polls



Details follow after the pics.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/as-combatants-returnto-the-trenches/206406/

**yawns**
so boring...

Battle Royal in Lagos
Next Saturday will be decision time for voters in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos. Unlike the past governorship elections in the state, the race will be more keenly contested this time than any other in the state’s recent political history. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) set the tune for the race for Lagos House in January with the screening and certification of 15 candidates from different political platforms.

Of the 15 candidates seeking to succeed the incumbent governor, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, the race is practically between the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode, and his main challenger from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Jimi Agbaje. Other candidates are merely a third force put together in the state’s political space, which has been under the firm control of Bola Tinubu.

But the state’s ruling party, APC, will for the first time be facing the greatest challenge to its existence since Agbaje got the PDP’s governorship ticket. Agbaje did not get the ticket in a contest that was free of controversy, but with the backing of President Goodluck Jonathan, who believed that Agbaje’s popular support could help him realise his second term aspiration.

Despite the controversies that trailed his emergence, Agbaje has made considerable headway in the contest, which some analysts believe could truncate Tinubu’s 16-year stranglehold on the state. They premise this on the notion that Lagosians have finally got a dose of Tinubu-fatigue and would vote for a change in the status quo.

Specifically, Agbaje has targeted the large Igbo population in Lagos, allegedly promising them more slots in the State Executive Council (SEC), in contrast to the one slot allocated to them under the Fashola administration. His chances may have also been enhanced by the Oba of Lagos’ threat against Lagosians of Igbo origin in the state. He has also run an effective campaign criticising the policy missteps of the Fashola administration and picking holes in Ambode’s programmes.

However, Jonathan’s defeat in the presidential election has equally affected Agbaje’s chances. The fact that he will be effectively squaring up against Tinubu (not Ambode) who holds sway over the states, its structures and resources like a colossus will be no mean task. Besides, whereas Ambode is not an effective communicator like Agbaje and finds it difficult to articulate his policies, the Fashola factor in the state still gives him an edge over Agbaje. But the close contest in the presidential election between the APC and PDP, means that Ambode cannot take things for granted.

It remains to be seen if Lagos bucks the trend by finally aligning with the centre with an APC win or sticks with tradition by remaining in the hands of the opposition with a PDP win.
Verdict: Too close to call, but Ambode has the edge with Tinubu in the driver’s seat

In Enugu, Ugwuanyi Holds Sway
Ahead of Saturday’s Governorship/House of Assembly elections in Enugu State, the two leading political parties, the PDP and APC, have stepped up a gear with a view to out-witting each other during the polls. Though the victory of Buhari at the presidential election appears to have emboldened APC, the PDP in terms of popularity in the state is still miles ahead of the APC.

Specifically, the PDP candidate, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, who is also the Chairman of the House Committee on Marine Transport, has held vigorous campaigns across the 17 local government areas of the state. He has also held interactive sessions with different groups including women, youths, students, commercial drivers and labour unions. He has also reached out to all the major markets scattered across the state, securing endorsements in the process.

The level of his acceptability across various stakeholder groups in the state speaks volumes, as close political watchers maintain that his interpersonal relations as well as his welfare programmes have remained second to none. Also, the way he emerged as the party’s standard-bearer and the quality of stakeholders in the state supporting his candidacy has placed him in pole position against his opponent.

On the hand, the candidate of the APC, Mr. Okey Ezea, who is contesting for the governorship post for the third time, having contested in 2007 and 2011, is not leaving anything to chance as he is also taking advantage of his party’s victory at the federal level. Lately, he has anchored his campaigns on telling the people of Enugu that it would not be in their interest for the state to be in opposition. Another asset being paraded by the APC is its deputy governorship candidate, an internationally acclaimed attorney of over 20 years’ standing, Mrs. Juliet Ibekaku. The manner she has carried on during the campaigns has endeared APC to the people.
Despite their best efforts, Ugwuanyi, who has the full backing of incumbent Governor Sullivan Chime, will be difficult to beat.
Verdict: PDP’s Ugwuanyi will coast home to victory

Adamawa Enveloped in a Four-Horse Race
Until the just concluded presidential election, the Adamawa political landscape was dominated by the PDP. However going by the current political trends in the country, the race to the Government House, Yola, will be a lot tougher.

The governorship race in the state has been reduced to a four-horse contest between Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the PDP, Dr. Ahmed Modibbo of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), Mr. Markus Nathina Gundiri of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Senator Umar Jibrilla Bindow of the APC.

With the exception of Bidowo, all the other three candidates once belonged to the PDP before internal divisions in the aftermath of the party primaries, which produced Ribadu as the standard-bearer of the party led to the defection of Gundiri and Modibbo to SDP and PDM respectively.

Whilst Ribadu should be the candidate to beat going by his credentials and his hard posture against corruption which earned him accolades at home and in the global arena, PDP’s decision to sideline the incumbent governor of Adamawa, Bala Nggilari, in favour of the former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) chairman, internal squabbles within the PDP and the eventual defection of two of his opponents, would lead to the splitting of votes which should have gone to the PDP candidate. This, coupled with President Jonathan’s dismal handling of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east, was evident in the presidential election when Buhari scrapped a surprise win in Adamawa.

Like Ribadu, Bindow is not a newcomer into the mercurial game of numbers as he is the current senator representing Adamawa North Senatorial District. Bindow is a foxy politician who is said to have the shrewdness of selling himself to even his most ardent opponent, a feat he deployed in defeating two giants in the persons of Senator Mohammed Mana and former Governor Boni Haruna to clinch the senatorial seat of his constituency. Many say he used the same feat to trounce the preferred candidate of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in the run up to the October 11, 2014 by election which was truncated due to the court verdict that sacked former acting Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri.

Another factor Bindow has going for him is that he will be riding on the crest of Buhari’s win at the presidential poll and the change mantra, which he hopes will swing the votes in his favour.
But despite his bright chances and political sagacity, Bindow’s ambition has suffered some agonising setbacks following the intractable attrition and mutual suspicion that have hallmarked the relations between the two major camps in the APC, namely, the Nyako and Atiku camps. The intra-party wrangling between the two camps have impacted negatively on Bindow as he has been forced to single handedly fund his campaigns.

However the current victory of the presidential candidate of APC, coupled with the three senatorial seats and the six seats in the House of Representatives, may put Bindow in a vantage position.
Yet, Gundiri is another factor to watch in Saturday’s polls. He is also not a newcomer to the game, as he has taken a shot at the governorship post in the past. Similarly, if allegations that he enjoys the governor’s support turn out to be true, his chances will be further enhanced by the incumbency factor.

Be that as it may, the major obstacle that confronts Gundiri’s ambition may be attributed to the dearth of cash, as his campaign is devoid of the media razzmatazz that the other candidates who are believed to be more financially buoyant than him enjoy.
Of Adamawa’s “big four”, Modibbo is the only candidate who will be vying for the governorship post for the first time, as he has spent most of his adult life in the public service where he rose to the post of Executive Secretary of the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) before his retirement.

Although this is the first time he is participating in active politics, with his huge war chest, he has nurtured the PDM from grass to grace and has catapulted it to a party to reckon with in the state within a short space of time. He has equally been credited with carrying out the most energetic campaigns, especially in the electronic media, which has made him a household name.
Verdict: Too close to call

In Oyo, Ajimobi Looks Good to Break the Second Term Jinx
Since the results of the March 28 Presidential and National Assembly elections were made public by the INEC in Oyo State, the politics in the state has not been the same. With over 500,000 votes garnered by the APC, relative over 300,000 votes scored by PDP, all the parties have been forced to return to the drawing board.

While PDP, Labour Party (LP), Accord and SDP, which all surreptitiously worked for Jonathan, but performed abysmally in the National Assembly elections in which APC won all three senatorial seats and 12 House of Representatives seats, Governor Abiola Ajimobi who is seeking re-election for a second term, may well be the first Oyo man to break the jinx that has truncated the second term ambitions of all his predecessors.

Ajimobi is expected to coast home to victory on a number of factors, chief of which is Buhari’s win at the presidential poll. However, APC in the state does not totally agree that it was the Buhari tsunami that has sent jitters down the spine of Ajimobi’s opponents. To this school of thought, Ajimobi, rather than Buhari was the architect of the party’s success due to his reforms and stewardship.
In their assessment, former Governors Rashidi Ladoja (Accord) and Adebayo Alao-Akala (LP), Senator Teslim Folarin of the PDP, and Seyi Makinde of SDP, would have to put up a performance to wrest power from Ajimobi. To be fair, shortly after the announcement of the presidential poll results, there were talks of an alliance but no sooner than the talks began, suspicion, mistrust and lack of confidence set in, forcing the candidates to go their separate ways.
Verdict: APC’s Ajimobi should coast home to a comfortable win

It’s a Contest between Competence and Zoning in Plateau
Saturday’s governorship election is expected to be a straight contest between PDP’s Senator Gyang Pwajok and APC’s Simon Lalong. The other two governorship candidates of LP and African Democratic Congress (ADC), Mr Bagudu Hirse and Alhaji Ibrahim Musa Sabiu respectively, have no such significant following that could make any impact in the election.

Pwajok is considered a very competent candidate, who has all the requisite credentials to govern the state and do well. With his track record right from when he was a university lecturer, Director, Research and Documentation at the State Government House, Chief of Staff to Governor Jonah Jang, to when he became the senator, representing Plateau Northern zone in the National Assembly, Pwajok has presented an articulate, intelligent and focused facade. He is also charming and has the carriage and charisma of a people’s governor.

And this has been evident in his efforts aimed at the restoration of peace in the state. Severally, he had gathered the Hausa/Fulani and indigenes for peace talks. He believes that if a people live together and are formidable in unity, there is nothing they cannot achieve. This informed his campaign slogan “Greater Together”. Jang saw these qualities in him when he endorsed him to contest the governorship poll.

Ordinarily, Pwajok should have been adopted as the Plateau consensus candidate by all the political parties in the state, but for the sentiments of zoning and tribal differences. Some people in the state have stood against his candidature on the grounds that he is a kinsman of the outgoing governor. Though Pwajok is from Jos North Local Government Area while Jang is from Jos South, they are both of Berom ethnic stock. Accordingly, those opposed to his emergence have accused Jang of imposing Pwajok on Plateau people and have vowed to resist it. The development saw them defecting from the PDP to the APC, where they have pitched their tent to fight Jang.

Cashing in on this, the APC quickly produced a candidate from another zone of Plateau South in the person of Lalong, who now also has garnered sufficient support from aggrieved stakeholders in the state to give Pwajok a run for his money. As it stands, Lalong is expected to garner a large percentage of protest votes, which manifested in the presidential contest where PDP won in the state by a slim margin.

However, political analysts have projected victory for Pwajok, who they believe will deliver the dividends of democracy to the people when the chips are down. They believe that the PDP will have the day.
Verdict: PDP’s Pwajok will scrap through a victory

Tambuwal is Set to Take Sokoto
The battle for the soul of Sokoto State is between the Speaker of the House of Representatives and APC governorship candidate Aminu Tambuwal and PDP candidate Senator Abdallah Wali. The governorship poll is expected to be a tough duel between the duo due to the fact that both the PDP and APC have large supporters in the state.

Both candidates hail from Tambuwal Local Government Area of the state and the election, to a very large extent, is more or less a family affair. Tambuwal is married to the younger sister of Wali and will now battle his brother-in-law for the coveted seat. In fact, it was through Wali’s support that Tambuwal was able to rise to national prominence.

As the Senate leader, Wali introduced Tambuwal to national politics in 1999 and appointed him as his senior legislative assistant. That marked the beginning of Tambuwal’s entry into Abuja politics and by 2003, he was elected into the House of Representatives. He would go on to become the Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2011. But Wali also owes Tambuwal his nomination as Nigerian Ambassador to Morocco.

Other than name recognition, Tambuwal has the incumbency factor in his favour as Sokoto State Governor Aliyu Wamakko, who leads the APC, is fully in control of all the political structures across the 23 local government areas of the state. And since Wamakko enjoys significant support, Tambuwal’s pledge that he would continue with the people-oriented policies and programmes of Wamakko, would also win more support for him.

Another issue that may affect Wali’s bid stems from the internal divisions and acrimony in the PDP, following the primaries in the state. Although, two governorship aspirants in the PDP who lost the primaries – Sokoto Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari and Senator Abubakar Gada – have reconciled with Wali, party members are still not united and continue to hold a grudge against former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa for ensuring that Wali clinched the PDP ticket.

Another factor in Tambuwal’s favour is the fact that PDP, which won the state in 2007 and 2011, is no longer saleable in Sokoto due to the Buhari factor, religious and ethnic sentiments, and the Boko Haram insurgency.
If Tambuwal wins the governorship poll, he will be the first Speaker to succeed in his quest to become the chief executive of his state. Ghali Na’aba and Aminu Masari who tried before him in Kano and Katsina States, respectively, came up short.
Verdict: APC’s Tambuwal will win

Zamfara Will be Safe for Yari
In Zamfara, Governor Abdulaziz Yari of the APC will slug it out with the PDP candidate and former Governor Mamuda Shinkafi. Yari is seeking for a second term in office having defeated Shinkafi in the 2011 governorship poll. On the other hand, Shinkafi will be seeking revenge against Yari.

While people of Zamfara enjoyed relative peace under Shinkafi, the former governor was perceived as weak and lacking in courage to take hard decisions. It is believed that when he was in government, he had the machinery at his disposal to return the party to the government house but he allowed the then defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to defeat the PDP. In fact with his defeat, the PDP in Zamfara became weak and fragmented, and this has not been helped with the emergence of Shinkafi as the party’s governorship candidate after the acrimonious primaries.

Yari, on the other hand, is believed to have performed creditably, especially in massive construction of roads in urban and rural communities. However, the people of Zamfara are disenchanted with the leadership style of the governor, as they see him as a politician who is not in touch with the masses. They accuse him of being aloof and of turning himself into a demigod.

Also, Yari’s government is perceived to be soft on security issues. Any apathy towards Yari’s re-election bid may not be unconnected with the recurring attacks on some villages in Zamfara such as Er-Galadima, Dansadau, Kizara, Dangulbi, Dankurmi, Kabaro and Mada by cattle rustlers. The nefarious activities of the cattle rustlers has led to several deaths of innocent people and huge loss of cattle, as well as untold hardship to the affected communities.

However, pundits are of the opinion that with former Governor Ahmed Sani, who is widely regarded as a grassroots politician and leader of the APC in Zamfara backing Yari, it will be a Herculean task to stop the APC from winning election in the state.
Verdict: APC’s Yari will win

Bugudu is Odds on Favourite to Win in Kebbi
The Kebbi State governorship poll is a battle between the PDP candidate, Maj. Gen. Sarkin Yaki Bello (rtd), and that of the APC candidate, Senator Atiku Bagudu. Bagudu left PDP with eight members of the Kebbi State House of Assembly four months ago when it became glaring that Governor Saidu Dakingari would not favour him for the PDP governorship ticket.

Bello, a former commander of the Military Joint Task Force (JTF) in the Niger Delta during the height of militancy in the region, later became the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 82 Division, Enugu. Observers believe that Dakingari picked Bello because he has the ability to take his programmes to the next level. The governor is of the view that Bello will never compromise on merit if he is eventually elected by the good people of the state but will be a team player who will carry everybody along.

However, Dakingari’s popularity has been on the decline since he won his re-election bid in 2011, having alienated himself from the people and the chieftains of the PDP in the state. This may not be unconnected to Dakingari’s defeat in the March 28 senatorial elections. The fact that he ran on the PDP platform could not have helped much either.

His candidate, Bello, could be termed a political neophyte and will rely solely on the structures of the governor across the state. But he may find it really difficult to edge out the APC candidate who is highly experienced in politics and has the requisite resources to match him pound for pound. Besides, the wind of change and Buhari’s win in the presidential election are likely to dim his prospects.
Verdict: The odds favour APC’s Bagudu to win

Nasarawa in the Throes of an Epic Battle
The governorship contest in Nasarawa State between Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura of the APC who is seeking a second term, and his opponents – Dr. Yusuf Agabi of the PDP and Labaran Maku of the All Progressives Congress (APGA) – is as erratic, as it is fascinating. Al-Makura’s strength derives primarily from the fact that he was widely popular among the electorate, which had come to identify him as the change agent after 12 wasteful years of the PDP in the state, which resulted in the protest vote that led to the party’s ouster in 2011. His accomplishments in office have also been a huge boost to his ratings.

Yet, Al-Makura is blamed for not stemming the communal clashes in the state. Although the communal crises predate Al-Makura’s administration, the frequency of communal clashes has risen significantly under his watch, and he has been accused by the state House of Assembly of bringing mercenaries, who have so far overrun more than 50 communities and displaced thousands from their homes. As such, many voters see his ouster as a panacea for peace, having been accused of taking sides in the on-going face-off between the warring groups in the state. However, the failed impeachment attempt by the PDP-dominated state assembly has also aroused sympathy for Al-Makura.

Agabi, a seasoned administrator, who rose to the rank of Director in the Federal Civil Service, knows how to tackle youth restiveness, unlike Al-Makura who has only private sector experience. Moreso, Agabi’s promises on the agricultural sector, which his administration intends to focus on, could help to arrest growing unemployment in the state and youth restiveness.
However, the emergence of Maku as the candidate of APGA has altered the political landscape completely, which might never be the same again.

With Maku’s popularity and departure from the PDP when he failed to win the ticket of the party, this may split the votes in the governorship election. At the moment, APGA is the biggest and the most popular party in Nasarawa State with supporters cutting across the broad spectrum of society including youths, women, elderly, artisans, civil servants and academics to mention a few. However, the party failed to win seats in the National Assembly elections two weeks ago.

Given Al-Makura’ incumbency, Maku’s popularity and Agabi’s challenge, the race to the Lafia-based Government House will be hotly contested. However, since Al-Makura was the sole candidate of the defunct Congress for Peoples Change (CPC) that coalesced into the APC, who won his governorship election in 2011, coupled with Buhari’s win in the presidential election, this just might give Al-Makura the needed edge even though PDP won the state in the presidential election.
Verdict: Too close to call, but Al Makura has the edge

In Borno, Sheriff’s Loss of Influence is Shettima’s Gain
Though Senator Modu Sheriff stepped down as governor in 2011, his figure has continued to loom large in Borno State, enabling him to assume the position of leader of the PDP in the state, which has been bludgeoned by the Boko Haram insurgency. As such, he believes that the key to the Government House in Maiduguri is still his to give to whomever he anoints. In 2011, though many believed he manipulated the gubernatorial election, it was his candidate, Alhaji Kashim Shettima, who rode the crest to victory. But then, he was in the defunct ANPP, which coalesced into the APC and had controlled the state since 1999.

But four years after, the relationship has broken down irretrievably, forcing Sheriff to decamp from APC to PDP, and team up with his erstwhile adversaries in a bid to oust Shettima. Having joined the PDP, he anointed a new person in the form of Mohammed Imam, who was later substituted by Gambo Lawan following a court pronouncement. In fact after the disputed primaries of the PDP, both Imam and Lawan have continued to lay claims to the governorship ticket of the party. Thus it is unclear to the people of the state who the candidate of the PDP is.

Lawan, who has the nod to run on the platform of PDP against the incumbent Shettima of the APC, is respected across the country more than his home front. He had served as a Non Executive Director of SCOA Nigeria Plc and in the same position on Daar Communications Plc board. He was the Chairman, Board of Directors, Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Company Limited and is a former Council Chairman and former National Chairman of defunct Grassroots Democratic Movement (GDM). But because he was away from politics for so long, his influence had waned and the perception in the state is that he is working with APC from within the PDP to get Shettima re-elected.

As for Shettima, who came into the 2011 contest as a lightweight against Mohammed Goni, he has grown in stature and is now a silent, smooth and ruthless political strategist. Shettima has slowly grown into the new political leader in Borno, though he is self-effacing and tries not to throw his weight around. It may be said that Buhari’s larger than life image in the North had a huge impact on the presidential election in Borno, where he trounced Jonathan. Most of this credit has to go to Shettima.

Shettima has also gained the sympathy of the people who believe that he has handled the effects of the Boko Haram insurgency with compassion and maturity, and therefore should be allowed another four years in office. As it stands, it would take a miracle to unseat Shettima.
Verdict: APC’s Shettima will win by a landslide

Familiar Foes Set for a Rematch in Yobe
Governor Ibrahim Gaidam of APC and Adamu Maina Waziri of the PDP are no strangers to each other in the battle to occupy the Government House, Damaturu. They first contested for the governorship poll in 2007 when Gaidam was running on the joint ticket of Mamman Ali/Ibrahim Gaidam as a deputy governor on the platform of the defunct ANPP and Waziri was the gubernatorial candidate of the PDP for the second consecutive time. The battle then was won by the Gaidam team; what would have been a rematch in 2011 was thwarted by the controversial primaries of the PDP which threw up Senator Usman Albishir, who is now late.

It was rumoured that Waziri felt cheated that Albishir who was a stranger to the party was favoured over him in a manipulated primary, causing him to tactically withdraw his political support and PDP’s massive loss in all the elections to ANPP.
As the two protagonists, Gaidam and Waziri, prepare to square up again, this time, they will be involved in a straight contest to determine who should occupy the Government House from May 29, 2015. They are both seasoned administrators with the requisite experience to govern the state. But to the elite, Waziri is seen as the candidate who can take the state to greater heights. He has often said that his major priority, if elected, would be to ensure that the abandoned middle class and youth groups in the state are given topmost priority. He believes that Yobe has the potential to grow if the right leader is at the helm, and has often said: “No society will develop when the desired leadership is missing.”

Other than the elite, he is very popular in Potiskum, Fika, Nangere and the Jakusko axis among the masses. However, the rest of the state believes he has not invested enough in the electorate to win the gubernatorial race. The way he is perceived has not helped matters either, as he is considered strong willed and arrogant. He is feared by many in the state and his position against corruption, which is seen as the number one problem of Yobe, is popular but has brought him political traducers. Added to this is the fact that he is running on the platform of the PDP, which is not liked by a majority of the people in the state who blame Jonathan for allowing Boko Haram to run amuck in the state.

Gaidam, on the other hand, has performed below par and many thought that he would be denied the ticket for a re-run owing to the question mark that arose following the belief that he has governed the state for eight years. Gaidam, as deputy governor, became governor when his principal Ali died. But with the ticket in his kitty, he is certain to coast home to victory primarily because of the platform on which he is contesting and the Buhari factor.

Verdict: APC’s Gaidam, with a poor track record as governor, will win

Umahi Stamps His Presence in Ebonyi
If the speculation making the rounds in Ebonyi State that the state Governor, Chief Martin Elechi, has been forced to beat a retreat and decided to back the candidacy of the PDP governorship standard-bearer, Mr. Dave Umahi, is anything to go by, that means that the governor has finally realised that PDP is almost impossible to unseat in the state. Indeed, pundits had posited that whether Elechi, who was aggrieved when he failed to secure the ticket of the party for his preferred choice, former Health Minister, Prof. Onyebuchi Chuwku, worked against PDP or not, PDP would remain the party to beat in Ebonyi


With the political influence of Elechi diminished, having stepped on many toes, especially after his face-off with his deputy, Umahi, whom he did not want to succeed him, Umahi has taken control of the PDP. In so doing, he opened up the floodgates for political participation and emancipation by breaking the jinx of Elechi’s politics of imposition and autocracy.

Chief among Umahi’s opponents are Edward Nkwegu of the LP, Senator Julius Ucha of APC and Senator Anthony Agbo of APGA. Of the four candidates, Umahi and Nkwegu are considered the key contestants. However, with the recent victory of APC in the presidential election, Ucha is enthusiastic that his party’s victory may trickle down to Ebonyi State.

But going by the overwhelming victory of PDP in the presidential election in the state, the outcome of the governorship/state house of assembly elections may be predictable.
Verdict: PDP’s Umahi will win by a comfortable margin

A Fierce Contest in Akwa Ibom but Udom Has the Edge
The four political gladiators in Akwa Ibom State are Mr. Udom Gabriel Emmanuel, who is the candidate of the PDP, Obong Umana Okon Umana of the APC, Senator Helen Esuene of LP and Bishop Samuel Akpan of Accord Party. Since the outset of the Fourth Republic, PDP was the strongest and most formidable party to beat in Akwa Ibom. Emmanuel is from Eket Senatorial District to which the party had zoned the governorship ticket. However, relative to his chief challenger, Umanna, the PDP governorship candidate is considered a neophyte in the political arena.

Unsurprisingly, his campaigns have been dominated by experienced politicians, with a former military administrator of the state, Idongesit Nkanga, as the director-general of the Udom campaign organisation. Until his appointment as SSG in the state, Emmanuel was an Executive Director of Zenith Bank Plc from December 2006, so he brings a wealth of private sector experience to the job.

However, given that he is from Eket Senatorial District, which has three strong gubernatorial candidates – Akpan and Esuene – gathering reasonable votes from the senatorial district will be tug of war for the PDP. In Ikot Ekpene Senatorial District, the Abak axis where Don Etiebet is the political honcho, along with the two Ibibio councils in the district, may also want to vote against the PDP because of political neglect by the Godwin Akpabio administration.

On the other hand, Umanna hails from Nsit Ubium LGA, Uyo Senatorial District of the state. He is an economist, financial expert, system analyst and a seasoned bureaucrat. Umanna, who contributed substantially to the success of the PDP in the state, however, decided to dump it when he was frustrated by the party from picking the governorship ticket. To actualise his governorship bid, he resuscitated APC in the state as a party to beat. His movement to APC helped to decimate the supporters of the ruling party. With Umanna, APC is not taking anything for granted in the gubernatorial election.

Umanna is banking on the ill feelings against the present state administration, which has been accused of neglect. He is also hoping that the 22 former governorship aspirants of the PDP (G-22), led by Esuene, who broke away from the ruling party after the primaries in the state, could help spit the votes during the election.

Esuene has campaigned extensively across the state and may spring a surprise win in the election because of her blue print and programme for the state. Furthermore, owing to her background, and the total support of the G-22, other political parties are worried about the outcome of the election.

In all, the battle for the post of governor in Akwa Ibom is going to be keenly contested. But with Akpabio firmly in control of the state’s resources and levers of power, Udom is the favourite to win the race. Although the victory by Buhari may likely galvanise some more supporters for Umanna, he is unlikely to wrest control from the firm like grip of Akpabio and his protégé Udom.
Verdict: PDP’s Udom will win

All Hail Ahmed in Kwara
Following the huge success recorded by the ruling APC in Kwara State during the just concluded presidential and National Assembly polls, the leadership of the party returned to the drawing board so as to consolidate the gains of the victory of the party ahead of Saturday’s governorship and state house of assembly elections in the state. The other two opposition parties in the election, PDP and LP, are also leaving no stone unturned at correcting their abysmal outing in the elections.

The APC is presenting the incumbent governor, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed, as its governorship candidate; the senator representing Kwara South Senatorial District at the National Assembly, Senator Simeon Sule Ajibola, is the governorship candidate of PDP while Dr. Mike Omotoso is the governorship candidate of LP. It is instructive that the three candidates hail from Kwara South senatorial district.

However, at the heart of the political battle ahead of the elections is whether LP and PDP have the wherewithal to snatch power from the APC. Ahmed’s APC is banking on the successes recorded so far by its candidate since assumption of office almost four years ago and has anchored its campaigns on continuity. Ahmed is also armed with the political structures of the leader of the party in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki, which has been used to woo voters and has always delivered the goods in past elections.
Given the Saraki hegemony in Kwara and the Buhari bandwagon effect, Ajibola and Omotoso don’t stand much of a chance in the gubernatorial poll.
Verdict: APC’s Ahmed will win and get the second term he desires

Taraba: By Keeping the Buhari Factor at Bay, Ishaku Could Take the Day
The 2015 gubernatorial race in Taraba State is a three-horse race between the candidates of the PDP, Mr. Darius Ishaku, APC, Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, and SDP, Chief David Sabo Kente. Ahead of the election, the three candidates ran very robust and expansive campaigns to sell their candidacy to the electorate and it would not be out of place to say that all of them did wonderfully well to win the support of the people.

But besides the elaborate campaigns, there have been serious political alignments and realignments that would have serious implications on the outcome of the election, though long standing political traditions and sentiments still remain a critical factor in determining who emerges victorious.

All things being equal, Ishaku is considered the favourite candidate to emerge as the governor-elect of Taraba. Besides possessing towering credentials and a wealth of experience in both the private and public sectors, he enjoys the backing of the critical stakeholders in the state that determine where the pendulum swings in any election. He was recently endorsed by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) as its gubernatorial candidate, just as he has the full backing and support of General T.Y. Danjuma and former Governor Jolly Nyame.

The almost clean sweep of the presidential and National Assembly elections two weeks ago by PDP is a further confirmation that the party still remains the dominant party in the state. The party won all the three senatorial seats and three out of the six House of Representatives seats leaving APC and APGA with two and one seats respectively.

A serving member of the National Assembly, Senator Alhassan, has proven to be a formidable politician and grassroots mobiliser. Besides, she has contributed immensely to the growth and popularity of the APC in Taraba. Since she emerged as the APC candidate, she has not left anybody in doubt about her readiness and determination to win the gubernatorial election in the state and has taken her campaigns to all the nooks and crannies of the state. The victory of Buhari in the presidential election is another great boost to her chances of becoming the first elected female governor in Nigeria. Her greatest strength lies in the Muslim population of the state and it is expected that she will garner a majority of their votes.

Kente decamped from PDP to pick the gubernatorial ticket of SDP following his failure to emerge as the PDP candidate. He is a household name in Taraba and very popular for his philanthropic activities. The DSK Foundation he established has brought succour to many homes and communities and though SDP was relatively unknown in Taraba until he picked the party’s ticket, he has built it to become a very strong party with a sizable followership, fielding candidates for all the National Assembly positions. But the outcome of the federal legislative elections has dealt a big blow to his chances, as SDP could not win any seat in the National Assembly. While there have been insinuations that he’s pulling out of the race, he has come out boldly to denounce it, insisting that he was going the whole hog.
Verdict: PDP’s Ishaku, backed by TY Danjuma and Jolly Nyame is expected to win

Despite the Odds, Amosun is Favoured to Hold Sway
In Ogun State, there are three major contenders eyeing the Oke Mosan Government House on Saturday. They are incumbent Governor Ibikunle Amosun of APC who wants another term in office, Gboyega Nosiru Isiaka of the PDP and Senator Akin Odunsi of SDP.
However, LP, which is also in the race, has been engaged in legal battle over who its standard-bearer should be. Last Thursday, the court sitting in Abeokuta, the state capital, cleared former Commissioner for Information and Strategy in the state, Mr. Sina Kawonishe, as the governorship candidate of LP. With less than 10 days to the election, no one favours his prospects.

‎However, the state‎ is expected to be one of the battleground zones considering what looks like a battle of the titans between Amosun and two former governors, Chief Olusegun Osoba and the Chief Gbenga Daniel who are bent on unseating Amosun. They intend to give Amosun a run for his money and he has already lost some prominent supporters to SDP. Three senators, five House of Representatives members and other APC supporters, who should have been mobilising support for Amosun’s re-election, had defected to the SDP following the crisis that rocked the ruling party during its state congress. In this regard, SDP is now viewed as posing serious threat to the electoral fortunes of Amosun who is widely acclaimed to have performed well in his first four years in office.
Isiaka of PDP is another frontline candidate, whose chances of winning the election are bright having been in politics for sometime. This is not the first time the chartered accountant will be taking a shot at the governorship seat. He had contested on the platform of the defunct Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) in 2011, but lost to Amosun. The PDP candidate’s journey into politics was influenced by Daniel, but with the great loss of the party at the presidential poll, Daniel would use all his influence to secure votes for the candidate in the governorship election.

However, the exit of former President Olusegun Obasanjo from PDP will certainly affect the fortunes of the party in the election. Obasanjo will also throw his weight behind Amosun who he has praised for his stewardship in the state, and will influence his supporters into backing the governor.
While it is not certain how much influence Buhari’s win would have on the outcome of the gubernatorial election, the electorate may most likely align with Amosun who is one of Buhari’s closest allies in the South-west.
Verdict: APC’s Amosun will win

Benue: Suswam’s Gift to APC
In Benue State, the battle for who succeeds Governor Gabriel Suswam has become a two-horse race between Prince Terhemen Tarzoor of the PDP and Dr. Samuel Ortom of the APC. Following the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections, the struggle for who succeeds Suswam is certainly going to be an uphill task. Both candidates are coming into the race with huge credentials and political experience.

The youthful Tarzoor of the PDP is 43 and a former two-time member of the Benue State House of Assembly who held various positions in the House including the post of Speaker, while Ortom has been a consummate politician who rose from the grassroots as Chairman of Guma LGA to PDP state secretary, national auditor of PDP and later Minister of State, Trade, Industry & Investment under the Goodluck Jonathan administration.

Both candidates had last year slugged it out in the race for the PDP ticket in which Tarzoor with the outgoing governor, Suswam’s backing, defeated Ortom, among others by a wide margin but Ortom complained of the procedure of the conduct of the primary and left to join the APC.

Even worse, Suswam decided to contest for the Benue North-east senatorial seat in the state, thereby forcing Barnabas Gemade, a former National Chairman of the PDP who was the senator representing the zone to also defect to APC.
With major defections by Ortom and Gemade, among others, coupled with Suswam’s inability to pay salaries of workers in the state for months, the state with its dominant Christian population and with David Mark as Senate President, fell to APC in the presidential election, though by a slim margin. APC also won six out of the 11 House of Representatives seats and two senatorial seats, leaving Mark as the last man standing on the platform of the PDP. Suswam did not get his heart’s desire to go to the Senate, as Gemade retained his seat.

It is clear that Suswam’s meddlesomeness, selfish attitude and mismanagement of the state’s resources, could again cost PDP the election in the governorship race. Add this to the Buhari bandwagon effect and political titans such as Audu Ogbeh of the APC, who are going to work assiduously to ensure that PDP loses its grip of Benue.
As it stands, the governorship race will be keenly contested, as both candidates are almost evenly matched.
Verdict: APC’s Ortom is set to win the state

El-Rufai Set to End PDP’s Reign in Kaduna
The governorship election in Kaduna State is one contest to watch. The campaigns by both candidates – incumbent Governor Ramalan Yero of PDP and former FCT Minister Nasir el-Rufai of APC – have been aggressive, characterised by violence that led to killings and destruction of campaign billboards and posters of parties in the state. PDP has held sway in the state for 16 years but stands the risk of losing it on Saturday for the first time.

Yero came to political limelight when his political godfather, Vice-President Namadi Sambo, who suffered a defeat in Kaduna during the just concluded presidential election, selected him as the new deputy governor to take over from his erstwhile deputy governor of the state, the late Patrick Yakowa, who was elevated to governor after Sambo had been selected as vice-president in 2010 following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Unfortunately, Yakowa was to die three years later, thus catapulting Yero into the governorship seat.

Both Yero and el-Rufai are Muslims from Zaria in the northern senatorial zone of Kaduna. Going by the just concluded National Assembly elections, the APC is dominant in the two senatorial zones except the Southern Kaduna senatorial zone. The APC won the Kaduna north and Kaduna South senatorial seats as well as 11 out of the 16 House of Representatives seats.
Though the bandwagon effect of the emergence of Buhari as president may work in favour of the APC, observers are quick to point out that the outcome of the governorship election may not mirror the presidential election in the state, as the supporters of PDP in the two senatorial zones voted massively for Buhari based on religion and regional considerations. However, since Yero and el-Rufai are both Muslims, religion may not play a role in the contest although some people had succeeded in branding the APC as a Muslim party and PDP as a Christian party among the masses.

The lacklustre performance of Yero for the past two years since he came to power and his relationship with Sambo who appears to have no influence in the politics of Kaduna, as well as insinuations in some quarters that Yero is Sambo’s lackey could count against the governor, although he has repeatedly dismissed such insinuations.

The only stronghold of the PDP is the Southern Kaduna senatorial zone whose block votes always determine the winner of the governorship election in the state. But with the outcome of the presidential election, the zone seems to be divided over the two candidates. At the time of this report, stakeholders in the zone were said to be preparing for a meeting to take a stand during the governorship election.

Many communities in the Southern Kaduna are also said to be unhappy about Yero’s failure to address the serial killings by rampaging Fulani herdsmen, which has claimed hundreds of lives and the destruction of homes and property.
The situation on the ground suggests that the pendulum may swing in favour of the brilliant, but mercurial el-Rufai.
Verdict: APC’s el-Rufai is set to carry the day

In Rivers, Wike Will Match Amaechi Pound for Pound
The major gubernatorial candidates in Rivers State are Chief Nyesom Wike of the PDP, Dr. Dakuku Peterside of the APC, and Prince Tonye Princewill of LP. Of the three, the contest is going to be a slugfest between Wike and Peterside. If the result of the March 28 presidential and National Assembly elections in the state are anything to go by, one will be tempted to give the contest to PDP, which secured almost 95 per cent of the votes.

However, the claim by the APC that it did not really participate in the elections as Governor Chibuike Amaechi insisted on seeing the result sheets before accreditation, and the allegations of massive rigging and intimidation by security personnel, may dampen the enthusiasm of PDP and its supporters.

Indeed, APC’s morale has been boosted by the emergence of Buhari as president-elect. Also, Amaechi has given his party faithful the assurance that they would not be intimidated by security men and urged them to turn out en masse to vote for Peterside.
The APC has also called for the redeployment of the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the state, Mrs. Gesila Khan, on allegations that she took sides with the PDP to rig the last election. If they succeed in redeploying Khan, that would be a major boost for Peterside.
Another factor working in favour of Peterside is the clamour for a governor from the riverine Ijaw area of the state. The argument that it is morally wrong for Wike, an Ikwerre man, to succeed Amaechi, also an Ikwerre indigene, seems to have persuaded some persons, especially among the Ijaws.

But while that seems to work in favour of Peterside, Wike’s dogged support for President Jonathan, an Ijaw man, has polarised the Ijaw nation. Indeed, some people believe that Wike has proved to be more Ijaw than Peterside since the APC candidate was part of the group that have ousted an Ijaw president from Aso Rock.
Again, PDP’s loss at the centre has made it even more imperative that they win Rivers State, at least as a face-saving measure. The PDP bigwigs know that if they fail to win the governorship of Rivers State, they would be in “political hell fire” as stated by Wike recently. That perhaps is the major propeller of the PDP.

However, while Wike and Peterside are on the front burner, Princewill, another Ijaw man, believes he would spring a surprise as a compromise candidate. How he can achieve this feat is yet to be seen, as he has neither the finances nor the structures to dent the APC and PDP.

In the final analysis, it will be a big surprise if APC can reverse the 95 per cent deficit and win Saturday’s poll. The orgy of violence and killings across the state may further reduce the turnout of voters, especially supporters of the APC. If this happens, then PDP is more likely to win the gubernatorial poll.
Verdict: PDP’s Wike still holds the ace in Rivers and will win

C’River is Set to Celebrate Ayade
In Cross River State, the governorship election features Ntufam Fidelis Ugbo of LP, Mr. Odey Ochicha of the APC and Professor Ben Ayade of PDP. Except for the inauguration of his governorship campaigns in Ugep, Yakurr Local Government Area, early February this year, not much has been seen or heard concerning Ugbo’s campaigns ahead of the governorship poll.

Though Ugbo has rich academic credentials and enjoys personal goodwill across the state having served as commissioner, secretary to state government (SSG), and executive secretary, National Planning Commission (NPC), but it is doubtful if his track record is enough to give him victory at the polls. Besides, the strength of the LP has been badly bruised by the resounding defeat of all its candidates at the National Assembly polls, forcing some of the supporters of the LP candidates to work for the success of the PDP candidate.

Ochicha got the ticket of the APC on a platter of gold, as the party was highly despised by a large section of the political class in the state who did not want to be identified with a political party or group that appeared to be against the second term aspiration of Jonathan. So without any strong opponent, Ochicha won the primary of APC with ease. But with the defeat of Jonathan at the presidential poll by Buhari, a lot has changed for the governorship candidate, as he has suddenly won some new admirers. However, the APC lacks the cohesion that is required for a governorship contest of the magnitude that is billed for Saturday.

Ochicha has carried his campaigns alone to all the nooks and crannies of the state, without the necessary support of the party’s leadership. Paucity of funds also appears to be one of the greatest impediments to Ochicha’s success at the election.
Ayade of the PDP, from all indication, is the candidate to beat. The PDP candidate has everything going for him, from very well oiled and funded political structures to the popularity of the PDP in the state, going by the result of the March 28, presidential and National Assembly elections.

With a massive following, backed up with the power of incumbency represented by Governor Liyel Imoke of the PDP, a veritable factor for electoral victory in the state, Ayade looks good to win the governorship election.
Verdict: PDP’s Ayade will win overwhelmingly

Kano Prepares to Usher in Ganduje
In Kano, the contest for the state’s number one seat is between the incumbent deputy governor, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who is contesting as the candidate of the APC. Ganduje, a long time deputy to Kwankwaso, has been described as the most loyal deputy governor in the state, and is seen as the candidate sure of succeeding Kwankwaso.

His chances are very excellent considering the strength of the Kwankwasiyya movement in the state under the leadership of Kwankwaso with Ganduje as deputy leader of the movement. He is liked and always reaches out to all people in the state without a care for their political party affiliations.

His opponent, Salihu Sagir Takai of the PDP, though a household name among the loyalists of the former governor of the state, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, because he contested in 2011 on the platform of the defunct ANPP but lost to Kwankwaso, may stand a better chance of winning on Saturday. However, his emergence as the governorship candidate of PDP met so much resistance from the other candidates who kicked against the party’s primary but later accepted his candidature after a series of intervention by party stakeholders. Takai is said to be a trusted and honest person but is deemed Shekarau’s lackey.

His prospects may get a boost from large supporters in the rural areas who are very loyal to Shekarau and other prominent personalities that are occupying positions at federal government level. Political analysts say that the battle, for now, is too close to call because the two opposing candidates have their mutual strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, with the presidential contest lost and won and the North regaining power at the centre, it is uncertain how much of the Buhari factor will influence the outcome of the governorship race in Kano, but lady luck may shine on Ganduje..
Verdict: APC’s Ganduje will win

Ringim Will Fight But May Come up Short in Jigawa
In Jigawa State, the contest is between two main political parties. If the results of presidential and National Assembly elections are anything to go by, Governor Sule Lamido’s anointed candidate and former chief of staff, Malam Aminu Ringim of the PDP, is expected to suffer massive defeat.

Ringim’s prospects have also been dimmed by the fact that the closest lieutenants to the governor including Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ahmad Mahmoud, and former Governor Saminu Turaki have decamped to APC alongside over 20,000 member of the PDP. Other salient factors that have put the PDP candidate at a disadvantaged position was the campaign statement by Buhari when he urged voters to vote for APC from top to bottom.

Added to this is the fact that the APC candidate, Alhaji Muhammadu Badaru Abubakar, is regarded as one of the most successful businessmen in Nigeria and rated among the top billionaires in the state who have the financial wherewithal to fund his campaign for the Government House. His affluence give him the edge over the PDP candidate, who has been struggling to fund his campaign, as the state government has refused to back him financially. The speculations making the rounds in the state is that Lamido has deliberately refused to release money to him including the campaign funds that came from the presidency.
In a nutshell, Lamido’s inability to deliver the state to PDP may be his candidate’s undoing in the governorship election.
Verdict: APC’s Abubakar will win

In Imo, It’s a Fight between Wily Okorocha and Dogged Ihedioha
The political landscape of Imo State today is very interesting in the sense that the people have taken a resolve to play the role of opposition at the national level following the victory of Buhari.

The frontrunners in the governorship race are the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and governorship candidate of the PDP in the state, Chief Emeka Ihedioha, incumbent Governor Rochas Okorocha of the APC and Captian Emmanuel Ihenacho of APGA. The choice of Ihedioha from among the over 30 aspirants that ran for the primaries of the PDP can best be described as the winning strategy of the party for the April 11 gubernatorial election.

Apart from coming from Owerri zone, Ihedioha’s pedigree supersedes all other candidates from the zone. Judging from his national clout and experience, Ihedioha brings to the table an enviable track record in governance. In his quest to sell his candidacy, Ihedioha has traversed all the nooks and crannies of the state pointing out some significant achievements he had attracted as a federal legislator. He has to his advantage the support of his zone and the Okigwe zone.

He will also be ridding on the performance of his party, which trounced APC in the presidential and National Assembly elections in his state. Unlike states in other zones, the South-east zone has refused to catch the Buhari bug, meaning that most of PDP’s followers in Imo have elected to remain with the party.

He will however be taking on Okorocha who is extremely wily and comes from the Orlu zone, the largest in the state. As the incumbent governor, he will also have more resources to influence the vote in his favour. But with PDP winning all three senatorial districts, and eight out of 11 House of Representatives seats in Imo, Okorocha will have his work cut out holding on to the state.

Besides, his treatment of his former deputy Jude Agbaso continues to rankle the Agbaso family led by Martin. It was with Martin’s support that he was able to oust former Governor Ikedi Ohakim in 2011. But with that no longer in the equation, Okorocha will have to pull all the tricks out of his hat to hang on to his post as governor.

As for Ihenacho, who is also from the Owerri zone, Ihenacho may end up splitting the votes in his zone with Ihedioha. But he lacks the sagacity and structures to give Okorocha or Ihedioha a run for their money..
Verdict: Ihedioha will win


Finally, Masari Set to Achieve Guber Aspiration in Katsina
The race of the governorship in Katsina State, the home state of Buhari who just won the 2015 presidential election, is an uneven match up between the former Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Masari of the APC and Musa Nashuni of the PDP. This will be his second shot at the Government House, but his first was truncated following internal wrangling in the defunct CPC which led to him being denied the ticket of the party to contest in 2011.

Masari, a former member of the PDP, hails from Karaduwa axis which is part of the Funtua zone that has the largest voter population in the state. Owing to the Buhari tsunami, his national standing and grassroots approach to politics, he is certain to win the election. However, he has allegations of certificate forgery hanging over his head. Although Masari has cleared the air concerning this, there are concerns that his opponents could use this against him.

But more than anything else, his role during the last moments of the Yar’Adua presidency may come back to haunt him, as he was accused of championing the call for the transfer of power to President Jonathan.

His opponent, Nashuni’s solitary strength is the fact that he is the outgoing governor’s candidate and so will have the resources of the state at his disposal to prosecute his ambition. Nashuni, however, is a political neophyte and is an unknown quantity even within the PDP, so selling Nashuni to the electorate will be hard.
Verdict: APC’s Masari will win convincingly

Buhari, Intra-party Animosity to End PDP’s Reign in Bauchi
Though the PDP has reigned supreme in Bauchi for 16 years, save for a brief interregnum, the party’s control over the state will end after Saturday’s elections. Reasons for this range from the deep seated animosity among PDP leaders in the state, namely, the party’s National Chairman, Adamu Mu’azu, the state Governor, Isa Yuguda, and FCT Minister Mohammed Bello, to the Buhari bandwagon effect.

As it stands, supporters of APC in the state are still in the celebratory mode after Buhuri’s victory, a development that has made supporters of PDP to keep a low profile, while the party’s campaign offices have been kept under lock and key with their leaders no where to be found.

Given the mood of the state, APC’s Mohammed Abubakar is expected to trounce Auwal Jatau of the PDP tomorrow.
Verdict: APC’s Abubakar will coast home to victory

In Abia, It’s a Contest Between Zoning and Competence
Basically the Abia gubernatorial race is a three-horse race between the PDP, which has Dr Okezie Ikpeazu as its candidate; APGA, which parades former Diamond Bank boss, Mr. Alex Otti; and APC with Chinenye Nyerere Anyim carrying its banner. These three candidates have been the visible ones with campaign structures, holding rallies and engaging in door-to-door campaigns soliciting for the votes of Abia electorate.

Ikpeazu remains the candidate to beat. He has the state machinery behind him and the major stakeholders of Abia politics are also supporting him. Ikpeazu is also a beneficiary of the PDP zoning arrangement which shifted power to Abia South, the only zone yet to produce a governor of the state since its creation in 1991. The PDP candidate, who is from Obingwa Local Government Area is sure to ride on the crest of home support by the zone hungry to feel a sense of belonging in Abia. His adoption by four political parties as well as a faction of APGA is likely to do him some good.

On the other hand, the APGA candidate, Otti, has proved to be a potent force to be reckoned with in the Abia governorship race. The former banker had nursed his governorship ambition in the PDP but found himself zoned out as he is from Abia Central, the zone of the incumbent governor, Chief Theodore Orji. Otti embraced APGA with his supporters, who argue that the issue of zoning should not come up at this stage of Abia’s development where competence should be the deciding factor in the choice of governor. He has been riding on the wave of popular support, winning the hearts and minds of the residents of the commercial city of Aba. His campaigns have given his main opponent, Ikpeazu, sleepless nights, and he has a decent chance of wresting power from the ruling PDP in the state.
For the Abia State chapter of APC, it has been a renewal of hope following the success of the party’s presidential candidate. The party has now changed its campaign tone by inviting Abia people to join the main stream of the nation’s politics by voting the APC governorship candidate to take over Government House, Umuahia. But that message is not likely to resonate with voters at this eleventh hour.
Verdict: PDP’s Ikeazu has the moment and is expected to win

Aliyu Will Deliver Niger to PDP
Niger will witness a repeat of what happened in 2011 when Jonathan lost the presidential election but the governorship poll was won by the PDP despite Buhari’s popularity in the North.
The contest for the highest office in the state is between the PDP candidate Umar Mohammed Nasko and the APC candidate Abubakar Sani Bello. Irrespective of the Buhari tsunami that affected Niger during the presidential election, Nasko stands a better chance of clinching the governorship seat, as people of the state will be voting for candidates of their choice during the governorship election not party.

Some factors that will work for Nasko include his humility, relationship with people and his experience as commissioner for seven years and chief of staff of the Babangida Aliyu administration.

His rival, Bello, is perceived as aloof and has very little support at the grassroots and less experience in public service. One other aspect that also give Nasko the upper hand is the fact that he is of Kambari origin which makes him an authentic indigene of Niger while Bello is a Hausa man whose great grandparents are settlers. Unfortunately for him, Governor Aliyu is also a Hausa man and a settler and people of the state are not disposed to voting for Bello on the grounds that they would prefer an indigene to govern the state.

Though both Bello and Nasko are in their forties, the youths are more excited about Nasko. What Bello has going for him is his relationship with General Abdulsalami Abubakar.
Verdict: Too close too call

In Delta, Okowa is the Man to Beat
The race in Delta State is dominated by Senator Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa of the PDP, Chief Great Ovedje Ogboru of the LP and Chief O’Tega Emerhor of the APC. Of the three, Okowa is easily one of the leading candidates, if not the candidate to beat, in tomorrow’s election.

His bid for the governorship post is strengthened by the PDP structures in Delta State, where the party currently has total control of all 25 local government areas, courtesy of the the 2014 local government election in the state. Moreover, the party has been in control of Delta since the restoration of democracy in 1999, having produced all the governors as well as over 90 per cent of the state and national legislators.

In the same vein, being a grassroots politician who is backed by the governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, and former Governor Jame Ibori, gives Okowa the edge over his rivals in the race. The Anioma yearning for Delta North to produce the next governor have also boosted his prospects.

However, PDP’s loss of the presidency and its dominance in the National Assembly have been played up by the APC in an attempt to trigger a possible domino effect among the voters. Also, the Urhobo Peoples Union (UPU), who has alleged marginalisation of the Urhobos by the PDP, could make his bid for the Government House somewhat difficult.

Okowa’s major rival Chief Ogboru has been a household name in Nigeria since the aborted military coup d’état of April 1990 and that situation has apparently remained unchanged since he started contesting for the governorship position in Delta State since 2003. Ogboru could be described as an old warhorse, having been involved in politics since 1999. His popularity among the ordinary people is clearly one of the pillars galvanising Ogboru’s gubernatorial ambition.

He will be banking on his renewed drive to win the support of coastal (riverine) communities, where he hopes to benefit from a lot of votes following the division between the Istekiri and Ijaw ethnic groups in the area. His endorsement by the UPU, for all it is worth, should also bolster his chances.

However, Ogboru, also known as the People’s General, is perceived as an ethnic jingoist which may undermine his bid, because he seems to rely more on the support and votes of his Urhobo kinsmen to give him the block votes. Therefore, he has harped on the endorsement of the Urhobo socio-cultural organisation throughout his campaigns.

He also has a weak party and lacks the financial resources to match the PDP. Added to this glaring disadvantage is the fact that Ogboru has practically contested every election from the platform of different political parties.

The third candidate in the Delta race Emehor of the APC has never hidden his ambition to be governor, having been an aspirant in 2007 under the canopy of the PDP. But this is the first real shot at his political goal. His bid will definitely benefit from APC’s victory at the centre, which has given him some huge incentive and renewed drive for the coveted seat. His campaign has since been directed at the electorate, admonishing them about the challenges associated with being in an opposition party at the state level.

However, he has been accused of undue propaganda and deliberate misinformation. Support by a faction of UPU is, nevertheless, expected to result in significant votes for Emerhor at the election. His campaign mantra that only an Urhobo man is good enough to be governor in Delta State has not gone down well with several stakeholders in the state either. Equally important is the fact that Emerhor and Ogboru will be slugging it out for the Urhobo vote, the largest block vote in the state, and will probably split it, thus paving the way for Okowa to concentrate on votes from other ethnic groups in the state.
Verdict: PDP’s Okowa is certain of victory

Dankwambo’s Stewardship Will Shine Through in Gombe
In Gombe State, the ruling PDP has absolute control of the state. From 2003 when it took over the seat of power from the Alhaji Abubakar Hashidu-led All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), PDP has established a strong foothold in the state. Though the PDP has continued to grow in strength in the state with the leader of the party and the governor of the state, Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, having a firm grip of the party and its structures, PDP will for the first time in years be truly tested at the polls tomorrow.

Up against Dankwambo, who is seeking re-election for a second term, is the candidate of the APC, Alhaji Inuwa Mohammed Yahaya, a former Commissioner for Finance. With Senator Danjuma Goje, a former governor of the state, leading the onslaught against Dankwambo, APC’s prospects look brighter.

However, Hurricane Buhari and the attempt by APC to brand PDP a Christian party will not do much to hurt the governor’s re-election bid. A frontline Nigerian academic and scholar once described Dankwambo as a politician in a class of his own, and not your typical everyday politician. He is in a hurry to develop the state and ensure that his people reap the dividends of democracy. His single-minded determination and laudable stewardship in his four years as governor, may however not be enough to save his job.
Verdict: Too close too call