Bookiemart01:


Source:


http://thenakedconvos.com/plunging-naira-before-you-blame-emefiele-look-at-yourself/

bezimo:
I was wondering. Now that oil prices are so low at $30 per barrel, the value of the Naira has depreciated to almost N300 to the dollar for the first time ever.

But When oil was been sold at an oil time high price of $140 per barrel.Why didnt the Naira appreciate to at least N100 or lesser to the dollar?

No one should tell me about the market forces of demand, supply and export.

When export value of the oil was so high why didnt the Naira gain so much.
I guess some forces didnt want naira to appreciate.

bookface:


Hmm...

Let's see how this works out.

Ban everything - then everything becomes incredibly more expensive! Think about that for a second. The current Ban is pushing inflation to crazy levels already. How would you feel if you need to buy a used laptop at 1 million naira?


There are no easy solutions. But the current approach is worse!

Emefiele should take the following steps.

First, allow a modest devalution of the naira. ---- This should allow the foreign portfolio flows that we urgently need. It would bolster the government coffers and put an end to depletion of the foreign reserve

Second, given that the step above will surely lead to an increase in inflation, he should immediately accompany it with an increase in interest rates

Third, fiscal consolidation is required in non productive sectors - cutting down salaries, laying of non productive workers etc - and simultaneously boost spending in productive sectors - like infrastructure, and agriculture.


The current approach of banning imports and drawing down on foreign reserve seems to rely on hope - hope that one day oil prices may recover. This may well be the case, but who knows? What if it is not? Then what? we draw down on the last bit of foreign reserves and we start borrowing money at incredibly high interest rates.

989900:


That is what I was saying in my earlier post.

Excess liquidity (this alone according to analysts, accounts for roughly another 30% of the devaluation of our Naira),

No power,

Importation of refined petroleum products and food are the real killers, not your designer mundanes.


P.S. Oil does not account for 90% of our revenue (I guess the OP meant Forex income -- even, that is skewed). It actually accounts for roughly 30-40% of our total income.

Bookiemart01:
My country men fit buy imported poo and urine sef

themall:
PMB is the problem...

Chukzyfcb:

Get your facts right brov! You are even wrong quoting 30-40%. Oil is our biggest source of revenue in naija currently. How can a 30-40% source of revenue be making the whole nation shiver? Uche gi o di kwa na ihe ana ako?

Bluffly:
From my point of view, I do not see the fall in crude oil price as our major problem and neither as our major source of income. In as much as we have crude for income generating purpose, what has happened to all the tax we have been generating in this country that even comes in foreign currency. Nigeria is not a country where tax is as relaxed as Saudi Arabia. Our corporate Tax is not less than 30%, where are all the revenue being generated by FIRS, Customs, FRSC, in fact, we have quite a number of Departments that collects revenue in foreign currency but they will not remit the foreign currency but rather converts to Naira, keeps the difference and remit the Naira equivalent.

Our problem is artificial and man-made. Yes, Nigeria is not doing well in terms of local production to exportation but yet we are not meant to be in this mess. We are greedy and want to be rich over night. Can someone tells me what determined dollar to be as high as 305 in the parallel market? Can someone tells me while banks rate result to as high as 305 and they buy from CBN at 199.

I believe that we are in the dark and some people are just making money from all this bullshit. In as much as I understand what balance of trade is and the relationship with exchange rate, I have come to realize that some economic theories if not most does not exist in reality but on paper.

Why is US$ still our base currency, let us look for how other currencies too will chase Naira and not US$ in the name of base currency.

In fact, one can go crazy in analyzing the situation of this country becuase of the wrong individuals we have overseeing our affairs. Lets us look for how our Naira will be cased as well.

Na wa o.

TomLepskie:
Op you ve said it all but i want to totally disagree that we ordinary Nigerians are responsible for the rot we hv found ourselves in,you actually killed it in your statement when you said(Finally let's keep letting corrupt leaders who have looted our commonwealth and shipped all the monies overseas get away because to attack them does not fit your political narrative).
Our politicians are responsible for our woes, they killed all the said industries when they killed NEPA purposely so that they can import generators and sell their diesel, they killed our refineries and built theirs abroad,they buy our crudeoil via bunkery, refine it in their refineries abroad and then sell to us at international price, they steal all the money that's meant for developmental projects and stash them in foreign banks,we ve lost values as citizens hence we even worship those rich politicians that are stealing our commonwealth,the worst of them all is the collapse of our judiciary, the politicians also killed the judiciary,with good leaders Nigeria can take up its place in 10 yrs time,even the IMF hv seen the handwriting on the wall hence they now hv special interest in Nigeria's economy,currency and budget. God's willing this Govt ll put a stop to importation of petroleum products as well as fertilizer by 2018,they are also blocking some avenues by which our money is being stolen and taken abroad, if they can guarantee 24-7 power supply by 2018,this three factors if taken care of will reduce the pressure on our currency by 70%,i thing this is why the present govt have resisted every pressure from within and outside to devalue our currency further,importation of toothpicks, boxers and some other small products that we should be manufacturing here only accounts for about 15% of pressure on the naira,the super factors militating against the naira is corruption, importation of petroleum products and NEPA, if these three factors can be taken care of,our naira can stabilize against the dollar for as long as possible.when an ordinary local govt chairman can hv as much as two hundred million dollars in his foreign account, how many local govt chairmen, chancellors, governors,deputy governors, state legislators, ministers, senators, reps,president and his vice do we have, all this people hv their advisers who hv advisers who hv foreign accounts, what of their allies.any politician that is arrested over a corruption case let us support the govt even if such person is from our village, our country ll be great again, China was once worse than Nigeria, Malaysia once looked up to Nigeria, Korea was once like this, let's even support death penalty on corruption,Nigeria spends about $15.8billion annually to import fuel and the absence of NEPA is killing our local industries ,once again if this three factors (corruption, importation of petroleum products and NEPA) can be taken care of, our currency ll stabilize.

bookface:


Hmm...

Let's see how this works out.

Ban everything - then everything becomes incredibly more expensive! Think about that for a second. The current Ban is pushing inflation to crazy levels already. How would you feel if you need to buy a used laptop at 1 million naira?


There are no easy solutions. But the current approach is worse!

Emefiele should take the following steps.

First, allow a modest devalution of the naira. ---- This should allow the foreign portfolio flows that we urgently need. It would bolster the government coffers and put an end to depletion of the foreign reserve

Second, given that the step above will surely lead to an increase in inflation, he should immediately accompany it with an increase in interest rates

Third, fiscal consolidation is required in non productive sectors - cutting down salaries, laying of non productive workers etc - and simultaneously boost spending in productive sectors - like infrastructure, and agriculture.


The current approach of banning imports and drawing down on foreign reserve seems to rely on hope - hope that one day oil prices may recover. This may well be the case, but who knows? What if it is not? Then what? we draw down on the last bit of foreign reserves and we start borrowing money at incredibly high interest rates.

989900:


While oil accounts for roughly 90% of 'government Forex earnings', it accounts for roughly 35% of our 'GDP', and averagely 40-65% of total 'government earnings' (DEPENDING ON OIL PRICES AND PRODUCTION)

Those are your facts there bro; you get the drift?

persius555:
Ban everything? Believe me, (no insults) you will make a woeful CBN governor. I am tired of commenting issues that borders our economy.
In the 80s, three things killed our economy and if we do not retrace our steps, no matter the policies we put in place we will not make progress.

1. The socio economic crisis that resulted from several military coups really did a lot of economic damages to not only our psyche but our economic value system. The well educated nigerians that would have helped the country grow had left in droves, so also did the creative minds, footballers, musicians, engineers etc. After the advent of democracy, we have not been doing what a nation like rwanda is doing, i believe its called nation building. What we did was to leave our economy in the hands of foreigner who will never love our country more than they love theirs.

2. Our in-ability as a nation to revive our power sector that went comatose in the 80s. This singular factor accounts for the dearth of 80% of our industry. We are in the 20th century for heaven"s sake. Any country in the world today with more than a 100 million people that is serious about building a local manufacturing capacity must be ready to generate no less than 30,000 MW of electricity, the least. Its a pity that a lot of people dont understand the devastating effect of not having a viable power sector. I, myself did not understand this until i ventured into the dangerous waters of " Entrepeneurship in Nigeria". In my own experience, 70% of my generated income went into providing electricity and eventually i had to call it quits. I know a lot of ignorant, block headed nigerians will come hear and say; "There are many businesses in nigeria that you can do that will not requite electricity". This is a mental psyche that an average nigerian has developed in the last three decades that has continued to hold us back.
My reply is go and tell this to the americans, japanese, chinese, indians, south africa and the rest of the world. We nigerians go online and scream "DIVERSIFICATION" as if its is suppose to be a password to freedom or something. Even if we decide to diversify to agriculture for example, do we have the capacity in terms of technology and manpower to deliver an agro allied industry that can meet local and global demand.
For heaven's sake we still operate an agricultural system that is based on subsistence farming while the world has since moved on to technologically driven system. The mining sector is not left out neither. If we are going to run a fully fledged mining system, we would still have to rely on adequate power. Mind you, this sector is heavily "electricity driven".

Below is a list of six countries, population and electricity generated


COUNTRY POPULATION (2013) ELECTRICITY (GWHr)

1. CHINA 1,362,119,434 5,649,500
2. USA 320,050,716 4,297,300
3. INDIA 1,252,139,596 1,208,400
4. JAPAN 127,143,577 1,061,200

5. SOUTH AFRICA 52,776,130 256,100

6. NIGERIA 173,615,345 25,313

7. FINLAND 5,426,323 71,200

N.B South africa is planning to invest $20 billion dollars in 10 nuclear reactors so as to increase present capacity by half in the next ten years while nigeria on the other hand is expecting the minister of power, BRF to wave his magic wand and increase capacity overnight. The earlier we realize we have work to do the earlier we move this economy forward.
Somebody should please ask OBJ how his regime squandered over $13 billion dollars on electricity we never got.

3. PATRIOTISM. The present generation has a lot to learn in this regard, that is if we actually know what is entailed. Has anyone ever asked why 90% of american movies would rather market an APPLE I PHONE, GOOGLE, CHEVROLET or FORD SUV in their movies rather than a samsung or toyota?
That is PATRIOTISM and what you will get on the other side is PATRONAGE. You dont buy it in the international market, rather its unique to every nationhood.

obailala:
I knew someone was going to jump in here and attempt to politicise this matter. Oh yes, the Naira has fallen 30% in 8 months under Buhari, but after reading that article, do you really think there is any economic magic that can be done to instantly save the naira even with oil prices presently below $30??... If with all you know already and with what you read from the article, you still think it's Buhari's policies that caused the Naira to fall 30% in 8 months, how then do you explain the fact that the Naira also fell by a similar 30% between November 2014 and May 2015, a 6 months period prior to when Buhari took over government?

I advise you just stick to the factual issues raised by the author of the article and stop trying to be politically correct.

RichYoungNigger:


Unfortunately i don't buy things or sell things in Nigeria.
Imagine if i enter naija with just $4000

989900:


Well said; do you know as at 2015, we transmit roughly the same amount of MW 1979, 1.5m population Singapore generates?

I keep on saying: of the fraudulent 40 million litres of PMS we are told we consume daily, when you take out those that are sabotaged to Benin, Cameroun, Niger and co., about half of the remaining is wasted on generators! Never mind, Emefiele says you don't need power to do agric. #mrcleueless2

Singapore, with little or no oil, refines over 1m barrels of crude everyday, and we . . . ?