The just concluded presidential and governorship elections should serve as an eye-opener to both protagonists and antagonists of this argument. If we are to go with the results of the elections, what does reality say about the strenght of Ibo and Yoruba votes in Lagos?. In light of this, it is however important to point out that there is absolutely no point in blowing false claims out of proportion when reality has actually proven the otherwise. Let us recant the election results and put to test the acclaimed voting might of these groups in Lagos state.

To test the voting might of this group, let us start by analyzing the number of votes won by both APC and PDP presidential candidates, to-be president Muhammadu Buhari of APC, and to-be ex-president Ebele Jonathan of PDP. Buhari pulled 792,460 votes as against Jonathan's 632,327. We should also know that this results were greatly determined by two major factors, which are no more than the ethnic composition and sentiments that abounds in the state, hence the ethnic composition of Lagos state should be factored in, and also in tandem with the sentiments attached to the votes.(PLEASE DO FEEL FREE TO AMEND ANY MISTAKE(S) OR BIASES YOU NOTICE IN THE BREAK DOWN.)

1) Taking into consideration the demograhic factors of the state, lets split the votes into the following:

Total no of votes = 1,424,787.
Factoring demography: Yoruba votes >= 70% of total votes = 997350 (AVERAGELY intentionally UNDERestimated)
Ibo votes >=25% of total votes = 356195 (MINIMALLY intentionally OVERestimated)
Other ethnics >= 5% of total votes = 71240 (GREATLY intentionally UNDERestimated)

So out of a total votes largelly more than a million, these group can only boast of approximately 360,000 (another dash).

2) Now taking into consideration sentimental factors. This though may prove a bit tricky, the results below will hardly prove otherwise of the votes in Lagos.

Factoring in sentiments: Yoruba APC votes = approx 75% of Yoruba votes = 748,012. (Mildly UNDERESTIMATED)
Yoruba PDP votes = approx 25% of Yoruba votes = 249,338. (Mildly OVERESTIMATED)

Ibo APC votes = approx 10% of Ibo votes = 36,000. (Largely OVERESTIMATED)
Ibo PDP votes = approx 90% of Ibo votes = 324,000 (Largely UNDERESTIMATED)

Other Ethnics APC votes = approx 50% of other ethnics votes = 35620
Other Ethnics PDP votes = approx 50% of other ethnics votes = 35620


To better interprete this analysis, more attention should be given to the sentimental factors of the elections, as this best describe the realities that we have just experienced. Please do take a look at the Yoruba and Ibo APC/PDP votes and draw up a view as unbiasedly fit. A good look would tell you that the votes of these group amounts to nothing without adding Yoruba PDP votes. Do take another look at that of Yoruba and Ibo APC votes. What can you say to that?

Analysis is best carried out using not only words of mouth which , but by extensive use of both/or logical objective and subjective techniques (which definitely MUST give room for the use of practical sciences if need be). To best represent the voting power of igbos and Yorubas in Lagos, i urge us to now turn to the use of soft skill techniques. Let us allow for the use of a rating scale which will mimmick Cronbach-Alpha's coefficient of reliability (α). Now, our scale will be guaged as:

0- No voting power at all (NB: actually unobtainable)
0.10-0.19 - Negligible voting power
0.20-0.29 - Very Weak voting power
0.30-0.39 - Weak voting power
0.40-0.49 - Slightly Weak voting power
0.50-0.59 - Considerable voting power
0.60-0.69 - Slighthly Strong voting power.
0.70-0.79 - Strong voting power.
0.80-0.89 - Very Strong power.
0.90-0.99 - Formidable voting power.
1-Absolute voting power (NB: actually unobtainable)

For the purpose of the topic, i'll like to concentrate on the voting powers of Yorubas and Ibos. Going by the figures above, we have the Cronbach-Alpha value (α) i.e voting power for each as follows:

α(Yoruba-APC ! Y-V)= Yoruba APC votes /Yoruba votes = 748,012/997,350= 0.75 (STRONG voting power)
This above stat represents the voting power of Yoruba APC supporters WITHIN the Yoruba ethnic stock.

α(Yoruba-PDP ! Y-V) = Yoruba PDP votes/Yoruba votes = 249338/997350 = 0.25 (VERY WEAK voting power)
This stat represents the voting power of Yoruba PDP supporters WITHIN the Yoruba ethnic stock.

α(Ibo-APC ! I-V) = Ibo APC votes/Ibo votes = 36,000/356,195 = 0.10 (NEGLIGIBLE voting power)
This stat represents the voting power of Ibo APC supporters WITHIN the Ibo ethnic stock.

α(Ibo-PDP ! I-V) = Ibo PDP votes/Ibo votes = 324,000/356,195 = 0.91 (FORMIDABLE voting power)
This stat represents the voting power of Ibo PDP supporters WITHIN the Ibo ethnic stock.

The following series of analysis however will decide the ethnic voting power of the two groups in the state:

For the voting power of Ibos in Lagos,
α [ Ibo(PDP|APC) ] =Total Ibo votes/Total no of votes= 360,000/1,424,787 = 0.25 (VERY WEAK voting power).
This value represent the strenght/influence of Ibos' votes in Lagos state.

For that of Yoruba in Lagos,
α [Yoruba(PDP|APC) ] = Total Yoruba votes/Toatal no of votes = 997350/1,424,787= 0.7 (STRONG voting power).
This value represents the strenght/influence of Yorubas' votes in Lagos state.


With the above results, what are the possible divergences from reality as experienced in the elections? What also are the likely convergences with reality.? If you see, please do point them out.

To put the argument to a brief close, it is pertinent to say that following the dismal performance of PDP in securing the state despite huge backing from its supporters, is it not important for APC not to play into the reckless idea of 'a certain group' having a significant vote in Lagos state?. Additionally, asides Yorubas who are natives of Lagos state, salient questions that the APC needs to tackle include:
-Are other non-natives of Lagos asides Ibos not contributing immensely to the economy of Lagos?

-Is it not appropriate to consider Northerners in Lagos key players to APC's victory if we are to judge by the voting results in Northern Nigeria?

-Does it not amount to robbing Peter to pay Paul if APC in Lagos considers Ibos in its administration rather than the Northerners who supported the victory the party?

-Asides commiting a political error, is it not actually a futile effort trying to please a group that voted massively against APC but failed?

-Will appointing more Ibos commissioners in Lagos stop them from voting PDP or voting based on their sentiments in future elections?

-Is it not advisable appointing more local government indigenes (Aworis,Ijebus,etc) so as to increasingly subdue any effects of Ibo countervotes in those Ibo-dominated LGs?

-MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL, DESPITE APPOINTING THEIR KINSMEN INTO POSITIONS, HAS APC NOT FAILED IN TRYING TO GARNER IBO SUPPORTS?

I'll STRONGLY recommend APC to try and win back more natives in the PDP in addition to considering Northerners in Lagos state. Hausas/Northerners make up no less than 5% of Lagos population, hence they are also key players to the victory of APC if the presidential elections are to be used as a yard stick. Appointing them will rob off on the whole Northerners in Lagos state. This election should serve as a bitter lesson to the APC as against ever underscoring the VERY STRONG significance of natives(Yorubas) in Lagos. Winning the hearts of the natives in the marginalized LGs, especially in Amuwo-Odofin and Ajeromi Ifelodun LGs, should now be a point of call to the newly-elected governor, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode. In essence, replacing Ibos with indigenes especially will be a very key stroke that will not only serve as a move towards mending the issues between APC and Lagos indigenes, but alsoserve as a stepping stone to the beginning a 'docile Ibo votes'.

More recommendations on this will be provided later.

SOURCE: www.keeponsearching.com

see wahala! analysis 101

You make a lot sense,let's forward this to our Yoruba leaders.


permit me to copy.

Sconty09:
You make a lot sense,let's forward this to our Yoruba leaders.


permit me to copy.

PLEASE DO.

If youv got connections to any APC official or the likes, kindly make this available to them to forward to Ambode.

Lagos must improve by kicking out misfits