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Economists, Lets Discuss The Brexit Event Of Today by LagosCapGroup(m): 6:34am On Jun 23, 2016 |
Today JUNE 23rd, 2016 Britain will hold a referendum on whether to remain in or leave the European Union. This will be the country’s most important vote in at least half a century. Alas, the debate has often been neither informative nor enlightening. The Economist is not neutral: we are convinced that a decision to leave (a so-called Brexit) would be bad for Britain, Europe and the world. But we also believe in the importance of objective analysis and reasoned argument. Over the past few months we have published a series of factual briefs that examine the main issues around Brexit. To help interested readers, we have now assembled all our Brexit briefs together. THE impact of leaving the European Union on Britain’s economy may be the most heated issue of all as the referendum on June 23rd approaches. Many of those who are unsure how to vote say they will decide on the basis of whether learning the EU is likely to make them better or worse off. The arguments are hard to assess. Andrew Tyrie, the Tory MP who chairs the Commons Treasury select committee, which is inquiring into the costs and benefits of EU membership, says both sides in the debate “are prepared to set aside all qualifications and restraints in the wilder claims they make.” He hopes his committee can do better, though it too is bitterly divided. Mr Tyrie notes that, when it comes to Brexit, “the central problem is that there is no counterfactual.” In October, for instance, a Bank of England study concluded that EU membership had boosted the British economy by making it more dynamic. That is hard to square with Brexiteers’ claim that membership has been damaging. Yet the cause of the new dynamism could be something unrelated: perhaps, as Eurosceptics say, the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s, lower taxes or less red tape. The missing counterfactual is even more problematic in assessing the economic effects of Brexit. Nobody can be sure what access Britain will have to the single market, what its regulatory regime and migration rules will be, or how long any of these may take to negotiate. Several teams of economists have had a go at guessing. The table shows the conclusions of six of the most comprehensive studies. The wide range of GDP predictions demonstrates how uncertain the outcome is. One thing both pro- and anti-EU voices can agree on is that the short-term impact of Brexit is likely to be negative. Uncertainty over future trade arrangements has already reduced confidence in sterling and investment could well be discouraged. The Bank of England calls Brexit the biggest risk to domestic financial stability. That Britain is running a record current-account deficit, which has to be financed by capital inflows, makes it all the more vulnerable. The longer-term effects are more controversial, although most economists reckon that they too are likely to be negative. |
Re: Economists, Lets Discuss The Brexit Event Of Today by LagosCapGroup(m): 6:39am On Jun 23, 2016 |
Consider the following: 1. Truth and lies Voters want clear facts about the European Union. They are given myths instead 2. Euroscepticism Hostility to the EU in Britain is different from anything found on the continent 3. Sovereignty Eurosceptics want to regain control—but the search for sovereignty is a delusion 4. Trade Post-Brexit Britain would probably end up with fewer and worse trade deals than it has now 5. Immigration Britain outside the European Union might not be able to stop EU migration 6. Economics In the event of Brexit, incomes might fall a little, but the risk of bigger losses is clear 7. Business Most businesses want to stay in the EU but some are cautious of saying so 8. The terms of the deal Being out of the euro and Schengen gives Britain the best of both worlds 9. The view from Europe The EU would suffer from Brexit so might not be kind to Britain afterwards 10. Finance If Britain leaves the EU, it will be hard for London to remain Europe’s financial centre 11. Security Leaving the EU could cause much collateral damage to Britain’s security 12. Agriculture Although British farmers benefit from EU funding, many support Brexit 13. Bureaucracy Brexiteers say they will scrap much EU regulation, but they may not end up doing so 14. How to leave Britain’s withdrawal process from the EU could be long and painful 15. The United Kingdom The place to fret most about after a Brexit is not Scotland but Northern Ireland 16. A multispeed EU Different countries engaging to different degrees suits Britain—and others 17. The consequences Brexiteers are deliberately vague about alternatives to EU membership. That is because most other models are unsatisfactory |
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