seunlayi:
I tire for this economy even buhari sef don tire, e just the form like say nothing dey happen

seunlayi:
I tire for this economy even buhari sef don tire, e just the form like say nothing dey happen

naijafresh:


Well, according to widely quoted figures from CBN we used to earn 3 billion USD a month before oil prices crashed and now we earn less than 1 Billion USD while our monthly dollar requirements are about N900 billion a month so roughly 3 billion USD against an income of less than a billion USD. I'm not sure if this accounts for all inflows or just earnings from crude.

Our reserves as at June 2016 are down to 26 billion USD from circa 40 billion USD. So we have been dipping ton our reserves. Its been quoted that if we sold dollars to meet current demand we would consume all our reserves in less than a year.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has said its foreign exchange sales to the authorised dealers, including banks and others, amounted to US$1.13 billion in May 2016, representing 2.6 per cent decline compared to the level in April 2016.

The apex bank revealed this in its just-released Economic Report for May 2016.

The report also disclosed that, foreign exchange inflows through the CBN, at US$1.51 billion, rose by 31.8 per cent, in contrast to the level in the preceding month, but fell by 13.7 per cent relative to the level at the end of the corresponding period of 2015.

According to the CBN, “The development reflected a 272.8 and 116.0 per cent rise in non-oil inflow relative to the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively. Aggregate outflows through the CBN, at US$1.71 billion, fell by 19.8 and 41.5 per cent, compared with the levels in April 2016 and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively.

“The development was driven, mainly, by the decrease in interbank sales, other official payments, and 3rd party MDA transfers. Overall, a net outflow of US$0.20 billion, was recorded through the CBN, compared with the net outflow of US$0.99 billion in the preceding month.”

Similarly, the CBN noted in the latest economic report that aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy was US$3.93 billion, in May 2016.

This, banking regulatory authority noted, represented 6.2 and 39.0 per cent, decline relative to the levels at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively.

“The development relative to the preceding month was driven by the 20.4 per cent decline in inflow through the autonomous sources. Of the total inflows, receipts through the CBN and autonomous sources accounted for 38.3 and 61.7 per cent, respectively. Non-oil sector inflows, at US$1.06 billion (27.0 per cent of the total), rose by 278.6 per cent above the level in the preceding month.

Autonomous inflows fell by 20.3 and 48.3 per cent, below the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively, and accounted for 61.8 per cent of the total,” it added. It noted that, “the average exchange rate at the inter-bank segment remained unchanged at N197.00 per US dollar, same as in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015.”

The apex bank, however, pointed that in the review month, the gross external reserves, at US$26.30 billion, declined by 1.1 per cent relative to the preceding month’s level.

Data from the CBN show that gross official reserves declined by US$150m in July on a 30-day moving average basis to US$26.2bn. The monthly average movement has been an outflow of US$410m over the past 12 months.

The slowdown in depletion in July can be attributed to lower CBN daily sales of fx, which have fallen below US$10m on occasions.

Kemi Adeosun, minister of finance, was also said to have reported to the council that the balance in the excess crude account (ECA) stood at $2,259,688,878.06 as at April 30, 2016.

It was also disclosed that the minister of finance reported to the Council that the balance in the excess crude account (ECA) by July 20, 2016, stood at $3.93 billion.

baba11:
...what i am just after is for the dollar-naira exchange rate to be between #250 or less to a dollar

989900E:


My drift too . . . that was what Emefiele told the President, which is easily doable, if the CBN can grow balls and go hard against saboteurs, hoarders, profiteers, racketeers in general.

LordAdam:


Please Mr. Economist, suggest a better monetary policy.

Since the start of the FX crisis, CBN has taken hard but valid steps to assuage the situation. It is not their fault that they are not performing any miracles. Emefiele is not a sorcerer.

The major department of the FG that can prop up the economy is the Ministry of Finance. We have an amateur there. And no body is saying anything because she is from the sophisticated tribe.

Nigeria is in a recession and the best Adeosun can tell us is that she's getting rid of ghost workers and not giving states new bail out? If NOI hadn't thought up and instituted the IPPS and Sanusi hadn't enforced BVN, would Adeosun be able to get rid of ghost workers?

Even a 2-year old kid can rid the civil service of ghost workers because these motions have already been set in play by the former administration. NOI removed tens of thousands of ghost workers, so it is a gradual process.

I'm not saying those are not important, but what Adeosun should be concerned most about is following the fiscal plan to spend our way out of this slump. They planned to spend N1.2 trillion in capital projects in 2016. It is August already, and only N200b has been disbursed.

How do you want the economy to grow and become enticing to investors if you're being a miser and not fast-tracking the process of disbursing that money? They are playing politics with the lives of 180m Nigerians. If there is no money, go and borrow. We all know the anti-corruption war is a farce and all those recovered loot sh*t only exists in the papers.

Emefiele managed a 197-199 exchange rate for up to 16 months, all this while the President was gallivanting and waiting for God knows what before assembling an economic team. When he did assemble a team, they put together a budget full of errors and drama. All these while, Emefiele was holding the fort.

After the budget was passed and the ball was in the court of Adeosun to give the economy a boost, she couldn't perform her duty. She was speaking Queen's English before and after the float happened instead of positioning the economy.

Even after the float and her inaction rendered the new policy useless, Emefiele is still buying her time with regular monetary interventions, and you still have the guts to blame Emefiele and the guys at CBN?

What da f'ck do you want from Emefiele?

Emefiele is responding to the times. If FDI had started flowing in after the float (as expected), would the CBN resume selling to the BDC's or revamping the remittance market?

This is how you guys jumped into conclusions that GEJ was doing nothing at the top. He left it for a fuckt'ard and everything went south.

Now you guys have shifted it to Emefiele, that he is doing nothing there, and so should be sacked.

Ask yourself, what exactly do you think Soludo or Sanusi would do in Emefiele's shoes?

Would Soludo or Sanusi have been able to convince Buhari to allow floating of the naira back in 2015 when he should have allowed it? Were these two not speaking with megaphones about floating/devaluation and Buhari was forming Alhaji?

Soludo and Sanusi managed Nigeria in times of plenty. Under Obasanjo, when the economy was still in shambles, USD/NGN increased from N21 to N133 (an over 600% increase) between 2000 and 2004. When Soludo entered and oil price maintained a high average, he was only able to reduce it from N133 in 2004 to 127 in 2009. Sanusi reduced from 127 in 2009 to 117 in 2014 when he left.

Soludo/Sanusi spent $20b to prop the naira during the aftermath of the financial crisis, which ended quickly after oil prices started rising. Emefiele has spent only less than $10b with prices falling and staying low for almost 2 years, and you expect the USD/NGN rate to be at 200?

Emefiele has done his best. If his best is not good enough for you, simply relocate from the country and go pay your taxes in another country.

Everyone knows the CBN is more involved in assuaging our current crisis than the FG and its moribund Ministry of Finance.

So, better sit tight and buckle your seat belt. We are in for a rough ride thanks to a dormant FG and reta.rded ministers (with Adeosun being a special case).

Pray oil price rises soon, because there is nothing Emefiele can do without corresponding input from FG to change the current trend.

We are in a recession. There is no dollars. The naira is worthless. Deal with it!

-Lord

baba11:

Do you think selling dollars to EDCs will solve our problems

stephany007:
sorry which bank please cause I was planning on doing an online transaction so I can stop if that is the rate

SLIDEwaxie:
sense is scarce... I hope ubxan pray for one...


This is the layman explanation of what happened...

1. Dollar got scarce... CBN stopped selling to BDC to save the little it had so as to service the official and important things...


2. Dollar reserve has risen because of the Diaspora who remitted more dollars because of the flexible currency the CBN adopted and now, they can be able to sell to BDCs..


How hard is that to comprehend?


I tire for wailers o

989900E:


Obviously, you barely understand the point I am driving at, and only see the part you wanna/can see.

And, if you can't decipher those basics, it's pointless . . .

naijafresh:
This is a good analysis of the presented economic information, so bottomline, we are not exactly out of dollars completely or begging for dollars. However I do wonder how much of this inflow actually penetrates the economy.

No country will take the bold step of depleting the reserves as our financial ratings will plummet when the world bank etc see what's happening and our creditors will pull the plug. However we do have the excess crude account and it should be used to bolster the economy as that's what it was set up for. We should be able to see exactly what's happening to our income by having transparency all the way.

Our government is very good at siphoning money out and stashing in foreign banks rather than putting the money where it should be in the economy and driving economic growth.

We need a robust leadership and economic policies to take us forward

Amitex:


[s]You are pointless my friend. The economy went south with baba's 1983 policies. Emefiele cannot do anything to change a hardened Buhari with his autocratic beliefs. How do you assemble a team of lawyers and amateur Accountant to manage Nigerian economy, especially after it has gone south due to 7 months of inaction? Common budget they could not prepare and you expect fiscal miracles in a recession. All the while people urged Buhari to accept deregulation he insisted on his archaic policy of pegging the Naira to dollar, which his puppet minister was here defending and you want Emefiele to do miracle when the damage has been done. You were all over the Internet defending their China. UAE, Qatar and other fruitless trips. Now you want to blame an astute banker that managed one of Nigrria's biggest bank to success. Go and tell your sponsorship that Nigeria economy is different than Ogun State. A state commissioner job is to collect from federal allocation and disburse. Any Accountant or even financial Analyst can do that, not managing a complex economy like ours. Buhari should sack Adeosun and reconstitute the economic team. This is August 2016, APC is still arguing about budget padding and you are blinded to that but you see Emefiele because he is not from the South West or the North![/s]