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Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? - Politics - Nairaland

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Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by LRNZH(m): 7:43pm On Jul 04, 2016
I read this article by a foreign news outlet (Zero Hedge) and it opened my eyes to certain possibilities. Conspiracy theory or not, what is your take?

[size=14pt]Key Oil Upside Catalyst Gone, As Niger Delta Avengers Twitter Account Suspended[/size]

by Tyler Durden
Jul 4, 2016 9:40 AM

Over a month ago we declared, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the group that "holds the price of oil in their hands" is the quixotic, and formerly completely unknown Nigerian militant group the Niger Delta Avengers, or NDA, whose generous source of funding remains to this day unknown (although one can make some very astute assumptions as to who would benefit from the price of oil rising as a result of relentless supply disruptions).



In retrospect, our snarky take on the NDA's impact on the price of oil was not exagerated, because just a few days later Goldman said that it was the NDA's relentless and ongoing attacks on Nigerian oil infrastructure that were the biggest catalyst to not only surging supply disruptions, but also the higher price of oil.

Then, just last week, in the aftermath of the NDA going rather quiet, Goldman once again chimed in, this time predicting that the recently signed "tentative" ceasefire between the Nigerian government and the NDA could lead to downside risk to the bank's $50 target (i.e., Goldman was now axed lower):

"In a region with a history of violent interruptions, the oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta is suffering through another string of attacks by local militias. Mostly carried out by a group called the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), these attacks likely reduced crude production by mid-June by 400 kb/d in addition to 200 kb/d of non-militia related disruptions. On June 20, the government announced a 30-day ceasefire with a number of militias including the NDA. And while the NDA commented that it “does not remember having [such] an agreement”, there have been no attacks since June 16 and on Monday June 27, the government announced that production had recovered by 200 kb/d to 300 kb/d. If sustainable, this ceasefire would pave the way for higher output, with the government optimistically aiming for a return to normal production by end-July. A normalization in production, even over several more months, would create downside risk to our $50/bbl 2H16 price forecast as it would bring the global oil market close to balance over that time period."

And then, things reverted back to "normal" overnight when the far more violent NDA which we know and love, again reemerged, if only on Twitter, where the militants claimed attacks on 5 crude-pumping facilities overnight Sunday. This alleged violation prompted markets to assume that any Nigerian ceasefire, tentative or otherwise, was now null and void, and that as much as 600,000 bpd of supply would once again be curtailed, in turn sending the price of oil modestly higher.

ThisDay later reported that "the relative peace that attended the federal government’s offer of dialogue-for-peace initiative to the militant group in the Niger Delta, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), snapped at the weekend as the group resumed hostilities breaching major crude oil pipelines in parts of Delta State. The militant group yesterday said it had bombed Chevron’s two major oil wells 7 and 8 close to Abiteye flow station in Warri South West Local Government Area of the state."


Although there was no official confirmation last night, a top security source told THISDAY that the incidents occurred. “I just spoke with my men in the area and they confirmed the attack,” the source said, adding: “Preliminary investigations so far from our men in the field is that dynamite was used to blow up the facilities just like in previous attacks.”

The militant group reported through its tweeter handle late Saturday at 11:26 pm that its strike team had blown up two major crude oil trunk lines belonging to the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) close to Batan flow station in the oil-rich state.

At 11:30 pm of Saturday, the avengers also tweeted that it blew up the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Crude Oil Trunk Line to Warri Refinery at 9:15p.m on Friday.

Continuing, the group tweeted thus: “At 11:26pm on Saturday @Niger Delta Avengers blew up two NPDC major crude trunk lines close to Batan flow station in Delta state. At 1:15am on Sunday @Niger Delta Avengers blew up two major Chevron Oil Wells. WELL 7 and WELL 8 close to Abiteye flow station in Delta state.

“All Five Operations were carried out by @Niger Delta Avengers Strike Team. Well Done Soldiers.”

What is very surprising about this move is that Twitter had no problem with the NDA's account for the past 2 months when the millitants were announcing the destructive exploits on Twitter, often without official confirmation, and often resulting in spikes in crude oil (as their tweets would be without fail indicative of further Nigerian oil infrastructure damage). And yet, something changed in the past week, just days after Goldman created a narrative in which the NDA would no longer be an upside price catalyst and, if anything, lead to the unwind of the "production disruption" trade.



Why do it now? According to Bloomberg, Twitter’s press office didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment, however we will be very curious to see the official explanation as to who may have complained about the NDA's account, and just who is no longer axed in a way to benefit from further NDA-induced oil upside.

Finally, a bigger question is whether whoever is providing the funding for the NDA is about to yank it: as we noticed recently, the group's website recently was inexplicable moved from a .com to a .org website. If and when this site finally goes dark, one can make the assumption that whoever was behind the NDA has officially had enough and that the Nigerian supply disruptions are now indeed over.

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-04/key-oil-upside-catalyst-gone-niger-delta-avengers-twitter-account-suspended

cc: Lalasticlala; Mynd44
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by vedaxcool(m): 8:06pm On Jul 04, 2016
Foolish wailing zombies don't know the forces at play aimlessly celebrating stewpidity after another.

2 Likes

Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by LRNZH(m): 8:14pm On Jul 04, 2016
Who are the sponsors of the "Avengers"?

Iran, Goldman, etc,..... So many theories....

1 Like

Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by modath(f): 8:19pm On Jul 04, 2016
LRNZH,

My bros in conspiracy theory... wink

I thought i had an over active imagination but the facelessness of the " attackers" and lack of impact beyond energy down time gave me ideas too...

But how do we explain shutting down their SM page?

1 Like

Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by LRNZH(m): 8:28pm On Jul 04, 2016
modath:


LRNZH,

My bros in conspiracy theory... wink

I thought i had an over active imagination but the facelessness of the " attackers" and lack of impact beyond energy down time gave me ideas too...

But how do we explain shutting down their SM page?


Moddy Baby how have you been?

I hate to fuel assertions like this but these are not normal times. By the way, Nigeria is a seating duck for anybody with ulterior motives.

First Avengers came out so organised and strategic from day 1. No human casualties, no kidnapping for ransom. At a time when oil prices needed a big push because many global oil projects are not profitable below $50/barrel of oil. The FG pleaded and they went quiet once oil price hit $50/barrel. The FG did not behave like a ceasefire was in place. Avengers resurfaced again with venom but this time their twitter handle was suspended, their .com website was taken down.

I wish someone would crack the secrecy surrounding their sponsors just like those of Boko Haram.
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by babyfaceafrica: 8:33pm On Jul 04, 2016
Conspiracy theorist kwantinu
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Proudlyngwa(m): 8:35pm On Jul 04, 2016
Your conspiracy theory about external forces might be wrong or right.
One thing is certain, powerful internal forces are involved ,
I was once privileged to overhear some comments, which if I disclose here, it might be the last you will hear of me.
I only pray the Lord gives the C in C abundant wisdom, strength and good health to do the right things.

1 Like

Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Proudlyngwa(m): 8:42pm On Jul 04, 2016
LRNZH:


Moddy Baby how have you been?

I hate to fuel assertions like this but these are not normal times. By the way, Nigeria is a seating duck for anybody with ulterior motives.

First Avengers came out so organised from day 1. At a time when oil prices needed a big push because many global oil projects are not profitable below $50/barrel of oil. The FG pleaded and they went quiet once oil price hit $50/barrel. The FG did not behave like a ceasefire was in place. Avengers resurfaced again with venom but this time their twitter handle was suspended, their .com website was taken down.

I wish someone would crack the secrecy surrounding their sponsors just like those of Boko Haram.
Actually crude needs to be above 70 dollars per barrel for drilling to be profitable under international drilling standards.
The issue is not ,disruption in Nigerian crude being a disrupting power in global crude prices . Its about internal policy changes.
We have been shortchanged for long.
the tide has changed and some elements will not rest until we return to the old moon
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by LRNZH(m): 8:59pm On Jul 04, 2016
Proudlyngwa:

Actually crude needs to be above 70 dollars per barrel for drilling to be profitable under international drilling standards.
The issue is not ,disruption in Nigerian crude being a disrupting power in global crude prices . Its about internal policy changes.
We have been shortchanged for long.
the tide has changed and some elements will not rest until we return to the old moon

Think a bit differently. It is as if the Avengers are trying to peg Nigeria's oil production to 1M bpd. Once we go below it, they stop. We go above it, they start blowing trunk-lines up. I don't see Niger Delta struggle in this behaviour but an effort to control production from a helpless country. This is pointing fingers to an external sponsor(s).
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Proudlyngwa(m): 9:15pm On Jul 04, 2016
LRNZH:


Think a bit differently. It is as if the Avengers are trying to peg Nigeria's oil production to 1M bpd. Once we go below it, they stop. We go above it, they start blowing trunk-lines up. I don't see Niger Delta struggle in this behaviour but an effort to control production from a helpless country. This is pointing fingers to an external sponsor(s).

I am not completely ruling out external forces, or totally ruling in internal forces,
What you have to understand, is in pipeline vandalization, a lot of negative internal forces are at play.
Disbelieve this at your peril .
Community chiefs, CLO's CSO's , IOC representatives , high ranking political office holders, government officials ,security personnel's ,youth leaders, welders and fitters associations, environmental agencies and many more are all interested in the afrermath of a vandalised site.
God help the morality of this country, because even if Nigeria makes enough money for each person to get 1 million daily, believe me ,some high ranking bastarda will hijack it in our communities and give us guns to keep us busy.
Where there is no morality we are doomed
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Firefire(m): 9:36pm On Jul 04, 2016
conspirators, I dey hail oooo. grin
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by LRNZH(m): 9:40pm On Jul 04, 2016
Firefire:
conspirators, I dey hail oooo. grin

My man, you dey so?
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by thunderrider: 9:58pm On Jul 04, 2016
Conspiracy Theory??
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Firefire(m): 10:15pm On Jul 04, 2016
LRNZH:


My man, you dey so?

Oga, I dey ooooo.


Enjoying the analysis of your conspiracy theories...
Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by modath(f): 10:30pm On Jul 04, 2016
LRNZH,

Mo dey ooo, another theory that someone and chewed on for sometime till the ND govs threw amnesty from anti corruption fight into the mix is the Iran angle...

Too many theories, dammit, head fit blow.. cheesy


ProudlyNgwa,

Let me know if i need to arrange "asylum" status ooo, wink i never enjoy this life ooo... How ya doing?

Firefire,

How are you? How far with una Edo campaign? smiley

You know you can't add Tinubu's name on this thread? but as i don know you reach , you will find a way to join Wale Tinubu, then round about explore a loophole to attach Bola Ahmed.. grin

1 Like

Re: Was The Niger Delta Avengers Created To Hedge Oil Price? Is This The End? by Noneroone(m): 11:05pm On Jul 04, 2016
pls what has the suspension of their twitter account got to do with their attacks?

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