@vc2007
I am sure tmoni has handful of wema,
Besides i am not sure the wema climb has started, still bought some mo last week for 9.7
But you never know,
I am looking forward to the release of results which will be anytime in the next 2 months,

You def bought lasaco on a high, if na broker do you that thing, quit taking advice from that human being b4 he finishes you

Thanx for the advice Temmie10.
Honestly this bearish run has taught me a lot of lessons.

Most of these brokers are dumber than dummies.

Hello all, i think i'm going 'bananas', my broker made me invest bigtime on soverign insurance and i bought at =N=4, it didn't even get to 4.01, its been nose diving. do u guys think i should sell and count my lose or hold on. it hurts so bad, going by fridays trading results i've lost over half a million .
My broker is telling me to hold on, he said re-capitalization bought the bear to the market, he's trying hard to assure me that theres light at the end of the tunnel. I think he's covering he's face but the pain is too much for me. Any advice/idea is will be appreciated. Thanks all.

@iceman, dnt really know what the fundamentals of that stock is but if u do nt need the money ASAP, u might want to stick in for some more time,
somebody once said on this forum "u do not make a loss/gain until u have actually sold"
i also have an issue like that in the name of CONOIL, its not been too well, but i believe one day, they would put the round pegs in the round holes and the sector would be fully liberalised,

i am not a guru or finance guy so i say its for the gurus to decide on what u shld do, maybe there are other stocks which might make up for ur perceived loss

@temmie, i got quite some WEMA,
and my broker jokingly asked "when did u become a trader",
i replied, temmie taught me so,

would hold on pertaining to diamond,
but not yet got crusader

Thanks Tmoni
I think i'll hold on for a while, might sell sometime in december, hope it goes well by then. Made profit in DSR and hopin to make a kill with IBTC ( bought at =N=3), once again , thanks Tmoni!!

Whichever way one looks at it, the truth remains that those who make a killing in this market are those who have BIG hearts and are not jittery. 'HOLD' is a very rewarding word in the stock market
Selling at a loss rarely makes sense unless you are in urgent need of that cash. Just some lesson I've learnt, sha

To all the gurus in the house, what's the take out on Lasaco insurance? Would want to know if it's a good buy, cos my stock broker is actually proposing it and I'm sort of undecided for now.

Temmie10, how are u doing today? Tmoni, u're gradually coming up as another Technical Analyst on this thread. Kudos.

Pl's i need a stock broker urgently,
xperience once n the forum should kindly get intouch with m via omomumsy@gmail.com soonest. Thanx guys

V.C.2007:

Whichever way one looks at it, the truth remains that those who make a killing in this market are those who have BIG hearts and are not jittery. 'HOLD' is a very rewarding word in the stock market
Selling at a loss rarely makes sense unless you are in urgent need of that cash. Just some lesson I've learnt, sha

HOLD is good when it is based on sound reasoning.

Why should anyone be holding to the petroleum marketing stock? For how long are you going to hold?

Oando did a PO/Rights in 2004 and the price has being dropping since then. It will make sense holding if there is potential for growth in the sector. Watch the interim result and you will see declinig returns. Margins are shrinking. Failure to deregulate is affcting them. The higher the crude oil price, teh lower the margins for them under the current scenario. With crude oil now in the $80/bbl range things are not looking good for them. For me, Total, Oando, Conoil etc should be avoided like a plague.

For me, I SELL once there is a shift in the underlying assumptions. Or else, you will continue to HOLD till you have a worthless stock. Some people are still HOLDing on to Onwuka Inter Biz, Savanna etc.

Unfortunately, most people BUY based on the herd mentality so will also have to SELL based on the same mentality. Many few people actually know what they are doing neither are they willing to learn. They all are interested in making money.

Like someone said, when every Tom, Dick and Harry is buying a stock, that is the time to sell!!!! Can't understand why some people bought Lassaco, Mutual Benefits and co at the prices that they were bought.

For those ALWASY listening to brokers, note that gain or loss, your broker will still benefit. It is your money hence get the required education. Don't allow any broker to make you lose your money.

At least, the current bearish market is providing a reality check on people. The stock market is not a gamblers den. Sorry, people are learning this the hard way.

On a lighter note, don't lose faith.

Find below an extract from an analysis posted on Pro share.
The information should guide us in dealing in the stock of Dangote group.
If the trend continues Dangote may just lose his midas touch.

Dangote Group: A business empire under threat?Posted Thursday, September 20, 2007




Dangote Group seems to be at the receiving end of some economic decisions taken by President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua’s administration. Are these threats to Aliko Dangote's business monopoly?



Alhaji Aliko Dangote, a business mogul whose resonance in business circle does not require introduction in Nigeria. His business activities in the last eight years of Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration have unarguably affected almost every family in this country in one way or the other, making him a brand in its own right.



There is no gain-saying that Aliko Dangote has become a house hold name in the Nigerian investment world. His growing business concern spreads across the West African sub-region from the Republic of Benin, through Ghana to Cote-d' Ivoire.



The Kano State born sugar merchant got his first breakthrough in 1977 at the age of 21. Today, Dangote has his hand in almost every sphere of human endeavour. He owns six companies including; Dangote Nigerian Ltd, Dangote Textiles Ltd, Dangote Holdings, Blue Star Ltd, Dansa Foods and recently the Dangote Flour Mills Factory that was established in Kano.



Business Scope, Size and Relevance

His business has transformed from its initial commodity trading into banking, agriculture, manufacturing, textile and transportation. Dangote controls 60 percent of sugar market in Nigeria today, given the heavy demand for sugar by Nigerian soft drink industry, breweries and confectionery industries. He is reputed to have good investments even in foreign based sugar refineries that supply him the product. In addition, Dangote also imports and sells rice, vegetable oil and cement.



The group's interest is diverse, but the most pronounced of which are the manufacture of fast-moving consumer foods such as sugar, flour, salt and spaghetti. There is no doubt that the group has made successful in road into the Nigerian cement industry ranging from import terminals with bagging plants to poly propylene sack factory.



Other interests include commercial real estate complexes. Recently, Dangote increased its portfolio of investments with the acquisition of oil blocs No.1, (nine percent) and No.3, (10 percent) in Nigeria/Sao-Tome Joint Development Zone in conjunction with Chevron, Texaco and EXXON-Mobil, Block I. The group purchased six percent of an oil bloc with Stat Oil, Norway and Petrobas, Brazil in the Nigeria deep water. The group has witnessed an unprecedented growth in all its business interests in recent times.



For example, since 1999, the group has moved from a basically trading concern to a manufacturing conglomerate, with over 12,000 workforces in its pay roll. Newsworld study indicates that their current investment programmes are in excess of USD I billion, a significant proportion of which is in two integrated cement plants with a total capacity of eight million metric tons annually.



With the Nigerian business terrain almost under its control, Dangote Group is expectedly getting its fair share of controversy.



“If there is one person whose meteoric forays into the commanding heights of the nation's business and at times, political terrain is stirring a national controversy, it is the shrewd corporate mogul, Aliko Dangote,” that was the view of an unnamed dispassionate commentator.



Perceptions –Government as an Advantage

Dangote has been perceived from many angles, depending on who has what to say about him. To some, he is a business man par excellence. To others especially his critics and rivals, he is merely taking advantage of his closeness to the corridors of power to buy up the nation's economic legacies at give away prices. Believed to be an ardent supporter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration, Dangote has benefited immensely from Obasanjo's economic policy. Not a few are of the opinion that Dangote's bestiality for Nigeria's patrimony was mainly driven by his closeness with the former president.



For instance, it was strongly believed by many Nigerians that Obasanjo facilitated the sale of the nation's two premier refineries at Kaduna and Port Harcourt to Blue Star Consortium at a ridiculous $720 million. However, some analysts believe that the refineries could be valued at $2 billion. Obviously, Dangote has a strong interest in Blue Star with largest share. Others who have interests in Blue Star Consortium are said to be Obasanjo's cronies. They include Chief Femi Otedola's Zenon Oil and Transactional Corporation (Transcorp), where Obasanjo is said to have about 2000 million equity shares.



Again, it took a strong government support for Dangote Group to buy and take over the management of Benue Cement Company, Gboko. Initially, when the group bidded for the purchase of the company, both Benue indigenes and the state government resisted it. Their argument was that the presence of a local management team may undermine the economic interest of the people of Benue State. Also, they argued that such local company did not possess the technical competence to revive and restore the lost glory of the company which was once the pride of the Benue people. But despite the fierce opposition, Dangote succeeded in acquiring the company through the former president's support.



Other government companies that were acquired by Dangote Group include National Sugar Company of Nigeria, NASCON and Oshogbo Steel Rolling Company.



At the last days of his administration, Obasanjo directed the Bureau of Public Enterprises, BPE, to transfer to the Dangote Group, the Federal Government's shareholding in Onigbolo Cement Factory, Benin Republic, where Nigeria has 43 percent share.



Apart from the privatisation policy, Dangote group also benefited from the controversial waiver policy introduced by Obasanjo’s administration to exempt payment of import duties and tariff for some individuals and companies in certain areas. Newsworld investigation shows that companies which got the approval of government to build cement bagging or manufacturing plants during Obasanjo's regime, enjoyed import duty exemption on the machinery imported to set up their plants including waiver on Value Added Tax, VAT. Of course, with the Construction Cement Factory at Obajana, Kogi State, Dangote group also benefited “hugely”, from the waiver policy.



Another policy that gave Dangote Group edge over their competitors was monopoly given to them by Obasanjo's government in certain key areas of the economy. Being the largest importer of the bulk cement, the group boasts of four bagging plants in the country - the Lagos Cement Terminal at Apapa Port, the Aliko Inland Terminal at Lagos, one in Onne/Port Harcourt and one in NPA Area I Port Harcourt, with a combined production of three million metric tons per annum.



With its overriding influence on the Obasanjo regime, Dangote cement always managed to attract cement import quotas of between 6.5 and nine million metric tone per annum. Keeping hold of so much import quota enabled Dangote Group to limit what was available to other operators.



Critics and Competition

Critics of Dangote's business approach have argued that the group employs bonus claims to scare new entrants and buys the government favour in order to maintain monopoly in its areas of interests.



The Director of Project, Ibeto Cement Company Ltd, Dr. Ben Aghazu captured Dangote's alleged penchance for emasculating competitors thus: “Dangote Cement did not only tyrannize other producers but also succeeded in frightening away would be new entrants into the cement industry with bogus claims. These claims included production and expansion figures that were never met but were accepted by the Obasanjo government as a basis for the issuance of import quota.”



Dangote is one of the select business cliques, directly linked with the former President. It is believed that he contributed handsomely to the political projects of the Obasanjo administration especially as a major financier of the 2003 re-election of “Baba”. He also donated huge amount towards the controversial library project built by Obasanjo while in office, and was a regular member of the president's entourage. Dangote however, gained handsomely from his investment in his friend.



But the man at the centre of the controversy, Alhaji Dangote does not see anything wrong in using government link to advance business interest. Hear him:



“Do people who accuse me of being close to the government of Obasanjo expect me to say my N0 1 enemy is government? It is not possible. There is no business that has no link with politics, none. And I challenge anybody to contradict me. Because you either say to a government in power, 'ok, fine, I am for you', or 'I am against you', obviously a right thinking business person would say, I am for you.



“Every company is government friendly, let Jim Ovia go and be the enemy of government and you see where Zenith Bank would go,” he quipped.



Dangote said that he was moved to draw closer to Obasanjo because of his business interest. He does not make pretence about that. And of course, the former President undoubtedly assisted him to attain the certain level he is operating now. “Eighty-five percent of my relationship with Obasanjo has to do with the economy of the country. Even when we sit down, 85 percent of the time is spent discussing the economy. How do we move the economy forward? And I think I have to be really grateful,” he added.



Dangote also disclosed that Obasanjo's encouragement spurred him to invest in building one of the biggest cement factories in Nigeria at Obajana, Kogi State. He argued that the decision to build the cement company at Obajana was really in national interest and the credit according to him, should go to Obasanjo.



“But for Obasanjo's encouragement and push, there is no way Obajana would have been possible at all. It was his push that made the difference. I would have made more money importing cement, because I know by cost, I would pass my cost on to the consumers. And today, freight rates from Asia are so high that it is unbelievable. People would have been paying more than N2000 per bag of cement if we were importing.”



Changing Tides or Adjustment Blues

Indications are that Dangote may not enjoy the kind of privileges, he had under Obasanjo from the new administration. In fact, the controversy which has trailed some of the companies he acquired under Obasanjo has made Dangote see the other side of government.



Although President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua has insisted that his government would not deviate from the reforms initiated by his predecessor, he however said he would follow due process and rule of law in the conduct of government business. This means, no more “business as usual” for business cronies of the government in power. That also implies end of the road for those, joining personal relationship with state policy and business opportunities.



The government’s overrule of the purchase of the Kaduna and Port Harcourt Refineries by the Blue Star Consortium, was a pointer that Yar'Adua means business. The President apparently succumbed to mounting pressure of Nigerians, especially the Nigeria Labour Congress, who cried foul over the manner in which Obasanjo hastily sold the companies to his cronies. The government has also refunded to the group, the $720 million dollars they paid for the purchase of the two refineries.



Owei Lakemfa, head of Information of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, said “Dangote and Co. were invited to buy the refineries at any amount,” adding that the sale of the two refineries was done without evaluation. Surprisingly, what was a loss to the Dangote Group became a gain for Ibeto Group. Recently, the government of Yar'Adua reopened the Ibeto Cement Company Ltd, which is operating a bagging plant in Port Harcourt.



Ibeto is also developing a five million metric tons per annum cement factory in Ebonyi State, in partnership with the government of the state. These two projects were grounded in November 2005, after only four months of operation of the bagging plants. An order by former President Obasanjo, through executive fiat on trumped-up charge of lack of proven investment in local manufacturing of cement, obviously orchestrated to favour Obasanjo's business cronies, nailed Ibeto Cement.



But the story is now different; the new government has also granted a waiver to Ibeto conglomerate to import cement.



This new development definitely is breaking the monopoly of Dangote in certain key areas of the economy. Though the group is not resting on its oars, this magazine was told that an orchestrated campaign was already on to sway the government. The presidency has, however, remained resolute.



It is not certain whether the Dangote Group would enjoy special treatment under the Yar'Adua administration.- Newsworld … By Onu Okorie with additional reports from Sunday Ogli (Makurdi) and Labaran Tijani (Lokoja)

What effect will the new policy of SEC?CBN on share verification have on the prospects for capital appreciation.
In my own view it is definitely goimg to reduce the tendecy for stocks to appreciate because with speedy allotment of shares to investors demand will match supply and therefore reduce the tendency for people to manipulate stock prices. Going forward only stocks with sound fundamentals should merit attention.

frankiriri:

What effect will the new policy of SEC?CBN on share verification have on the prospects for capital appreciation.
In my own view it is definitely goimg to reduce the tendecy for stocks to appreciate because with speedy allotment of shares to investors demand will match supply and therefore reduce the tendency for people to manipulate stock prices. Going forward only stocks with sound fundamentals should merit attention.

Shame the policy won't take effect until Dec 2008. By then, the Banks' appetite for POs would have been satiated.

pls, what is happening to dangote sugar,

price just seems to be going southwards and i just bought some units at N39,

well, we would still wait it out

New gist from the new-look Business day website suggests FBN is going to absorb N250B from the PO/rights. Should translate to ~7.7B total shares. Also claims Union wants to raise N180B!

http://businessdayonline.com/National/118.html

Tmoni:

please, what is happening to dangote sugar,

price just seems to be going southwards and i just bought some units at N39,

well, we would still wait it out

THe whole market is slow. Nothing to worry about. The pros told us September would be slow. If you really like DSR, buy some more.

easiiiiiiiiiiiimoniiiiiiiiii, i don miss u oooooo!!!!!!!! you should be banned from any further holidays.
@ wanajo, i remember u saying earlier that nigerian german is not a liquid stock which means it only responds to fundamentals,does that mean there wont be any significant price change till january?? and how do u know liquid and non liquid stocks i feel that is good knowledge so one knows when to jump into stocks instead of tieing money down.
once again, oga easi welcome back

shigidi:

easiiiiiiiiiiiimoniiiiiiiiii, i don miss u oooooo!!!!!!!! you should be banned from any further holidays.
@ wanajo, i remember u saying earlier that nigerian german is not a liquid stock which means it only responds to fundamentals,does that mean there wont be any significant price change till january?? and how do u know liquid and non liquid stocks i feel that is good knowledge so one knows when to jump into stocks instead of tieing money down.
once again, oga easi welcome back

I missed this forum as well, esp the mind-bending questions from u and Tmoni! 
NGC has only 154M shares outstanding. If you can afford 1M shares (and can find to buy), you might be able to get a seat on the board! As at YE 2005, only 5 peeps had more than 1M shares. The point is NGC trades only ~ 100k shares/day vs ~ 10M/day for the top banks. Much harder to find someone willing/able to dump/mop shares when only 100k units change hands. Leads to good price stability.

by the way, i just saw a fantastic result for bank PHB. dividend of 70k and bonus of 1 for 4. a PAT  of 7.7 billion gave it a full year eps of 1.2. expect the price to hit 35 if not closer to 40.

Easimoni, Tmoni, Temmie etc.,

Abeg I need you peoples' advice o. I just got a loan of about $10k to invest in stocks hoping for a quick return. Which stocks can you advice?

Thanks

donne4real:

Easimoni, Tmoni, Temmie etc.,

Abeg I need you peoples' advice o. I just got a loan of about $10k to invest in stocks hoping for a quick return. Which stocks can you advice?

Thanks

A loan? Hmmmmmmmm. I'd hesitate to advice people to take a loan to invest (you might have to wait longer than expected), but since you already did, put 33% each in Wema, Nig-German Chemicals and Crusader Ins. All have 100+% potential over the next 12 months.

@Easimoni

Welcome back, Needless to say you were missed.

@all
I just read japaul's prospectus. The offer looks decent enough and probably has my recommendation even though i had some minor issues with it. BUt then, there's a lot of trashy offers out there anyway. Its really looking like a case of picking the bad from the worse lots.

I noticed the company was overvalued all this while. For all the time leading to august or so when result was released, this company was a pipe dream. It was a company of almost 1.2 billion shares contrary to what the brokers, analysts, research houses were telling us about the 600m shares. I am sure the management of Japaul knew this and kept quiet, some brokers/analysts knew and happily left most of the sheepish market with silly information BUT i suspect many analysts were as misled too (like those at fsdh who still think lasaco's pe is 5!) and they in turn misled their clients. In fact shortly before the suspension, the company was trading at a forward PE of close to 40! The numbers look better now with the forecasts though. The fact that a report or data was provided by zenith securities, csl, vetiva, the nse or whatever alphabet soup does not guarantee that the data is true/correct, welcome to Nigeria.

there is still a lot of money to be made though, i just wanted to sound a note of warning to all fundamental purists

@Donne4real
Few questions before advice:
Do you have a good broker?
Is your broker guaranteed to execute your orders on the same day?
Do you have a job/other source of income that you can use to service the loan if the expected returns take longer than expected?

Hey Temmie,

Where did you get Japaul's prospectus? The one on the company's website is worrisome. It has old dates and xxxx dates.

Guys
Keep up the good work!! Welcome back easimoni, frankiriri
Can anyone give me detailed step-by-step instructions on how to transfer my shares from my uncle's name to mine and turn them over to Vetiva or some other decent broker?? So far the shares are about to be sent for verification. Should and Can I transfer them to my name before that or after? What else needs to be done? Thanks all.
One more thing, whats the final say on Japaul? Dive in or cautious buy ( TEMMIE 10 this one is for you since you've seen the prospectus)

@rezigirl, really appreciate the words, would let you know as soon as i start my hedge funds and would give you a decent hurdle rate

oga easi, welcome back ooo
i know the kids would miss you, but we have missed you enough

i would stick to DSR, jst wondering why the market is acting the way it is,

@gurus, do u think i can see stocks to loan, from the long term people aka pension trusts,
i want to see hw far i can go with "shorting stocks"
do u think its possible in Nigeria,

Banh PHB impressed me, always to use take them as a small fry ,
portfolio re-evaluation

@ALL
hi guys seems transcorp is undergoing the transfiguration of its life. Somehow it seems to be getting to its proper position.
@TEMMIE10
read the post bout investing in the petroleum sector, got me worried. Eterna oil seems to be doing well whatcha think?

jehosaphat:

Guys
Keep up the good work!! Welcome back easimoni, frankiriri
Can anyone give me detailed step-by-step instructions on how to transfer my shares from my uncle's name to mine and turn them over to Vetiva or some other decent broker?? So far the shares are about to be sent for verification. Should and Can I transfer them to my name before that or after? What else needs to be done? Thanks all.

Your best bet wil be to do a cross deal after the shares have been verified. You will pay commisions and charges based on the current market price and then settle your uncle at your agreed rate.

donne4real:

Easimoni, Tmoni, Temmie etc.,

Abeg I need you peoples' advice o. I just got a loan of about $10k to invest in stocks hoping for a quick return. Which stocks can you advice?

Thanks

In this kind of market it is best to look to other sources to repay your loan so you are not under pressure to sell your stocks. So I will advice you to work out a repayment plan that will liquidate the loan irrespective of what the market is doing.

shigidi:

easiiiiiiiiiiiimoniiiiiiiiii, i don miss u oooooo!!!!!!!! you should be banned from any further holidays.
@ wanajo, i remember u saying earlier that nigerian german is not a liquid stock which means it only responds to fundamentals,does that mean there wont be any significant price change till january?? and how do u know liquid and non liquid stocks i feel that is good knowledge so one knows when to jump into stocks instead of tieing money down.
once again, oga easi welcome back

Don't know what the price will be like in January 2008.

I am not a trader so I tend to take a long term outlook of any stock.

On Nigerian German, it was about 4.00 in June 2006. It has a consistent dividend payment history. The business is growing and they are diversifying. Even though they are listed under Chemicals and paints, they are more of an healthcare/consumer goods company. They are now oil field services. That is a goldmine especially once the crisis in the Niger Delta subside.

Now, they've not given a bonus for almost 5 years so I guess time is right for one now. Also, they've not raised moeny from the capital market though there is plan to raise money via bond issue before the end of the year.

Bought some just last month at 12.85. For me, the EPS is good. The board is stable. Shonekan has the majority share in th company. It is not liquid because the float is small. I mean except Shonekan decides to sell his own shares, the number of shareholders are small and the units available is also limited. Good thing also is that in a bearish market, NGC will hardly be affected. So it is a stable growth stock for me.

The downside is that NGC is also being used to prop up UNIC. NGC owns substantial shares in UNIC. Shonekan (Volker Securities) also own susbtantial shares in UNIC. I am not so comfortable with such arrangement. However, Shonekan like Onosode seems to abide with good corporate governance principles.

frankiriri:

In this kind of market it is best to look to other sources to repay your loan so you are not under pressure to sell your stocks. So I will advice you to work out a repayment plan that will liquidate the loan irrespective of what the market is doing.

Good advice. Hopefully his cashflow can accommodate that.

Also, he need to pick good and liquid stock or else he will get his fingers burnt.

donne4real:

Easimoni, Tmoni, Temmie etc.,

Abeg I need you peoples' advice o. I just got a loan of about $10k to invest in stocks hoping for a quick return. Which stocks can you advice?

Thanks

Also make sure the returns on your investments is more than the interest rate on the loan as you have to factor in charges and commissions etc on your stock purchase/sale. As easimoni(missed you on the forum by the way) pointed out, in 12 months` time your returns should be more than attractive. Now that you dont have to wait for 6 months+ to get your your share certificates(if you dont have a CSCS number) you can take advantage of some of the PO`s (Wema and FCMB pending spring to mind) by buying at a discount.

The gurus

No one is talking about the Japaul public offer that came out yesterday 24/9

haba roughcut, wanjo, easimoni, temmie, shidigi, frankiriri et a


plswhat is your opinion on shorting stocks in the nigerian stock exchange,
some city boys have made a killing on northern rock in the UK,

i have asked this question before about "shorting shocks"