BAYELSA State is literally on fire and for good reasons. On December 5, people of the oil-rich state would file out to elect who governs them in the next four years. The tenure of Governor Seriake Dickson ends on February 14, 2016. Like Ondo, Ekiti, Edo and Osun states, Bayelsa did not participate in the last general elec­tions, following the nullification of the previous poll in the state by the Court which ordered for the conduct of a fresh one in the state.

As expected, the power brokers in the two main political parties –Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) are already at their best ahead of the election. At the mo­ment, all that matters in the state is the politics of who governs Bayelsa in 2016. Indeed, among the people, there is no sitting on the fence as the people are either for the PDP or APC.

And barely four months to the election, the entire state has become one huge billboard for governorship aspirants of the contending parties. There are all manner of posters from one part of the state to the other. It is politics all the way.

Suffice it to say that the forthcoming election has all the trappings of an epic battle.It has thrown up interesting intrigues, horse-trading and political calcula­tions.

But amid the struggle for the plum position, some of the ques­tions agitating the minds of ob­servers are: Who wins the gover­norship race on December 5? Has Governor Dickson worked hard enough to earn a second term in office? Will the bandwagon effect of Buhari’s emergence make the APC upstage the PDP which has controlled the state since 1999?

As the questions keep coming, analysts believe that several issues will determine where the pendu­lum will swing in the predictably tension-soaked election. They are:

Supremacy battle between APC, PDP

Given the outcome of the last general elections, there is no gainsaying that the coming Bay­elsa election provides yet another opportunity to the PDP and the APC to test their strengths and popularity. While the PDP will be trying to consolidate its influence in the state which it has controlled since 1999, the APC which is now the ruling party at the centre will be positioning itself to expand its popularity in the state.

It is one battle that will again bring head to head the two main actors in the last presidential election-President Muhammadu Buhari of APC and his predeces­sor, Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP.

As expected, what the APC will be hoping for is the possible bandwagon effect of Buhari’s emergence. The calculation is that power brokers in APC would try to sway a percentage of voters in the state to see reasons in sup­porting a party that is already in control of the centre. For many, it is not impossible for the APC to steal the show in the December 5 election considering that suc­cess comes with many friends and followers. It is little wonder that the victory recorded by the APC in the last general elections had attracted some former members of the PDP to its fold ahead of the governorship election.

However, in the thinking of many observers, it will be an uphill task for the APC to win the December 5 election in Bayelsa and their reasons are not farfetched. One is the fact that Jonathan, the immedi­ate past president who has already endorsed Governor Dickson for a second term is from Bayelsa and a son of the soil.

Many Bayelsans are still brood­ing over the manner Jonathan, their kinsman was removed from office in the last presidential elec­tion and may be waiting to take its pound of flesh from the APC in the next election.

In the calculation of some observers, sentiment would play a major part in deciding who wins the election . Majority of voters in the state may be constrained to support the party which made an indigene become the first president from the Niger Delta region.

The permutation in many quarters is that having lost the last election, Jonathan is unlikely to allow his party to lose the coming governorship election in the state. In the estimation of analysts, the influence of Jonathan will come in handy in the election considering that even his critics know that his administration had a significant impact in the lives of Bayelsans.

In line with the mood in the state, former First lady and wife of President Jonathan, Patience recently reconciled with Gover­nor Dickson. There were reports that Dame Jonathan and Dickson had not been the best of friends throughout the period of Jona­than’s failed re-election bid.

It is in the light of that, that many see her support for the gov­ernor’s re-election as a major boost in the election. Dame Patience Jonathan is considered a factor in the politics of Bayelsa because of her popularity among the women­folk who are a critical segment of the voting population.

Many believe that Mrs Jonathan did not have a choice but to sup­port Dickson as that would help to protect her husband’s relevance in the politics of the state.

But there are those who argue that the endorsement of Dickson by the former first couple did not may work against Dickson. The move clearly did not go down well with some aspirants in the PDP who feel that such a development does not provide a level playing field for all the stakeholders. What seems to be working for Dickson however is that he remains the best option for the PDP in the battle with the APC for the governorship seat.

Former governor of Bayelsa State, Dipreye Alamieyeseigha at the declaration ceremony of Governor Dickson captured the scenario thus: I am glad that at last, President Jonathan came out openly to support Governor Dickson. It is possible he would have been doing that privately but recently and on the declaration day, he impressed me because he came out openly in support of Governor Dickson.

“For so many reasons which we know as politicians in the state having lost at the centre, you can­not protect your house for people to invade your privacy, it is not done”.

So, the thinking in many quar­ters is that from whichever angle one looks at it, the Jonathan factor will occupy the minds of major­ity of Bayelsans as they go to the polls.

Tinubu factor

Even though former Lagos State governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not from Bayelsa State, the rumour mill has it that he has more than a passing interest in who wins the December 5 election. Speculations are rife that the APC leader is be­hind the former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission, (NDDC), Mr. Timi Alaibe. For a particular school of thought, the former NDDC boss was actually prompted by Tinubu to challenge his main opponent in the APC primaries, Timipre Sylva who is a former governor of the state.

But that is at the realm of speculation because Tinubu was also quoted as having charged Bayelsans to ensure that Sylva becomes the next governor of the state in order to place the state on the right path.

“I want him to contest the gov­ernorship election because of his proven leadership qualities and our belief that he can bring change to the state”, he said.

Tinubu who met Sylva at his Abuja home not only endorsed him as the party’s consensus candidate for the December 5, 2015 gover­norship election but commended him for his contributions to the de­velopment of the party in Nigeria, particularly Bayelsa State.

His words:“It is time for Bayel­sans to unite and support a person who can effectively enhance unity, provide opportunities for all and lead the people in a different direc­tion” .

He expressed total and unre­served support for Sylva’s aspira­tion to clinch the party’s ticket and governorship seat and mandated APC leaders and members in Bay­elsa to support his choice.

“If you want change, if you’re unhappy with the direction of Bay­elsa State, then you must join the governorship race and change the state for the people”, he said.

Many argue that irrespective of whoever he supports, with his antecedents in politics, his influ­ence in the election may not just be wished away. But his influence is likely to loom large at the level of APC primaries than in the main election.

The man Alamieyeseigha

In Bayelsa State, the popularity of the former governor has refused to go away. To many, he is like a movement as he has remained a major force in the politics of the state. Observers believe that his support for Governor Dickson would boost his chances in the guber poll to a large extent. Last week when Dickson declared for a second term, the popularity of Alamieyeseigha came to the fore at the Samson Siasia stadium venue of the event. The crowd at the ex­pansive stadium was electrified as soon as the man popularly referred to as the ‘Governor-General of Ijaw nation’ entered the venue. So many years after leaving office, the man’s popularity in Bayelsa and even beyond has continued to soar.

So, for many, the former gover­nor who was impeached in office under controversial circumstances has become a phenomenon in the politics of Bayelsa and whoever he supports may likely win the governorship race.

Incumbency

Not a few argue that the fac­tor of incumbency will be an advantage in the election. The calculation is that having ruled the state for four years, his achieve­ments would speak for him. In the estimation of many, even some of Dickson’s critics agree that he has touched the lives of Bayelsans in the provision of democracy dividends.

The implication is that in the build up to the election, while the governor would be flaunting his achievements in office to woo the electorate, the candidate of the APC depending on who emerges eventually would be attempting to convince them on what he wishes to do when he comes to power.

For instance, Dickson had declared a state of emergency in education and made it free and compulsory at the secondary and primary school levels. Under him, the state government has spent over N25 billion on turning around primary and secondary school education in the state. The Dickson administration has spent over N7 billion on the scholarship of post graduate and PhD scholars in reputable institutions abroad. The beneficiaries of the scheme cut across all qualified Ijaws and not necessarily Bayelsans.

Apart from his strides in virtually all sectors of the state’s economy, Dickson has remained one of the outstanding governors in the management of human and financial resources. Now that many states are heavily indebted and cannot pay their workers, the gov­ernor has kept a clean slate and has paid salaries of all civil and public servants in the state.

Apart from his achievements, there is always the tendency of the majority of the people to bend toward the incumbent governor because of the resources available to him.

However, supporters of the APC believe that the wave of change in the country will help the eventual candidate of the party to win the election. Among them, the mes­sage is that Dickson has not done enough to deserve a re-election.

The thinking in the APC circles is that having ruled the state in the last 16 years, the PDP has yet to touch up the fortunes of people of Bayelsa State .

Politics of defection

One of the issues of public dis­course ahead of the election is the defection of some PDP members to the APC. The development to many is a sign that all is not well in the PDP as losing such stakeholders from its fold could frustrate its chances in the coming election. Observers wondered why the PDP allowed its members to leave at this critical period before the election. However, another school of thought believes that the defection of the PDP members was not unexpected considering that over 98 per cent of them are appointees, associates and relatives of former governor of the state, Timipre Sylva. The thinking here is that in the first place, virtually all the defectors to the APC did not support Dickson’s governor­ship ambition in 2012. Some of the prominent defectors include Chief Timi Alaibe, Chief Clever Ikisikpo, immediate past Senator representing Bayelsa East between 2011 and 2015, former chairman of NDDC, Dr Tarila Tepepah, for­mer commissioner for Agriculture under Sylva, Chief Dikivie Ikiogha and former House of Representa­tives member (Yenagoa/Kolo­kuma/Opokuma federal constitu­ency), Hon Warman Ogoriba.

Others are former Acting Governor of the state, Hon Nestor Ibinabo, former finance Commis­sioner under sylva, Mr Charles Opuala and a host of other aides, appointees and associates of Sylva.

Outcome of primaries

For those conversant with the dynamics of politics, the result of the primaries of the two major parties would have an effect on the election. At the last count, about 18 aspirants of the APC declared interest to fly the party’s flag in the coming election.

However, many believe that in the APC, the race is between the former governor of the state, Timipre Sylva and former Manag­ing Director of the NDDC, Timi Alaibe. Followers of events in the state believe that it is going to be a tough battle for the two major contenders to the flag of the APC.

Some argue that having ruled the state before, Sylva is likely to clinch the ticket considering that he has sustained a political structure in the state since he left office. They also argue that Sylva made the APC what it is in Bayelsa today. Recall that Sylva was very prominent in APC even when former President Jonathan who is a son of the soil was in power. Many see that as a rare boldness and commitment to the party. Those in support of this argument believe that the only commensurate com­pensation for his sacrifice would be giving him the APC flag in the December 5 election.

However, supporters of Timi Alaibe argue that the former NDDC boss remained the most qualified aspirant to the party’s ticket. The belief is that the APC needs a fresh candidate and not Sylva who had governed the state before. Their thinking is that Sylva’s first outing in office was not fantastic enough to deserve an­other mandate. Senator John Kojo Brambaifa is one of the elders of Bayelsa that is behind the aspira­tion of Mr. Timi Alaibe, a former Managing Director of the NDDC.

After obtaining the APC guber form for Alaibe, Brambaifa said: “We have decided to buy the forms for him and present him to our people as the most favourable can­didate because he will be the best to take the mantle of leadership in Bayelsa. “APC guidelines do not stop anybody who is a member of the party from contesting an elec­tion. Even if you joined yesterday, you have the same right to contest the election as somebody who joined two years ago.

“Don’t forget that Alaibe has a track record of achievements when he was in NDDC. At that time, he managed nine states. I don’t think one state will be a problem for him. So, we are confident that he stands the best chance to pick the APC ticket and win the election scheduled for December 5″.

So as it is, the permutation is that unless the APC manages its primaries well, there is likely go­ing to be a crisis after the exercise. There is even a school of thought that believes that some of the aspi­rants in APC are moles planted by the PDP to ensure that it does not get things right.

In the Bayelsa PDP, the situation is slightly different as Governor Dickson is almost the consensus candidate. Even though about six aspirants declared interest in the governorship seat, it is clear that Dickson will pick the ticket.

The calculation is that the PDP will find it easier to manage its post-primary crisis than the APC because of the number of aspirants who obtained guber forms in both parties. But in all, the answer to the question of who wins the governorship election in Bayelsa would come on December 5 when the people of the state would file out to vote.

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