A Serious Analysis of Osun’s Allocation and Wage Bill

Permit me to use this medium to analyze the speech of the governor of Osun-Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola-on Tuesday, June 2, 2015 at the inauguration of state house of assembly members.

I intend to use available data for this exposition after which you can make an informed conclusion on our case. You see, I live and work in this great state and I know first-hand, the effects of the financial crisis.

The figures are from our dear budgIT, oagf and fmf. It is straightforward: type in your state (for budgIT, the state allocation page) and year of choice, the year’s FAAC allocations will appear. For the other two, type in the month and year, the entire allocations for all the 3 tiers of government appears.

I explain all this not because I think you are slow but knowing the social media peeps, one has to be thorough. The figure you really need from all those numbers is the NET ALLOCATION. I believe now, we can begin the exercise.

ISSUES TO NOTE: The governor in his maiden address to the house said the total allocations to the state from FAAC, IGR and other accruals are equal to #204 billion. Of this, FAAC and others excluding IGR amount to #108.3 billion.

2010: The Year of Oranmiyan
The governor came in in November and he declared the total allocation for the 2 months to be #4.2 billion. He also said the wage bill is #3.6 billion with a net gain of #573 million. From the table below whose figures are obtained from the aforementioned sites (at least, we should be able to trust @seunonigbinde’s numbers), you will see it is different.

(2010) Month
Allocation (#)
Nov
3,359,574,999
Dec
2,643,527,897

The total here is #6.0 billion, no? If you deduct wage bill of #3.6 bn from #6 bn, ‘you go definitely get answer wey pass the net gain.’ I am not an accountant but I try to trust my calculator.

2011: The Beginning of the Rule
Baba say throughout this year, he got #29.9 billion, had a wage bill of #25.8 billion and a net gain of #4 billion- remember, his words, not mine. Again, let us turn to the trio:

(2011) Month
Allocation (#)
Jan
2,696,765,229
Feb
2,645,955,515
Mar
2,777,516,461
Apr
2,885,614,779
May
3,805,132,254
Jun
6,642,100,744
Jul
3,968,379,222
Aug
3,875,166,548
Sept
4,536,205,850
Oct
6,151,023,296
Nov
3,805,409,418
Dec
4,396,762,996

You will find that summing these gives you #48.2 billion with an awesome net gain well above the one above. Anyways, as they say on #twitter street, #netgainnooni.

2012: The Year of the First of the Deficit
My amiable, quintessential, articulate and ever conscious (sorry, I finished from OAU) Ogbeni said we got #28.4 billion and expended #31.6 billion leaving a deficit of #3.2 billion- the first of its kind. I am seriously channeling @DoubleEph. Come with me to our table:

(2012) Month
Allocation (#)
Jan
3,894,581,054
Feb
4,842,019,095
Mar
3,921,855,981
Apr
3,614,243,600
May
3,618,147,287
Jun
3,446,176,188
Jul
4,451,689,936
Aug
3,473,346,273
Sept
2,678,278,414
Oct
4,133,057,528
Nov
5,610,314,299
Dec
4,114,871,121

The total from the addition will give us #47.8 billion. “If I lie, make mosquito bite me.” Which begs the question: If you remove 31.6 from 47.8...I can’t hear you? Again, I say, “kontunu.” In the words of #babahafusa #reminisce, “alabinrin”, why are these numbers doing “falafolo”.

2013: The Second Year of Our Beloved Deficit
Now, I sincerely hope you are getting my message. For this year, we understand that #26.4 accrued to the state out of which #36.9 was expended giving us a ‘whopping’ #10.4 billion deficit. Turn’t up with me to the table:

(2013) Month
Allocation (#)
Jan
3,291,209,812
Feb
5,064,089,701
Mar
4,204,314,757
Apr
4,294,238,309
May
4,063,536,687
Jun
4,353,931,533
Jul
3,271,484,073
Aug
3,637,472,918
Sept
2,955,122,740
Oct
3,479,416,049
Nov
3,348,427,615
Dec
2,694,382,073

Adding them together gives us #44.7 billion. If you remove the wage bill from this number (or vice versa), there is no way you will have a deficit! I can understand if by now you are confused, trust me; I thought the people from my village have upgraded their operating system-like they did that rich guy who turned to a monk.

2014: The Year of Oil, its Crash, and Revenue Drop
To cut the long story short, “our statutory allocation fell further to N19.3 billion and by which time we were already defaulting on some of our obligations on emoluments, which had also dropped to N22.4 billion, but still left us with a deficit of N3 billion.”

(2014) Month
Allocation (#)
Jan
3,050,792,396
Feb
3,014,708,843
Mar
3,019,480,006
Apr
2,838,749,560
May
4,131,453,072
Jun
3,557,937,064
Jul
*
Aug
*
Sept
*
Oct
2,507,888,137 **
Nov
2,778,332,759
Dec
2,479,474,912

Before we continue, you’ll notice the asterisks. On ‘oagf’s site, the breakdown page for the states were absent. See here, here, and here. In fact, on BudgIT website, 2014 allocations ended in June. For the month with 2 asterisks, they made a mistake of writing “allocation of October 2013 shared in November 2014-here.

Having explained that, let’s get back to the numbers. Now, I know we do not have figures for 3 months, but is it not amazing that without those figures, summation still gives #27.4 billion! This is what I call amazeballs. It means we would have comfortably paid the wage bill of #22.4 billion.

Before putting my pen back in the basket of strange accounting, brethren, let us summarize the first main point. If you add all the figures from the tables, the amount accruable to the State of Osun (excluding IGR) from the year of our Lord 2010-2014 is #174.1 billion.

Ogbeni (#)bn
The Trio (#)bn

a) Allocations
(excluding IGR)
108.3
174.1

b) Wage Bill
120.4
120.4

c) Deficit/Excess
12 (D)
53.7 (E)

I am not trying to elicit anything nor am I forming opposition. As @ayosogunro said, there are two types of people in a polity: party faithful’s and citizens. I belong to the latter. My submission is this; obviously, there are two different figures here. Which one is true and which is false?

If we say we are progressives, conservatives, fencists, etc., there has to be a converging point for us where true data is given and relied on. This definitely is confusing and I am sure people will take sides but if we are to be #activecitizens, we need to start asking serious questions about the figures we are given.

Personally, I think the governor owes us a breakdown of the allocations, debt profile and its servicing, government projects (completed, ongoing and untouched). This topic of salaries is a hot one as we are not the only one but if the figures above are true, then the governor of the State of Osun, @raufaregbesola, has no excuse.

I conclude with the words of @elnathan when tweeps were comparing FIFA with Nigeria. With these few points of mine, I hope I have been able to confuse you and not convince you of the need to not be just commentators or “mentioners” but people who hold government officials accountable.
Sorry sir, I do not want to plagiarize.

Thanks for your time.
Samuel Ceezhar- @mr_ceeh

firstly nothing like the state of osun
What we have n created by FGN is Osun State!

I pity d people from d state of osun

OREMUSSANCTUS:
I pity d people from d state of osun

Osun State!

these are the kind of analysis expected from PDP osun state chapter so that they stand in as the vanguard of the people, it would be difficult for the governor not to respond in such case. Analysis with facts and figures always thrump the ones with fables, hate and fiction.

chinchum:
these are the kind of analysis expected from PDP osun state chapter so that they stand in as the vanguard of the people, it would be difficult for the governor not to respond in such case. Analysis with facts and figures always thrump the ones with fables, hate and fiction.

Thank you sir. That's what I've been trying to put out there. Every democracy needs a strong opposition. It's not a matter of hating on anyone's person but dealing in facts.
Just that Nigerians are so biased.

Cc lalatisclala ishilove front page this thing
This deserve fp seriously

CC Lalatisclala Ishilove Please move this thread to the front page.

People need to read how AregbeRascal Odolugbese Omo Ogbo'kun has successfully destroyed state of osun Osun state.

I was a staunch supporter of the goat, but he's really messed up. He goofed big time. He ruined Osun State completely.

The bastard needs to explain to us what he did with the allocation from FG.

I doubt the bastard is really Ijesha, we original Oshomaalos are not Saboteurs Odolugbeshes, we are builders not destroyers. Aregbe has destroyed Osun State.

Waiting to see what FG is going to do about the debt mess. If I were Buhari, I would take over the payment of the civil servants from the Onigbeshe States like Osun, Benue, Kogi and the rest states. They may do whatever they like with the rest money paid into the account of their states, civil servants' salaries come first.

I'm really angry.

Alaabaa.

weyreypey:


Osun State!

but the governor changed it

I don't understand why there haven't been a serious protest in Osun

TIMEISWISDOM:
I don't understand why there haven't been a serious protest in Osun

the pple are timid.

State of Osun is the worst state today, I tend to wonder why yorubas want fayose who's is not owing Ekiti workers out while Baba gbese aka Aregberascal is mentioned in the same light with Awolowo