Today JUNE 23rd, 2016 Britain will hold a referendum on whether to remain in or
leave the European Union. This will be the country’s most important vote in
at least half a century. Alas, the debate has often been neither informative nor
enlightening. The Economist is not neutral: we are convinced that a decision to
leave (a so-called Brexit) would be bad for Britain, Europe and the world. But
we also believe in the importance of objective analysis and reasoned argument.
Over the past few months we have published a series of factual briefs that
examine the main issues around Brexit. To help interested readers, we have
now assembled all our Brexit briefs together.

THE impact of leaving the European
Union on Britain’s economy may be
the most heated issue of all as the
referendum on June 23rd approaches. Many
of those who are unsure how to vote say
they will decide on the basis of whether
learning the EU is likely to make them better
or worse off. The arguments are hard
to assess. Andrew Tyrie, the Tory MP who
chairs the Commons Treasury select committee,
which is inquiring into the costs and
benefits of EU membership, says both sides
in the debate “are prepared to set aside all
qualifications and restraints in the wilder
claims they make.” He hopes his committee
can do better, though it too is bitterly
divided.
Mr Tyrie notes that, when it comes to
Brexit, “the central problem is that there is
no counterfactual.” In October, for instance,
a Bank of England study concluded that
EU membership had boosted the British
economy by making it more dynamic. That
is hard to square with Brexiteers’ claim that
membership has been damaging. Yet the
cause of the new dynamism could be something
unrelated: perhaps, as Eurosceptics
say, the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s,
lower taxes or less red tape.
The missing counterfactual is even more
problematic in assessing the economic effects
of Brexit. Nobody can be sure what
access Britain will have to the single market,
what its regulatory regime and migration
rules will be, or how long any of these may
take to negotiate. Several teams of economists
have had a go at guessing. The table
shows the conclusions of six of the most
comprehensive studies. The wide range of
GDP predictions demonstrates how uncertain
the outcome is.
One thing both pro- and anti-EU voices
can agree on is that the short-term impact
of Brexit is likely to be negative. Uncertainty
over future trade arrangements has already
reduced confidence in sterling and investment
could well be discouraged. The Bank
of England calls Brexit the biggest risk to
domestic financial stability. That Britain is
running a record current-account deficit,
which has to be financed by capital inflows,
makes it all the more vulnerable.
The longer-term effects are more controversial,
although most economists reckon
that they too are likely to be negative.

Consider the following:

1. Truth and lies

Voters want clear facts about the European Union. They are given myths instead

2. Euroscepticism

Hostility to the EU in Britain is different from anything found on the continent

3. Sovereignty

Eurosceptics want to regain control—but the search for sovereignty is a delusion

4. Trade

Post-Brexit Britain would probably end up with fewer and worse trade deals than it has now

5. Immigration

Britain outside the European Union might not be able to stop EU migration

6. Economics

In the event of Brexit, incomes might fall a little, but the risk of bigger losses is clear

7. Business

Most businesses want to stay in the EU but some are cautious of saying so

8. The terms of the deal

Being out of the euro and Schengen gives Britain the best of both worlds

9. The view from Europe

The EU would suffer from Brexit so might not be kind to Britain afterwards

10. Finance

If Britain leaves the EU, it will be hard for London to remain Europe’s financial centre

11. Security

Leaving the EU could cause much collateral damage to Britain’s security

12. Agriculture

Although British farmers benefit from EU funding, many support Brexit

13. Bureaucracy

Brexiteers say they will scrap much EU regulation, but they may not end up doing so

14. How to leave

Britain’s withdrawal process from the EU could be long and painful

15. The United Kingdom

The place to fret most about after a Brexit is not Scotland but Northern Ireland

16. A multispeed EU

Different countries engaging to different degrees suits Britain—and others

17. The consequences

Brexiteers are deliberately vague about alternatives to EU membership. That is because most other models are unsatisfactory