Bevista:
(1) If you multiply the production rate of 2.2mbpd by $38/bbl, you can find the total $ revenue per day.
(2) Multiply the value in (1) above by 365, then you get the annual $ revenue
(3) Multiply the value in (2) above by 60%, then you get accruable $ revenue to Nigeria (IOCs and other JV partners share the other 40%)
(4) Multiply the value in (3) above by 54%, then you get FG $ share of the revenue
(5) Multiply the value in (4) above by N197, then you get the Naira value of FG revenue from crude oil
(6) Find the percentage of (5) above of N6T, then you will observe that crude oil is not that significant in Nigerian budget the way it used to be in the past.

The import of this is that FG is expecting revenue from other sources. I do not know what those other sources are until I see the full budget breakdown.

Kindly note that the steps above are a bit crude and has taken into consideration certain circumstances, but it will give you a very close estimate of the actual.

---
Cheers bro

IzonOwei:
this government still has not clearly defined how to rake in revenue from other sources because they are either clueless or sentimental...please with all sincerity tell me the likely sources other than oil that the fg hopes to get monies to fund the budget??...remember this government is also hoping on gas...as a supporter of the present government can you envisage realistic plans this government might have to generate much revenue(outside oil ad gas) and how they plan to go about it...

greatiyk4u:
The Change is becoming clearer as the day goes on

Adminisher:

.The change is clear ..all the stolen money and lost opportunities by the PDP when oil was $124 per barrel is also very clear. Nigerians are not fools

Bevista:
Fact is that no matter how much information I present to you, you are still going to screen such information through your prejudice. You will always believe what you have made up your mind to believe, and not necessarily the facts available.

Nigeria has other revenue generating agencies like Customs, Ports Authority, NNPC, NIMASA, FAAN, NCC, FIRS, etc. The problem in the past was that most of the revenue generated by these agencies were diverted within government circles and never got to federation account. These monies alone can contribute significantly to the FG budget, which is what I think has happened now under PMB.

Kindly note that South Africa with a much lesser GDP than Nigeria has a Federal Budget 5x that of Nigeria; their taxes alone is more than what Nigeria generates from oil. So that should tell you that the potential is there in Nigeria to generate more revenue, if only the government will be committed to transparency - something that was grossly lacking under GEJ.

seunmsg:



Okonjo Iweala and Jonathan are the biggest criminals to have governed this country. Close to 50% of our earnings was undisclosed and kept away from the national budget. They simply mismanaged trillions of naira without budgetary appropriation.

Even with the N4trillion estimate, our budget never performed beyond 50% at best. Though we have not seen the breakdown of how the N6trillion PMB budget will be funded, what is obvious to all discerning mind is that we now have a president who will not hide away the country's revenue earnings. All loopholes of revenue misappropriation is being blocked. The era of extra budgetary spending is over as all revenues generated will be brought to account in the national budget.

btoks:
There's got to be more income from elsewhere if we really want to grow rapidly as a country. That figure of 6tn naira is only about one fifth of the UK's Health Ministry budget! One wonders how these other countries get their income. We have a long way to go

4Play:
Looks like Nigerian fiscal policy is going to go the Osun way, i.e., debt fuelled spending. I say this because fiscal revenue remains disappointing 6 months into the new regime. If revenues next year would be high enough to meet such spending, it should be happening already.

IzonOwei:
so with all of this why havent we practiced true federalism??...why??...you know the answer....I want you to prove to yourself that this government remains clueless and still wants to depend on oil solely even if it sells 1 dollar per barrel...

No matter how you blame gej who by the way through the confab has pushed for true fedralism ,nigeria would never get it right using the same template...lets wait and see where all the money will come from..


This budget as reported still hangs on oil..

Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira - is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

Bevista:
I can understand your sentimental attachment to the Oil issue, and that is because you think it is your commodity. For the records, I am from Akwa Ibom State and the last time I checked we were contributing the most to Federation Account.

There is absolutely nothing wrong if the budget hangs on oil. It has always been that way, even while GEJ was president. When GEJ was there, how many times did you speak about true federalism? It is obvious you are still pained by his defeat, but I would advise you to move on. He was a disgrace to his people and the entire SS. The country under PMB will be better for you, except you were a direct beneficiary of the corruption under GEJ.

NovusHomo:


It would not have been this way had El Stupido and his gang of daylight thieves not emptied the nation's treasury.

IzonOwei:
i] have always pushed for true federalism...and from your replies I can swear youre not from the niger delta because if you were you would share my sentiments... ...you are south westerner or a northerner....go hide your head somewhere..you should root for what would benefit your people and not hoping on one old bigot whose people would rather die than allow the niger delta attain full resource control...let the country practice regionalism and let the other agencies youve mentioned push the other non oil producing states forward,...rubbish....

Gejs loss is not my problem, the fools like you who would sit back to wait for an hausa man to solve your problems using your own resources is...youre an enemy of the niger delta if you ever are one(I suspect youre lying through your teeth right now)..

Bevista:
I will not join issues with you about ethnicity - you can believe what you want to believe. It is plain myopia to play the victim card and blame others for your woes.

The money that comes to the ND from FAAC & NDDC is more than what goes to the entire north (- Kano), and yet the region is grossly underdeveloped. Is it the Hausas or the Yorubas that have been governing the region? You are scared to look your leaders in the eye and demand accountability. Have your governors attempted to look for any other source of revenue apart from oil?

You are looking for solutions to your problems in the wrong place, and that is you may not find it soon. How much did the ND region invest in developing the Oil resources? Easy son, even your oil is soon becoming unfashionable.

IzonOwei:
we would solve our problems devoid of all the leeches who have from inception designed nigeria to not benefit the niger delta...we dont want the chicken change that gets to the niger delta, we want full resource control...our governors have messed up in the past that doesnt mean we can't get it right as a group...but with the whole of nigeria still waiting for the oil which you said is becoming unfashionable we would retrogress more...too many distractions...

I repeat youre a fraud and not a niger deltan for not seeking trur federalism but hoping on an old slim man to get it right for you...

You want to keep being a slave,,,...castigate the niger delta leaders and fight for your rights...rather you still want to hide under the hausa umbrella...nonsense...

tbaba1234:


Devalue the currency and borrow...

That is the most likely way.

Keneking:
Where is lalasticlala sef?

Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira - is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

adconline:

FEC doesn't approve budget.. GMB is still acting like we are in a military era. Appropriation is as exclusive preserve of the NASS, so GMB can't anticipate to spend money that's not captured as an income in the budget. From N8tn to N6tn= just 25% cut without any scrutiny??! Reality is now setting in!! We going see!!!

Bevista:
Quite frankly, sometimes silence can be an effective way to hide ignorance. You can't comprehend what I'm about to write, so let me not bother.

Bevista:
You are wrong son. In theory, nothing would please me more than full resource control, but in practice I know that it will all be a sham since the governors will become local emperors looting away everything. Before you know it, the local communities will want full resource control.

There are are developed countries who attained greatness without any Natural resource, and yet there are many African countries with abundant natural resources that are still grossly underdeveloped. That should tell you where the problem & solution lies. South Sudan broke away with their oil and yet today they top the list of failed States.

Before oil, were we not all depending on other cash crops - mainly from the north & west? Even within the Oil producing states, is it all L.Gs and communities that have oil? Assuming your community belongs among those that don't have, will you consider it fair for the core oil communities to want to control everything?

WaffenSS:


Great idea.

adconline:
Dear Dr Milton Friedman Keynes,
Facts are sacrosanct, but opinions are free. Please lay out the facts without ur opinion for ignorant me to understand

Bevista:
Ok, now we are getting somewhere.

(1) Before Budget proposal is taken to NASS for approval, the Executive (FEC) will sit together and discuss it extensively to make sure all ministries are properly captured. They then approve the final document before sending it to the National Assembly.

(2) I cannot remember the government making a policy statement about proposing an N8T budget. Somebody in the cabinet may have insinuated but it wasn't a definitive policy statement

(3) Instead of trying to find straws to cling on to, you should have responded to the figures I presented in my comment. Facts are Sacred!

Your hero was a monumental failure!

adconline:

1:Needless to lecture me on budget process since my earlier statement that appropriation is a prerogative of NASS hasnt been proven wrong by you. The executive prepares the budget and it's the NASS that determines who gets what and how much. It also sets crude oil benchmark.NASS has the final say on the size of the national budget.

2: VP, Osibanjo said that 2016 budget would be N8tn

https://www.nairaland.com/2717073/fg-plans-n8tn-budget-2016

3: Your numbers are missing key ingredient= source of income" you can't spend what you don't have. You alluded in your previous post that this budget proposition lacks details as the govt hasnt clearly stated the NEW revenue stream. Until then, facts aren't on your side, but sheer speculative opinion!

https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/assets/pdf/nigerias-2015-budget.pdf
http://www.yourbudgit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-Publication-BUGET.pdf

It's beyond the realm of your subconscious existentialism to infer who might be my hero.. You mere insinuation that I speak from a position of political gravitation instead of you to enunciate your "beloved facts" to withstand any intellectual, statistical, political and peer-questioned scrutiny, is indicative of how we have raised a generation with chronic encephalon docility.

Bevista:
(1) Budget is never the prerogative of NASS, but that of the Executive. For something as sensitive as national budget, the constitution makes is necessary for NASS to review whatever the Executive has prepared and make inputs - sometimes that may result in alteration of the budget but most times they just approve it the way it comes. It's like saying that just because the President sends Ministers to NASS for approval, then Ministerial appointment is the prerogative of NASS.

(2) The VP said that they were planning to propose a budget of N7tn - N8tn. That was a statement made over a month ago. Chances are that the dynamics of what they were considering might have changed and they had to adapt to new realities. Oil price has dropped further since that time and MTN fine has also reduced by over N250bn within that period. There could be a lot more that has changed that has made it imperative to review the budget downwards. How does adaptation amount to failure - if you know anything about economic management. In any case, as I said earlier, that comment wasn't a policy statement by government.

(3) I never said the budget lacked details, I only said I am yet to see the details. As you might have been aware by now, details of the proposed budget are beginning to come out, and by the time it gets to NASS it would have been in the public domain for everyone to analyze.

(4) Your resort to verbosity in a desperate bid to appear to have superior intellect does not impress me. You can save yourself the stress and keep that for those in your league.

Sagamite:


I doubt.

I think no one should expect anything tangible from 6 months of cleaning up a cretin's 5 year mess.

Nigerian government makes money from 6 streams:

1) Oil revenue
2) VAT
3) Company Income Tax
4) Customs and Excise
5) Sale of Assets/Equity/Licences
6) Return on Equity/investments

By and large, the oil revenue forms the largest bulk of these streams. Considering the budget planning from this was pegged at a realistic, if not conservative, level of $38 per barrel, I can hardly see any error in this.

NNPC is also being cleaned up. No more selling of Nigerian assets for peanuts, oil bunking and the non-remittance of billions of oil revenue to the federal account with impunity, while the Cretin of Otuoke was shacking Orijin in Aso Rock.

(3) is likely to increase after we now have ministers. Policies would be revealed and investors would know it is a clean party they are being invited to, not the "goat must eat yam" party rot the Cretin of Otuoke was running. We are likely to see new FDI and an increase in existing FDI.

(4) was another avenue of leakages that is going to drastically improve. PMB was already cleaning that sector with the mass sack of the crooks running it. Now we will no longer have Customs men pocketing import duties and turning into Abubakar Atiku.

Mate, Nigeria had a previous budget of about $28bn. Of which (conservatively) at least 40% was being looted. Only a NSA on his own was stealing $2bn because they knew it was a Mumu that was running the country. Don't let us talk about what PDP officials were looting. I know of a PDP Chairman that was filling a private jet with millions of dollars during elections.

Despite these lootings, Nigeria was functioning without much debt. Even if PMB reduces these looting to just 10%, we will be able to manage.

Also don't forget some of these criminals, pendusky loves to worship, would be returning their loot before going to jail. That would be going into the pot too.

The Minister of State for Finance, Mr Bashir Yuguda, said on Wednesday that N522 billion was shared among the federal, states and local governments as revenue for February, 2015........ He said also, that the non-mineral revenue for February was N94.5 billion, which when compared to the N110.6 billion generated in January, showed a decrease of N16.1 billion.

FAAC: FG, states, LGs share N389.9bn as revenue for September NAN-HE-20 FG, states, LGs share N389.9bn as revenue for September FAAC Abuja, Oct. 28, 2015 (NAN). . .... She said that the country generated N213.1 billion as mineral revenue and N108.8 billion as non-mineral revenue.